Re: Re:
Broccolidwarf said:
RedheadDane said:
Broccolidwarf said:
RedheadDane said:
Okay, I know I'm overly focused on the Danes, but I'm gonna call it already:
The goal of four medals is not gonna be fulfilled!
Started out quite well, then they kinda faded.
We've got Cille tomorrow - fingers crossed - she would do an epic winners interview
She would do an epic interview if she got
tenth!
Yeah, but imagine if she wins - her head will explode on camera
(and yes, it's a pipe dream, she needs a couple of years more, before she is a proper contender - 2020 will be her year
)
She needs a better course for 2020 for it to be her year. I'd say realistically she needs a couple of years for a course that has the perfect combination of being tough enough for Cille to be a frontline contender (she doesn't have too much of a sprint and will inevitably lose one to the likes of van Vleuten, Moolman-Pasio or Guarnier, so she needs it to be a small group, from which she can escape) but rolling enough that the Danes can protect her well or concern other teams with the likes of Mathiesen, Norsgaard and Dideriksen that they give Cille the rope. Otherwise she could be stuck in the same kind of position that we find Longo Borghini and Niewiadoma in at present, and Johansson before her (though Johansson had a sprint, she would always be outnumbered and even if she got the numbers level toward the end, she'd have had to do more work early on due to lacking helpers), a problem the Dutch juggernaut will not have.
It's only been duff tactics and duff courses that have cost the Dutch in recent years. They left too much to chance with Wild in 2016, and they fluffed having two women in a group of four in the European Games in 2015. Here, however, they have the top 2 favourites in Anna VDB and Annemiek, while Brand at least ought to be able to get over these climbs and if others don't make the racing too tough, van Dijk and Blaak are no mugs either. Ensing is a good climber but I suspect she'll be a workhorse here - I've been wrong in the past however, such as when van Vleuten was predicted to be a helper in Rio. There's so many cards for them to play that it will be both kind of disappointing if they do win and also a total travesty if they don't.
After all, which other teams are strong enough top down? Italy have Longo Borghini, sure, but Ratto's absent and only occasionally shows the strength she had five years ago, Guderzo's rainbow jersey feels like a long, long time ago now, Magnaldi's a good climber but not really any higher in level than Ensing who is further down the Dutch totem pole than she is the Italian, and apart from Cecchini (who has won on Supergà, but I think there's too many climbs for her here) the rest of the team is on the young side and probably needs another couple of years. The US team is fairly strong, but they've brought some sprinter types in the incredibly unlikely event that this is raced tamely enough to let Rivera or Ryan be there at the finish, which I doubt. Hall is a great climber but hasn't been quite as impressive in Europe this year as I had expected - she'll be a great right hand woman for Guarnier though, whose fast finish means that a rainbow jersey as a retirement present isn't out of the question. The only other
team I think strong enough to pressure the Dutch is Australia, as Amanda Spratt has had a great season and Shara Gillow can climb. The problem they'll face is that their other quality climbing rider in the team is Lucy Kennedy, whose luck this season is such that I half expect her to get injured while warming up in the morning. No Shannon Malseed is a bit disappointing, I thought she's done decently in the hills this season.
For other teams, however, it's going to be more likely to require an inspired individual performance that proves decisive; racing aggressively to try to rid the group of as many of those Dutch domestiques as possible as soon as possible to even the odds. The obvious candidate for that, obviously, is Kasia Niewiadoma, who is coming off victory in the Tour de l'Ardêche so would appear to be in good climbing form. With the ever-combative Małgorzata Jasińska coming off a career season as her best aid, she'll need to try to form groups where it's tactically prudent for the Dutch to split their best riders - her lack of a sprint if a group comes to the line will potentially hurt her though. Ash Moolman-Pasio doesn't even have the luxury of helpers - she has only one compatriot in the race, 19-year-old Elne Owen, who has never raced a pro level UCI race at the senior age category before. Cille we've mentioned before, most of her support team is not built for climbing, so she may end up being most reliant on mountain biker Annika Langvad.
There are a couple of wildcards to point out though. Canada have a couple - Karol-Ann Canuel doesn't usually get to race for herself within the Boels train of pain, but she is a capable climber who's been top 10 in the Giro. Because she's usually riding for Guarnier, Deignan or van der Breggen we don't often get to see what her own punch or sprint are like, and she'll also have Leah Kirchmann for company on that team (oh, shout out to Ruth Winder, forgot to mention her when running down the US team earlier). The Spanish have been all over the climbing races since stage race season began, mainly with latecomer to the sport Margarita Victoria "Mavi" García and diminutive pocket climber Eider Merino; here the two Movistar riders are joined by Ane Santesteban, who was also climbing very well in the Giro. All of them come to play in the mountains, especially Merino whose skillset is very one-dimensional, but it must be noted that the parcours being circuits may be a problem for them because what goes up must come down and Basque climbers are not fabled for their descending prowess; García, the non-Basque among them, lost the Tour de l'Ardêche GC primarily on the descents after she and Merino were best on the climbs. The other real wildcard is Jolanda Neff, who races for Switzerland. The Swiss mountainbike specialist is an excellent climber and bike handler thanks to her MTB background, having finished twice top 10 - once on the podium - in the Trofeo Binda while riding for the tiny Servetto-Footon team, was top 10 of the Richmond Worlds and the 2016 Flèche Wallonne, won the Tour de Pologne by a street on a climby course not dissimilar in profile to Innsbruck and was top 10 in the Olympic Road Race - but has then stopped racing on the road entirely, resurfacing only to win this year's Swiss National Championship. As a result, she has all the tools to do well but her road form is complete and utter guesswork.
My best guess - and it is very much guesswork (for example, I've rated Brand so high as I think her likely to be a usable decoy that others mightn't chase, she's very good at winning solo, and her descending is second to none):
***: van der Breggen, van Vleuten
**: Guarnier, Moolman-Pasio, Niewiadoma, Longo Borghini, Brand
*: Spratt, van Dijk, Ludwig, Hall, Neff
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