Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[richwagmn]

Cadel might take time on Contador on the last time trial, but not much time. I don't see Cadel staying within 1-2 minutes of Contador on the climbs. Perhaps he can limit his loses to Schleck, though I doubt that as well, but not Contador. Losing Contador on the cobles (or bad form or injury) is the only real chance anyone except possibly Schleck has of beating Contador next year.

I agree. Cadel isn't in the same league as AC and AS when it comes to climbing. He has no explosiveness at all. I'm sure he's not even on AC's radar.

For him to win/contend in the mountains, he'd need a super strong team like the old discovery squad that could shell riders on the climbs. BMC isn't that strong. I don't think RS is even strong enough to dislodge AC.

Cadel's chance to win the TDF has come and gone.

 

[phillop]

That is a clear description of the competition for the Maglia Rosa. Cadel only has to handle Menchov, Pellizotti and Sastre. He can do that. Mind you, it will be close. Hopefully Liquigas have inner team squabbles and blow their chances. They can field a very strong outfit that will be hard to beat.

Cadel cant climb with sastre, wouldnt think he could climb with pellozoti either. there is only 23km of itt, cadel will loose time in the ttt. dont think cadel will get any real benefit out of the plan de crones itt, and didnt pellozoti win that stage last time?
I just hope Rujano is on form, he could make the race fukin interesting. And put cadel into all sorts of difficulty? the other rider i think is an interesting prospect that could possibly smoke cadel is Soler. **** all time trials, we know he can climb good, strong team.
I dont think cadel will ever win a grand tour.

 

[BroDeal]

He doesn't have to drop contador... stay within descent reach of contador and then we have the final tt which will not suit contador.

Wake up, bro. It's not 2007. Contador is the best time trialist among all the GT contenders. Period. Evans is not going to grab jack from Contador on any time trial course.

 

[Galic Ho]

I would not know, looking at the rosters, which team is better - but regardless, that judgement for now can only be made on paper - the BMC team are untested in GT racing.

On an individual rider basis, I do not remember many Lotto riders being anywhere near Cadel and if there was one, Hincapie would match that, and Ballan (imo) should match any Lotto climber that ever "supported" Cadel in previous Tours. My memory for riders and the help they provided is poor though, so I could be missing large swathes of support Cadel received in previous Tours.

Horner, Popovych and Gilbert (not at the Tour) are all better climbers than Ballan.

What I found with Lotto was the way the team management undermined Cadel and his efforts, primarily through their interactions with the press. Too often they put him down or did not seem to work with him (eg: 2009 Giro participation announcements, etc).

You're kind of new here so I'll rephrase what has been spoken about on other threads. Cadel is not lacking in people who believe he is quality. He is lacking in intellect. He kept going about the same task the same way he has previously (it didn't work then) and I ask you what is the definition of stupidity? Is it not one who goes about trying to achieve something with the same methods that have previously failed? Cadel isn't a people person. OPL are not the devil incarnate and evil anti-Australian team people have painted them as. Cadel grates on people. Like sand paper, he chaffs, badly. He does not have the interpersonal skills to fix things on a person to person basis.

Most of us here have said he could have won the Giro last year. OPL certainly thought so otherwise they would not have suggest he ride the Giro. Cadel didn't like their statements and chucked a tantrum. Maybe people will look at it differently. Yes Coucke is a tool, but Seargeant and the managers at OPL would not have asked Cadel to ride a race if they didn't believe in him. Has it not occured to the majority here that maybe they suggested the Giro because they knew winning the Tour in 2009 was beyond their team and Cadel. Why waste their time. The Giro is just as fine an achievement to the purists. So who is the git and who were the realists? Once Evans gets the Tour win fantasy out of his head and sits down and is a realist (team BMC should be capable of aiding Evans reach this plateau), he should realise the Giro is his own personal utopia, ripe for the picking. The Tour equires far to many variables to arise. It won't happen barring a minor miracle. The static, or fixed variables are what determines most races. Cadel doesn't have the yards for the Tour win. The podium, but not the win (even then I'm sceptical).

 

[Galic Ho]

Cadel cant climb with sastre, wouldnt think he could climb with pellozoti either. there is only 23km of itt, cadel will loose time in the ttt. dont think cadel will get any real benefit out of the plan de crones itt, and didnt pellozoti win that stage last time?
I just hope Rujano is on form, he could make the race fukin interesting. And put cadel into all sorts of difficulty? the other rider i think is an interesting prospect that could possibly smoke cadel is Soler. **** all time trials, we know he can climb good, strong team.
I dont think cadel will ever win a grand tour.

I know. I was being nice to Auscycle. I think right now, Sastre or Pellizotti are going to win the Giro. So much, that if the early season goes well I'll put money on them. Whoever wins on the Zoncolan will probably take chunks out of everyone else. Cadel and Menchov need to hold on when Sastre and Pellizotti attack and not loose much time. Sastre could have won last year if he hadn't have had that bad day between his stage win (day 17). I don't think he'll make the same mistake again. Overall, Cadel and Dennis are almost as good as Carlos in the hills. Liquigas are the wild card.

Is Caisse d'Epargne sending Soler to the Giro? Ricco is coming back as well. More trouble right there.

 

[auscyclefan94]

They are for 7 or 17 kilometres (can't remember which). Cobbles will sort Sweet F%#K All, except who wins the days stage. Contador will not lose time in the Northern France stages. Cadel stay with Contador in the hills! Alberto improved last year. Schleck couldn't keep up with him. This year there are more hills. Cadel can only come third, second if someone has an injury. First if all the planets align and all of Australia prays and God answers.

I'll agree that to beat Contador will require one to think outside the box. I know how to do it. Getting there is nigh on impossible. Beat him to the top of a major climb and then drop him by 10 or 20 seconds in the descent. That is how to do it. Won't happen though unless Samu can pull it off, or Cancellara. As for the ITT, it is not 50km's. Remember Contador's jersey in Annecy. Spanish national ITT champion. He is as good as Cadel (when Cadel is on fire, which he hasn't been since 2007 in a GT chrono) or better. The ITT is 40 clics, Contador himself has stated that is the ideal distance for him. Cadel takes no time on Contador and if he does it is minimal, a few seconds. I'm not saying this to be a ***, but Cadel needs to be realistic. Go for the Giro, have a crack at the Tour (where a 3rd place is a strong possibility considering Valverde and Samu will be there to) if BMC get an invite, and then work for the team at nationals and get Sutton or Haussler a rainbow jersey. That would be a monumental year.

Aussiecyclefan94, were you surprised when Contador won the ITT in Annecy? I wasn't. I knew he'd be close to Cancellara. The majority of fans and experts were surprised. I wasn't. The writing had been on the wall since the prior 4 months. Alberto Contador is so good, he can beat you anywhere. Which is why I was saying before the Tour (not on this site) that Cadel needed to improve his climbing, because he could not rely on his ITT to make up time. It just isn't enough anymore. Maybe if the course was 60kms, but it isn't.

Most gc guys shouldn't even bother turning up to the tour this year according to some of you. if he didn't believe he could do it then he wouldn't turn up. 1 km of cobbles can be all that it takes. Look at 2004 with Iban Mayo... Even the beset cobble guys will crash e.g. stuart ogrady

Not surprised at all with Contador at annecy, that for me was a contador time trial course, different to Cognac or Paulliac time trials.

with the giro ttt, they will be doing a lot of practise i would imagine. with climbing with sastre well that is undecided, 2007 he outclimbed him and in 2008 he did but we had a cadel battered and bruised. rujano and ricco will be nothing to worry about.

i think cadel can beat conti but it will not be easy...

 

[auscyclefan94]

Horner, Popovych and Gilbert (not at the Tour) are all better climbers than Ballan.



You're kind of new here so I'll rephrase what has been spoken about on other threads. Cadel is not lacking in people who believe he is quality. He is lacking in intellect. He kept going about the same task the same way he has previously (it didn't work then) and I ask you what is the definition of stupidity? Is it not one who goes about trying to achieve something with the same methods that have previously failed? Cadel isn't a people person. OPL are not the devil incarnate and evil anti-Australian team people have painted them as. Cadel grates on people. Like sand paper, he chaffs, badly. He does not have the interpersonal skills to fix things on a person to person basis.

Most of us here have said he could have won the Giro last year. OPL certainly thought so otherwise they would not have suggest he ride the Giro.

He hasn't gone about it the same way, much different program this year. The program has worked for others and he has been very close twice doing that program.

They didn't suggest, they announced he would do it and he knew nothing about it.

 

[python]

I agree. Cadel isn't in the same league as AC and
Cadel's chance to win the TDF has come and gone.

yep. the tour is booked by contador till 2015. evans will be out of the sport by then.

agree with those who give him the giro. he should do a menchov, pretend he goes for both, but really concentrate on the giro. this way he can lull some contenders and finally get a gt victory worthy his immense talent. cadel needs to be a bit more lucky and cagey to win big.

peope a new era is upon us. the future belongs to young-er riders like schlecks, gesink, nibali, martin...old guard farts are on the way out and can only score a chance here and there.

 

[auscyclefan94]

yep. the tour is booked by contador till 2015. evans will be out of the sport by then.

agree with those who give him the giro. he should do a menchov, pretend he goes for both, but really concentrate on the giro. this way he can lull some contenders and finally get a gt victory worthy his immense talent. cadel needs to be a bit more lucky and cagey to win big.

peope a new era is upon us. the future belongs to young-er riders like schlecks, gesink, nibali, martin...old guard farts are on the way out and can only score a chance here and there.

I guess we will all see once come may and/or july. the strongest rider does not win the tour always, cadel knows that and contador may very well have to learn that.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I enjoyed it and maybe some others will find it interesting but here is an interview about his hopes and ambiotions for 2010 and the past tours...
http://player.sbs.com.au/cycling#/cycling_08/interviews/interviews/playlist/Cadel-Evans:-Close-to-Flying/

Just a diary entry off his site...
http://www.cadelevans.com.au/cadelsdiary.aspx

 

[WonderLance]

contador may very well have to learn that.

You could say that Contador has a lot to learn.

 

[craig1985]

I'm starting to think that Sastre might just win the Giro next year.

 

[Galic Ho]

Most gc guys shouldn't even bother turning up to the tour this year according to some of you. if he didn't believe he could do it then he wouldn't turn up. 1 km of cobbles can be all that it takes. Look at 2004 with Iban Mayo... Even the beset cobble guys will crash e.g. stuart ogrady

i think cadel can beat conti but it will not be easy...

Firstly. BMC don't have an invite yet to the Tour. Secondly, remember the variables. Contador and Schleck are static, meaning they are fixed. They won't vary. Cobbles is the variable and a massive one at that. If you or anyone else truly believe this is where time can be made to win the Tour, then I would suggest what you proposed. Don't bother turning up. Hoping for something on the cobbles is stretching ones faith in their own ability too far. All teams will protect their GC riders. A crash at the front of the field? Not likely, which is where the GC guys will be.

He hasn't gone about it the same way, much different program this year. The program has worked for others and he has been very close twice doing that program.

They didn't suggest, they announced he would do it and he knew nothing about it.

Again, that was Cadel's version. Sadly given his lacklustre Tour, it would appear with hindsight that Lotto management were right. But that is no longer important. Final point. Evans season hasn't begun yet. You cannot state it has or has not gone the same way as prior seasons without a single event contested and finished. Close twice? I give up. The course by Evans own mouth, suits Contador and Schleck. I dare say he knows he cannot win the Tour this year. Perhaps that is why he went to BMC, he got the new environment and a chance to win a GT other than the Tour because the new team is a Continental outfit who weren't guaranteed a Tour start.

 

[Galic Ho]

I'm starting to think that Sastre might just win the Giro next year.

Imagine Sastre winning and relegating Cadel to second again. Wishful thinking on my behalf, but it would be hilarious. Perennial bridesmaid. Wow, this year is looking good.

 

[craig1985]

Of course my brain has to get used to the fact that it is 2010, not 2009.

 

[Ferminal]

Contador is way out of reach for Evans, he takes minutes through the mountains and their time trialing abilities are close enough not to count (30s either way).

Evans can finish second if he aims to finish second. If he goes for the win and that's reflected in his tactics, he could finish anywhere between 3rd and 10th.

I think the Giro will be close though. Sastre may have the edge because of the fewer TT kms compared to the 2008 TdF. But ideally Evans is wiser for Alpe D'Huez in 2008 and Ventoux in June 2009. Evans Vuelta doesn't have a stand out error like these two, the flat tire isn't a tactical error I guess his TTing in the Vuelta wasn't outstanding enough to make the lack of TT in the Giro that big a loss.

Evans to come top3 and if he misses out on 1st, it will be a small margin. Do Sastre's 2009 performances cast any doubt on his ability to finish at the top? The tribe of Liquigas riders could be more likely to win.

 

[Moondance]

Do I think that Evans has a chance..... Absolutely. Looking at it on the basis of 09 results I'd probably slot him into the 4th rung of the Non-Contador Category.

I still think that noone will beat Contador on their own merits; Contador will have to fall/injure/have poor form/have a really bad day for anyone to beat him. Assuming this happens, I would still rank Schleck the Younger, Armstrong and Sastre (assuming he properly aims and preps for the Tour) over Cadel in terms of Tour winning ability. He'll be on par with the likes of Menchov, Schleck the Elder and Pellizotti, and ahead of dudes like Nibali, Kreuziger, Gesink, Basso or Wiggins.

Granted if BMC turn out to be a greater force in the mountains than i anticipate, or Cadel shows real progress under new management, I'll possibly raise him over Sastre or The Boss in my estimation, but beating both Contador and Baby Schleck..... Possible but highly unlikely.

 

[ak-zaaf]

and ahead of dudes like Nibali, Kreuziger, Gesink, Basso or Wiggins.

Except for Basso those guys will probably all be better next July. Gesink was already at least equal to Evans last Vuelta. I believe Nibali and Kreuziger will grow to be podium contenders, Nibali maybe next year already.

Maybe Evans can win the Giro, but I just don't see it happening. As soon as there is only 110-15 riders left on the last climb, he will be isolated most of the times.

 

[hfer07]

Is Caisse d'Epargne sending Soler to the Giro? Ricco is coming back as well. More trouble right there.

Soler is going to the Tour, According to "El Tiempo" (Colombian newspaper) and his role is what Joaquin Rodriguez was doing. I'd prefer him to go to the giro with less/free restrains than merely work for Valverde (if allowed to ride the TDF)

 

[cyclegeek]

I know as someone who just loves the sport of cycling without all the excess baggage, you all know what I mean. Cadel would be one of the great champions. A fighter thats paid his dues many times over. He has the class that a lot of cyclists don't and if he won any GT a true fan would welcome it and embrace it.

 

[cyclegeek]

Where are you from Moose Knuckles???

If you think he canc certainly win the giro and also win the tour are you suggesting the tour/giro double? Just the thought of that makes me wet myself and the thought of some of the posters on here (especially dim and timmy loves rabo) reactions if he did that...

I know as someone who just loves the sport of cycling without all the excess baggage, you all know what I mean. Cadel would be one of the great champions. A fighter thats paid his dues many times over. He has the class that a lot of cyclists don't and if he won any GT a true fan would welcome it and embrace it.

 

[therealtimshady]

evans

he may win the giro although pellizotti, sastre and basso will drop him in the mountains.

as for the tour BMC wont even be there, as vanconsoleil with the feillu brothers, cervelo and garmin should get the wildcard invites.

contador will win the tour, the question is by how much?

 

[stefrees]

I know as someone who just loves the sport of cycling without all the excess baggage, you all know what I mean. Cadel would be one of the great champions. A fighter thats paid his dues many times over. He has the class that a lot of cyclists don't and if he won any GT a true fan would welcome it and embrace it.

as a neutral cycling fan ( with allegiance to sky being british) i prefer watching the smooth riding styles of contador/schleck/sastre any day, for evans to win the tour it'll be a boring spectacle to neutrals. i understand how massive it would be for australia, same as it would be if britain ever get a tdf winner, but im not sure what class he has that puts him above all other cyclists apart from your national pride (which is a good thing btw)

 

[tjwracer]

Cadel can win the tour because first he has changed his riding style and is more agressive. He will have to attack at the tour to win it, and that will make the tour exciting to watch because he will go again and again because he is that motivated. the cobbled stages may do him well also, BMC is a much stronger team then he has had before so that will be interesting to see him he puts guys like Hincapie and Ballan on the front. He will also be much better suported in the mountains which we have never seen when he was with Silence.

 

[Cerberus]

Cadel can win the tour because first he has changed his riding style and is more agressive. He will have to attack at the tour to win it, and that will make the tour exciting to watch because he will go again and again because he is that motivated. the cobbled stages may do him well also, BMC is a much stronger team then he has had before so that will be interesting to see him he puts guys like Hincapie and Ballan on the front. He will also be much better suported in the mountains which we have never seen when he was with Silence.

Attacking won't help him because he can neither drop nor follow Contador on the climbs. As for his team it isn't stronger let alone "much stronger". It's doubtful that either Ballan or Hincapie will be there when the Saxo Bank train is done. I suppose it's possible Evans will get lucky on the Cobbles and drop AC, but that's more likely to hand the victory to Schleck than to Evans.