Worlds Copenhagen 2011

[Ferminal]

Ok so wildly different to what mapmyride use, which get their info off googlemaps I think. Still, watch that video and tell me that uphill finish was 1.4%?

I get 2-3% from Google.

 

[Sciatic]

You can tell we've had no race to watch this Saturday given how intricate the discussion has gotten regarding a stage back in July.

But I know, it's a way to make some reasonable forecasts about how next weekend will play out.

 

[Tank Engine]

Pluses for team GB
1. Of all the well represented nations, they are the one that really resembles a team.
2. There is no argument about their Plan A.
3. From the forecast, hopefully the weather.

Negatives
1. The final hill is definitely not ideal for Cav. OK, he won MSR, the Poggio is clearly harder than the final hill here, but it's several km from the finish and not 100-200m.
2. All of the other big nations will want the race to be harder than team GB does.
3. There's no real plan B. If Cav gets dropped before the finale, I guess Geraint would become the leader, but on a good day that means top 10 in a small bunch sprint.

As for the favourites, I would say this is a parcours for a strongman sprinter: Thor, EBH (possibly, he seems to have been a bit off colour recently), Farrar, Greipel, Freire. I wouldn't rule out Sagan and of course there's that Belgian geezer who wins from time to time (i.e. almost weekly).

 

[RedheadDane]

As for the favourites, I would say this is a parcours for a strongman sprinter: Thor, EBH (possibly, he seems to have been a bit off colour recently), Farrar, Greipel, Freire. I wouldn't rule out Sagan and of course there's that Belgian geezer who wins from time to time (i.e. almost weekly).

Who?

I actually caught myself wondering that briefly...

 

[El Pistolero]

Who?

I actually caught myself wondering that briefly...

Stijn Devolder duh.

 

[RedheadDane]

Stijn Devolder duh.

Geeh! Thanks for telling me!

Seriously... I just had a temporary brain switch-off. It can happen.

 

[greenedge]

I don't think Geraint should be plan B. He is not going so well at ToB. ( Dropped on Stage 6 )

I hope Goss can spring a surprise. Gerrans shall hopefully put in a few attacks/ mark Gilbert. Italy don't have a great team but they have concocted a master plan, shall it work or not???

 

[luckyboy]

Gilbert is impossible for anyone to mark uphill. Never mind Gerrans.

 

[will10]

I don't think Geraint should be plan B. He is not going so well at ToB. ( Dropped on Stage 6 )

I hope Goss can spring a surprise. Gerrans shall hopefully put in a few attacks/ mark Gilbert. Italy don't have a great team but they have concocted a master plan, shall it work or not???

Thomas was looking very good and then crashed on stage 6.

 

[taiwan]

I don't think Goss would be a surprise. One of the top 5 favourites, IMO, because he's won uphill sprints against strong fields. He beat Farrar a couple of times.

What about Farrar? Normally he'd be a strong candidate FTW, but his team looks weak, and he seems understandably uninterested this year. Still a dark horse, though, or...

 

[Descender]

Goss has been dull after his MSR win...

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Goss has been dull after his MSR win...

I'd point to his team's biases rather than an example of his form. A good 2nd between EBH and Thor in the tour, and a similar second with some good scalps at the Suisse. Lately he hasn't done anything, but I don't think that means he can't.

A lot of this coming race has to do with how it is raced.Too many teams would benefit from a narrow selection at the end. The Cavendish's, Farrar's and other experienced flat sprinters who get dropped won't get dropped by much; the course isn't that decisive. But there is enough for a team to put those flat guys under tough pressure. Again, it depends how it is raced.

On the same end, unless a late jump is really populated, the teams' workers will be around late enough to pull them back.

I think it will be very similar to last year, but the climber-type attacks will be less of a scare. I think the winner will be somewhere between the EBH/Sagan/Friere sprinters and the Cav/Farrar. Goss fits the profile.

Goss FTW

 

[taiwan]

Sensible post there.

 

[El Pistolero]

Goss is a party boy. If he becomes World champion you'll see a very crappy Goss next season. At least in the first half of the season.

 

[Eric8-A]

Goss is my number 1 pick for the Worlds. It's the first time I ever root for someone from HTC.

 

[Swede1]

So is this the best Cancellara has ever climbed? I hope he will be competative in the WC this year. He may be trying to go under the radar before the race so that he can launch an attack and surprise everyone.

 

[hfer07]

I Finally took the time to "dissect" the parcours with the offical map, videos and other aids to get a feeling of what is going to be like and based on that i'm going to say the following:

1-) the "steeper bumps" are mostly in the first 8K with no real effect on the course-although they will indeed wear out the legs
2-) the so called "final slope" will not discourage the pure sprinters at all- the only technical part is the right hand turn before the runway towards the finish line, which basically is going to break the rhythm/speed a bit-but I cannot foresee it as a challenge at all for the likes of Cavendish, Farrar, Greipel, Goss, Haussler, Freire, etc. What I see is the disadvantage for someone like Gilbert & Gatto due to lack of steepness in that last segment of the race....
3-) The only factor that might affect the race is "the weather"-anything else comes down to men power & tactics
4-) the other "favorites"-apart form sprinters-are the "roullers" which might profit from the bumpy terrain-riders like Cancellara, Nuyens, Voeckler, EBH,Hushov, etc.- cannot be counted out at all

here is the video of the parcours:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeE5aWZY8pE&feature=player_embedded

 

[Siriuscat]

Voeckler as World Champion would be fantastic!!

 

[taiwan]

Voeckler as World Champion would be fantastic!!

On the basis of how I think they'd wear the jersey next season, I'd take a Gilbert, Sagan or Cancellara win happily. Or Cav, actually.

 

[Swede1]

I actually would like to say Cancellara win. Because if he won that probably means that it was raced hard and there were lots of attacks! He would also wear the jersey well.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Goss is a party boy. If he becomes World champion you'll see a very crappy Goss next season. At least in the first half of the season.

Well being a party boy has worked for him pretty well. Look at his results in the past two seasons.

2010
4 Tour of Qatar, Stage 6 : Al Wakra - Doha Corniche
2 Giro d'Italia, Stage 2 : Amsterdam (Ned) - Utrecht (Ned)
1 Giro d'Italia, Stage 9 : Frosinone - Cava de' Tirreni
1 Philadelphia International Championship
1 Danmark Rundt / Tour of Denmark, Stage 1 : Holstebro - Holstebro
2 Post Danmark Rundt / Tour of Denmark, Stage 4 : Nyborg - Odense
1 GP Ouest France - Plouay

2011
2 National Championships Australia (Buninyong) R.R.
1 Tour Down Under, Criterium : Cancer Council Classic
1 Tour Down Under, Stage 1 : Mawson Lakes - Angaston
3 Tour Down Under, Stage 3 : Unley - Stirling
5 Tour Down Under, Stage 4 : Norwood - Strathalbyn
3 Tour Down Under, Stage 5 : McLaren Vale - Willunga
3 Tour Down Under, Stage 6 : Adelaide City Circuit
2 Tour Down Under
1 Tour Down Under, Points classification
1 Tour of Oman, Stage 2 : Muscat - Al Wutayya
3 Tour of Oman, Stage 3 : Sur - Sur
2 Paris - Nice, Stage 2 : Montfort-l’Amaury - Amilly
1 Paris - Nice, Stage 3 : Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire - Nuits-Saint-Georges
1 Milano - Sanremo
3 Tour of California, Stage 2 : Nevada City - Sacramento
1 Tour of California, Stage 8 : Santa Clarita - Thousand Oaks
2 Tour de Suisse, Stage 8 : Tübach - Schaffhausen
2 Tour de France, Stage 6 : Dinan - Lisieux

I find it hard to believe he'll have a crappy season. Gossy is a consistent, solid peformer.

 

[auscyclefan94]

On the basis of how I think they'd wear the jersey next season, I'd take a Gilbert, Sagan or Cancellara win happily. Or Cav, actually.

If Cav wins it in a hard race with a fair bit of attacking where he really has t work for it then I will be happy. Same principle for any other sprinter though in saying that if a sprinter is going to win it then it seems likely that they will have to do little to earn it which is why I will be barracking for the attacking riders such as Gilbert or Cancellara.

fyi, Durbridge will absoultely kill it tomorrow in the U23 ITT.

 

[dlwssonic]

I will be soooo happy if spartacus wins, he just needs to get back his classics form.

 

[greenedge]

If Cav wins it in a hard race with a fair bit of attacking where he really has t work for it then I will be happy. Same principle for any other sprinter though in saying that if a sprinter is going to win it then it seems likely that they will have to do little to earn it which is why I will be barracking for the attacking riders such as Gilbert or Cancellara.

fyi, Durbridge will absoultely kill it tomorrow in the U23 ITT.

Totally agree. Last year everyone was attacking, though Spain disappeared. Thor won so that's why i consider him a worthy winner. Attacking riders are the riders to cheer for. However i also like the idea of it being a tactical finish and underdogs going well. Hopefully Goss can do well. Of course if anyone finishes 3rd they shall still get an article written about them here on CN


Durbridge FTW. Pls. Hepburn 2nd hopefully. I wonder how Phinney will go in the elite men's. Does the course suit him???

 

[Tuarts]

If Cav can win through hiding in the bunch and from a sprint then good him. It's up to the other teams to make the pace as hard as possible so that doesn't eventuate.