Will Contador Be Juiced Up Again Upon His Return

[LaFlorecita]

So you think he's still doping, but doesn't have it anymore even with the dope?

Yup it's pretty simple

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I tend to think of Alberto as a once-in-a-generation talent (that yes, has been enhanced by doping). He's either scaled back his use, or others have stepped up with something AC either doesn't have, doesn't respond to, or doesn't want to risk taking.

As for 2011 Giro, he may have had some protection from the organizers (and yes was doping at that race). I think the protection and deals that go on behind the scenes can be powerful.

Contador started winning early & therefore may well fall off early, but then some of these old guys have massive leaps in performance in their mid-30s - that seems to be a big sign towards doping. I just think he's not willing to risk it to the same level anymore.

That said, I expect lots of guys in the peloton to ramp up the programs that may have been scaled back recently. Guys aren't going to be happy getting beaten all the time - they'll go looking for their own marginal gains.

It's possible but I think for Alberto only the win counts, so if he's not doping right now I think he will in July

 

[Beech Mtn]

Yup it's pretty simple


It's possible but I think for Alberto only the win counts, so if he's not doping right now I think he will in July

To the bold- I agree, for him and lots of guys.

 

[LaFlorecita]

To the bold- I agree, for him and lots of guys.

Yes, it's a shame but also reality

 

[BYOP88]

He'll be so juiced that the fourth tier Sky climbers will take 2 minutes to get him back as opposed to the thirty seconds it would take them now.

 

[The Hitch]

What I don't get is why a life ban would prove more motivation to avoid doping than the original ban. This imo at the centre of the huge flaw in the doping discussions which is a belief that the severity of the punishment can only be judged by its value in cash and years banned. Oh look rider x got caught but only got 2 years and sold a book so it worked.

Not it ****ing didn't. You know why, because he went through a divorce, his friends turned on him and went into severe depression. Christ there is far more to all this than money and suspension tine. When athletes answer polls saying they would be willing to die to get a gold medal, is it because they think their families will get major life insurance payout upon their death?

No, what you guys aren't taking into account is that there's far more to this doping thing.

Contador in 2010 was a 3 time tour de France winner and on his way to being unanimously regarded as the best gt rider in decades.

Now there are people who because they are anti doping or because their favorite riders ride against Contador will never accept him as anything less than the devil. People spit on him on the roads, in every interview he does the doping issue hangs over him causing tension.

You really think Contador has more to lose in a life ban than he did the first time? To me it's a no contest. Loss of reputation and being forever known as a doper>>>> life ban.

The second is merely a continuation of the first and can even be a blessing as it can lead to acceptance and honesty.

So imo your theory fails beach mountain in that Contador will have had more to lose the first time than the second time so it can't be a reason why he stopped doping. If he even has which I doubt to start with.

 

[Beech Mtn]

Hitch, I think the big deterrent with a life ban is not so much the money as the never being able to race again. I think a lot of these guys LIVE to race.

I don't think the guys that tell the truth do so because they need money from a book deal. I think it's more that it kills them not being able to race again, while the rest of the dirty bunch keeps on racing. The hypocrisy of the UCI/feds/officials/etc. At that point, telling the truth is maybe the only way to stay sane.

As for Contador, my opinion is that he's on a non-protected team and has been trying to ride clean or cleaner. As I said earlier, I don't think that will last much longer.

As for the original ban - I doubt he ever expected to get caught. Everybody was doing it, very few got caught. Now that AC has been caught, the whole paradigm has shifted. He knows he's not untouchable anymore. So he's been more careful - so far.

 

[Bratam]

It's my opinion that we are now seeing a clean or much cleaner Contador. Still has the kick, but can't make it stick. I think, given his ban, he's not willing to risk doping to the degree he could have done in the past. Can't risk a life ban, going through another doping scandal, tossing himself and his family into another media storm, etc.

I agree with these comments. Someone else mentioned he has still got the kick, but he cannot make it stick like he used to. You only have to look at his performance in the 2011 TDF and 2012 Vuelta to see that Contador is a clear step down from his PED fueled days. He will have plenty or serious GT challengers from hereon in IMO.

Perhaps as he get closer to mid 30's he may just go for broke and start taking PED's again when he has nothing to lose. Like Vini may have done at the Olympics.

 

[Parrot23]

I don't believe finishing podium in races like T-A is possible without doping when his previous performances were on a huge doping program. Anyway the tour will tell everything, without doping or with very little doping I think he'll barely finish top 10.

By the way this also doesn't make sense with the 2011 Giro in mind.

I think he is just too old, I guess his peak year was 2009. It's only normal that he starts declining now. (and yes for Alberto only #1 is good, if he consistently can't come #1 he sucks. So yes all is lost, he is not the same rider anymore and it's sad but that's the way it is)

Can't believe it, LaFlorecita. You a fan of FroomeDawg now, or being facetious?

Still think he can win; just has to be more selective and stop the habit of multiple attacks (Carmichael has a great analysis--forgotten where--of physiological costs of multiple attacks). Do one big attack and TT really well. Kreuzinger looks key.

 

[The Hitch]

I agree with these comments. Someone else mentioned he has still got the kick, but he cannot make it stick like he used to. You only have to look at his performance in the 2011 TDF and 2012 Vuelta to see that Contador is a clear step down from his PED fueled days. He will have plenty or serious GT challengers from hereon in IMO.

Perhaps as he get closer to mid 30's he may just go for broke and start taking PED's again when he has nothing to lose. Like Vini may have done at the Olympics.

Thats a strange comment.

Even leaving aside the childlike idealism of the comment, - Ozzzie hero Evans (hooray, im ozzie), beats evil Spanish doper Contador (boo, not ozzie) because evil doper stops doping so superclean ozzie wins (hooray, go ozzies)

There was a little race called the 2011 Giro which was the hardest grand tour in decades, which Contador dominated.

So im struggling to see your logic here.

Are you saying Contador was clean for 2011? Why did he beat Nibali like a Piniata in the Giro for 6 minutes while soft peddaling then?

Also what new information do you have on fatigue that the rest of us dont have, that leads you to believe that riding and winning the most brutal grand tour since the interwar period, a month before the Tour de France, would have absolutely no effect on Tour form and preparation?


Also, why would Vino dope and Contador not. Vino didnt get caught at the olympics, so whats stopping others?

 

[Merckx index]

I must be way, way behind the times, because when I saw Flor’s post saying that Bert is a doper, I was certain that someone must have hacked into her account. And she’s now a Froome fan? When did this sea change in the world order occur? And what instigated it? Flor, are you just a fair weather fan?

In any case, I think it’s premature to say that Contador is finished as a rider capable of winning GTs. There seems to be a long-standing myth that he has always been a dominant rider, and therefore if he isn’t dominating now, he must be declining and/or doping less. It’s true that he used to win just about any and every stage race that he ever entered, so in comparison to that, his form does look poorer now. But his record in GTs is very uneven. Of the seven GTs he originally won (including the two he later lost when he was sanctioned), in only two of them was he clearly the best rider: the 2009 TDF and the 2011 Giro. Three of the other five were won by less than a minute, making them among the closest GTs in history (has any other rider in history won three GT’s by less than a minute?). He won the other two, the 2008 Giro and 2012 Vuelta, without winning a single stage, which is also quite unusual (has any other rider in history won two GTs in that manner?). The 2008 Giro was almost dead-even till the final ITT; in the Vuelta, it took an escape on a late mountain stage to get him the victory. That Vuelta, his first GT coming back from the sanction, is now part of the evidence people are using to argue that he is not as good as he was prior to the sanction. But his performance there, when he probably wasn't 100% after the long racing layoff, was no worse than in some other GTs. As Ferm notes, he didn’t look so hot in the 2010 TDF, when he should have been at the peak of his career.

So I wouldn’t count out Contador just yet. The record shows that he quite frequently is not the strongest rider in the race, and yet is still able to win. Like a pitcher who can still get batters out when he loses his fastball, he is dangerous even if he isn’t the best climber or the best TTer.

And I think it's too early to say that his recent performance is the best he's now capable of. Many multiple GT winners, e.g., Hinault and Fignon, had poor years mixed in with great years; just because Contador looked unbeatable back in the 2001 Giro doesn't mean that he would always be capable of riding at that level, and that therefore we have to look for some explanation. He certainly is not at the age where one would expect to see a natural decline. It could be that he's doping less--most riders do worse after they come back from sanctions--but I’ve never been a fan of these claims that one rider or one team has a much better doping program than another. Unless Contador is so terrified of the possibility of getting busted again that he's off everything, I would be very surprised to learn that other riders have a significant doping advantage over him.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't believe finishing podium in races like T-A is possible without doping when his previous performances were on a huge doping program. Anyway the tour will tell everything, without doping or with very little doping I think he'll barely finish top 10.

By the way this also doesn't make sense with the 2011 Giro in mind.

I think he is just too old, I guess his peak year was 2009. It's only normal that he starts declining now. (and yes for Alberto only #1 is good, if he consistently can't come #1 he sucks. So yes all is lost, he is not the same rider anymore and it's sad but that's the way it is)

He's younger than Wiggins, Evans, Valverde, Rodriguez, Cobo, Hesjedal..?

 

[Miburo]

I must be way, way behind the times, because when I saw Flor’s post saying that Bert is a doper, I was certain that someone must have hacked into her account. And she’s now a Froome fan? When did this sea change in the world order occur? And what instigated it? Flor, are you just a fair weather fan?

In any case, I think it’s premature to say that Contador is finished as a rider capable of winning GTs. There seems to be a long-standing myth that he has always been a dominant rider, and therefore if he isn’t dominating now, he must be declining and/or doping less. It’s true that he used to win just about any and every stage race that he ever entered, so in comparison to that, his form does look poorer now. But his record in GTs is very uneven. Of the seven GTs he originally won (including the two he later lost when he was sanctioned), in only two of them was he clearly the best rider: the 2009 TDF and the 2011 Giro. Three of the other five were won by less than a minute, making them among the closest GTs in history (has any other rider in history won three GT’s by less than a minute?). He won the other two, the 2008 Giro and 2012 Vuelta, without winning a single stage, which is also quite unusual (has any other rider in history won two GTs in that manner?). The 2008 Giro was almost dead-even till the final ITT; in the Vuelta, it took an escape on a late mountain stage to get him the victory. That Vuelta, his first GT coming back from the sanction, is now part of the evidence people are using to argue that he is not as good as he was prior to the sanction. But his performance there, when he probably wasn't 100% after the long racing layoff, was no worse than in some other GTs. As Ferm notes, he didn’t look so hot in the 2010 TDF, when he should have been at the peak of his career.

So I wouldn’t count out Contador just yet. The record shows that he quite frequently is not the strongest rider in the race, and yet is still able to win. Like a pitcher who can still get batters out when he loses his fastball, he is dangerous even if he isn’t the best climber or the best TTer.

And I think it's too early to say that his recent performance is the best he's now capable of. Many multiple GT winners, e.g., Hinault and Fignon, had poor years mixed in with great years; just because Contador looked unbeatable back in the 2001 Giro doesn't mean that he would always be capable of riding at that level, and that therefore we have to look for some explanation. He certainly is not at the age where one would expect to see a natural decline. It could be that he's doping less--most riders do worse after they come back from sanctions--but I’ve never been a fan of these claims that one rider or one team has a much better doping program than another. Unless Contador is so terrified of the possibility of getting busted again that he's off everything, I would be very surprised to learn that other riders have a significant doping advantage over him.

He won a stage in the vuelta 2012.

But you're right, Contador has this thing where he always somehows manages to win. You can call it luck or greatness. I go for the second.

The manner he won the giro of '08 was imo the most impressive one. Against a super dope Ricco he held his own. Ok he lost some time but on the mortirolo he was there.

When it counts Contador is there.

There's no reason for me to not believe that Contador uses the same dope as in 2011. Nothing changed since then. 2009 is a different story but not 2011.

I think he can still get that 2011-level. Contador himself said that he even wants to be better than he was in the giro.

It would pretty *** to say that when you stopped the dope assuming he was doping in that giro, right?

 

[Miburo]

He's younger than Wiggins, Evans, Valverde, Rodriguez, Cobo, Hesjedal..?

Are you trying to have a discussion with laflo?

She'll say Contador already performed when he was 24.

You can bring up Valverde but she'll just ignore that

I think Contador made a wise decision to always stop racing after the tour. That will pay off.

 

[IndianCyclist]

In the races we have seen uptill now, it looks like Contador is not performing to his usual standards and other riders are catching him. I suspect the reasons to be these.
1) Definitely not juiced up as before ( less or none) especially when he considers the case of what happened with "Invincible Armstrong"
2) He has more relative race weight than Froome ( we know the Sky strategy LEAN & MEAN)
3) The Sky think tank have got the measure of Contador. Keep the Pace high ~450W which limits attacks. If he attacks 6-7 km from finish, he will be caught 1-2 km before the finish and his goose is cooked & the race is lost. With this strategy, the competitors have the energy for only 1-2 attacks. No more legendary ferocious attacks far out from the finish. I am predicting that the most of the races will become more like mountain sprints with attacks only from less than 3 km from the finish probably even only in the last kilometer.

 

[Carstenbf]

No more legendary ferocious attacks far out from the finish.

Funny, that's exactly the way to deal with the Sky train imo. Once more into the breach!

 

[The Hitch]

3) The Sky think tank have got the measure of Contador. Keep the Pace high ~450W which limits attacks. If he attacks 6-7 km from finish, he will be caught 1-2 km before the finish and his goose is cooked & the race is lost. With this strategy, the competitors have the energy for only 1-2 attacks. No more legendary ferocious attacks far out from the finish. I am predicting that the most of the races will become more like mountain sprints with attacks only from less than 3 km from the finish probably even only in the last kilometer.

Think tank?

How comes no other team has 4 domestiques that can smash 450 watts on mountains. Every other team has 0-1 riders who can stick with Contador up a mountain, sky have about 7 (though not all start the race) and it's because of some think tank. Lol.

 

[The Hitch]

He won a stage in the vuelta 2012.

yeah but not at the 2010 tour so mi is right just got the gts mixed up.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Are you trying to have a discussion with laflo?

She'll say Contador already performed when he was 24.

You can bring up Valverde but she'll just ignore that

I think Contador made a wise decision to always stop racing after the tour. That will pay off.

Winning Paris Nice and the Tour is not performing?

 

[LaFlorecita]

He's younger than Wiggins, Evans, Valverde, Rodriguez, Cobo, Hesjedal..?

But every rider is different. Some riders peak earlier than others.

 

[Miburo]

Winning Paris Nice and the Tour is not performing?

What about Valverde?

 

[Bicycle]

But every rider is different. Some riders peak earlier than others.

Largely depending upon when they have their most sophisticated doping regime.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What about Valverde?

? Not sure I understand

 

[Hugh Januss]

Think tank?

How comes no other team has 4 domestiques that can smash 450 watts on mountains. Every other team has 0-1 riders who can stick with Contador up a mountain, sky have about 7 (though not all start the race) and it's because of some think tank. Lol.

Yes, I believe the inner workings of that "think tank" have been dissected in the another thread.

 

[maxmartin]

he needs to, otherwise there is no way to beat SKY riders

 

[Lanark]

He probably skipped the Crit International after he saw in the Tirreno that he's going to need an extra blood bag in the Tour, and extracted it this week. Dertie can't be happy with what he saw today.