World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

I doubt anyone has ever gone into a worlds event as heavily favoured to win as Remco is for tomorrow, not even peak Vos or TT beast mode Cancellara.

Imo, Remco is a lot "less" favorite for the RR compared to the TT on that course/distance. Obviously he's still favorite, but anyone that can keep his wheel has huge chances of taking home gold. A few riders are more explosive uphill and they could make a gap on the last climb. But if Remco (/Belgium) has made the race hard enough, his chances will rise considerably. I don't see many juniors dropping him after a hard race.

 

[Red Rick]

He's been winning easier races solo for the entirety of the race

He'll win solo at his own whim

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

He's been winning easier races solo for the entirety of the race

He'll win solo at his own whim

The question for me isn't is the race hard enough but rather can it be too hard? I'm not an Evenepoel expert but weren't there some cases of him getting beaten in mountain stages?

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

Chapeau Rohan Dennis! Monster performance - Tommy D 2nd again ... :sad:

What's up with the people DNSing? That's gonna be annoying; you travel to Austria for - quite possibly - the biggest race of the year, then you… don't even make it to the start line!

It's strange ... mmm ...

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

I wasn't able to watch the race, but looking at the intermediate time splits, I'm kinda shocked the margin between Dumoulin and Dennis suddenly got so big between split 1 and 2. The difference made between start-split 1 and split 2-finish was much smaller. And yet I would have thought the climby part suits Dumoulin better?

Dennis has been targeting this since the route was announced, working on his climbing and dropping some upper body weight. He’s always been a strong climber in short stage races to start with as well. It’s 3 weeks of racing where he struggles. I’m not sure a fresher Dumoulin would have won this TT, Dennis has shifted his focus that well.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin seemed to think he could have won in top shape today.

He implied he'd never beat Dennis on flat TTs, which is fair

 

[CTQ]

Re:

What's up with the people DNSing? That's gonna be annoying; you travel to Austria for - quite possibly - the biggest race of the year, then you… don't even make it to the start line!

Pretty sure that these 2 riders would have have liked to start the ITT, pretty lame from the federation....

https://twitter.com/faustocoppi60/status/1044936265769127936
Both Serghei Tvetcov and Eduard Grosu should have started today's ITT but the Romanian Cycling Federation failed at registering them...

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin has no shot at the road race.

Dennis might be Australia's best option for the road race.

Kwiatkowski surprised me today.

Dennis not known for one day form but will probably handle the course as well as Haig.

Haig has to be the leader for the elite mens RR - Bigger question is whether Hamilton or Stannard will be the leader for the under 23's RR.

I never said he doesn't but Dennis is a decent climber on his day as he has showed before. I'd be surprised to see Australian riders feature unless someone like Simon Clarke gets into a break. If the usual hill climb winners do well like Valverde etc, the decision to leave out Matthews will look pretty stupid. I think he had to be there especially after Porte dropped out. They had nothing to lose even though no one knows yet whether this course will be more for the mountain climbers or the hill experts. But a gamble with Matthews really would have been no gamble as the team doesn't look like it has another possible winner.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Dumoulin seemed to think he could have won in top shape today.

He implied he'd never beat Dennis on flat TTs, which is fair

He needs to learn how to lose. Even Quintana does it with grace now.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin seemed to think he could have won in top shape today.

He implied he'd never beat Dennis on flat TTs, which is fair

He needs to learn how to lose. Even Quintana does it with grace now.

It wasn't sore at all. He was just very disappointed with his own performance. In no way did he imply he would be a guaranteed winner if he had been great.

He wasn't sore in the Giro. He wasn't sore in the Tour. He isn't sore now.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin has no shot at the road race.

Dennis might be Australia's best option for the road race.

Kwiatkowski surprised me today.

Dennis not known for one day form but will probably handle the course as well as Haig.

Haig has to be the leader for the elite mens RR - Bigger question is whether Hamilton or Stannard will be the leader for the under 23's RR.

I never said he doesn't but Dennis is a decent climber on his day as he has showed before. I'd be surprised to see Australian riders feature unless someone like Simon Clarke gets into a break. If the usual hill climb winners do well like Valverde etc, the decision to leave out Matthews will look pretty stupid. I think he had to be there especially after Porte dropped out. They had nothing to lose even though no one knows yet whether this course will be more for the mountain climbers or the hill experts. But a gamble with Matthews really would have been no gamble as the team doesn't look like it has another possible winner.

The best bet for Australia will be to try and get the likes of Clarke, Dennis and Hindley in the break of the day to give Haig the easiest ride possible.

The added bonus is that if Dennis can somehow get over the last climb in a small group, only the race moto will be able to keep up.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

He's been winning easier races solo for the entirety of the race

He'll win solo at his own whim

The question for me isn't is the race hard enough but rather can it be too hard? I'm not an Evenepoel expert but weren't there some cases of him getting beaten in mountain stages?

Last time this happened was at Giro Lunigiana last month, when Vacek had been sucking his wheel all day, just to attack in the final kilometer. Evenepoel, who had been pulling the front all day (why, only god knows) couldn't close the gap and came in third 8 or so seconds behind Vacek. That's what i meant. There is actually a chance that he will not win (can't see him miss the podium though). While there was never one shred of doubt in my mind that there was a possibility he would not win the ITT. I claimed as much a few weeks ago by saying i expected Belgium to get al least 2 medals, one being Junior ITT gold. But there are a couple of juniors, like Vacek, that if he can't shake them before the final climb, can pose a real problem. Especially if the race wasn't hard enough. The harder the race, the better for Evenepoel. No one comes close to his engine/volume. He just has to get his head out of his ass, and let the team do the work for him instead of trying to do everything by himself. That's the reason Vacek beat him last month. Maybe let Van Wilder/Vervloesem go in the attack and let the other teams chase (since they can't afford to let those two go) before attacking himself. Or just have his team make the race hard, and attack when the other contenders are about to blow up. He has a strong team, he should either let them have a go, or use them wisely.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Hmm... random observation: The women's elite races might be the race with the greatest age-differences, since there are 19-year-olds riding, and then there's Edwige Pitel, who kinda breaks the statistics in the other end.
But even without her, there are quite some age differences.

There are 19/20-year olds in some male pro races as well, but I guess the issue is that the women have no choice but to move up to the elite category as soon as they turn 19. There should be a U23 category. Not just because of the difference in strength, but also because junior women are used to races 60-80 km long, and with the ladies they will race twice that distance.
Also, I might be wrong, but I believe you can only be a junior until the year you turn 19, so those born in December would have to race Elite races even at 18.

 

[spalco]

Re: Re:

Has a rider ever before been second in Giro, Tour and all three Worlds races in a season before?

I think I will ask this question again. By the way, I know the answer is no. But it would be quite the feat.

I don't think he will take second place on sunday. (or be anywhere in contention really)

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Hmm... random observation: The women's elite races might be the race with the greatest age-differences, since there are 19-year-olds riding, and then there's Edwige Pitel, who kinda breaks the statistics in the other end.
But even without her, there are quite some age differences.

There are 19/20-year olds in some male pro races as well, but I guess the issue is that the women have no choice but to move up to the elite category as soon as they turn 19. There should be a U23 category. Not just because of the difference in strength, but also because junior women are used to races 60-80 km long, and with the ladies they will race twice that distance.
Also, I might be wrong, but I believe you can only be a junior until the year you turn 19, so those born in December would have to race Elite races even at 18.

Yes, but the question is; would they be selected?
And I was thinking purely in World Championship context. Surely there are no 19-year-olds in the elite men's races, because - as you mentioned - they have a U23 class.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Hmm... random observation: The women's elite races might be the race with the greatest age-differences, since there are 19-year-olds riding, and then there's Edwige Pitel, who kinda breaks the statistics in the other end.
But even without her, there are quite some age differences.

There are 19/20-year olds in some male pro races as well, but I guess the issue is that the women have no choice but to move up to the elite category as soon as they turn 19. There should be a U23 category. Not just because of the difference in strength, but also because junior women are used to races 60-80 km long, and with the ladies they will race twice that distance.
Also, I might be wrong, but I believe you can only be a junior until the year you turn 19, so those born in December would have to race Elite races even at 18.

I hope distances in women's elite races increase over time, and if that happens they'll definitely need to have a u23 (or perhaps u21) category

Honestly I think the men should have u21 rather than u23 too.

 

[RedheadDane]

^ Hopefully if enough women starts racing - and can race as full-time professionals - there will be enough riders to justify a U23 (or U21) class.

---

Rather big front group, Italy and French well-represented.

 

[spalco]

*** hand waving and negotiating annoys me even more more in junior's races than in elite. Just go for it if you want to go.

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm confused. Is the group that is shown all the time the peloton or are those the leaders?

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm confused. Is the group that is shown all the time the peloton or are those the leaders?

The leading group which you might as well call the peloton.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I'm confused. Is the group that is shown all the time the peloton or are those the leaders?

Leaders by natural selection on the previous climb. They were 25 at the bottom of Igls. The "peloton" was 1 minute behind at the time.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm confused. Is the group that is shown all the time the peloton or are those the leaders?

The leaders.

I think the peloton are who dropped on the first climb and haven't been relevant since

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm confused. Is the group that is shown all the time the peloton or are those the leaders?

The leading group which you might as well call the peloton.

Okay, I was confused because of the time gaps that showed the peloton being 2 minutes behind

 

[spalco]

I have no clue about junior's women's races, how likely is that 25 second gap to hold?

 

[Pricey_sky]

This looks like an exciting finish to this race.