World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Red Rick]

GvA and Gilbert are gonna get recked and not be close to the win. There's no gazillion km's of flat after the final climb to catch the 10 climbers that are better, and this time around not all better climbers are gonna crash out.

 

[huge]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with an attack before the last climb.

This is actually an important point. Nibali will probably be the leader of Italy considering his record in mountainous one day races like this, but the last climb doesn't suit him at all. If Nibali wants to win the race has to explode earlier. Ofc the fact that this climb doesn't suit him could also be an argument why he shouldn't be the team leader but then again, I don't really see anyone from Italy who has a big chance to win if everyone comes to the Murito together.

Nibali has already said that the WC RR is one of his 2018 main goals.

He has hinted he might ride again the Vuelta to prepare for it... which means no Tour most probably.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with an attack before the last climb.

This is actually an important point. Nibali will probably be the leader of Italy considering his record in mountainous one day races like this, but the last climb doesn't suit him at all. If Nibali wants to win the race has to explode earlier. Ofc the fact that this climb doesn't suit him could also be an argument why he shouldn't be the team leader but then again, I don't really see anyone from Italy who has a big chance to win if everyone comes to the Murito together.

Nibali has already said that the WC RR is one of his 2018 main goals.

He has hinted he might ride again the Vuelta to prepare for it... which means no Tour most probably.

I think he still dreams to leave the sport with all GT's, monument, WW RR and Olympic gold in his palmares. This probably is his last chance for WW RR, so I bet Innsbruck will actually be his #1 target of whole next year. The result will potentially determine if he will continue until 2020 to see Tokyo.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Nibali, with an attack before the last climb.

This is actually an important point. Nibali will probably be the leader of Italy considering his record in mountainous one day races like this, but the last climb doesn't suit him at all. If Nibali wants to win the race has to explode earlier. Ofc the fact that this climb doesn't suit him could also be an argument why he shouldn't be the team leader but then again, I don't really see anyone from Italy who has a big chance to win if everyone comes to the Murito together.

Nibali has already said that the WC RR is one of his 2018 main goals.

He has hinted he might ride again the Vuelta to prepare for it... which means no Tour most probably.

I'm pretty sure he'll target the gc in the tour and then go stage hunting to the vuelta as a preparation for the worlds. In 2016 he did the same by going for the gc of the giro, then he rode the tour as a prep race and was in great shape in the Olympic RR.

 

[offbyone]

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

Little early there

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

Hindsight is 20/20!

 

[offbyone]

Re: Re:

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

Little early there

Oh whoops is this for next year?
I guess 2017 was so boring we have already moved on to 2018 or maybe this is an early spoiler :razz:

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

Little early there

Oh whoops is this for next year?
I guess 2017 was so boring we have already moved on to 2018 or maybe this is an early spoiler :razz:

I can guarantee you that someone will have that opinion after the 2018 worlds as well.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

That was the worst most boring road race I have ever watched. Glad for sagan, but what a horrible race. I realize it was a race of attrition with the distance, but I didn't think only 15K would be worth watching in a 260K race.

Little early there

Oh whoops is this for next year?
I guess 2017 was so boring we have already moved on to 2018 or maybe this is an early spoiler :razz:

Nah we will all be stunned when Simon 'Big Arms' Spilak wins

 

[Asero831]

imagine the carnage Colombia can and will make

Quintana, Chavez, Uran, Bernal, Henao, Lopez and Pantano. With Betancur in early break.

 

[Koronin]

Chavez is Colombia's best option then Uran as they actually can race one day races fairly well.

However Nibali and Valverde will be the huge favorites going into this race. Valverde is also targeting it as one of his main goals for the season. He's also said the realistically it's his last best shot at winning the rainbow jersey which he really wants.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

imagine the carnage Colombia can and will make

Quintana, Chavez, Uran, Bernal, Henao, Lopez and Pantano. With Betancur in early break.

The big problem the Colombians will have is outsprinting the likes of Valverde, Kwiatkowski and Allaphilipe. The only rider likely to be chosen with any real chance of doing this is probably Uran.

For Chaves, Quintana or any of the others to win they will probably need to win alone, which may not happen with the likely strength of the Spanish, French and Italian teams. Even the British could put a strong team together (on paper at least) but apart from Copenhagen they suck at worlds

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

imagine the carnage Colombia can and will make

Quintana, Chavez, Uran, Bernal, Henao, Lopez and Pantano. With Betancur in early break.

The big problem the Colombians will have is outsprinting the likes of Valverde, Kwiatkowski and Allaphilipe. The only rider likely to be chosen with any real chance of doing this is probably Uran.

For Chaves, Quintana or any of the others to win they will probably need to win alone, which may not happen with the likely strength of the Spanish, French and Italian teams. Even the British could put a strong team together (on paper at least) but apart from Copenhagen they suck at worlds

Add to that this does not finish on the top of a mountain, it finishes a few KM from the bottom of a descent. Which makes it even better for the likes of Valverde, Alaphilippe (if he can climb well enough), Nibali. The Belgiums will also have a strong team, the question is can either Gilbert (more likely) or Van Avermeat be able to climb well enough to stay with the other group.

 

[Asero831]

Spain, Colombia and Italy have learned their lessons in the Olympics, they cannot let Alaphilippe, GVA, Sagan Gilbert hang in their. Now that there is a 8 man squad, there will be more domestiques to soften the legs of the peloton.

By the 60km to finish, expect only climbers left in the race.
Also, Rio have the final 23kms on descent and flat hence GVA was able to comeback.

Innsbruck only has 6 kms of descent and 2 kms flat, so it is really a climbers race.

 

[Koronin]

Depends on the country, but the top handful will have 9 man squads. The descent and run in to the finish basically means it highly unlikely a pure climber can win. Thus making the guys like Valverde, Nibali, and Uran the favorites. Herein lies the problem for basically all those teams, how to shake Valverde who has an actual sprint that none of the other climbers have and happens to be one of the best descenders as well.

 

[Gigs_98]

Let's please not ignore how ridiculously hard that last climb is. Sure, there is a chance this will end in a sprint between a few riders but saying it's very hard to finish alone simply isn't true.

 

[42x16ss]

Let's please not ignore how ridiculously hard that last climb is. Sure, there is a chance this will end in a sprint between a few riders but saying it's very hard to finish alone simply isn't true.

Yes, it’s a tough climb, but we’re talking about Valverde here, not Sagan, Matthews, Van Avermaet etc. if Valverde really does want this, I’m not sure who can beat him other than himself.

 

[Gigs_98]

Let's please not ignore how ridiculously hard that last climb is. Sure, there is a chance this will end in a sprint between a few riders but saying it's very hard to finish alone simply isn't true.

Yes, it’s a tough climb, but we’re talking about Valverde here, not Sagan, Matthews, Van Avermaet etc. if Valverde really does want this, I’m not sure who can beat him other than himself.

If valverde is so unbeatable on courses like this can you give me a list of big one day races he won which ended after a descent?

 

[jaylew]

What big one day races exist that end after a descent?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

What big one day races exist that end after a descent?

Giro di Lombardia

 

[Netserk]

^^And the other Italian monument. (Not to mention the several championship courses over the years.)

That said, San Sebastian is one of the bigger classics that ends after a descent.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

^^And the other Italian monument. (Not to mention the several championship courses over the years.)

That said, San Sebastian is one of the bigger classics that ends after a descent.

And he has won it how often? Twice? He isn't exactly unbeatable there either

 

[Anderis]

Egan Bernal will win this bike race.

 

[Koronin]

Valverde's biggest issue at Lombardia is that he's usually close to if not over 90 race days by the time he races it. He's still managed to podium there with a good 10 to 20 more race days than any of the other GC riders by the time you get to Lombardia. Also he's won and has multiple podiums at San Sebastian after racing for GC at the Tour. Many of the guys he's racing against at San Sebastian weren't racing for GC at the Tour. The guys who are most likely to beat Valverde at this year's worlds aside from Nibali are NOT the top level GC riders.