Will Wiggins Still Win the Giro?

[contessador]

What are the chances of Wiggo going on a long-range attack on a mountain stage?

If he did that, I might have to cheer for him, maybe, (a little).

So far, this Giro has been better than I expected and it is far from over!

 

[Ferminal]

I agree it's very unlikely, but to play devil's advocate, how much time do you think he gave away in the corners today?

No benchmark to really know how to quantify, but I saw several where he was so agonisingly slow I wouldn't be shocked if he gave away a minute.

No point trying to analyse the differences in that section. Wiggins took one minute on them or whatever it was over the section which included 20km of flat. That is not a hopeless effort. He could feasibly improve a bit in form and still take up to 30 seconds in the MTT. But to win they will need to make the race somewhere and he will have to be up to the challenge.

 

[Afrank]

What are the chances of Wiggo going on a long-range attack on a mountain stage?

If he did that, I might have to cheer for him, maybe, (a little).

So far, this Giro has been better than I expected and it is far from over!

Never gonna happen.

 

[thehog]

Never gonna happen.

Used to happen when he was a groupetto rider

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

No point trying to analyse the differences in that section. Wiggins took one minute on them or whatever it was over the section which included 20km of flat. That is not a hopeless effort. He could feasibly improve a bit in form and still take up to 30 seconds in the MTT. But to win they will need to make the race somewhere and he will have to be up to the challenge.

The point is to point out that the headline time different Evansfan was using were not truly representative of the TT, if you are trying to use the TT as a proxy for 'leg strength', given Wiggins gave away a shedload of time from girly free wheeling, and won it back by pedaling on the flat.

It's pretty clear to everyone Wiggins only wins by taking time in the mountains - I'm just talking scenarios on how that might or might not happen and the wider consequences for the race on whether there is, or is not a sky train.

 

[thehog]

Whatever comes from this, it will be interesting to see, because this is the first time that we've seen the new-look Wiggins have to race from behind in a targeted race (I only half-count the 2011 Vuelta because of Froome, but if you want to include that it's still the first time in a year and a half, and a lot has happened to his palmarès, his self-belief, his ego and his team's standing in the sport in the intervening period), so how he reacts will be very interesting. That he's 1'16 back after a week is surprising, but nevertheless it is nothing like as apocalyptic as you might guess from some people's reactions.

It's more the way he looks than the time deficit.

If he won the Giro by braking to a crawl at every corner then I'll give up watching cycling.

So far he doesn't deserve to win.

Contrast him with Nibs and Evans. They've shown up trying to win not waiting for their teams to TTT to the end of the race.

Wiggins is scared. He can't control the race going downhill. And that worries him. You can't be scared of falling off. You don't win races like that.

 

[airstream]

The only Wiggo's chance is that he's really been sick during this week that caused numerous losses, otherwise... Surely I exclude some grandiose crises that can happen to anyone on the climbs in theory.

 

[Jelantik]

The race is still up for grabs as the mountains are still an unknown. But if Wiggins starts leaking time and bonuses to Nibali and co it's hard to see him winning even if he does a good second TT.

yeah.. but what goes up must goes down. And if there's rain involves... pffffff... we all saw how wiggins handled it before. That's why he is where he is now.

 

[Miburo]

The only Wiggo's chance is that he's really been sick during this week that caused numerous losses, otherwise... Surely I exclude some grandiose crises that can happen to anyone on the climbs in theory.

Nibali and evans are not the most consistent climbers, so not unlikely at all.

 

[airstream]

Nibali and evans are not the most consistent climbers, so not unlikely at all.

Surely, many things can happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see miraculously prepared climber Uran, not like Froome but on the level of 3-4 best in the mountains. It can be enough to gain something on one of MTFs. Uran looked quite poorly so far this season, so Sky obviously planned his peak for the Giro. Though, Sir's form brings too many questions.

 

[vrusimov]

The point is to point out that the headline time different Evansfan was using were not truly representative of the TT, if you are trying to use the TT as a proxy for 'leg strength', given Wiggins gave away a shedload of time from girly free wheeling, and won it back by pedaling on the flat.

It's pretty clear to everyone Wiggins only wins by taking time in the mountains - I'm just talking scenarios on how that might or might not happen and the wider consequences for the race on whether there is, or is not a sky train.

This seems correct...Wiggins will not only have to master the uphills but harrowing descents as well. Nibali seems rather fearless even though he has himself crashed. This course just might not totally suit Wiggins. There might just be too much climbing [and descending for that matter]. You can't be tentative in the mountains, uphill or downhill. He proves his strength on the flats of course, but the Giro is not the Tour. The mountain TT will tell us a bit more, but he only put :11 seconds into Nibali on a longish course that favored him more. Nearly 80 minutes of effort with not much to show for it but par at best. He did have a mechanical but even so, Nibali would still be in the jersey tonight.

In any event, todays performance does'nt lend validity to his reports of record wattages. Granted Dowsett could conserve himself over the first week with no obvious GC ambitions, considerable damage to Nibali was anticipated and now that has been totally defenestrated by today's results. Wiggins has form, but is it enough, because the Giro did'nt "really" start today. The real carnage is yet to come.

 

[hfer07]

NO

His possibilities to win aren't there anymore.
Tomorrow's ITT is not 100% suitable for Wiggo to take minutes over the competition due to its technicality, with 3/4 of the length filled with many turns & constant change in gradients.

And i'm not even including the "RAIN FACTOR" plus the damage he's suffered today due to his crashes....

Apart from that-since Wiggo was basically depending on the ITT to win Il Giro-which won't happen-and considering how SKY tactics are working- they have just made the same mistake of the 11 Vuelta where another rider should have been supported to fight for the overall, but Wiggo being option numero uno won't permit it & it will be too late to switch roles afterwards.....

Folks: there you have it.

The only way Wiggo "might" get to fight for pink is IF Nibali falters extremely bad during his "one bad day" he usually has-but then again- So does Wiggo have the same problem.

Folks are blinded by the so called "mountain train" which won't happen- Different mountains-different gradient changes-not suitiable for the Sky modus operandi-even more now that Wiggo's weakness has been exposed wide open in the descends-the teams are going to hammer them down so SKY must play catch up & burn the riders......

Good try Wiggins anyways..

 

[airstream]

Could you explain how control at 7% and 9% climbs differ?

 

[Carols]

Whatever comes from this, it will be interesting to see, because this is the first time that we've seen the new-look Wiggins have to race from behind in a targeted race (I only half-count the 2011 Vuelta because of Froome, but if you want to include that it's still the first time in a year and a half, and a lot has happened to his palmarès, his self-belief, his ego and his team's standing in the sport in the intervening period), so how he reacts will be very interesting. That he's 1'16 back after a week is surprising, but nevertheless it is nothing like as apocalyptic as you might guess from some people's reactions.

The reactions are because many, including myself, thought he would be up by 2+ minutes right now, not 1+ mins down.

He is by no means our of the game yet....unless his confidence has taken a big blow and it is his mind that is the issue. I thought it was legs today until the final climb; the engine looked okay.

The game has changed and we will see what Sky and Wiggins can do to turn this around, facing adversity. He will either step up like a champion or not...2 weeks of racing yet to go!

 

[hfer07]

Could you explain how control at 7% and 9% climbs differ?

Dude- is not the incline/gradiant alone - is the amount of changes happening during the overall length- Giro climbs are longer, steeper-with more turns having those nasty hairpins of 16 plus percent & uneven by nature than Tour climbs where Wiggo thrives-plus add how "narrow" the roads are in Italy & sometimes the tarmac surface changes too...

Wiggo may send Uran & Henao to "killin' it" on Tempo, but because of the things that I already mention- they won't be able to sustain a "constant pace" without either burning themselves & letting Wiggo alone- or the other way around....
the key for those climbs is to be "trained & accustomed " to them.

 

[Netserk]

Could you explain how control at 7% and 9% climbs differ?

Could you explain how control at 3% and 13% climbs differ?

 

[Richeypen]

Could you explain how control at 3% and 13% climbs differ?

Depends on the quality of the tarmac

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Wigan won the FA cup so cycling wigans will win ll Giro.

 

[jens_attacks]

well it seems he will have to attack on galiber after all hehe

 

[ILovecycling]

The best he can do is give colombians a free role to ride for podium

 

[Angliru]

If you include the Trentino, that's at least the third time Wiggins has had to change bikes in 10 days. Whoever else is at Sky next year, it won't be Pinarello.

But only doing 10 or so days of racing prior to a GT looks even stupider in retorspect. Really hope Wiggins doesn't muck Froome about with the Tour leadership now

Since when do bicycle frameset makers have anything to do with faulty shifters/mechanicals and flat tires?

 

[thehog]

Since when do bicycle frameset makers have anything to do with faulty shifters/mechanicals and flat tires?

Mechanic didn't wash his hands.

 

[Carols]

mechanic didn't wash his hands.

rotflmao!!!!!

 

[Jelantik]

But only doing 10 or so days of racing prior to a GT looks even stupider in retorspect. Really hope Wiggins doesn't muck Froome about with the Tour leadership now

He shouldn't have started that talk before he finished the Giro in the first place. Now, walk the walk, talk the talk wiggins!!

 

[maxmartin]

If you include the Trentino, that's at least the third time Wiggins has had to change bikes in 10 days. Whoever else is at Sky next year, it won't be Pinarello.

But only doing 10 or so days of racing prior to a GT looks even stupider in retorspect. Really hope Wiggins doesn't muck Froome about with the Tour leadership now

using Giro as training race, totally make sense for Wiggins