World Politics

[Mad Elephant Man]

But he cannot force elections right now. That's the problem.
Until Napolitano's mandate is over, we can't have new elections anyway. We can't stay without a government right now, our economy would collapse.


And if Grillo doesn't come to the table even when Bersani offers to work for things Grillo was voted for, then his popularity might decrease.

In theory though could Napolitano see the situation is helpless, there needs to be another election, resign from being president, a new president then comes in and dissolves the parliament for another election in a month or so.

 

[Mad Elephant Man]

This is, in fact, the worse-case scenario for Grillo: that is being a real force, though not holding power. The intrinsic apparatus of democracy will make this appallingly clear, especially since he built his popular support upon being outside. Estranged.

Now he's in, with the irrevocable consequences that this entails.

I think winning an election is the worst thing he could do for long term popularity.
At least being in this position he can still blame the other parties for getting in the way. I mean he can put forth ideas that both the other two parties reject and then say look the establishment is working together against me. They are all just the same. Get rid of them, I can fix it all.

 

[Eshnar]

In theory though could Napolitano see the situation is helpless, there needs to be another election, resign from being president, a new president then comes in and dissolves the parliament for another election in a month or so.

True, but that would imply that the new parliament should elect the new president. It would likely be a mess anyway.

 

[Mad Elephant Man]

True, but that would imply that the new parliament should elect the new president. It would likely be a mess anyway.

That would be really bad, no president, each of the parties puts up there own candidates for president and the other two parties keep voting against them. So there is no government, no president and nothing gets done. The ultimate nightmare scenario.

 

[SafeBet]

In theory though could Napolitano see the situation is helpless, there needs to be another election, resign from being president, a new president then comes in and dissolves the parliament for another election in a month or so.

That might lead to Berlusconi as President of the Republic.
How does it sound?

 

[Mad Elephant Man]

That might lead to Berlusconi as President of the Republic.
How does it sound?

And Pope as well.

 

[SafeBet]

And Pope as well.

Impossible, that's a clear case of conflict of interest.

Wait, we don't have a law for that

 

[Mad Elephant Man]

Is there any chance that Grillo's party might split with enough of them supporting Bersani and the centre-left to govern even if Grillo refuses to deal?

 

[SafeBet]

Is there any chance that Grillo's party might split with enough of them supporting Bersani and the centre-left to govern even if Grillo refuses to deal?

I thought about it as well. The vote of confidence is not secret, hence if you want to support Bersani even though Grillo said you shouldn't, you gonna take responsibility for it. And Grillo will likely kick you out of the party.

Point is: these people elected in the 5 stars movement are not professional politicians. If Grillo kicks em out, they might go back to political irrelevance in a heartbeat. I don't think they have much interest in jumping the ship right now.

 

[rhubroma]

I think winning an election is the worst thing he could do for long term popularity.
At least being in this position he can still blame the other parties for getting in the way. I mean he can put forth ideas that both the other two parties reject and then say look the establishment is working together against me. They are all just the same. Get rid of them, I can fix it all.

I have always said Grillo is simply the next Cola di Rienzo of the piazza. The Tribune, however, notwithstanding his popular support, especially among the emerging generation (like his medieval predecessor), should realize that seizing the platform is one thing, governing within the constitutional and democratic institutions entirely something else.

His voice is what many Italians, especially the young who have no future and are appalled by the career politicians who have been mismanaging, ruining and robbing everything for decades - mostly at their future expense - have wanted to hear. Grillo presents himself as their knight and promises to wreck the machine they so despise, yet apart from installing a dictatorship like Mussolini (though I'm convinced that a considerable quantity of his voting partisanship would be willing to accept just that), he will inevitably become part of that machine once inside parliament. So, unfortunately, you are right: Grillo's claiming a sizable stake in the action of Italy's governance is the most risky thing for his long term popularity. Then I don't like those who claim to point the way to salvation, with the insolent pride that makes them value themselves above other men, and their voluntarily circumscribed vision. In Grillo I detect the fierce intransigence of the sectarian in the presence of forms of government and democratic institutions that are not his own. For Grillo has no taste for building consensus with representatives of parties that many other Italians voted for, however that system may be rotten. His desire to run things from above comes with an autocrat’s mentality that is certainly more dangerous to the state, then what working through the democratic praxis to align Italy with EU expectations has for its citizenry's future.

I have watched his rise for many years and observed his hard core base and, not surprisingly, it has been traditionally made up of mostly nationalists (until recently), who tend to have a world view that is the inheritance of a certain right wing popularism that had its origins in fascism. Grillo’s rage and glaring vulgarity, as well as disdain for journalism and direct confrontation with his rivals, has been a personal indication of this. Whereas the core identity of post-war, democratic Italy has been founded upon an anti-fascism, for which his arrival (bound to a legitimate suffrage though it be) represents a step backwards. He has played upon the anger, fear, but also willingness for so many a young right leaning Italian to be submissive to a leader, to build his popularity along with copious anathemas and blood curling vaffa’s.

Ecco Grillo è un altro Cola di Rienzo di piazza. Il Tribune dovrebbe ricordare però che così non si fa in democrazia. Evidentemente i suoi elettori hanno bisogno di una messia. Ma quando le pecore avrà la capacità di capire che, essendo sottomessi a un leader, così non c'è né libertà né dignità?

"Behold Grillo is another Cola di Rienzo of the piazza. The Tribune should recall, however, that one does not act so in a democracy. Evidently his voters have need of a messiah. Though when will the sheep be able to understand that, being subjugated to a leader, there is neither liberty nor dignity in that state."

 

[Mad Elephant Man]

I have always said Grillo is simply the next Cola di Rienzo of the piazza. The Tribune, however, notwithstanding his popular support, especially among the emerging generation (like his medieval predecessor), should realize that seizing the platform is one thing, governing within the constitutional and democratic institutions entirely something else.

His voice is what many Italians, especially the young who have no future and are appalled by the career politicians who have been mismanaging, ruining and robbing everything for decades - mostly at their future expense - have wanted to hear. Grillo presents himself as their knight and promises to wreck the machine they so despise, yet apart from installing a dictatorship like Mussolini (though I'm convinced that a considerable quantity of his voting partisanship would be willing to accept just that), he will inevitably become part of that machine once inside parliament. So, unfortunately, you are right: Grillo's claiming a sizable stake in the action of Italy's governance is the most risky thing for his long term popularity. Then I don't like those who claim to point the way to salvation, with the insolent pride that makes them value themselves above other men, and their voluntarily circumscribed vision. In Grillo I detect the fierce intransigence of the sectarian in the presence of forms of government and democratic institutions that are not his own. For Grillo has no taste for building consensus with representatives of parties that many other Italians voted for, however that system may be rotten. His desire to run things from above comes with an autocrat’s mentality that is certainly more dangerous to the state, then what working through the democratic praxis to align Italy with EU expectations has for its citizenry's future.

I have watched his rise for many years and observed his hard core base and, not surprisingly, it has been traditionally made up of mostly nationalists (until recently), who tend to have a world view that is the inheritance of a certain right wing popularism that had its origins in fascism. Grillo’s rage and glaring vulgarity, as well as disdain for journalism and direct confrontation with his rivals, has been a personal indication of this. Whereas the core identity of post-war, democratic Italy has been founded upon an anti-fascism, for which his arrival (bound to a legitimate suffrage though it be) represents a step backwards. He has played upon the anger, fear, but also willingness for so many a young right leaning Italian to be submissive to a leader, to build his popularity along with copious anathemas and blood curling vaffa’s.

Ecco Grillo è un altro Cola di Rienzo di piazza. Il Tribune dovrebbe ricordare però che così non si fa in democrazia. Evidentemente i suoi elettori hanno bisogno di una messia. Ma quando le pecore avrà la capacità di capire che, essendo sottomessi a un leader, così non c'è né libertà né dignità?

"Behold Grillo is another Cola di Rienzo of the piazza. The Tribune should recall, however, that one does not act so in a democracy. Evidently his voters have need of a messiah. Though when will the sheep be able to understand that, being subjugated to a leader, there is neither liberty nor dignity in that state."

When there is no hope, only pain and hearthache, something that sets itself up as being different can seem to offer hope. A light of a new beginning, it raises the hearts of people as in desperation they grasp at the illogical. They reject what they believe has given them pain and seek any relief from it. Leaders like Grillo are able to exploit this but in reality they are offering nothing. The have no solutions, that can not govern any better than those they are replacing. When this is revealed, the hope is crushed, support disappears and they will never be trusted again.
Grillo will be popular while he stands on the sideline shouting abuse at those trying to keep the machinery of state moving. When it is his turn to grasp those levers and try and keep the country from total failure he will not know which ones to move and Italy will plunge further and further into chaos and hopelessness. It will probably take most of Europe down as well.

 

[auscyclefan94]

A daft woman on Qanda tried to argue that she got cancer because John Howard did not increase the tax-free threshold and that it is Labor that gave the woman her teeth and hair makeover. **** me! So many stupid people out there.

 

[movingtarget]

A daft woman on Qanda tried to argue that she got cancer because John Howard did not increase the tax-free threshold and that it is Labor that gave the woman her teeth and hair makeover. **** me! So many stupid people out there.

But Labor are so concerned about the poor that they reduced the sole parent pension by $100.00. Working for the people.

 

[auscyclefan94]

But Labor are so concerned about the poor that they reduced the sole parent pension by $100.00. Working for the people.

She also does not realise that growth in real wages was a significant 21% under Howard, practically nothing under Labor.

 

[movingtarget]

She also does not realise that growth in real wages was a significant 21% under Howard, practically nothing under Labor.

The whole Rooty Hill idea smacks of desperation. I don't think she's fooling anyone with half a brain then again some will be convinced but not in the numbers she needs.

 

[AndyMMT]

She also does not realise that growth in real wages was a significant 21% under Howard, practically nothing under Labor.

Unfortunately that doesnt really tell you very much as you dont know who captured those raises, this is much more telling its real wages compared to labour productivity (incidentaly most developed countries have almost the same trend)

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/bl...stralia_real_wages_productivity_1978_2010.jpg

Its not a defence of Gillard btw as by all accounts she has been pretty abysmal.

Sorry havent had a chance to look if you replied to my criticism of neoclassicals, this was my escape from this stuff so blown that but will do.

 

[Cobblestones]

When there is no hope, only pain and hearthache, something that sets itself up as being different can seem to offer hope. A light of a new beginning, it raises the hearts of people as in desperation they grasp at the illogical. They reject what they believe has given them pain and seek any relief from it. Leaders like Grillo are able to exploit this but in reality they are offering nothing. The have no solutions, that can not govern any better than those they are replacing. When this is revealed, the hope is crushed, support disappears and they will never be trusted again.
Grillo will be popular while he stands on the sideline shouting abuse at those trying to keep the machinery of state moving. When it is his turn to grasp those levers and try and keep the country from total failure he will not know which ones to move and Italy will plunge further and further into chaos and hopelessness. It will probably take most of Europe down as well.

I think this analysis falls short. It pre-supposes that the current (or now past) government of 'technocrats' actually tries to govern 'for the people' and not 'for the markets and banks'. If you assume the latter, then chances are that a jester at the 'levers of power' even if he moves them entirely randomly, will produce a better result for most.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Unfortunately that doesnt really tell you very much as you dont know who captured those raises, this is much more telling its real wages compared to labour productivity (incidentaly most developed countries have almost the same trend)

Its not a defence of Gillard btw as by all accounts she has been pretty abysmal.

Sorry havent had a chance to look if you replied to my criticism of neoclassicals, this was my escape from this stuff so blown that but will do.

I have replied to some of it but have been super busy and have had troubles with my computer. I agree with you on the wages part that factors such as who got those raises is important but the better industrial relations scheme under the Coalition was an important factor for growth in wages.

The whole Rooty Hill idea smacks of desperation. I don't think she's fooling anyone with half a brain then again some will be convinced but not in the numbers she needs.

Agreed. She said she was not campaigning and is now campaigning. Even in traditional Labor seats that are on a >10% margin they are in big trouble. Even if in 2pp terms Labor comes closer to the Coalition, it still will be very bad for them on a seat-by-seat basis.

 

[Ferminal]

Unfortunately that doesnt really tell you very much as you dont know who captured those raises, this is much more telling its real wages compared to labour productivity (incidentaly most developed countries have almost the same trend)

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/bl...stralia_real_wages_productivity_1978_2010.jpg

Its not a defence of Gillard btw as by all accounts she has been pretty abysmal.

http://mattcowgill.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/labours-shrinking-share/

Capital share of 0.4 is pretty high...

 

[AndyMMT]

http://mattcowgill.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/labours-shrinking-share/

Capital share of 0.4 is pretty high...

Way too high, what ACF doesnt realise about that graph is what that gap between the lines is which is of course profits going to capital, before that time the lines tracked each other but once that started moving apart capitalism had a problem in that consumption demand wasnt keeping pace with output...the solution consumer credit and housing bubbles...thats ended well hasnt it?
Somebody posted that US wealth inequality vid over on US politics I think. I was aware of the figures but never visualised it until I saw that...shocking! and UK & Aus are right behind the US in the gini coefficient... someone only has to play monopoly to understand how that works out (they dont realise that the "game" actually has a serious side)

 

[auscyclefan94]

http://mattcowgill.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/labours-shrinking-share/

Capital share of 0.4 is pretty high...

You have posted a blog from a trade unionist? Well done. Just imagine if we had a trade unionist way in Australia and what productivity and wages would be like in Australia. It would not be a very pretty picture at all.

AndyMMT, I will respond to what you just said sometime tomorrow.

 

[rhubroma]

I think this analysis falls short. It pre-supposes that the current (or now past) government of 'technocrats' actually tries to govern 'for the people' and not 'for the markets and banks'. If you assume the latter, then chances are that a jester at the 'levers of power' even if he moves them entirely randomly, will produce a better result for most.

The bold is the essence of what afflicts democracy today, in Italy and Europe, as much as in America. Unfortunately we seem to have arrived at a point of no return in this regard, which means the total prepotency and dominion of capital over human beings. Before that democracy has unfortunately offered no citizens' shield nor sanctuary, while has had to capitulate even any semblance of popular sovereignty to those strong powers that truly govern the world.

In the meantime Italy is without a government. Grillo is perhaps more open to a technocrat solution, than he certainly is to one in which his movement gives support to any of the parties. One of the platforms that he stood upon during his electoral campaign was that for decades the Italian parliament has been high jacked by the political parties (and in this he's correct), which has been reinforced by an electoral law that its own crafstman (Roberto Calderoli of the separatist, Northern League party, during Berlusconi's last government) cynically defined as a porcellum (a "filthy pig"). Unfortunately what Grillo obviously misses is that, for better or worse, in democracy you have political parties, which must confront themselves in order to arrive at compromises; otherwise it's called a dictatorship. What unnerves me about Grillo is, therefore, that per certain of his comportments he reminds me of Mussolini in 23. Italy beware.

The reason he has gained popularity though is because many Italians are fed up with the political parties and the career politicians, as well as the unconscionable costs imposed upon the citizenry to finance the so called cast, seeing them and it, in some individual cases quite incorrectly in others not; as pertaining to the same, inseparable and uniform fetid and corrupt porridge, which can no longer be stomached let alone digested in this moment when many struggle just to make ends meet.

In fact in response to criticism levied upon Grillo and his movement that its intransigence before the other voted in parties (which is justified under the facile alibi of merely maintaining an electoral promise not to collaborate with any party - in short the cast must go), demonstrates an irresponsibility that is anti-democratic and places the state hostage to the whims of a megalomaniac and those who elude themselves that he and M5S are the Savior of Italy. To this Vito Cimini, recently nominated M5S senator at a movement assembly in Rome, has stated: "The irresponsible ones are you among the parties who have led us to this terrible spot; the irresponsible ones are you who were incapable of introducing an anti-conflict of interests law; the irresponsible are you who couldn't effect a pensions reform that didn't leave some without one, while being capable of placing a tax on people's primary homes even if they currently find themselves unemployed, while being capable of authorizing garbage dumps and shopping malls without limit, responsible for having covered up mass poisoning by industries like Ilva, incapable of realizing a serious anti-corruption law, incapable of saying no to the colonialization of US military bases, incapable of reducing the costs of politics in a moment in which a third of Italians struggle to arrive at the end of the month on their appallingly low salaries...and we're the ones who should be responsible? If you even have a minimum sense of responsibility, you should simply pack your bags...and disappear!"

Such reasoning is difficult to reject and ignore. Pity that the work that needs to be done cannot be otherwise except through the constitutional parameters, which necessarily involves a functioning government that doesn't work on mandates sent down from above, but through all the democratic praxis that such an institution healthily requires. If M5S and its charismatic leader doesn't want to be transformed into something merely odious (as well as dangerous), then this is a lesson it must learn immediately.

 

[Ferminal]

You have posted a blog from a trade unionist? Well done. Just imagine if we had a trade unionist way in Australia and what productivity and wages would be like in Australia. It would not be a very pretty picture at all.

I don't care who he works for, do you dispute the data? What is your own estimation of the capital/labour share? As a practicing economist he's far more qualified than you or I.

re: "productivity" - the whole union/labour restrictions is heavily overplayed, a minor issue.

 

[AndyMMT]

You have posted a blog from a trade unionist? Well done.

The figures are correct heres the aus gov figures... scroll down table 9.9


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@...~Household income, expenditure and wealth~193

Pity didnt go back further to the start of the chart I used. Back far enough though to show a rise upwards, not as bad as the US of course (as i said both UK/Aus behind but going the same way)

Looks like the US is deviating away from the Pareto principle although slowly (could be within parameters though granted)

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I had a big LOL