Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[tjwracer]

Hm. If Sastre really sets his mind to it, I consider him to be the Giro favourite. Out of these four riders I consider Evans to be the weakest climber.

I dont think so evans showed that he is a better climber then Basso in the vuelta he will certainly be stronger in the giro but sastre will be a problem

 

[auscyclefan94]

I dont think so evans showed that he is a better climber then Basso in the vuelta he will certainly be stronger in the giro but sastre will be a problem

He can take sastre in the mountains! in the uphill time trial he may take some time as even though it is on sastre's favoured terrain he is vulnerable against the clock. Just show you the results of a mountain tt in the vuelta...

1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 33.06 (31.0 km/h)
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0.31
3 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
4 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 1.02
5 David Moncoutié (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 1.09
6 Ezequiel Mosquera Miguez (Spa) Xacobeo Galicia 1.15
7 Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 1.16
8 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Lampre 1.31
9 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 1.37
10 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 1.57

Yes he did finish 4th but on but got beaten by Leipheimer who is similar to evans in which they are strong tters as well as gc guys. Sastre couldn't really go with Menchov in the mountains so how is he going to go with evans. i personally think pellizotti is the favourite.

 

[maltiv]

Sastre couldn't really go with Menchov in the mountains so how is he going to go with evans.

He couldn't go with Menchov in the mountains? Sastre won two mountain top finishes around 30 seconds ahead of Menchov, but then he had that bad day that lost him quite some time. Not counting his bad day at stage 17, Sastre actually gained quite some time on Menchov in the mountains...

 

[karlboss]

He couldn't go with Menchov in the mountains? Sastre won two mountain top finishes around 30 seconds ahead of Menchov, but then he had that bad day that lost him quite some time. Not counting his bad day at stage 17, Sastre actually gained quite some time on Menchov in the mountains...

Wasn't seen. Menchov marked Diluca, nothing else. He didn't try to go with sastre.

 

[BroDeal]

He couldn't go with Menchov in the mountains? Sastre won two mountain top finishes around 30 seconds ahead of Menchov, but then he had that bad day that lost him quite some time. Not counting his bad day at stage 17, Sastre actually gained quite some time on Menchov in the mountains...

Maybe if Menchov had made two desperate attempts to gain time in the mountains then he would have had a bad day also. Instead he rode within his limits and never cracked.

 

[Highlander]

I actually forgot about Evans at first and only added the last sentence as an afterthought. I suppose it does make my post look rather odd.


Even so there'd be many teams to help catch them and their breakaway Companions might not be to cooperative.

Most likely.

I agree, just look last year when Cadel tried to go in a break. He was far from universally loved by his companions. If any of the GC threats from the Shack tries to do this, I can't see the riders in the breakaway that happy or any team with aspirations for a podium finish letting them get away.

 

[theyoungest]

I dont think so evans showed that he is a better climber then Basso in the vuelta he will certainly be stronger in the giro but sastre will be a problem

At what point in the Vuelta did he show that he is a better climber than Basso?

Sastre couldn't really go with Menchov in the mountains so how is he going to go with evans.

I think Menchov has a slight edge on Evans in climbing skills. As for Sastre, well, with him you just never know, but he really needs a climb to suit his strengths. He needs some time to find his rhythm. But when he's found it, he can outclimb both Evans and Menchov.

 

[BroDeal]

I think Menchov has a slight edge on Evans in climbing skills. As for Sastre, well, with him you just never know, but he really needs a climb to suit his strengths. He needs some time to find his rhythm. But when he's found it, he can outclimb both Evans and Menchov.

I don't see it. Evans has always been a better climber at the Tour than Menchov.

The problem for Evans and Menchov is that they are good tempo climbers on moderate grades but they are at a disadvantage on the really steep stuff that is occasionally featured in the Giro and the Vuelta.

Menchov appears to be very good at choosing GT courses that suit him, something Evans is either bad at or has not had the ability to make the choice. Evans would have won last year's Giro as well as the 2007 Vuelta.

 

[theyoungest]

Evans would have won last year's Giro as well as the 2007 Vuelta.

Well, he didn't compete, so we'll never know. Menchov's form in last year's Giro was impressive. Now if he could only bring that kind of form to the Tour. Somehow he never quite "has it" in France.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't see it. Evans has always been a better climber at the Tour than Menchov.

The problem for Evans and Menchov is that they are good tempo climbers on moderate grades but they are at a disadvantage on the really steep stuff that is occasionally featured in the Giro and the Vuelta.

Menchov appears to be very good at choosing GT courses that suit him, something Evans is either bad at or has not had the ability to make the choice. Evans would have won last year's Giro as well as the 2007 Vuelta.

and the 2009 vuelta and the 08 and 07 tour

 

[zapata]

and the 2009 vuelta and the 08 and 07 tour

So, that's five grand tours he "would have" won? Great contrafactual palmares. I never really cared for him, but I'm beginning to think he's due to actually win one.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So, that's five grand tours he "would have" won? Great contrafactual palmares. I never really cared for him, but I'm beginning to think he's due to actually win one.

He really should have at least two. It would be a damm shame if he didn't win one. And maybe a classic like Fleche. i think he can win that.

 

[zapata]

He really should have at least two. It would be a damm shame if he didn't win one. And maybe a classic like Fleche. i think he can win that.

fleche, he lost in the sprint to kirchen last year? I have no doubt that he's as strong as the rest, but possibly not the best when it comes to sprinting and timing of the sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

fleche, he lost in the sprint to kirchen last year? I have no doubt that he's as strong as the rest, but possibly not the best when it comes to sprinting and timing of the sprint.

that was two years ago and he really kicked a little too early.

 

[zapata]

that was two years ago and he really kicked a little too early.

Ah, sorry; even in the middle of january I think of 2008 as "last year", when the classics are concerned. But yes, and "this year", 2009, he was also one of the first to go? I think he can probably win a race like that, but it must be done like the world championships. sprinting against the likes of cunego, valverde, sanchez, he'll lose every time.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Ok, I was a year off, but I'm not letting you guys forget I called this.

 

[Polish]

There, I said it. I think Cadel, with this BMC team, can win the 2010 Tour. He can certainly win the 2010 Giro, although that will be a good barometer.

Realistically, if he hangs on the climbs, he can out-TT the Schlecks easily.

The only problem is Contador. Cadel will drop Lance next year. Mark it down.

Wrong.
Lance finished ahead of Cadel.

 

[El Pistolero]

and the 2009 vuelta and the 08 and 07 tour:(

You mean the Tour where he got put on minutes on every mountain stage despite Contador having numerous flat tires?

Tell me, how would he have won that Tour?