Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[Moose McKnuckles]

There, I said it. I think Cadel, with this BMC team, can win the 2010 Tour. He can certainly win the 2010 Giro, although that will be a good barometer.

Realistically, if he hangs on the climbs, he can out-TT the Schlecks easily.

The only problem is Contador. Cadel will drop Lance next year. Mark it down.

 

[53 x 11]

I suppose there could be like some massive accident or something.

Why not...................... If he wins, It will be a dull tour though.

 

[BroDeal]

Uh, no he cannot. Contador can now time trial better than Evans, and he climbs much better. The Schlecklet will improve his time trial this year. He will still lose a little time to Evans in the long time trial, but he will make it up on the climbs. Both Contador and Schleck have teams that will give better support to their GC riders than BMC will give to Evans. Evans will finish third if he has a good Tour.

Evans should dedicate his season to winning the Giro, which he has a pretty good chance of doing. It is too bad he did not try in 2009 when the course was a little more suited to him.

 

[UpTheRoad]

Cadel in first, Leipheimer in second.

It's possible. Wait, better yet...it's probable.

 

[hfer07]

Evans had his best chance to win the TDF in 2008. He's a great cyclist and his best chances of winning a GT are either in the Giro or La Vuelta-the Tour is out of his reach-not only because his age but the emerging/younger competition is also an important factor.
best wishes for him in BMC!!!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

But how can one say he has a better chance of winning the Giro? The Giro caters towards explosive climbers. I'm not sure Cadel can compete with climbers of that level.

My reasoning is that Cadel can benefit from both his team and other teams (e.g., RadioShack) who will chase down the favorites.

I'm not saying he's better than Contador. I'm just saying he has a better chance than some are giving him.

 

[cyclegeek]

Cadel is definetly in the picture. The question is will BMC be any better or worse than LOTTO as support. Unfortunetly I think worse would be the answer. No doubt that Cadel is a fighter and pure class, just don't know if theres enough bullets in the gun.

 

[mherm79]

Cadel will need allies in the Peleton if he stands a chance of reaching the podium. If BMC, RadioShack and maybe Sky work together to limit their losses on the climbs to AC and AS then we're in for a good battle.

if things turn out like previous years, where Cadel has to go it alone, then he stands no chance.

 

[erader]

i'm not sure cadel can win a GT but no way Cadel wins a GT with BMC.

ed rader

 

[BroDeal]

But how can one say he has a better chance of winning the Giro? The Giro caters towards explosive climbers. I'm not sure Cadel can compete with climbers of that level.

Lower level of competition. For one thing, Contador won't be there. Menchov won two GTs (and inherited another) and he is not an explosive climber. Evans can handle Menchov. DiLuca won't be there. He just has to deal with Liquigas.

 

[hfer07]

But how can one say he has a better chance of winning the Giro? The Giro caters towards explosive climbers. I'm not sure Cadel can compete with climbers of that level.

My reasoning is that Cadel can benefit from both his team and other teams (e.g., RadioShack) who will chase down the favorites.

I'm not saying he's better than Contador. I'm just saying he has a better chance than some are giving him.

*Giro contenders aren't the same as the TDF, and even if they're competing, they do it either for training or in support of an already designated leader.
*Indeed the mountains are steeper & the climbers are more explosive-but Cadel is a good climber with the ability to limit the damage done by the pure ones.
by the time the race reaches the ITT-he can take it back, and gain lots on those climbers.
*The Giro is a race for a very strong Individual Rider not necessary carrying a super strong team behind him,in order to win it.-in the Giro, the race itself unfolds by how you manage your nearest contenders day by day.

all the above is already proved in 2008 by a weaker Contador, and last year by a very Intelligent race done by Menchov.
Cadel in my book matches the requirements to win the Giro, and I hope he makes it a priority, instead of the Tour.

 

[Anonymous]

I think he can win the Tour, but i'm not sure if its in 2010.

2011 and 2012 are more likely, and hopefully, the Tour organisers get over their love affair with minimal TT kms and go back to the tradition where time trialling actually was important. I wanna see a prologue and two TTs like 07 and 08 when Cadel was on the 2nd step and within one minute of overall victory.

That said, even with minimal TTs in the Giro, I think he has a great chance of a podium, if not a win, in Italy. Perhaps the Team TT will put pellizotti further away, and even tho Pellizotti won the Plan de Corones TT, I wouldn't write off Cadel in that TT. People think cadel isnt a pure explosive climber, but he can still ride uphill faster than most. So an ITT uphill is quite suitable to his characteristics. I reckon the Giro will come down to the final TT just like it did in 09.

Either way, good luck to Cadel in 2010. Be supporting him at the Giro and Tour (or Vuelta depending on invites)

 

[cyclegeek]

Lower level of competition. For one thing, Contador won't be there. Menchov won two GTs (and inherited another) and he is not an explosive climber. Evans can handle Menchov. DiLuca won't be there. He just have to deal with Liquigas.

I think you hit it on the head, "lower level of competition". No doubt Cadel could handle Menchov. Liquigas is the wildcard. Lot of good riders with many options, Italian tour, pride factor, etc.

 

[Anonymous]

*Giro contenders aren't the same as the TDF, and even if they're competing, they do it either for training or in support of an already designated leader.
*Indeed the mountains are steeper & the climbers are more explosive-but Cadel is a good climber with the ability to limit the damage done by the pure ones.
by the time the race reaches the ITT-he can take it back, and gain lots on those climbers.
*The Giro is a race for a very strong Individual Rider not necessary carrying a super strong team behind him,in order to win it.-in the Giro, the race itself unfolds by how you manage your nearest contenders day by day.

all the above is already proved in 2008 by a weaker Contador, and last year by a very Intelligent race done by Menchov.
Cadel in my book match the requirements to win the Giro, and I hope he makes it a priority, instead of the Tour.

+1, great post, well said.

only slight problem I see is the Team TT. BMC might not quite have it to match Pellizotti's L-Gas squad so hopefully Cadel doesn't lose too much there.
---

Also someone mentioned the support Cadel will get from BMC versus Lotto. Personally, I see it as this: purely based on physical strength, Lotto was better. BUt based on team dynamics and motivation, I think BMC will be better. Attitude plays a huge role in this sport, and I think the BMC attitude and focus towards bike racing will become a factor in Cadel's mentality throughout his GT attempts under JL and BMC.

 

[auscyclefan94]

BMC won't be sending an overly strong team to the vuelta but with John lelangue who has tatically won a tour ont he director seat is a big help.

I posted this in another thread

I think he would need a tdf course like 2007 or 2006 where ther was alot of time trialling. i think the other teams like saxo, radioshack, garmin, sky, rabobank and possibly BMC that they can't wait to the final climb to attack or hurt contador. I feel that they will also have to put pressure in the cobbled stages whre 1 or 2 of the gc guys will falter. BMC with burghardt, ballan and hincapie might excel there.

I think it's possible if Contador is out of the picture, with guys like Hincapie, Ballan and Burghardt on the team for the flats/cobbles BMC could really put the hammer down and possibly eliminate some of the favourites.

With the support of BMC, they maybe young but their are a lot of riders who have some firepower on the climbs. Guys like Thomas Frei , Santambrogio and Mathias Frank are very good climbers and Frei and Frank are also strong in the itt. Hincapie will be a big factor as he is always handy and can do anything for a team leader.

 

[the big ring]

...
Also someone mentioned the support Cadel will get from BMC versus Lotto. Personally, I see it as this: purely based on physical strength, Lotto was better. BUt based on team dynamics and motivation, I think BMC will be better. Attitude plays a huge role in this sport, and I think the BMC attitude and focus towards bike racing will become a factor in Cadel's mentality throughout his GT attempts under JL and BMC.

I would not know, looking at the rosters, which team is better - but regardless, that judgement for now can only be made on paper - the BMC team are untested in GT racing.

On an individual rider basis, I do not remember many Lotto riders being anywhere near Cadel and if there was one, Hincapie would match that, and Ballan (imo) should match any Lotto climber that ever "supported" Cadel in previous Tours. My memory for riders and the help they provided is poor though, so I could be missing large swathes of support Cadel received in previous Tours.

What I found with Lotto was the way the team management undermined Cadel and his efforts, primarily through their interactions with the press. Too often they put him down or did not seem to work with him (eg: 2009 Giro participation announcements, etc).

I am very interested to see how the BMC management provides support - through their interviews with the press - for Cadel. The riders will be another matter altogether, and I would tend to agree that attitude plays a large part. These guys have something to prove.

I noticed in another CN article, that Lance claimed to be stressed / upset when Hincapie missed out on the yellow jersey in TdF 2009, and blamed LA and the Astana team for this. GH and LA must have a strong bond from all the years riding together - Hincapie was there for all 7 victories, and I know what being in a victorious team feels like - the bonding is intense.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-and-schleck-hard-to-beat-in-2010-armstrong-says

Another difficult situation for him involved a former teammate, George Hincapie, who rode for Columbia-HTC at the Tour. "The biggest problem was situated in Pontarlier when George Hincapie just missed out on the yellow jersey. That was stressful. George thought that we had ridden against him, which we did not. The American TV stations jumped on it. It was a mess. George didn't want to speak to any of us. For weeks.”

A smart DS (or someone vindictive, like me ;-)), would exploit that potential for inflicting stress on another team captain to its fullest potential. Here's hoping :-D

 

[auscyclefan94]

But how can one say he has a better chance of winning the Giro? The Giro caters towards explosive climbers. I'm not sure Cadel can compete with climbers of that level.

My reasoning is that Cadel can benefit from both his team and other teams (e.g., RadioShack) who will chase down the favorites.

I'm not saying he's better than Contador. I'm just saying he has a better chance than some are giving him.

+1

As good as contador has become in an ITT, he is not in the same league as Evans or Leipheimer in a flat tt like the one in Bordeaux to Pauillac for this years tour. He will be need to be within 1min 15 or conti going into that time trial or he will be no chance. other teams need to gang up on conti throughout the tour or the same as this year will happen. the cobbles are the key.

 

[595RED]

Evans and the tour

Not taking anything away from Cadel, I mean his results are awesome but I fear when it comes to July he will not match up against the Schleks and certainly not Conta whom is a few notches above everyone. No one can out tt or climb him when the hammer drops.
Cadel is better off to target the Giro where these guys are not present, here he can have a good chance of competing for the win.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Where are you from Moose Knuckles???

If you think he canc certainly win the giro and also win the tour are you suggesting the tour/giro double? Just the thought of that makes me wet myself and the thought of some of the posters on here (especially dim and timmy loves rabo) reactions if he did that...

 

[msjett]

@auscyclefan, I am not sure they would cope with all the gloating from the aussies on here.

 

[Galic Ho]

There, I said it. I think Cadel, with this BMC team, can win the 2010 Tour. He can certainly win the 2010 Giro, although that will be a good barometer.

Realistically, if he hangs on the climbs, he can out-TT the Schlecks easily.

The only problem is Contador. Cadel will drop Lance next year. Mark it down.

I think you are confused. You say Cadel can win le Tour in 2010. Then there is the bold. You posted in 2010. Cadel will drop Lance this year and any year he races Big Tex. No need to wait till next year if you think he'll win it this year. Unless you know something we don't? Is the Shack not racing?

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think you are confused. You say Cadel can win le Tour in 2010. Then there is the bold. You posted in 2010. Cadel will drop Lance this year and any year he races Big Tex. No need to wait till next year if you think he'll win it this year. Unless you know something we don't? Is the Shack not racing?

He doesn't have to drop contador... stay within descent reach of contador and then we have the final tt which will not suit contador.
PLUS

Cobbles are the key in 2010... The tour will be lost for some after the 3rd or 4th day...

 

[Galic Ho]

Lower level of competition. For one thing, Contador won't be there. Menchov won two GTs (and inherited another) and he is not an explosive climber. Evans can handle Menchov. DiLuca won't be there. He just has to deal with Liquigas.

That is a clear description of the competition for the Maglia Rosa. Cadel only has to handle Menchov, Pellizotti and Sastre. He can do that. Mind you, it will be close. Hopefully Liquigas have inner team squabbles and blow their chances. They can field a very strong outfit that will be hard to beat.

 

[Cerberus]

He doesn't have to drop contador... stay within descent reach of contador and then we have the final tt which will not suit contador.
PLUS

Cobbles are the key in 2010... The tour will be lost for some after the 3rd or 4th day...

Cadel might take time on Contador on the last time trial, but not much time. I don't see Cadel staying within 1-2 minutes of Contador on the climbs. Perhaps he can limit his loses to Schleck, though I doubt that as well, but not Contador. Losing Contador on the cobles (or bad form or injury) is the only real chance anyone except possibly Schleck has of beating Contador next year.

 

[Galic Ho]

He doesn't have to drop contador... stay within descent reach of contador and then we have the final tt which will not suit contador.
PLUS

Cobbles are the key in 2010... The tour will be lost for some after the 3rd or 4th day...

They are for 7 or 17 kilometres (can't remember which). Cobbles will sort Sweet F%#K All, except who wins the days stage. Contador will not lose time in the Northern France stages. Cadel stay with Contador in the hills! Alberto improved last year. Schleck couldn't keep up with him. This year there are more hills. Cadel can only come third, second if someone has an injury. First if all the planets align and all of Australia prays and God answers.

I'll agree that to beat Contador will require one to think outside the box. I know how to do it. Getting there is nigh on impossible. Beat him to the top of a major climb and then drop him by 10 or 20 seconds in the descent. That is how to do it. Won't happen though unless Samu can pull it off, or Cancellara. As for the ITT, it is not 50km's. Remember Contador's jersey in Annecy. Spanish national ITT champion. He is as good as Cadel (when Cadel is on fire, which he hasn't been since 2007 in a GT chrono) or better. The ITT is 40 clics, Contador himself has stated that is the ideal distance for him. Cadel takes no time on Contador and if he does it is minimal, a few seconds. I'm not saying this to be a ***, but Cadel needs to be realistic. Go for the Giro, have a crack at the Tour (where a 3rd place is a strong possibility considering Valverde and Samu will be there to) if BMC get an invite, and then work for the team at nationals and get Sutton or Haussler a rainbow jersey. That would be a monumental year.

Aussiecyclefan94, were you surprised when Contador won the ITT in Annecy? I wasn't. I knew he'd be close to Cancellara. The majority of fans and experts were surprised. I wasn't. The writing had been on the wall since the prior 4 months. Alberto Contador is so good, he can beat you anywhere. Which is why I was saying before the Tour (not on this site) that Cadel needed to improve his climbing, because he could not rely on his ITT to make up time. It just isn't enough anymore. Maybe if the course was 60kms, but it isn't.