World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Without Nibali wanting to make carnage from far I don't know if some nation will control the race, I see increasingly possibility for a break with riders like van Avermaet, Valgren and second fiddle climbers to go clear with 3/4 laps to go and no one clearly chasing it. And we should also consider that Nibali was also the only one between climbers interested to go clear before the final climb so I can see a big waiting game in the favourites group that will only help the eventual break.

second fiddle climbers in this context probably means top climbers without classics pedigree.

Pure classics guys aren't gonna be anywhere close.

I can't see such a selection without a team hammering the race, the long climb is too easy.
Anyway I cited two classics riders that are capable to survive with the climbers in a 20/25 riders group, I think they'll attack because is better anticipating the wall but even if they'll stay in the group they can hang on until the last long climb or even to the foot of the wall, the same would have gone for Matthews, if selected.
For second fiddle climbers I mean riders like Pantano, Barguil, Visconti.

If someone expect a group of 5 or less pure climbers/GC riders already at the beginning of last lap I can see a lot of complain after the race, it's not Sallanches and there isn't Hinault.

Those guys won't survive in a 20/25 man group. Not in this field. In the TotA stage that did Igls 3 times, only 13 riders finished within a minute from the winner.

They're gonna affect the race by driving the flats.

 

[Eli]

Re: Re:

Aren't a lot of Aussie riders comign from other backgrounds than cycling. I get the idea that the domestic cycling scene is quite small but some top talents come from stuff like triathlon or even swimming, but I can't remember the latter.

Australia will die out as a force in sports as the years go on, I live in Sydney and there are zero white Australians left here, ( it’s literally 5 in every 50 ) it’s all immigration upwards of 300k a year from third world countries and they do not commit to sport. Our future achievements will be even more
Amazing considering it will come from a smaller pool of athletes even though our population soars.

Put the One Nation pamphlet down please :lol:

Pretty crazy stuff for a bunch of reasons: (1) a huge majority of Sydney residents are of European descent, (2) the rest of Australia is significantly whiter again and (3) the idea that migrants diminish rather than strengthen the local sports scene is bizarre. It’s really quite strange to read these kind of xenophobic fantasies on a cycling forum.

I was going to reply that dolt til I saw this. Well done mate!

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Without Nibali wanting to make carnage from far I don't know if some nation will control the race, I see increasingly possibility for a break with riders like van Avermaet, Valgren and second fiddle climbers to go clear with 3/4 laps to go and no one clearly chasing it. And we should also consider that Nibali was also the only one between climbers interested to go clear before the final climb so I can see a big waiting game in the favourites group that will only help the eventual break.

second fiddle climbers in this context probably means top climbers without classics pedigree.

Pure classics guys aren't gonna be anywhere close.

I can't see such a selection without a team hammering the race, the long climb is too easy.
Anyway I cited two classics riders that are capable to survive with the climbers in a 20/25 riders group, I think they'll attack because is better anticipating the wall but even if they'll stay in the group they can hang on until the last long climb or even to the foot of the wall, the same would have gone for Matthews, if selected.
For second fiddle climbers I mean riders like Pantano, Barguil, Visconti.

If someone expect a group of 5 or less pure climbers/GC riders already at the beginning of last lap I can see a lot of complain after the race, it's not Sallanches and there isn't Hinault.

Those guys won't survive in a 20/25 man group. Not in this field. In the TotA stage that did Igls 3 times, only 13 riders finished within a minute from the winner.

They're gonna affect the race by driving the flats.

Tour of the Alps is not a good reference, only the first in GC standings were interested to go all out and only GC riders preparing the Giro were in good shape.
In WC the selection from the favourites group will be limited at the last lap and I'm all but sure that will be for the victory, this year we have already seen multiple times in one day races that the favourites tend to let slip away someone and in this case could be a group with riders like the ones I mentioned.

 

[stetre76]

I also think that the typical Classics rider won't stand a chance to be still at the very fron to the race before the last lap starts.

True, the climb to Igls (via Aldrans/Lans) is not really steep and not exceptionally long, but doing this circuit 7 times will show its effect on the Classics riders.
I think the "real race" is going to start with 3 or 2 rounds to go.
The Höll climb is steep but too short to really get away far enough, especially as the downhill from the Hungerburg isn't too technical.
The road surface down the Höhenstrasse is in perfect condition and the two hairpins shouldn't be any problem for any Pro-rider.

So I think that someone will try to get away before the last climb up the Höll....

For the Austrians I hope that the don't try to be too active and join or kill every group that goes on the first 200k.
I think we haven't had such a great team in years and I think Konrad could really make it to the top 10, but for this he'll need the support of the other 5 riders and have at least one other Austrian with him on the last 2 laps...

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I also think that the typical Classics rider won't stand a chance to be still at the very fron to the race before the last lap starts.

True, the climb to Igls (via Aldrans/Lans) is not really steep and not exceptionally long, but doing this circuit 7 times will show its effect on the Classics riders.
I think the "real race" is going to start with 3 or 2 rounds to go.
The Höll climb is steep but too short to really get away far enough, especially as the downhill from the Hungerburg isn't too technical.
The road surface down the Höhenstrasse is in perfect condition and the two hairpins shouldn't be any problem for any Pro-rider.

So I think that someone will try to get away before the last climb up the Höll....

For the Austrians I hope that the don't try to be too active and join or kill every group that goes on the first 200k.
I think we haven't had such a great team in years and I think Konrad could really make it to the top 10, but for this he'll need the support of the other 5 riders and have at least one other Austrian with him on the last 2 laps...

Is this profile of Gramartboden accurate?

The final reminds me most of Pais Vasco 2014 stage 1, with Gaintza, which is perhaps slightly harder, but where gaps were huge.

Really I think people look at the results of the 2016 Olympics and 2013 Worlds a lot and the results seem counterintuitive.


All in all, I think these Worlds are incredibly interesting, because due to the length of the climb I think it's actually possible to attack without wasting every chance you have when it doesn't work. On those short climbs of most Worlds you'll have to give a short and absolute max effort to get a small gap, whereas here a very strong climber should be able to attack while still keeping something in reserve for the rest of the race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

 

[del1962]

Current Line Ups for mens race please add

Italy

Fabio Aru, Damiano Caruso, Alessandro De Marchi, Gianni Moscon, Vincenzo Nibali, Franco Pellizotti, Domenico Pozzovivo, plus either Gianluca Brambilla. Dario Cataldo, Davide Formolo or Giovanni Visconti.

UK
Hugh Carthy, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Pete Kennaugh, James Knox, Ian Stannard, Connor Swift, Adam Yates and Simon Yates.

Spain
Alejandro Valverde, Enric Mas, Ion Izagirre , Jesús Herrada , David de la Cruz , Mikel Nieve, Jonathan Castroviejo and Omar Fraile

France
ALAPHILIPPE Julian, BARDET Romain, GALLOPIN Tony, GENIEZ Alexandre, MOLARD Rudy, PINOT Thibaut, ROLLAND Pierre and ROUX Anthony

Denmark
Jakob Fuglsang, Michael Valgren , Jesper Hansen, Niklas Eg, Kasper Asgreen, Mads Würtz Schmidt, Matti Breschel, Emil Vinjebo

Austria
Konrad, Mühlberger, Grossschartner, Pöstlberger, Gogl and Preidler

Canada
Rob Britton, Antoine Duchesne, Hugo Houle and Mike Woods

Belgium
Greg van Avermaet, Dylan Teuns, Tim Wellens, Tiejs Benoot. Laurens de Plus, Xandro Meurisse, Serge Pauwels and Ben Hermans

Colombia
Nairo Alexander Quintana, Rigoberto Urán, Miguel Ángel López , Sergio Luis Henao, Daniel Felipe Martínez, Sebastián Henao, Winner Anacona and Rodrigo Contreras

Dutch
Dumoulin, Poels, Mollema, Kruijswijk, Oomen, Tolhoek, Kelderman and Weening

New Zealand
George Bennett, Dion Smith, Patrick Bevin and Sam Bewley

Australia

Simon Clarke, Rohan Dennis, Jack Haig, Chris Hamilton, Damien Howson, Richie Porte, Robert Power and Rory Sutherlan

Slovenia
Primož Roglič, Matej Mohorič, Grega Bole, Luka Pibernik, Domen Novak, Simon Špilak, Jan Polanc and Jan Tratnik

 

[King Boonen]

Disappointed Barguil won't be there, but he's not really done enough to justify it. If it was last year I think he'd have been one of the favourites. Hopefully he'll get a course in the future that suits him when he's in form.

 

[Gigs_98]

@Red Rick
Seems to be the correct profile. This is on the official website:
https://www.innsbruck-tirol2018.com/fileadmin/Races_Courses/Maps/Olympia_Rundkurs_2018.pdf

The important thing about this climb is that the ridiculously steep stuff is basically all on one kilometer, which isn't a lot. However I think that after 260 kilometers with so much climbing the time differences even on such a short stretch could be gigantic. But then again, I might be completely wrong and it ends in a 20 men sprint, there just is no good reference point as no such race has taken place in modern times. Maybe Lombardia 2016 is kinda comparable but then again the final proper climb ended with 40 k to go while here we have hard climbs all the way to the finish. Still no idea what to expect and I love that.

 

[stetre76]

@RedRick This profile looks pretty accurate, but to be honest there are so many different profiles around, that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Even on the official website you'll find 2 different profiles - one when you look at the route of the Men's Elite race and one from the hobby race which is staged on Saturday on the exact same route...

Tbh I've never done the Höll on a bike myself, even though I am living in Innsbruck for quite some time now. I only know it from trail-/mountainrunning and for my training runs its steep enough.

Besides being considerably steep, the climb up the Höll is also pretty narrow.
This could be a factor as well, should a bigger group tackle the last climb together.
Should someone end up with a gearing/technical problem this could be a problem - I'd say it's pretty much impossible start cycling again, if you have to get off the bike in one of the steeper sections.

In case of rain it might be interesting as well - not sure if the steepest section is really manageable with a road bike, traction could be very very tricky.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

I also think that the typical Classics rider won't stand a chance to be still at the very fron to the race before the last lap starts.

True, the climb to Igls (via Aldrans/Lans) is not really steep and not exceptionally long, but doing this circuit 7 times will show its effect on the Classics riders.
I think the "real race" is going to start with 3 or 2 rounds to go.
The Höll climb is steep but too short to really get away far enough, especially as the downhill from the Hungerburg isn't too technical.
The road surface down the Höhenstrasse is in perfect condition and the two hairpins shouldn't be any problem for any Pro-rider.

So I think that someone will try to get away before the last climb up the Höll....

For the Austrians I hope that the don't try to be too active and join or kill every group that goes on the first 200k.
I think we haven't had such a great team in years and I think Konrad could really make it to the top 10, but for this he'll need the support of the other 5 riders and have at least one other Austrian with him on the last 2 laps...

Is this profile of Gramartboden accurate?

The final reminds me most of Pais Vasco 2014 stage 1, with Gaintza, which is perhaps slightly harder, but where gaps were huge.

Really I think people look at the results of the 2016 Olympics and 2013 Worlds a lot and the results seem counterintuitive.

That's a really detailed profile of Gramartboden. If your profile is correct, there should be a stretch of 500 (!) meters with 19,6% average gradient. Although it's a large distance, i's probably in line with the official profiles, because it looks like the steepest section already begin before the official average 350m section from 1.75 to 2.1 km (on the official profile). So it could well be that it's 500 and not only 350m long.

Out of curiosity, is the Pais Vasco climb the one, where Contador dropped Valverde in '14?

 

[Red Rick]

@Red Rick
Seems to be the correct profile. This is on the official website:
https://www.innsbruck-tirol2018.com/fileadmin/Races_Courses/Maps/Olympia_Rundkurs_2018.pdf

The important thing about this climb is that the ridiculously steep stuff is basically all on one kilometer, which isn't a lot. However I think that after 260 kilometers with so much climbing the time differences even on such a short stretch could be gigantic. But then again, I might be completely wrong and it ends in a 20 men sprint, there just is no good reference point as no such race has taken place in modern times. Maybe Lombardia 2016 is kinda comparable but then again the final proper climb ended with 40 k to go while here we have hard climbs all the way to the finish. Still no idea what to expect and I love that.

I think a very overlooked part of that climb is the last 500m or so. If the steepst pitch leads directly into the descent, then a tiny gap likely isn't enough, but when everyone breaks their legs at the 20+ pitch, the 500m at 6% or so is where the real difference is made. It works that way in Fleche Wallone too.

And that's not to say that a full km at 15% isn't enough. It should be. That's 4'30 of climbign or something like that where you're going 13-14 km per hour and where drafting is negligble.

I still don't like the fact that they use that climb though, and nothing will convince me otherwise

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

I actually think Valverde was so pissed with Rodríguez attacking, when he should just have been shutting down attacks from Costa and Nibali, that he didn't want him to win because of that.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

In his best years, maybe. But if we play the "what if contador kept riding for just one more year" game, then no, I don't think the contador who constantly struggled over long distances and on the really really tough mountain stages could have won this

 

[Climbing]

@Red Rick
Seems to be the correct profile. This is on the official website:
https://www.innsbruck-tirol2018.com/fileadmin/Races_Courses/Maps/Olympia_Rundkurs_2018.pdf

The important thing about this climb is that the ridiculously steep stuff is basically all on one kilometer, which isn't a lot. However I think that after 260 kilometers with so much climbing the time differences even on such a short stretch could be gigantic. But then again, I might be completely wrong and it ends in a 20 men sprint, there just is no good reference point as no such race has taken place in modern times. Maybe Lombardia 2016 is kinda comparable but then again the final proper climb ended with 40 k to go while here we have hard climbs all the way to the finish. Still no idea what to expect and I love that.

I think a very overlooked part of that climb is the last 500m or so. If the steepst pitch leads directly into the descent, then a tiny gap likely isn't enough, but when everyone breaks their legs at the 20+ pitch, the 500m at 6% or so is where the real difference is made.

It's quite typical to make the difference in lower gradients after an hard stretch full gas.
But I would hope the race exploded way before that point tbh.

 

[YavorD]

I think it all depends how it's raced. On paper the Igls climb doesnt look hard enough, but we've seen many times how an "easy climb" brings a huuuge selection (yes, in a stage race), Some of the Gap stages it TdF comes to mind and as far as I remember the climb(s) were also not really hard. So that climb 7 times in a row in the end of the season CAN really bring a carnage if properly raced. That may depend of the BotD of course.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

I actually think Valverde was so pissed with Rodríguez attacking, when he should just have been shutting down attacks from Costa and Nibali, that he didn't want him to win because of that.

Costa's attacked was brilliantly timed, I think Valverde hesitated for a moment and then just did what Valverde does.

If what you said was his real motivation that would be pretty disgusting.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

In his best years, maybe. But if we play the "what if contador kept riding for just one more year" game, then no, I don't think the contador who constantly struggled over long distances and on the really really tough mountain stages could have won this

The "what if Contador did ride in 2018" thinking does not bring me to the worlds at all, it brings me to "OMG he was so good in that last Vuelta week that Giro would've had + one million craziness"

His Worlds 'what if' is 2013 for me if he would've had 2014 level in 2013 too. But yeah, always the what ifs....

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

I actually think Valverde was so pissed with Rodríguez attacking, when he should just have been shutting down attacks from Costa and Nibali, that he didn't want him to win because of that.

No. He even encouraged Purito to attack, and deliberately left the gap, they both confirmed that. He simply just messed up. Big time!

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Out of curiosity, is the Pais Vasco climb the one, where Contador dropped Valverde in '14?

Yes, that's the one.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

I actually think Valverde was so pissed with Rodríguez attacking, when he should just have been shutting down attacks from Costa and Nibali, that he didn't want him to win because of that.

Costa's attacked was brilliantly timed, I think Valverde hesitated for a moment and then just did what Valverde does.

If what you said was his real motivation that would be pretty disgusting.

You're likely to be right. Five years on, I have still never rewatched that finale, so I might be misremembering things.

And maybe it was just me who was pissed that Purito attacked.

 

[Sestriere]

Looking at the German team, I think that Schachmann could be an outside bet for a medal in both, ITT and RR.
In the TT only Dumoulin and Dennis appear clearly stronger. Castro should be tired after Tour + Vuelta, Campenaerts won't like the hill, Tony Martin is a question mark after his Tour crash and extended periods of poor form (although in the Giro TT he showed that he still has it in long tests), Roglic, Froome and Thomas aren't racing. The fight for bronze will be close and I think Schachmann has a shot.
Regarding the RR, he said in an interview that he would like a similar situation to Flèche Wallonne, where he anticipated the finale. Some posters here seem to believe that it could actually be an early attack where most big teams are represented that makes it to the finish, so I think it's a good approach. And a nice variety as Germany's tactics in international championships have mostly been horrible in the last years.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

Looking at the German team, I think that Schachmann could be an outside bet for a medal in both, ITT and RR.
In the TT only Dumoulin and Dennis appear clearly stronger. Castro should be tired after Tour + Vuelta, Campenaerts won't like the hill, Tony Martin is a question mark after his Tour crash and extended periods of poor form (although in the Giro TT he showed that he still has it in long tests), Roglic, Froome and Thomas aren't racing. The fight for bronze will be close and I think Schachmann has a shot.
Regarding the RR, he said in an interview that he would like a similar situation to Flèche Wallonne, where he anticipated the finale. Some posters here seem to believe that it could actually be an early attack where most big teams are represented that makes it to the finish, so I think it's a good approach. And a nice variety as Germany's tactics in international championships have mostly been horrible in the last years.

ITT. I don't think Castro would be so much tired but still we have Bodnar @ Kwiato in competition.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

This is probably the only WC Alberto Contador could have won. Ever.

If he'd hit a good peak for the Worlds I think he'd have a small shot in 2009 and a pretty decent on in 2013. This one is the only one where peak Contador would be a favorite for I think.

Main reason why I'd think he could win 2009 and 2013 is the ridiculously strong Spanish teams where he could be the beneficiary of Valverde sitting on somebody's wheel, although he did mess that up so badly in 2013.

I actually think Valverde was so pissed with Rodríguez attacking, when he should just have been shutting down attacks from Costa and Nibali, that he didn't want him to win because of that.

Costa's attacked was brilliantly timed, I think Valverde hesitated for a moment and then just did what Valverde does.

If what you said was his real motivation that would be pretty disgusting.

You're likely to be right. Five years on, I have still never rewatched that finale, so I might be misremembering things.

And maybe it was just me who was pissed that Purito attacked.

Costa attacked into a corner just before the braking zone. When Valverde and Nibali saw it, it was too late to accelerate, they had to follow into the sequence of corners in the same order, Nibali ahead of Valverde. He gained a gap through the corners.

Coming out of the corner the gap was about 3 bike lengths . It was small enough for Valverde to get around Nibali and close it if he had the legs.

Here's where the controversy comes in. One camp believe Valverde's words that he didn't have the legs to close that gap while it was still small after the corners, the other camp believe he did have the legs and think he threw the race.




In any case, the one Valverde really should've won was 2006. He was told over and over before the race what the right gear for the sprint was, and insisted on using a different one. During the race Sanchez kept saying he should really listen and use the recommended one when the finale came.

Still doesn't listen, insists he's right. Come the sprint he puts it into a giant gear and can't accelerate at all. Then after the race he admits the obvious, that everyone else was right about the gear to use.