Wiggins Discussion thread.

[hatcher]

Yes. At the same time though, it isn't as if there's some other option open to Sky if they are serious about winning. Wiggins is at his best when there is a very steady, high, pace kept up constantly. The fact that other diesels will benefit from their work is the price they'll have to pay. So Evans and people like Nibali or Menchov, if they are in contention, will happily leave them to it. People who have to attack on the climbs to have a chance will be at even more of a disadvantage.

I don't blame Sky for following the strategy that gives them a chance to win, but as someone with no particular love or hate for Wiggins, I will be seriously annoyed if they actually manage to turn the all too few climbing stages into festivals of tedium.

Did you genuinely not enjoy the Vuelta stages where Froome and then Wiggins were drilling it up mountains, with favourites dropping off one by one from the back?

I found that far more exciting than the far more common mountain stages of one attack, 5 riders go clear, and then ride to the finish.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Did you genuinely not enjoy the Vuelta stages where Froome and then Wiggins were drilling it up mountains, with favourites dropping off one by one from the back?

I did not enjoy the performances of Froome or Cobo for reasons unrelated to this thread.

In a more general sense, no I don't find it exciting when a high steady pace is kept up on every important climb, dooming all attacks and resulting in fifteen favourites arriving together. This is even more of a problem in the Tour, with its stronger field, where the best climbers might be neutralised by those tactics but they won't be dropped.

 

[cycladianpirate]

I did not enjoy the performances of Froome or Cobo for reasons unrelated to this thread.

In a more general sense, no I don't find it exciting when a high steady pace is kept up on every important climb, dooming all attacks and resulting in fifteen favourites arriving together. This is even more of a problem in the Tour, with its stronger field, where the best climbers might be neutralised by those tactics but they won't be dropped.

Mmm, think I know where you're coming from there....

In terms of of Sky dragging the bunch up the mountains at pace, I rather meant it would play into the hands of Evans vis-a-vis his other GC rivals (in honesty, and despite the TT kms, I don't see Wiggins as a genuine contender). Essentially he'd have two teams working for him, wouldn't he?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

In terms of of Sky dragging the bunch up the mountains at pace, I rather meant it would play into the hands of Evans vis-a-vis his other GC rivals (in honesty, and despite the TT kms, I don't see Wiggins as a genuine contender). Essentially he'd have two teams working for him, wouldn't he?

I think that Wiggins is a genuine contender. Contador isn't there and Andy Schleck will be fighting against what is for him a disastrous parcours. That, in and of itself, throws things wide open.

Wiggins is the best TT specialist of the possible contenders, although there is the proviso that a long TT at the end of a GT is a different proposition from a TT in a one week race. And the TTs are really going to matter this year. When it comes to the mountains, well, clearly Wiggins isn't the very best but the very best won't be there or probably won't be GC relevant. Also, there aren't many significant climbs in the first place and the absence of bonus seconds means that his lack of a sprint won't be penalised.

It's not so much that I think that Wiggins is amazing (I don't) as that I can't really see anyone who should be that much of a dominant favourite over him. I rate Evans more highly, but he'll be a year older and himself has something of a record of getting injured or sick or losing stupid time in GTs. The same goes for Menchov, whose form is difficult to predict. Sanchez is stronger in the climbs but weaker in the TT and the TT looks likely to be the dominant discipline. Wiggins could completely collapse on a climb, could misjudge his form, could fall again, but if everything goes right for him he has to have a chance.

As for Evans, well he certainly won't be complaining about the Sky team, with them likely controlling some stages for Cavendish and others for Wiggins.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Did you genuinely not enjoy the Vuelta stages where Froome and then Wiggins were drilling it up mountains, with favourites dropping off one by one from the back?

I found that far more exciting than the far more common mountain stages of one attack, 5 riders go clear, and then ride to the finish.

Nope, UK Postal just grinding all the way up with not one attack going on is not my idea of an exciting mountain stage. Cobo was about the only person to attack on a mountain stage in that race, until he had the jersey and Sky finally had to ride from behind, which made the race much more interesting.

As long as the pace is kept so high nobody can make a decisive move off the front, we may as well be watching the 2009 Tour de Suisse, perhaps the most disappointing stage race in the history of the ProTour.

Teams' ability to act like this (it's hardly a new invention for UK Postal of course, with Astana, Discovery/USPS, Banesto, Saxo/CSC, ONCE and Saeco all doing similar things at various points) is also aided by some pretty shoddy route design in GTs of late, with only a few key climbs, and not enough difficult multi-climb stages, meaning that either earlier climbs that are not going to be decisive are soft-pedalled or earlier climbs simply don't exist (Javier Guillén I'm looking in YOUR direction here), meaning that the domestiques all make it to the final climb intact, and able to do that job of neutralising everybody. Wars of attrition are interesting up to a point, and there is definitely a place for races like that in the sport, but when every mountain stage is a war of attrition until the last kilometre, then it's a letdown (see: 2009 Vuelta. What were the most exciting stages? I'll answer that for you. Xorret del Catí, when it was too steep to control, and La Pandera, when there were actually some attacks and Valverde was dropped. Elsewhere, you had Gesink and Mosquera attacking occasionally, and nobody else).

Also, what's happened to Chris Froome? He's only had 4 race days so far, and he hasn't beaten the field by 10 minutes in any of them. Must be injured.

 

[gustienordic]

I think that Wiggins is a genuine contender. Contador isn't there and Andy Schleck will be fighting against what is for him a disastrous parcours. That, in and of itself, throws things wide open.

Wiggins is the best TT specialist of the possible contenders, although there is the proviso that a long TT at the end of a GT is a different proposition from a TT in a one week race. And the TTs are really going to matter this year. When it comes to the mountains, well, clearly Wiggins isn't the very best but the very best won't be there or probably won't be GC relevant. Also, there aren't many significant climbs in the first place and the absence of bonus seconds means that his lack of a sprint won't be penalised.

It's not so much that I think that Wiggins is amazing (I don't) as that I can't really see anyone who should be that much of a dominant favourite over him. I rate Evans more highly, but he'll be a year older and himself has something of a record of getting injured or sick or losing stupid time in GTs. The same goes for Menchov, whose form is difficult to predict. Sanchez is stronger in the climbs but weaker in the TT and the TT looks likely to be the dominant discipline. Wiggins could completely collapse on a climb, could misjudge his form, could fall again, but if everything goes right for him he has to have a chance.

As for Evans, well he certainly won't be complaining about the Sky team, with them likely controlling some stages for Cavendish and others for Wiggins.

Wiggins is certainly a contender... if you guess the top ten right now, bets are that at least two or three of them will either lose stupid time or crash out...

if our top ten right now in no particular order is:

Levi
Evans
Samu
Basso/Scarponi/Nibali (probably only 1 of these three will actually end up doing it or riding GC)
Wiggins
Menchov
Schleck?

I'm not sure who the last three will come from, but of those, Wiggins can TT much better than all except Levi and Evans, and can climb better than Menchov for sure, and possibly better than Levi... If Evans crashes or loses time, Wiggins might be the best rider.. sure he might lose 2 minutes in the MTNS total to guys like samu, but in 100km of TT he can pull that back... he's easily one of the best three TT'ers in the world.

 

[crapna]

 

[hatcher]

I did not enjoy the performances of Froome or Cobo for reasons unrelated to this thread.

In a more general sense, no I don't find it exciting when a high steady pace is kept up on every important climb, dooming all attacks and resulting in fifteen favourites arriving together. This is even more of a problem in the Tour, with its stronger field, where the best climbers might be neutralised by those tactics but they won't be dropped.

Nope, UK Postal just grinding all the way up with not one attack going on is not my idea of an exciting mountain stage. Cobo was about the only person to attack on a mountain stage in that race, until he had the jersey and Sky finally had to ride from behind, which made the race much more interesting.

For what it's worth, you both enjoyed Froome + Wiggins drilling it up La Covatilla and putting the hurt on the other contenders. 90% of GT mountain stages are dull, listless, attackless, but THAT was fantastic attacking racing.

 

[meat puppet]

"train in vain" on the ipod, im sure

 

[ferryman]

Wiggins is certainly a contender... if you guess the top ten right now, bets are that at least two or three of them will either lose stupid time or crash out...

if our top ten right now in no particular order is:

Levi
Evans
Samu
Basso/Scarponi/Nibali (probably only 1 of these three will actually end up doing it or riding GC)
Wiggins
Menchov
Schleck?

I'm not sure who the last three will come from, but of those, Wiggins can TT much better than all except Levi and Evans, and can climb better than Menchov for sure, and possibly better than Levi... If Evans crashes or loses time, Wiggins might be the best rider.. sure he might lose 2 minutes in the MTNS total to guys like samu, but in 100km of TT he can pull that back... he's easily one of the best three TT'ers in the world.

Schleck? A question mark over top ten

Valverde, Vand Den Broeck and dare I say it Gesink all strong top tenners.

I think I would just about still favour Menchov over Wiggins in the climbing stakes and also last week ITT.

 

[Richeypen]

For what it's worth, you both enjoyed Froome + Wiggins drilling it up La Covatilla and putting the hurt on the other contenders. 90% of GT mountain stages are dull, listless, attackless, but THAT was fantastic attacking racing.

Ditto

It was not like it was a US Postal borefest, it consisted of 2 riders

 

[Libertine Seguros]

For what it's worth, you both enjoyed Froome + Wiggins drilling it up La Covatilla and putting the hurt on the other contenders. 90% of GT mountain stages are dull, listless, attackless, but THAT was fantastic attacking racing.

That was pretty good; that was the kind of mountaintop that suits that kind of racing; too consistent to offer platforms for big explosive attacks, so pulverising opponents without attacking was the way to go (similarly, does Basso actually attack on Zoncolán, or just crank it up slowly until he burns everybody?). For the best recent example of how to set up a really good race in that vein, however, try Ezequiel Mosquera on Pal in 2010. The best climber in the race and the eventual winner in his wheel, but he doesn't care, he just drills it. And it backfired (as it did for Sky in retrospect on Covatilla, with Cobo going off the front to get bonus seconds; at that point Sky had distanced almost all the expected contenders, however, and nobody had any major belief Froome would join those ranks at that point given that he'd never shown proper consistency over 1 week before, let alone 3). Possibly the best climb in the world for that kind of slow grinding climbing is the Alto da Torre in Portugal; every year you get the tempo grinding reducing the bunch out more and more, then it gets inconsistent further up and you get the best of both worlds.

At that point in time, it was "wow, what a day for Froome!" We were hypothesising that he was Wiggins' man for week 2, then Lövkvist would take over as the sidekick of choice. I was even advocating Froome ride within himself and lose bucketloads of time in the ITT so he'd be fresh to help Wiggins in the steeper stuff.

 

[Angliru]

Schleck? A question mark over top ten

Valverde, Vand Den Broeck and dare I say it Gesink all strong top tenners.

I think I would just about still favour Menchov over Wiggins in the climbing stakes and also last week ITT.

Andy has to be included in the top ten, regardless of how unsuitable this particular Tour's parcours is for him.

I agree also that it's a bit too early to putting Wiggins over Menchov in the climbing department. I think that rumours of Menchov's demise (in terms of grand tour racing) are a way too premature. Wiggins is showing excellent form now but it's ONLY MARCH!

Van Den Broeck seems to improved his ITT impressively but how that translates to the pressure and endurance fest that is the Tour remains to be seen. Nevertheless he is young enough to continue to improve his overall performance in the grand tours so I'd have to include him in the top ten conversation.

Valverde was a perennial top ten performer in the grand tours and based just on that and his early season performances I'd have to give him the benefit of the doubt and have him on my top ten list.

Gesink was on an upward track compromised by his string of crashes. He'd be the only one that I'd have to have a wait and see approach due to the severity of his injuries, especially for this year. He obviously was there consistently in among the elite so he deserves consideration.

 

[Froome19]

Also, what's happened to Chris Froome? He's only had 4 race days so far, and he hasn't beaten the field by 10 minutes in any of them. Must be injured.

He had to pull out of Algarve due to a chest infection and couldnt make it back in time for Paris-Nice yet he should be back soone enough to make a good impact in the ardennes as he is already basically recovered

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He had to pull out of Algarve due to a chest infection and couldnt make it back in time for Paris-Nice yet he should be back soone enough to make a good impact in the ardennes as he is already basically recovered

Bah, that's ages away. I expect him to win Catalunya by 15 minutes and País Vasco by half an hour before then, maybe throw in Trentino or Castilla y León for good measure.

 

[Froome19]

Bah, that's ages away. I expect him to win Catalunya by 15 minutes and País Vasco by half an hour before then, maybe throw in Trentino or Castilla y León for good measure.

Yeh but he has to put on a show that he has to build up form like other normal riders.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I hope he does well, I did take a gamble on him with a cycling game where I drafted him as second choice.

So far it isn't paying off

 

[gustienordic]

Andy has to be included in the top ten, regardless of how unsuitable this particular Tour's parcours is for him.

I agree also that it's a bit too early to putting Wiggins over Menchov in the climbing department. I think that rumours of Menchov's demise (in terms of grand tour racing) are a way too premature. Wiggins is showing excellent form now but it's ONLY MARCH!

Van Den Broeck seems to improved his ITT impressively but how that translates to the pressure and endurance fest that is the Tour remains to be seen. Nevertheless he is young enough to continue to improve his overall performance in the grand tours so I'd have to include him in the top ten conversation.

Valverde was a perennial top ten performer in the grand tours and based just on that and his early season performances I'd have to give him the benefit of the doubt and have him on my top ten list.

Gesink was on an upward track compromised by his string of crashes. He'd be the only one that I'd have to have a wait and see approach due to the severity of his injuries, especially for this year. He obviously was there consistently in among the elite so he deserves consideration.

I would agree with Gesink and JVDB, but I also think there are alot of guys who are right on the edge of being top ten, who could easily be top ten if they have one good day... I put a question mark on Andy just because I think there is a possibility he might crack in the long TT...

But back to the other guys... I think Coppel, Taaramae, a Garmin rider (Hesjedal, Vandevelde, Talansky, Danielson, or Le Mevel), Horner, Janez Bracky, all have a legitimate chance at being top ten.

 

[webvan]

Wow, what an ITT, without Westra (must admit I'd never heard of him!) he would have crushed PN, dude's got class and you gotta love the sideburns ;-)

 

[CasperVg]

Wonderful ride in Paris-Nice by Wiggins. A truly respectable rider.

 

[hfer07]

Very impressive of Wiggo on how he handled impeccably this year's Paris-Nice race. I hope he continues to progress & give his best in July-because he's proved he will be a serious candidate for the Tour GC along with Evans...

 

[jens_attacks]

he really deserved it.will he go anywhere full-gas again until july?

 

[El Pistolero]

Definitely a favorite for La grande boucle, will be another boring Tour though. Besides Andy I don't see anyone capable of attacking in the mountains and stay away or at least cause some serious damage. And counting on Andy to make the Tour interesting is rather risky...

 

[Parrulo]

Definitely a favorite for La grande boucle, will be another boring Tour though. Besides Andy I don't see anyone capable of attacking in the mountains and stay away or at least cause some serious damage. And counting on Andy to make the Tour interesting is rather risky...

nibali would like to have a word with you

 

[durhamwasp]

nibali would like to have a word with you

Nibali will have to take some serious minutes in the mountains, as his TT must be worse than Andy's!

Great Paris-Nice for Wiggo, and an excellent TT today, really looking good for le Tour as long as he stays fit only Cadel can challenge him. Glad ive got 23/1 odds on him!