Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[auscyclefan94]

Attacking won't help him because he can neither drop nor follow Contador on the climbs. As for his team it isn't stronger let alone "much stronger". It's doubtful that either Ballan or Hincapie will be there when the Saxo Bank train is done. I suppose it's possible Evans will get lucky on the Cobbles and drop AC, but that's more likely to hand the victory to Schleck than to Evans.

On a completely flat final time trial, schlecks place is not guranteed in the gc if evans isn' too far away from him.

 

[moi123]

There, I said it. I think Cadel, with this BMC team, can win the 2010 Tour. He can certainly win the 2010 Giro, although that will be a good barometer.

Realistically, if he hangs on the climbs, he can out-TT the Schlecks easily.

The only problem is Contador. Cadel will drop Lance next year. Mark it down.

With a smart plan, he can win the tour for sure.
When you choose the ideal moments to attack, you will win.
But can you find them?

And yes also contador can make mistakes

 

[DavidVilla7]

With a smart plan, he can win the tour for sure.
When you choose the ideal moments to attack, you will win.
But can you find them?

And yes also contador can make mistakes

Yep and that's exactly what lance is going to do.

 

[the big ring]

Horner, Popovych and Gilbert (not at the Tour) are all better climbers than Ballan.

On paper perhaps - which is what I said. Only Horner comes to mind when remembering anyone ever "supporting" Cadel - mountains or not. To list Popovych in any thread concerning Cadel and team support is laughable. As for adding a (not at the Tour) caveat - well, that's what we're discussing so again, not following your point.

You then wrote a whole bunch of stuff I can't be bothered responding to beyond this: I pity the fool who judges people they've never met.

 

[Angliru]

Imagine Sastre winning and relegating Cadel to second again. Wishful thinking on my behalf, but it would be hilarious. Perennial bridesmaid. Wow, this year is looking good.

Not another Spaniard relegating Cadel to a lower step on the podium?!! Auscyclefan won't be able to handle it-he may be on suicide watch.

Sastre has stated he's definitely doing the Giro and with a climber's course he could actually take it. I can respect Sastre as a realist and he sees the course favoring his abilities. It would make for a very interesting battle between Sastre and Pellizotti.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Cadel can win the tour because first he has changed his riding style and is more agressive. He will have to attack at the tour to win it, and that will make the tour exciting to watch because he will go again and again because he is that motivated. the cobbled stages may do him well also, BMC is a much stronger team then he has had before so that will be interesting to see him he puts guys like Hincapie and Ballan on the front. He will also be much better suported in the mountains which we have never seen when he was with Silence.

Yes I agree, he is going to have to seize the day, to win the tour you have to throw caution to the wind and be willing to lose 10 minutes to win the tour. In 2008, I don't think he was able to attack after the crash and in 2007, not being able to chase over the peyreousuode and losing 1min 50 over to Conti on the stage to Plateau De Beille is where he lost those tour's. Hincapie can be and i think/hope that he will be better help than anyone else ever than Lotto other than probably Horner.

Attacking won't help him because he can neither drop nor follow Contador on the climbs. As for his team it isn't stronger let alone "much stronger". It's doubtful that either Ballan or Hincapie will be there when the Saxo Bank train is done. I suppose it's possible Evans will get lucky on the Cobbles and drop AC, but that's more likely to hand the victory to Schleck than to Evans.

it's funny how you say attacking won't help him as many have criticised him in the past for that.If Evans is within 1min 30 of Schleck he can take him in the time trial. It is more flat than the one in 2007 to Angouleme and if the wind is a head thna he could take Schleck.

Trust me, I believe Contador is a hot favourite for this year but not unbeatable. I agree 100% with Moi123...

This maybe a little premature but I made a possible tour squad. What do you think.

1. Evans (leader)
2. Hincapie (domestique for flats and climbs) good tt'er
3. Ballan (domestique for flats and hilly stages)
4. Kroon (domestique for flats and hilly stages)
5. Santambrogio (domestique for climbs) good tt'er
6. Frank (domestique for climbs) good tt'er
7.Morabito (domestique for flats) OR Burghardt
8. Moos (domestique for climbs)
9. Frei (domestique for climbs) good tt'er

 

[auscyclefan94]

Not another Spaniard relegating Cadel to a lower step on the podium?!! Auscyclefan won't be able to handle it-he may be on suicide watch.

Sastre has stated he's definitely doing the Giro and with a climber's course he could actually take it. I can respect Sastre as a realist and he sees the course favoring his abilities. It would make for a very interesting battle between Sastre and Pellizotti.

fair point.... I will be pretty ****ed off if that happened

 

[Angliru]

In a grand tour or even a week long stage race Evans saw what his multiple attacks will do for him-nothing. An excellent example is last year's Dauphine, where according to his primary opponents he attempted up to 20 attacks in one stage, all unsuccessful and all from the front of the peloton. This shows either a lack of tactical sense or just simply underestimating one's opponents. It seems one of the first things one learns in racing is that the element of surprise is very important in mounting an attack. Attacking off the front is comparable to thinking that you can simply ride your opponents off your wheel which could be construed as an insult to some and simply laughable to others. Of course these were in moments of desparation having pretty much lost the race after getting dropped on Ventoux by Valverde, after having found himself unable to respond to Valverde's pivotal race winning attack.

Any attack by Evans will only be playing into the hands of superior climbers like Contador, Andy Schleck and Sastre. He's best to continue in his original diesel engine type of climbing where he's not wasting precious energy on efforts that have no hope of bearing fruit. If he can somehow regain his 2008 TT level and limit his losses in mountains he may be fortunate to get in the top five. The podium is out of his and his team's reach with such competition as Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kreuziger, Basso, Gesink, Nibali, Vande Velde, Menchov, Frank Schleck and Wiggins all battling for places in the gc. I can't help but recall the Ventoux stage where in the elite group were 2 riders each from Astana (Contador/Armstrong) Saxo Bank (Schleck Bros.) and Liquigas (Nibali and Kreuziger) with Pellizotti up the road after launching his attack.
Nibali and Kreuziger we can fully expect to continue in their trajectory up the gc standings with both being elite climbers and good versus the clock. The fact that they were still strong on the penultimate stage, Ventoux no less, is testament to their formidable talent.

I anticipate Armstrong being stronger than 2009 in the TT's and holding his own in the mountains versus the 2nd tier of contenders: Evans, Kreuziger, Gesink, Sastre, Menchov, Nibali and Basso. Armstrong could quite possibly get the 2nd step on the podium, relegating Andy to 3rd but this will be his last appearance among the elite IMO. 2011 will see the beginning of his demise and once it becomes evident that he no longer has what it takes, Johann will not be able to convince him otherwise.He will quit mid tour leaving the team to fend for themselves while he shuns all media even twitter, ducking into a private vehicle and being sped away to avoid the media blitz.

 

[auscyclefan94]

In a grand tour or even a week long stage race Evans saw what his multiple attacks will do for him-nothing. An excellent example is last year's Dauphine, where according to his primary opponents he attempted up to 20 attacks in one stage, all unsuccessful and all from the front of the peloton. This shows either a lack of tactical sense just simply underestimating one's opponents. It seems one of the first things one learns in bicycling racing that the element of surprise is very important in mounting an attack. Attacking off the front is comparable to thinking that you can simply ride your opponents off your wheel which could be construed as an insult to some and simply laughable to others. Of course these were in moments of desparation having pretty much lost the race after getting dropped on Ventoux by Valverde, after having found himself unable to respond to Valverde's pivotal race winning attack.

Any attack by Evans will only be playing into the hands of superior climbers like Contador, Andy Schleck and Sastre. He's best to continue in his original diesel engine type of climbing where he's wasting precious energy on efforts that have no hope of bearing fruit. If he can somehow regain his 2008 TT level and limit his losses in mountains he may be fortunate to get in the top five. The podium is out of his and his team's reach with such competition as Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kreuziger, Basso, Gesink, Nibali, Vande Velde, Menchov, Frank Schleck and Wiggins all battling for places in the gc. I can't help but recall the Ventoux stage where in the elite group were 2 riders each from Astana (Contador/Armstrong) Saxo Bank (Schleck Bros.) and Liquigas (Nibali and Kreuziger) with Pellizotti up the road after launching his attack.
Nibali and Kreuziger we can fully expect to continue in their trajectory up the gc standings with both being elite climbers and good versus the clock. The fact that they were still strong penultimate stage, Ventoux no less, is testament to their formidable talent.

I anticipate Armstrong being stronger than 2009 in the TT's and holding his own in the mountains versus the 2nd tier of contenders: Evans, Kreuziger, Gesink, Sastre, Menchov, Nibali and Basso. Armstrong could quite possibly get the 2nd step on the podium, relegating Andy to 3rd but this will be his last appearance among the elite IMO. 2011 will see the beginning of his demise and once it becomes evident that he no longer has what it takes, Johann will not be able to convince him otherwise.He will quit mid tour leaving the team to fend for themselves while he shuns all media even twitter, ducking into a private vehicle and being sped away to avoid the media blitz.

Sorry Angliru, I am going to have to disagree with you on all points their and to save some time for myself you may want to read some of my other comments about the incidents you have talked about. Firstly, Evans was not dropped by valverde but he failed to respond or act. I know we had a big arguement about the Dauphine incident with Valverde, Evans and Contador and I agree that he needed to make less attacks but more vicious attacks from behind. The rest of your post is opinionated and to be honest I don't agree with any of it...

 

[Angliru]

Sorry Angliru, I am going to have to disagree with you on all points their and to save some time for myself you may want to read some of my other comments about the incidents you have talked about. Firstly, Evans was not dropped by valverde but he failed to respond or act. I know we had a big arguement about the Dauphine incident with Valverde, Evans and Contador and I agree that he needed to make less attacks but more vicious attacks from behind. The rest of your post is opinionated and to be honest I don't agree with any of it...

You seldom do which is your right. I'm uncertain the difference between failing to respond or act and getting dropped when it is one's intent to win said race. One of your chief competitors attacks on the queen stage of a weeklong stage race and you "fail to respond or act" and consequently lose valuable time in the process. That is getting dropped in my book no matter how you spin it. You can even go back to Evan's interviews after the stage and even he admits that he couldn't respond to Valverde's attack on Ventoux. Do you think it was some brilliant strategy of Evans to lull Valverde into complacency by allowing him to gain time on that stage?

 

[Ferminal]

Even if he did make a "surprise" attack it's likely he gets chased down quickly by climbers who aren't on their absolute limit. He's never going to attack on his own and get a minute up the mountain. He always seems to have 10mins less in the tank than others going uphill.

The only teammate which helps Evans is a GC threat like Frank, Kloden etc who can unleash attacks.

Re: Ventoux. He got dropped fair and square, the main point is that he didn't limit his losses and it was very much identical to Alpe D'Huez. All things equal Evans never loses that much time to Valverde up a climb so again it was either a poor tactical decision, or he didn't know whether he really wanted the Dauphine.

 

[Cerberus]

it's funny how you say attacking won't help him as many have criticised him in the past for that.

Perhaps he should have attacked more in the past and perhaps he can even benefit from attacking more in the future, but attacking is no magic bullet. Attacking does not guarantee the strength to attack successfully. I just don't think he has the acceleration to drop Contador or Schleck. Certainly he should try if he thinks that either is having a bad day, but there's no guarentie that they will. They didn't have any this year.

If Evans is within 1min 30 of Schleck he can take him in the time trial. It is more flat than the one in 2007 to Angouleme and if the wind is a head thna he could take Schleck.

That sounds realistic, depending of cause on how strong Evans and Schleck are on TTs in 2010. The problem however is whether Evans will be within 1min 30 of Schleck on the last TT. I'm guessing no.

1. Evans (leader)
2. Hincapie (domestique for flats and climbs) good tt'er
3. Ballan (domestique for flats and hilly stages)
4. Kroon (domestique for flats and hilly stages)
5. Santambrogio (domestique for climbs) good tt'er
6. Frank (domestique for climbs) good tt'er
7.Morabito (domestique for flats) OR Burghardt
8. Moos (domestique for climbs)
9. Frei (domestique for climbs) good tt'er

I must admit I don't know all of those riders, but how many of them do you think will be able to hang on and support Evans when the favorites are attacking? I don't think any of them will.

 

[tjwracer]

I still believe that even though Cadel may not be able to follow the attacks by more aggresive riders such as valverde AC or the schleck boys he is going to be top 3 at the tour. Andy i think is the #1 guy to watch because Lance and AC are going to be raceing eachother and might forget about Andy, Cadel, Wiggins, and Basso. that leaves the door wide open for cadel then to limit his losses in the mountains to the only person i believe can beat him (Schleck) and attempt to out TT him in the end. Cadel is very steady and doesnt mess up to often we saw that in the vuelta. We all know that the only reason we lost that was the flat.


He will attack because first the rainbow jersey that he will be wearing proves that he can attack. So anyone who doubts his skills and power should rewatch the Worlds then come back. and he will also be much better supported in the mountains. Face it the last time he had real support was Horner and i believe there are strong climbers then him that will be at Cadels side in the ountains giving him more confidence to make moves.


But the bottom line is Schleck and AC will have to make a mistake for cadel to win but he can podium with out to much problems if his luck doesnt turn bad again.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Andy i think is the #1 guy to watch because Lance and AC are going to be raceing eachother and might forget about Andy, Cadel, Wiggins, and Basso.

Lance is gonna race Contador, not convinced the reverse is true. Contador will be racing Andy, and will try to figure out very early on if there is anyone else he needs to worry about. I am not convinced if Lance features stronlgy this worry list. But the multitude of potential scenarios, if he just lets others take the race to him, makes me think he will try to get clarification very early on who is worth bothering about, and reduce the list of possible tour scenarios dramatically. And probably calm some other "if-if-if" GC hopefuls down a bit too, who, if Contador is looking mighty again, are likely to decide very early on, not to waste too much energy on chasing a lost cause, and conserve energy and target a stage win instead.

I think the real hope some have is that Contador will want to make his mark repeatedly, and overdo it. I think the real fear they have is that they all know, with the possible exception of Andy Schleck, that it is possibly more likely he'll actually pull that off with ease, and no-one will be able to ride along on all these fun-rides.

And I think it isn't just Contador who will want this clarity, and force an early pre-selection. I expect him and Andy (and thus Frank) to be very good friends early on, for the same reason.

Much as Gesink enjoyed doing well in GC during the Vuelta, he frequently stated he would have loved a stage win. He's still in that phase of his career. And stage wins are not to be sniffed at. In which case he (and other newbies) would be a more natural ally for Contador too, helping Contador and Andy with a break might be far more lucrative. Teaming up with Evans, Lance, etc to ride away from Contador and get a sizeable gap, and be granted a win, is a far less likely scenario.

If I was Gesink, I'd welcome being up ahead with Contador. I would not feel the same way if I was ahead with Evans.

I suspect we're gonna see a 2 camp split this year, early on, going up the hills, amongst the true GC teams. Sky/Shack/BMC vs Astana/Saxo. The others will ride more opportunistic, and since I assume Astana/Saxo to be the stronger camp, they will fall in line with them, for opportunistic ambitions. With stage hunters as the wild cards.

I'd be amazed if Contador ends up as alone as people sometimes depict here.

 

[tjwracer]

I dont think AC will be alone either or not for too long the Astana team isnt as weak as everyone says. Cadel's team along with the Shack and Saxo are stronger though. Lance still could be a contender though he showed that last year but he wont be on the podium though i strongly believe that the third step will be between Basso, F. Schleck, Cadel, and Christian Vandevelde maybe even Nibali

 

[Publicus]

I dont think AC will be alone either or not for too long the Astana team isnt as weak as everyone says. Cadel's team along with the Shack and Saxo are stronger though. Lance still could be a contender though he showed that last year but he wont be on the podium though i strongly believe that the third step will be between Basso, F. Schleck, Cadel, and Christian Vandevelde maybe even Nibali

BMC, viewed purely for its ability to deliver a GC candidate to victory in a major stage race, is NOT stronger than Astana. Radio Shack, on paper, is stronger, but I don't see them being strong enough to offset the relative weakness of their primary GC candidate (compared to the other GC candidates). Saxo Bank has a strong team, with a strong GC candidate. Same with Liquigas.

Lotto was a stronger GC team than BMC, but BMC may be more motivated to get Cadel a victory (until he ****es someone off or squanders their work).

 

[Francois the Postman]

Lotto was a stronger GC team than BMC, but BMC may be more motivated to get Cadel a victory (until he ****es someone off or squanders their work).

I also think BMC has a much simpler season target and priorities list than Lotto ever had, and this should ultimately help Evans. Or strike another excuse from a list.

 

[Publicus]

Lance is gonna race Contador, not convinced the reverse is true. Contador will be racing Andy, and will try to figure out very early on if there is anyone else he needs to worry about. I am not convinced if Lance features stronlgy this worry list. But the multitude of potential scenarios, if he just lets others take the race to him, makes me think he will try to get clarification very early on who is worth bothering about, and reduce the list of possible tour scenarios dramatically. And probably calm some other "if-if-if" GC hopefuls down a bit too, who, if Contador is looking mighty again, are likely to decide very early on, not to waste too much energy on chasing a lost cause, and conserve energy and target a stage win instead.

I think the real hope some have is that Contador will want to make his mark repeatedly, and overdo it. I think the real fear they have is that they all know, with the possible exception of Andy Schleck, that it is possibly more likely he'll actually pull that off with ease, and no-one will be able to ride along on all these fun-rides.

And I think it isn't just Contador who will want this clarity, and force an early pre-selection. I expect him and Andy (and thus Frank) to be very good friends early on, for the same reason.

Much as Gesink enjoyed doing well in GC during the Vuelta, he frequently stated he would have loved a stage win. He's still in that phase of his career. And stage wins are not to be sniffed at. In which case he (and other newbies) would be a more natural ally for Contador too, helping Contador and Andy with a break might be far more lucrative. Teaming up with Evans, Lance, etc to ride away from Contador and get a sizeable gap, and be granted a win, is a far less likely scenario.

If I was Gesink, I'd welcome being up ahead with Contador. I would not feel the same way if I was ahead with Evans.

I suspect we're gonna see a 2 camp split this year, early on, going up the hills, amongst the true GC teams. Sky/Shack/BMC vs Astana/Saxo. The others will ride more opportunistic, and since I assume Astana/Saxo to be the stronger camp, they will fall in line with them, for opportunistic ambitions. With stage hunters as the wild cards.

I'd be amazed if Contador ends up as alone as people sometimes depict here.

I agree. It seems that most assume that every team will be gunning to beat Contador and not to, you know, win the race. Winning the race is the strategic goal, how they go about doing that is the tactical aspect of the race. Tactically, I don't think it makes sense to focus SOLELY or predominantly on Contador. There are far too many live dogs potentially in this race (Armstrong, Basso, Contador, Evans, Gesink, Nibali, Menchov, Sastre, Valverde, Vandeveld, Wiggins) to focus one's energy solely on Contador. Better to ride your race than try to decipher a tactical response to another rider's unknown tactics.

 

[flicker]

Sorry crybaby cadel finishes behind basso and menchov. The quickest of those 2 is 5th place.

 

[tjwracer]

Maybe behind Basso but he will beat Menchov. Basso and Cadel will be a good matchup they will be close in the mountain but cadel will out TT him. Menchov just isnt consistent enough to beat Cadel.

 

[Ripper]

Maybe behind Basso but he will beat Menchov. Basso and Cadel will be a good matchup they will be close in the mountain but cadel will out TT him. Menchov just isnt consistent enough to beat Cadel.

Umm, even Evans can jump quicker than Basso. Or at least that's what I recall from the Vuelta this past year

 

[tjwracer]

I was trying to be rational but i saw that too Evans is one of the most underrated riders in the peloton because of his luck i believe if all goes right he will be on the podium

 

[Ripper]

I was trying to be rational but i saw that too Evans is one of the most underrated riders in the peloton because of his luck i believe if all goes right he will be on the podium

And who knows ... Basso might be stronger this year compared to '09. Should be an interesting Giro.

Actually ... f**k it, it's going to be an interesting year!

 

[Galic Ho]

On paper perhaps - which is what I said. Only Horner comes to mind when remembering anyone ever "supporting" Cadel - mountains or not. To list Popovych in any thread concerning Cadel and team support is laughable. As for adding a (not at the Tour) caveat - well, that's what we're discussing so again, not following your point.

You then wrote a whole bunch of stuff I can't be bothered responding to beyond this: I pity the fool who judges people they've never met.

As my first law lecturer said. "Never stop questioning." Judging on my behalf would involve some very colourful language. I can see how you mistook judging for questioning. Listen to LA and Bruyneel. They love people who don't question, because they can spin whatever they want and the fans buy every drop like a lost soul in the desert following a mirage for water. When judgement does come, well it is a sports forum talking about sports performance. I am sure many of the dopers are alright and fine people in life. I can say that I'd get along well with most of them. It's not like I don't associate with addicts (come in all shapes and forms, dopers are one form) and people who aren't perfect in my every day life. Asking people to withhold an opinion on a sports forum! I won't comment any further.

I never said Popo helped Cadel. If you read threads in the clinic, you'd have come across talk (questioning, trying to understand) about why Popo, was such a flop in 2008 for Lotto. One part was to do with people caught doping (his best mate) and the other was to do with Cadel looking after Cadel and failing to see months before, that he could have greatly increased his team stock if he raced for Popo. Look up the event.

Fool. Not here. I regularly pick winners of multiple sports months (even years) before a crowning event. Questioning and using ones brain allows me to do this. Hence I am rarely shocked. Judging and questioning does not make one a fool. Not using your brain makes you a fool. As for not following the thread caveat, I stated who I thought would win an event, that Evans team is racing. Not everyone is so linear they cannot multitask and expand their dialogue.

 

[karlboss]

BMC will not be effective at any time that matters. Cadel will be on his own every decisive climb. Nothing new, horner was almost good enough, but not quite.