World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28

[Netserk]

How much of that is tactical rather than Roglic being legit the best of the rest?

80-90 %

 

[Unchained]

Everyone will need a good poker face if someone like Healy, Roglic, Ciccone, Morgado jumps will Remco and Pogacar respect early moves and see them as realistic threats.. Carapaz, Ayuso, Del Toro are not going to be allowed to roll off and with Pidcock's form none of the favorites are going to loosen his leash..A real chance for someone to try to go off..maybe trade team alliances will play major role but I don't see anyone helping Pogacar or Remco to chase anything. You are not going to see organized efforts to chase stuff.. You have riders like Plapp that can jump and he doesn't command immediate respect.. Vine is marked at this point he won't be given any freedom.. Del Toro is semi doomed also if he tries his proven technique this year, attacking with @35-40 k to go, Pogacar, Remco, Vine, Carapaz, Roglic are not same guys he was beating up in Italy for 5 or 6 races. Hirschi, while not horrible is due for something.This race was a good fit for Matteo Jorgenson

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For a podium spot? No.

To beat Pogi? Yes.

Yup. I could imagine a scenario of Rogla being the strongest of some breakaway group plus Pogi (if not on his best day) being a super-heavy anchor to Remco and co.

 

[Red Rick]

Yup. I could imagine a scenario of Rogla being the strongest of some breakaway group plus Pogi (if not on his best day) being a super-heavy anchor to Remco and co.

Pogacar is not gonna be an anchor if Roglic isn't going solo. And even if Roglic were to go away solo, there would likely be a moment Pogacar just does a half acceleration on the cobbled climb to test if everyone else is dead, and then the answer is gonna be yes, and he's just gonna catch Roglic, maybe take him along for a little bit if Roglic is lucky and if the drinks are on Rogla that evening, and then he's gonna drop Roglic.

To me the scenario of Pogacar losing is mostly attacking stupidly early and collapsing, and Roglic' most likely role is to be the anchor.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Yup. I could imagine a scenario of Rogla being the strongest of some breakaway group plus Pogi (if not on his best day) being a super-heavy anchor to Remco and co.

If that happens I will have egg in my face. I didn't include him in my top 15!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is not gonna be an anchor if Roglic isn't going solo. And even if Roglic were to go away solo, there would likely be a moment Pogacar just does a half acceleration on the cobbled climb to test if everyone else is dead, and then the answer is gonna be yes, and he's just gonna catch Roglic, maybe take him along for a little bit if Roglic is lucky and if the drinks are on Rogla that evening, and then he's gonna drop Roglic.

To me the scenario of Pogacar losing is mostly attacking stupidly early and collapsing, and Roglic' most likely role is to be the anchor.

Pogacar would have to be not at his best but good enough to hold on to the chasing group (and potentially smoke them during the sprint).

 

[Berniece]

Everyone will need a good poker face if someone like Healy, Roglic, Ciccone, Morgado jumps will Remco and Pogacar respect early moves and see them as realistic threats.. Carapaz, Ayuso, Del Toro are not going to be allowed to roll off and with Pidcock's form none of the favorites are going to loosen his leash..A real chance for someone to try to go off..maybe trade team alliances will play major role but I don't see anyone helping Pogacar or Remco to chase anything. You are not going to see organized efforts to chase stuff.. You have riders like Plapp that can jump and he doesn't command immediate respect.. Vine is marked at this point he won't be given any freedom.. Del Toro is semi doomed also if he tries his proven technique this year, attacking with @35-40 k to go, Pogacar, Remco, Vine, Carapaz, Roglic are not same guys he was beating up in Italy for 5 or 6 races. Hirschi, while not horrible is due for something.This race was a good fit for Matteo Jorgenson

What are early moves? How far from the finish? And where is the Belgian national team? I expect them to keep any attack close together with some Slovenians

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Agree on Pidcock form and palmares. Vine looks really strong right now is all I’m saying. I would think he bears watching/marking as much as anyone.

Vine has a grand total of 5 UCI points in his entire career, on stages or races over 200km.

 

[red_flanders]

Vine has a grand total of 5 UCI points in his entire career, on stages or races over 200km.

Very good point. I guess I'd modify my comments to say he bears watching...until he doesn't.

 

[Red Rick]

Vine has a grand total of 5 UCI points in his entire career, on stages or races over 200km.

How do you even find that quickly?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

TBH, I'm not sure how good his current base is for a race with 5500 vertical meters. He could distance the rest or not.

If Pogacar is under the weather the race is more open. I think then there are a few guys capable of winning it (Evenepoel heading the list but not necessarily an overwhelming favourite).

I feel he is in better shape than he was late 2021 when he still rode a very strong WCC RR after a comparably difficult season to this year (also after a rushed winter rehab back then) and better than it was last year, after little rest and recovery following a long intense period from Dauphiné to Olympics. If he is anything close to on form, he is the overwhelming favorite in absence of Pogacar.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How do you even find that quickly?

Results for Jay Vine

Career results for Jay Vine with filter options on distance, date, type of race and vertical meters.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Cycling111]

Vine has a grand total of 5 UCI points in his entire career, on stages or races over 200km.

How many Monuments has he competed in? I don't remember him competing in any Monuments. Maybe in Lombardia but as a domestique.

He was in the Zurich breakaway last year.

It would be interesting to see Vingegaard's statistics in races over 250 kilometers.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How many Monuments has he competed in? I don't remember him competing in any Monuments. Maybe in Lombardia but as a domestique.

He was in the Zurich breakaway last year.

It would be interesting to see Vingegaard's statistics in races over 250 kilometers.

Vingegaard is also overrated in that regard. Longest race he has won was that TDF stage last year.

Races over 200k
Vingegaard won 1 out of 60 (longest 211 km)
Evenepoel won 11 out of 63 (longest 272 km)
Pogacar won 21 out of 82 (longest 273.9 km)

 

[HashRouge]

I agree with your second paragraph but regarding your first paragraph, aren't we starting to overestimate the cobbled climb a bit because of the TT races? I mean, doing a cobbled climb on a stiff TT bike is very different from doing it on a road bike I would think. Also, for the TT Evenepoel had a single 62 chainring which they knew was a slight risk because if he ran out of power it would be too big a gear to overcome the climb. On the pictures you could see he was pushing a much bigger gear than Pogacar on the steep parts. This will be totally different in the Road Race.

The cobbles don't look nearly as hard as the cobbles of the Oude Kwaremont and the climb is not nearly as steep as Koppenberg or Paterberg for example. The steeper part only lasts for a couple hundred meters.

I'd like to see the first Road Races to know if the cobbles actually will make much of a difference.

They do it 14 times though. It's the attrition that will be the issue here, especially if they are racing full gas. If you think about Glasgow, most of the climbs were really short, but they did them so many times that the race became hugely attritional.

 

[aphronesis]

I wasn’t aware that many rated Vingegaard highly on that scale. Maybe the wrong press.

 

[Lequack]

Interview with a Belgian

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970523512130462167

View: https://x.com/hebedinhotribun/status/1970523512130462167

 

[Red Rick]

Vingegaard is also overrated in that regard. Longest race he has won was that TDF stage last year.

Races over 200k
Vingegaard won 1 out of 60 (longest 211 km)
Evenepoel won 11 out of 63 (longest 272 km)
Pogacar won 21 out of 82 (longest 273.9 km)

The far majority of >200km races are non GC stages, which says nothing. This is a poor subsitute for general 1 day race pedigree, where we'd both agree Vingegaard has none.

In fact Roglic having 7 wins out of 100 would kinda underrepresent how much he's underperformed in long races 1 day races compared to shorter ones for example.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The far majority of >200km races are non GC stages, which says nothing. This is a poor subsitute for general 1 day race pedigree, where we'd both agree Vingegaard has none.

In fact Roglic having 7 wins out of 100 would kinda underrepresent how much he's underperformed in long races 1 day races compared to shorter ones for example.

If we were talking about 5-10 races, i'd agree. But for all riders we are talking about 60+ races so i think the sample size is adequate to see a clear pattern emerge. Plenty of classic-style stages among those stages as well. If as a GC rider you feel you have a chance there to take time, surely you take it.

 

[Unchained]

What are early moves? How far from the finish? And where is the Belgian national team? I expect them to keep any attack close together with some Slovenians

@70 out and Belgian team will definitely be on everything The Slovenian is a factor and if Roglic is on, otherwise it's Belgium with quality.. I expect Remco to race aggressively , he said before TT he felt better than ever, proved it to himself and everyone with the win..Pogacar in my opinion is coming off bad months since TDF not talking, acting or racing as confident. I expect Remco to test people.. Ayuso might say he is rainbow worthy but Remco, Pog, and half dozen others don't agree.. I am curious to see the relationship between Australia and others I think that they have 2 favorites in Vine and Plapp, I am picking that order Belgium, Australia, Spain, Portugal, Mexico in top 6-8..

 

[Berflamand]

@70 out and Belgian team will definitely be on everything The Slovenian is a factor and if Roglic is on, otherwise it's Belgium with quality.. I expect Remco to race aggressively , he said before TT he felt better than ever, proved it to himself and everyone with the win..Pogacar in my opinion is coming off bad months since TDF not talking, acting or racing as confident. I expect Remco to test people.. Ayuso might say he is rainbow worthy but Remco, Pog, and half dozen others don't agree.. I am curious to see the relationship between Australia and others I think that they have 2 favorites in Vine and Plapp, I am picking that order Belgium, Australia, Spain, Portugal, Mexico in top 6-8..

Better than ever this year.

 

[Cycling111]

I think it suits Remco more, but I dont doubt Pog could win.

In Glasgow, there were no steep climbs; the race had 2,000 meters of elevation, and Pogacar was better than Remco.
And it wasn't just physical, because Pogacar wasn´t at his best after the injury and the Tour. He needed medical attention in Glasgow.

I think Pogacar is still underrated in some routes.
Finishing second in Roubaix in his debut year has nothing to do with winning Lombardia.

I just doubt he's shape after the spring and Tour. But I don't doubt the route isn't right for him.
Glasgow or Roubaix, are worse routes for him. In Glasgow he managed to adapt to the course better than Remco.

Ironically, what can harm hims that the route is too tough and that he ends cooked, but I would have the same doubt if Sunday's route was in Lombardia.

In normal conditions, it would be perfect route for him.

 

[Salvarani]

In Glasgow, there were no steep climbs; the race had 2,000 meters of elevation, and Pogacar was better than Remco.
And it wasn't just physical, because Pogacar wasn´t at his best after the injury and the Tour. He needed medical attention in Glasgow.

I think Pogacar is still underrated in some routes.
Finishing second in Roubaix in his debut year has nothing to do with winning Lombardia.

I just doubt he's shape after the spring and Tour. But I don't doubt the route isn't right for him.
Glasgow or Roubaix, are worse routes for him. In Glasgow he managed to adapt to the course better than Remco.

Ironically, what he may complain about now is that the route is too tough and he ends up cooked. But in normal conditions, it would be perfect.

Cool, I think it suits Remco more but I dont doubt Pog could win.

 

[Oldman]

What are early moves? How far from the finish? And where is the Belgian national team? I expect them to keep any attack close together with some Slovenians

This is reasonable if things don't get crazy-hectic from the gun. If Belgians want to control I'm sure the Slovenians will accommodate them right up to when they don't. The number of aggressive guys that can climb make this almost a short term strategy IMO.

 

[yaco]

Vine has a grand total of 5 UCI points in his entire career, on stages or races over 200km.

You have nailed it. Australia has limited options in the RR. Too hard for Matthews, Hindley is an average one day races, Plapp could do OK, however, there best option may be Storer.