Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[karlboss]

Get his new buddy Lance to declare every mountain stage dangerous for a rider go slow day?

 

[Galic Ho]

Then I pick Nigella Lawson, she'd outcook anyone you've listed. I hope my non-linear multitasking expansion of this OT dialog is not beyond you.

Well that is a given. She is a pro. A very well known pro cook, who happens to draw almost as much media attention for her curves as her culinary skills. Maybe she should be moved to the babes on bikes thread with a picture of a bike? That way everyone can be happy, at least for a minute or two!

My point was apart from Cadel, I picked the Tour and Vuelta podiums, to the position. I'll go one better this year and aim for the Giro as well. I have my first two, just need to find number three. Cadel is up for that spot with Menchov. Of course this may change as the season progresses.

 

[Galic Ho]

didn't take too long for me to realise I've missed names, and may have been overly optimistic with others...was always going to happen.

Tactics? Sit on Lance's wheel as Cadel can match all Lance's accelerations, and if Lance is in trouble when Contador goes, Kloden will pull for you. Then take time in the TT. This is the tactic for 2nd or 3rd. The Cadel we know and love, but the only thing really suitable to his characteristics.
Any guesses on how he takes 1st?

Radio ban. He drops them on a climb? No, they'll mark him. We have to wait and see how the Giro unfolds. If he is up there in the final week, he'll push on. If not I suspect he can turn it down a notch and wait for the Tour. I'm guessing, he'll go for the Giro and miss the Dauphine completely so he can back up and do the Tour. If he slows in the Giro, then he may well do the Dauphine. Maybe Switzerland would be better for a June outing?

A few aussie fans sort Contador and Schleck out on one of the climbs.

I'll be on the first plane to France and will crack some heads open if that occurs. Honestly, the ardent Cadel fans don't have the cajones to out themselves in such a fashion, mainly because they know what their fellow countrymen can and will do to them if they misbehave. No worries though, Contador and Schleck are quick enough to put on the pace and drop any tools who get too close.

 

[maltiv]

Evans is a bit like Thor Hushovd - one of the best at almost winning/finishing second.

Personally I believe he will be strong at the Giro, probably finish in the top 3 (if he attempts to do so), and then 5th-10th at the TDF. The giro-tour double is basically not possible anymore really.

 

[BroDeal]

The giro-tour double is basically not possible anymore really.

I don't believe it. I think Contador could do it. He will likely to the Tour-Vuelta double next year. The only problem is that the Tour has become so important that no serious Tour contender wants to risk the decrease in Tour form from really having a go at the Giro.

 

[maltiv]

I don't believe it. I think Contador could do it. He will likely to the Tour-Vuelta double next year. The only problem is that the Tour has become so important that no serious Tour contender wants to risk the decrease in Tour form from really having a go at the Giro.

True that, Contador could definitely do it but I don't think he will ever risk it. I don't think anyone else are capable of doing it.

The tour-vuelta double is far more likely as it's not even nearly as risky.

 

[Cerberus]

didn't take too long for me to realise I've missed names, and may have been overly optimistic with others...

Luis Leon Sanchez and Soler are the obvious examples of optimism I'd say. Perhaps I'm missing something but everyone else on the list has a proven ability to ride with, if not the best then at least the second best in a Grand Tour. Those two haven't.

 

[Angliru]

Luis Leon Sanchez and Soler are the obvious examples of optimism I'd say. Perhaps I'm missing something but everyone else on the list has a proven ability to ride with, if not the best then at least the second best in a Grand Tour. Those two haven't.

Soler has shown that he can, provided he stays on his bike. His performance at the 2007 Tour is testament to what he's capable of. I think he'll be back to that level, bar any injuries/setbacks, for 2010.

 

[tjwracer]

Evans is a bit like Thor Hushovd - one of the best at almost winning/finishing second.

Personally I believe he will be strong at the Giro, probably finish in the top 3 (if he attempts to do so), and then 5th-10th at the TDF. The giro-tour double is basically not possible anymore really.

But Thor won the green jersey so constistancy counts for something

 

[Cerberus]

Soler has shown that he can, provided he stays on his bike. His performance at the 2007 Tour is testament to what he's capable of. I think he'll be back to that level, bar any injuries/setbacks, for 2010.

Has he? I don't remember him from 2007 so I can't be sure, but I took a look at the Wikipedia page for the 2007 Tour Stages and it looks to me like he placed well in mountain stages when he got a headstart in a breakaway. Doesn't place him in the same category as proven Grand Tour Contenders but more in the category with the strong Domestiques such as Fuglsang or Lövkvist.

 

[Angliru]

Has he? I don't remember him from 2007 so I can't be sure, but I took a look at the Wikipedia page for the 2007 Tour Stages and it looks to me like he placed well in mountain stages when he got a headstart in a breakaway. Doesn't place him in the same category as proven Grand Tour Contenders but more in the category with the strong Domestiques such as Fuglsang or Lövkvist.

Normally most riders that get in long breakaways in the mountains, once their caught prior to the finish by the gc contenders, they are routinely dropped. Soler was either staying with the contenders or even attacking them after getting caught. He was one of the few recent KOM champions that was actually able to climb with some of the top contenders. Soler's ability versus the clock is his primary weakness. His biggest weakness in 2007 was his inexperience, 2007 was his first Tour, which could have also been his an advantage in that initially it gave him the latitude to go on his attacks/breaks without the contenders seeing him as a threat. By the last week, most were aware of his climing talents.

Plus I thought one of the current debates in this thread was who would be in the final 15 riders on the final climb of any particular mountainous stage. I'd have to include Soler in that group.

 

[Galic Ho]

Normally most riders that get in long breakaways in the mountains, once their caught prior to the finish by the gc contenders, they are routinely dropped. Soler was either staying with the contenders or even attacking them after getting caught. He was one of the few recent KOM champions that was actually able to climb with some of the top contenders. Soler's ability versus the clock is his primary weakness. His biggest weakness in 2007 was his inexperience, 2007 was his first Tour, which could have also been his an advantage in that initially it gave him the latitude to go on his attacks/breaks without the contenders seeing him as a threat. By the last week, most were aware of his climing talents.

Plus I thought one of the current debates in this thread was who would be in the final 15 riders on the final climb of any particular mountainous stage. I'd have to include Soler in that group.

Soler was the find of the 2007 Tour. He's a gold mine. He's better than John Lee Augustyn, another ex-Barloworld climber. Soler won his stage in a breakaway and then later on was in the select group in the Pyrenees. He was up there near Sastre, Evans and Leipheimer. He couldn't match Rasmussen and Contador, but he had sufficient stamina to make moves early on, get caught and still finish respectfully. He also won the KOM by a landslide. Over 100 points (but Rasmussen was booted and was close). Soler Hernandez if he finds the form of 2007, will be a great asset for Valverde.

Honestly I think people are underestimating Valverde and Sanchez. They have strong climbing domestiques, solid chrono's, can sprint, can climb, can sprint and climb at the same time. Both have few weaknesses and based on rankings are the second and third best riders in the world after Contador. Yes I know the rankings are subjective, but the top 5 are spot on (they're in the right order). The only thing standing between an all Spanish podium at the Tour is the Schleck brothers and Saxobank.

 

[Cerberus]

Normally most riders that get in long breakaways in the mountains, once their caught prior to the finish by the gc contenders, they are routinely dropped. Soler was either staying with the contenders or even attacking them after getting caught. He was one of the few recent KOM champions that was actually able to climb with some of the top contenders. Soler's ability versus the clock is his primary weakness. His biggest weakness in 2007 was his inexperience, 2007 was his first Tour, which could have also been his an advantage in that initially it gave him the latitude to go on his attacks/breaks without the contenders seeing him as a threat. By the last week, most were aware of his climing talents.

Plus I thought one of the current debates in this thread was who would be in the final 15 riders on the final climb of any particular mountainous stage. I'd have to include Soler in that group.

As I said I don't actually remember him from the Tour, so I could be wrong. Still given the field making the last 15 riders will require edging out some impressive names. I guess we'll see come July.

Honestly I think people are underestimating Valverde and Sanchez. They have strong climbing domestiques, solid chrono's, can sprint, can climb, can sprint and climb at the same time. Both have few weaknesses and based on rankings are the second and third best riders in the world after Contador. Yes I know the rankings are subjective, but the top 5 are spot on (they're in the right order). The only thing standing between an all Spanish podium at the Tour is the Schleck brothers and Saxobank.

They might be the second and third best Riders, but they're not the second and third best Grand Tour riders. While either of them could podium with luck it's far from a sure thing, even if all of team Saxo Bank comes down with pneumonia the day before the tour.

 

[Galic Ho]

As I said I don't actually remember him from the Tour, so I could be wrong. Still given the field making the last 15 riders will require edging out some impressive names. I guess we'll see come July.


They might be the second and third best Riders, but they're not the second and third best Grand Tour riders. While either of them could podium with luck it's far from a sure thing, even if all of team Saxo Bank comes down with pneumonia the day before the tour.

Actually they are the second and third best grand tour riders, everyone just hasn't caught on yet.

 

[Angliru]

As I said I don't actually remember him from the Tour, so I could be wrong. Still given the field making the last 15 riders will require edging out some impressive names. I guess we'll see come July.

Cerberus you must remember when Soler, in the midst of a brief respite between the multitude of attacks that were going on amongst the elite climbers, offered his water bottle to the yellow jersey wearing Rassmussen, who of course turned it down.

 

[Galic Ho]

Cerberus you must remember when Soler, in the midst of a brief respite between the multitude of attacks that were going on amongst the elite climbers, offered his water bottle to the yellow jersey wearing Rassmussen, who of coursed turned it down.

I was going to mention that, but thought everyone remembered it. Classy, polite and great sportsmanship. I'll refrain from talk of other 'bottle' issues from 2009.

Cerberus, Samu was my pick for third at the Tour for 2009. Changed it when he didn't ride. I'm quietly confident in the Spanish this year. F1 world champion, winning all 3 grand tours (haven't decided who is winning the Vuelta yet because I don't know who is racing) and the World Cup. Spain will in all eventuality, win the lot. They won't win in Tennis, but that is only fair.

 

[Cerberus]

Actually they are the second and third best grand tour riders, everyone just hasn't caught on yet.

Come on, Andy Schleck is clearly the second best GHT rider in the world. He arguably has better GT results at 24 than Sanchez and Valverde has at 31 and 29 (Depending on how you think Valverdes Vuelta win and a third place stacks up against Andys second place in the Tour and Giro). Evans was significantly better than both in 2008. Menchov has better results as well as has Sastre. They're among the 10 best GT riders, and they could podium, but I think either should be happy if they reach the third spot. I guess we'll see though.

Cerberus you must remember when Soler, in the midst of a brief respite between the multitude of attacks that were going on amongst the elite climbers, offered his water bottle to the yellow jersey wearing Rassmussen, who of course turned it down.

I'm embarrassed to say I don't, it's possible I didn't watch the stage where it happened.

 

[Martin318is]

The thing about Soler was that he was capable of having a bike crash whilst sitting on the couch watching TV. Didn't he have something like 5 crashes in the first week alone?

 

[tjwracer]

Actually they are the second and third best grand tour riders, everyone just hasn't caught on yet.

Doing well at the Vuelta and doing well at the TDF are to complete different thing everyone targets the tour the competitors are tougher and all the best teams are asembled so you cant say that they are second and third best because of one race because if that is the case Cadel is in the twenties and lance is third best and we all know that that is not true. But i would say that they are top ten but they compete with Schleck's Kloden Sastre Nibali Menchov Levi Christian Vandevelde Wiggins AC etc.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Radio ban. He drops them on a climb? No, they'll mark him. We have to wait and see how the Giro unfolds. If he is up there in the final week, he'll push on. If not I suspect he can turn it down a notch and wait for the Tour. I'm guessing, he'll go for the Giro and miss the Dauphine completely so he can back up and do the Tour. If he slows in the Giro, then he may well do the Dauphine. Maybe Switzerland would be better for a June outing?



I'll be on the first plane to France and will crack some heads open if that occurs. Honestly, the ardent Cadel fans don't have the cajones to out themselves in such a fashion, mainly because they know what their fellow countrymen can and will do to them if they misbehave. No worries though, Contador and Schleck are quick enough to put on the pace and drop any tools who get too close.

For the giro, all the main/hard mountain stages are in the final 7 days with 1 or 2 mountain stages in the first 13 days which aren't as hard as the ones in the final week.

For Contador to win the tour, he doesn't have to attack. Andy and Saxo will try to split away from Contador by continaully attacking and Contador just has to follow him. Once it gets to the time trial Alberto will beat Andy and that will be the end of it all.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I was going to mention that, but thought everyone remembered it. Classy, polite and great sportsmanship. I'll refrain from talk of other 'bottle' issues from 2009.

Cerberus, Samu was my pick for third at the Tour for 2009. Changed it when he didn't ride. I'm quietly confident in the Spanish this year. F1 world champion, winning all 3 grand tours (haven't decided who is winning the Vuelta yet because I don't know who is racing) and the World Cup. Spain will in all eventuality, win the lot. They won't win in Tennis, but that is only fair.

Because you picked the vuelta and tour podiums, can you please pick evans n.o 1 at the tour with Lance not on the podium!!!

 

[karlboss]

Luis Leon Sanchez and Soler are the obvious examples of optimism I'd say. Perhaps I'm missing something but everyone else on the list has a proven ability to ride with, if not the best then at least the second best in a Grand Tour. Those two haven't.

Soler, as stated by others, has and only needs to find that form again. LLS, I'm just tipping a break out year.

auscyclefan, i know you want cadel to win, so what is his tactic to win, not come 2nd? I'll take an answer from anyone. Which stage does he attack, how far from the end, who are his allies?

 

[tjwracer]

For cadel to attack i dont think it will have to be on a ceratin stage. What he needs to do is follw attacks and try not to use up too much energy. he can maybe us one of Andy or Franks attacks to launch his own. Now that will probably be a long shot but that is one waay to win it he is going to have to use someones attack to mount his own Cadel has a big motor and is a terrific decender which could give him an advantage on a stage with a downhill finish if that is the case he will have to do it toward the top of the final climb.

 

[karlboss]

For cadel to attack i dont think it will have to be on a ceratin stage. What he needs to do is follw attacks and try not to use up too much energy. he can maybe us one of Andy or Franks attacks to launch his own. Now that will probably be a long shot but that is one waay to win it he is going to have to use someones attack to mount his own Cadel has a big motor and is a terrific decender which could give him an advantage on a stage with a downhill finish if that is the case he will have to do it toward the top of the final climb.

A terrific decender? there are a number of broken collar bones that disagree with you.
Follow attacks? He can't, that's the problem.

 

[auscyclefan94]

auscyclefan, i know you want cadel to win, so what is his tactic to win, not come 2nd? I'll take an answer from anyone. Which stage does he attack, how far from the end, who are his allies?

- His allies out of the gc guys are everyone not on the 3 big teams; Astana, Saxo and Radioshack. He could even use some of the fighting between these teams to his advantage.

- I personally think he may have to attack on top of stages where their is a descent to them, like the stage to St jean de maurienne for this year. Attack 5km from the top of the madeleine and then descend like a madman.. I think on the mountain top finishes he should have a hang on tatic. Cobbled stages will be very important and will most likely end the chances of a gc favourite.

-With the giro i think evans can climb with any of those guys including sastre and pellizotti. I think garzelli might be an outside bet for the giro this year as last year he had one bad day but for the rest of the giro he was climbing superbly.