Re:
python said:
i actually was waiting for this...
Syrian Kurds plan big attack to seal Turkish border: source
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ypg-idUSKCN0V622F?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews
putting aside for now the question of why the kurds would broadcast their military moves in advance, should the advance take place, it would be a super major development. it could become the beginning of the isil end or, conversely, may lead to inflaming the whole middle east. the article explains some, and in essence it would depend on turkey sticking to its threat of
not tolerating the kurdish advance west of the euphrates river.
i'll add 2 complexities not in the article. the 1st concerns the us role...at the heart of the issue is a 90 miles something stretch of the syria-turkey border to the west of euphrates. it is controlled entirely by the isil. it is the very stretch over which they smuggle oil to turkey and receive supplies and fighters, again from turkey. for months now, the us was publicly assuring everyone that they are working with turkey to seal the stretch, while at the same time leaking their irritation via the 'anonymous sources' that there was little progress. at the same time, america quite openly supports, feeds and trains the syrian kurds who promised the attack and who are the
only militia in syria who consistently beat isis. to make the matters crazy, turkey, the us nato ally calls the us sponsored syrian kurds merciless terrorists..so, what the us is going to do if the kurds do advance and the turks, as they vowed, start bombing them
on syrian territory ?
this brings me to the 2nd complexity - the russian reaction to the development.
some place above, i already mentioned that should turks violate the syrian airspace, the russians would receive a perfect chance for a revenge for that downed bomber. indeed, if they use the same rules of engagement turkey used when they shot down the russian plane, there will be a smoldering f-16 scattered in syria...imagine, the nato panic and indignation if its member state plane was shot down by the russians. it is unimaginable that the turks and particularly the americans aren't appraised of such an ventuality. would america stand by the turks who continue to facilitate the isis lifeline, or would they tell them 'you're on your own if you act stupidly'
perhaps leaking the potential kurdish offensive was the us way of telling turkey to get serious with tightening their border or risking the flames they, turks, have blown ?...
....saw the following yesterday....a compare/contrast to the future Kurd advance....
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"The real warfare is concentrated around the Azaz corridor, a narrow strip of land connecting Turkey to the rebel forces in Aleppo. Though it has been narrowed down to four miles in some places, the Syrian [government] Army can’t take it, despite the Russian aerial support. For the success of the whole operation, it is paramount to seize the corridor and cut the supply lines, but there is a heavy political flak and military difficulties.
At the last Lavrov-Kerry meeting, the American State Secretary six times implored his Russian counterpart to keep hands off the Azaz corridor. The Americans do not want to see Russian victory; besides, the Turks threaten to invade if the corridor is blocked. The Kurds could help the Army cut the corridor, but they do not rush to enter such a bloody and dangerous confrontation. They prefer to sit tight and wait for somebody else to do the job.
The Kurds are afraid of the Turks just across the border and do not want to upset them too much. They do not feel they have much to gain from President Assad’s victory. Syrian Christians told me the Kurds go into their territory and shoot at the Daesh forces, thus causing Daesh’s ferocious retort to the Christians. This is the sectarian reality of Syria, where only the Syrian Army fights for the whole country.
The threats and requests would not stay the advance of the Army, but taking the Azaz corridor is a formidable task anyway. The rebels are dug in; the Islamists use suicide bombers to stem the army offensive. They created deeply entrenched defensive lines and the Russian-Syrian coalition forces advance very slowly, if at all.
The Russians say that the Syrian soldiers are tired, and they do not want to fight hard. The Syrian Mukhabarat (Intelligence Services), a very important independent player, believe that Russia and Iran are committed to preserving Syria, so let them fight. This attitude seeps into the Syrian army. They, like the Kurds, prefer to sit tight and wait. Young men in danger of being drafted prefer to go to Germany or Sweden – this is the first war in history where such an option exists.
In some places the Russian specnaz (airborne, special troops and marines) dislodged the rebels, took their positions and transferred them to the Syrian Army, but the army failed to hold the positions and retreated at the first enemy shelling.
The Russian ground forces are estimated at some two thousand soldiers and officers; they are needed for the defense of the Latakia area. It seems that the Russians and Iranians would have to bring more troops to win the war, but meanwhile it is not going to happen.
The Russian bombing campaign has been successful in one way: it convinced many rebel units to sue for peace. Before the bombs, they were all against any dealing with Assad government; now, they are for settling the conflict peacefully. As I wrote in my previous reports, the real purpose of Russian aerial operations is to force a peaceful solution on the rebels. Well, on some rebels, as the Daesh and an-Nusra appear quite immune to persuasion.
The Russians and the Americans do not fight Daesh too much, as if they are afraid to destroy the force they used to justify their involvement. The Syrian army attempts to advance in Palmyra were repelled by Daesh. The Daesh counteroffensive in Deir al Zour has been accompanied by a mass slaughter of civilians; the army stopped it but could not advance. So the political solution seems to be imperative for conclusion of the war.
....from...
http://www.unz.com/ishamir/moscow-snowbound-litvinenko-poisoned-and-the-syrian-war/
Cheers