Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[Galic Ho]

I still believe that even though Cadel may not be able to follow the attacks by more aggresive riders such as valverde AC or the schleck boys he is going to be top 3 at the tour. Andy i think is the #1 guy to watch because Lance and AC are going to be raceing eachother and might forget about Andy, Cadel, Wiggins, and Basso. that leaves the door wide open for cadel then to limit his losses in the mountains to the only person i believe can beat him (Schleck) and attempt to out TT him in the end. Cadel is very steady and doesnt mess up to often we saw that in the vuelta. We all know that the only reason we lost that was the flat.

First bold. Fanboy fantasy right there. Alberto has stated who his threats are. Andy Schleck is his stated primary adversary and threat. Which of course means he will be solely racing Lance. Good to see you've been taking the Shack (Bruyneel and LA) PR so seriously. That first bold is living proof that spin works. Of course Alberto Contador's own opinion is meaningless and non revealing. Hmmmnnnn.

Second bold. There was no 'we'. Cadel was on his own. Who here loved it when Cadel had his typical whinge afterwards? It was funny. Even if he hadn't lost all the time you ignore that Samu had been dropped earlier and still beat Evans that day. Besides, Samu and Valverde would have attacked Evans later had they not gained time. They have his number in the climbs. I did hear Ak Zaaf mention on another thread that Gesink was equal to Cadel. I don't think so. Cadel is better than Basso and Gesink, but not enough in his chrono that he can negate Samu or Valverde's gains in the hills.

He will attack because first the rainbow jersey that he will be wearing proves that he can attack. So anyone who doubts his skills and power should rewatch the Worlds then come back. and he will also be much better supported in the mountains. Face it the last time he had real support was Horner and i believe there are strong climbers then him that will be at Cadels side in the ountains giving him more confidence to make moves.

Name the stronger support climbers. I suspect you believe, but don't have evidence to support your belief. That is cool. But you'll end up disappointed, like Evans, with the only fallback the old, reliable, whinge.

 

[Galic Ho]

I dont think AC will be alone either or not for too long the Astana team isnt as weak as everyone says. Cadel's team along with the Shack and Saxo are stronger though. Lance still could be a contender though he showed that last year but he wont be on the podium though i strongly believe that the third step will be between Basso, F. Schleck, Cadel, and Christian Vandevelde maybe even Nibali

Astana has 6 grand tour wins. BMC has none. Did you forget or not realise Vino and Perreiro are no slouches? They've both won a GT. Astana are much stronger than everyone realises. They are stronger than the Shack. Not that is matters. Contador on his own can beat all but Saxo and Caisse.

 

[Galic Ho]

Umm, even Evans can jump quicker than Basso. Or at least that's what I recall from the Vuelta this past year

That is how I recall as well. Same coach, but differences in their engines, despite both being diesels. Cadel is better for now. The we have this:

Maybe behind Basso but he will beat Menchov. Basso and Cadel will be a good matchup they will be close in the mountain but cadel will out TT him. Menchov just isnt consistent enough to beat Cadel.

Yes Menchov is below Cadel but has won three grand tours, including the last Giro. Menchov and Cadel are closer on par and style than almost any other riders. Menchov was consistent enough to be the only rider to matched Di Luca. Plus he was hands down ahead of Basso. I don't know where you come up with all these inconsistencies in your thinking. You've mixed the riders up in the above post.

 

[Cerberus]

Astana has 6 grand tour wins. BMC has none. Did you forget or not realise Vino and Perreiro are no slouches? They've both won a GT. Astana are much stronger than everyone realises. hey are stronger than the Shack

That's ridiculous. AC is stronger than anyone on the Shack of cause, but except for that LA is supported by 2 podium contenders (though probably outsiders in next years field), 2 top ten finishers and multiple other strong riders. AC is supported by what? Vino? Sure he won the Vuelta before his quarantine, but it remains to be seen that he can ride with the best after his quarantine. Pereiro isn't bad either, but we all know he won the tour because he got 30 minutes in a breakaway, his true strength is only top 10 potential and he had a crash in 2008 from which I've heard he hasn't fully come back.

Astana might not be as weak as everyone thinks but they're nowhere near as strong as Radioshack who are competing for the spot as the strongest team. I don't think they're strong enough to outweigh the gap between LA and AC, but they are very strong and could win the Team contest, even without trying.

 

[eljimberino]

Coming from a strongly individualistic mountain bike back ground, I think it has taken Cadel much longer to realise the overall tactics of road racing. He has had to figure the subtleties out psychologically, whereas I believe Contador has the subtleties in his bones. Take this for example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5NBSniSnos

Evans understands how to position his rivals, but manifesting it does not come naturally. It's like the wife from the Brady Bunch: you have five or so kids, then figure out you're playing a different game; didnt miss the boat entirely, just got on a few ports late.

 

[Galic Ho]

That's ridiculous. AC is stronger than anyone on the Shack of cause, but except for that LA is supported by 2 podium contenders (though probably outsiders in next years field), 2 top ten finishers and multiple other strong riders. AC is supported by what? Vino? Sure he won the Vuelta before his quarantine, but it remains to be seen that he can ride with the best after his quarantine. Pereiro isn't bad either, but we all know he won the tour because he got 30 minutes in a breakaway, his true strength is only top 10 potential and he had a crash in 2008 from which I've heard he hasn't fully come back.

Astana might not be as weak as everyone thinks but they're nowhere near as strong as Radioshack who are competing for the spot as the strongest team. I don't think they're strong enough to outweigh the gap between LA and AC, but they are very strong and could win the Team contest, even without trying.

Perreiro top 10 quality at best. You're accurate there. Many here would argue the Shack are in the same boat. The Shack will be strong for one race. Contador and Astana will be strong all year. You should watch Vino in the Giro. He'll win something and then he and Perreiro will pull for Alberto in France. The point was with those two and the new DS Astana is far from weak. Considering Astana kept one tour rider (who scored over half their wins in 2009) the Shack actually left the quality. Yet they're considered super strong. Hmph!

What were you suggesting in that last sentence? Astana cannot outweigh the gap or the Shack. Better be the Shack (which contradicts your points) because Contador on his own beats all of the Shack into the ground. Having Vino and Oscar by his side (along with his Spanish cohort) makes his job easier. By this I am referring to comments from Alberto that the Shack were not as attack oriented as he liked (a major reason why fans thought the Tour was a bore) as Bruyneel had the team ride defensive for Lance's podium. Yawnfest, not this year.

 

[Ferminal]

The Shack's problem will be that they will have two stronger riders supporting what will probably be a weaker one.

 

[Cerberus]

Perreiro top 10 quality at best. You're accurate there. Many here would argue the Shack are in the same boat. The Shack will be strong for one race. Contador and Astana will be strong all year. You should watch Vino in the Giro. He'll win something and then he and Perreiro will pull for Alberto in France. The point was with those two and the new DS Astana is far from weak. Considering Astana kept one tour rider (who scored over half their wins in 2009) the Shack actually left the quality. Yet they're considered super strong. Hmph!

I assumed we were talking about the Tour. Astana might do better in the classics.

What were you suggesting in that last sentence? Astana cannot outweigh the gap or the Shack. Better be the Shack (which contradicts your points) because Contador on his own beats all of the Shack into the ground.

I was suggesting that AC will beat LA despite having a significantly weaker Tour-team. And no I don't think that contradicts my point. I think AC could win the Tour supported by 8 overweight alcoholics, but that doesn't mean that would be a better Team than Radioshack. AC is by far the strongest rider and he is supported by a team that while not bad isn't on the same level as Saxo Bank or Radioshack.

 

[Galic Ho]

I assumed we were talking about the Tour. Astana might do better in the classics.


I was suggesting that AC will beat LA despite having a significantly weaker Tour-team. And no I don't think that contradicts my point. I think AC could win the Tour supported by 8 overweight alcoholics, but that doesn't mean that would be a better Team than Radioshack. AC is by far the strongest rider and he is supported by a team that while not bad isn't on the same level as Saxo Bank or Radioshack.

The only riders on the Shack who won anything last season were Kloden and Leipheimer. As I mentioned, they left the quality and his pistols behind at Astana. 11 wins of the teams 20 and rider of the year awards for AC at Astana. Apart from Kloden at Eneco and Levi in California, what can the Shack win? Lance and Bruyneel are yanking the chain if they believe they can win anything else. Yeah they may put two riders in the top 10 at the Tour, but one in the top 5 will be a solid effort given everyone is riding this year. Maybe Steegmans might win an odd sprint, but that is it. My point was that everything that made Astana 2009 so dominant was mostly because they had the trump card, Alberto Contador.

Hypothetically if Alberto hadn't raced in France, Astana would have been clueless (Lance, Levi or Andreas?). There would have been two Schleck's on the podium, instead of two Astana boys. My argument stands until the Shack actually race without Contador on the roster. Radioshack are not on the same level as Saxo, let alone Astana. Winning is what matters and Contador wins more alone than the entire Shack squad. When the going gets tough and the others peeled off, Contador stuck his ground and fought on.

Ferminal explained it well. Shack have two arguably superior riders supporting a lesser rider who conveniently one the Tour for a long period. That ruins the team right there. Horner was stronger than Lance at the Giro in 2009. Basically it comes down to vision and stats. People will argue when Lance finishes in front of the rest of his team he was strongest. No, they just worked selflessly for him and wore out. Astana, do the opposite, the team all support the strongest rider. Hence tactically and strategically they will be superior. Sure it hasn't played out yet, but it will.

 

[Cerberus]

The only riders on the Shack who won anything last season were Kloden and Leipheimer. As I mentioned, they left the quality and his pistols behind at Astana. 11 wins of the teams 20 and rider of the year awards for AC at Astana. Apart from Kloden at Eneco and Levi in California, what can the Shack win? Lance and Bruyneel are yanking the chain if they believe they can win anything else. Yeah they may put two riders in the top 10 at the Tour, but one in the top 5 will be a solid effort given everyone is riding this year. Maybe Steegmans might win an odd sprint, but that is it. My point was that everything that made Astana 2009 so dominant was mostly because they had the trump card, Alberto Contador.

I'm not sure if we're disagreeing about much. Radioshack has a strong support team for the Tour, but lacks a real contender for the win, though I think a podium finish could be possible. As for any other races they're probably not going to impress anybody.

 

[Boeing]

you have to attack with acceleration multiple times in multiple days in the mountains to win.

I guess you could call cadels efforts in the grand tours attacks if compared to past seasons. But they were not sustained accelerations. fortunately for him that was not required at worlds
Cadel attacks about as often and George Hincape in the classics. never.

no way jose he takes contador in the mountains and TT especially after a giro ride

 

[the big ring]

...
Fool. Not here. I regularly pick winners of multiple sports months (even years) before a crowning event. Questioning and using ones brain allows me to do this. Hence I am rarely shocked. Judging and questioning does not make one a fool. Not using your brain makes you a fool. As for not following the thread caveat, I stated who I thought would win an event, that Evans team is racing. Not everyone is so linear they cannot multitask and expand their dialogue.

Then I pick Nigella Lawson, she'd outcook anyone you've listed. I hope my non-linear multitasking expansion of this OT dialog is not beyond you.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Perhaps he should have attacked more in the past and perhaps he can even benefit from attacking more in the future, but attacking is no magic bullet. Attacking does not guarantee the strength to attack successfully. I just don't think he has the acceleration to drop Contador or Schleck. Certainly he should try if he thinks that either is having a bad day, but there's no guarentie that they will. They didn't have any this year.


That sounds realistic, depending of cause on how strong Evans and Schleck are on TTs in 2010. The problem however is whether Evans will be within 1min 30 of Schleck on the last TT. I'm guessing no.



I must admit I don't know all of those riders, but how many of them do you think will be able to hang on and support Evans when the favorites are attacking? I don't think any of them will.

The only teams who will have guys in the final 15 riders are the Shack and Saxo.

 

[auscyclefan94]

First bold. Fanboy fantasy right there. Alberto has stated who his threats are. Andy Schleck is his stated primary adversary and threat. Which of course means he will be solely racing Lance. Good to see you've been taking the Shack (Bruyneel and LA) PR so seriously. That first bold is living proof that spin works. Of course Alberto Contador's own opinion is meaningless and non revealing. Hmmmnnnn.

Second bold. There was no 'we'. Cadel was on his own. Who here loved it when Cadel had his typical whinge afterwards? It was funny. Even if he hadn't lost all the time you ignore that Samu had been dropped earlier and still beat Evans that day. Besides, Samu and Valverde would have attacked Evans later had they not gained time. They have his number in the climbs. I did hear Ak Zaaf mention on another thread that Gesink was equal to Cadel. I don't think so. Cadel is better than Basso and Gesink, but not enough in his chrono that he can negate Samu or Valverde's gains in the hills.



Name the stronger support climbers. I suspect you believe, but don't have evidence to support your belief. That is cool. But you'll end up disappointed, like Evans, with the only fallback the old, reliable, whinge.

Yes Samu was dropped earlier but the fact was that Evans would of gained time on Samu without the puncture and would of most likely not lost to Valverde. Samu, valverde, basso and gesink didn't ride much of or none of the tour. They all had targeted for this race.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I still think Contador will win the tour but what Moose Knuckles is saying that Evans can win it. Tatically their will be a lot of teams trying to knock off Contadir every which way they can which is why i think that it won't be very easy for Contador to win.Their will be a lot more teams vying for the title this year which will make the race very tatical. It maybe just my bias but I think evans is a little under rated when it comes to his climbing. He's no slouch and with no body expecting much from BMC it will take the pressure off his team. Though For 2010 tdf, once on the final climb, it will be mano a mano much more than other years.

Interesting to note that Evans has cut the classics from his program, on his site has his program and has nothing for april. Possibly a training camp for the giro???

 

[tjwracer]

COntador will have a tough time winning the tour but as much as I like Cadel he wont be the one with the chance to beat him that will be Andy Schleck who has proven he is the only one in the same league. But! Cadel is going to get on the podium his team is strong enough and like they say about wearing yellow and it makeing you stronger i think that Cadel will ride with the rainbow jersey with the same inspiration and courage as if he had yellow because for the first time sense the lemond days i believe the world champion will be at the front of a grand tour with a chance of winning. His team has sooo much experience with Hincapie Ballan Cadel himself Moos etc. he will have guys to support him maybe not the same caliber as liquigas and saxo bank but they will be there for a lot of the time i know that it is possible because we have seen Cancellara stay up there in the mountains for a long time so i know that it will be possible for some of BMC's climbers to hang around if they have the motivation and i bet George will be up there asweel for as long as possible.

 

[Hugh Januss]

COntador will have a tough time winning the tour but as much as I like Cadel he wont be the one with the chance to beat him that will be Andy Schleck who has proven he is the only one in the same league. But! Cadel is going to get on the podium his team is strong enough and like they say about wearing yellow and it makeing you stronger i think that Cadel will ride with the rainbow jersey with the same inspiration and courage as if he had yellow because for the first time sense the lemond days i believe the world champion will be at the front of a grand tour with a chance of winning. His team has sooo much experience with Hincapie Ballan Cadel himself Moos etc. he will have guys to support him maybe not the same caliber as liquigas and saxo bank but they will be there for a lot of the time i know that it is possible because we have seen Cancellara stay up there in the mountains for a long time so i know that it will be possible for some of BMC's climbers to hang around if they have the motivation and i bet George will be up there asweel for as long as possible.

Oh come on, Contador could lose 2 minutes to A Schleck in the mountains (which will never happen) and still beat him handily.

 

[Publicus]

The only teams who will have guys in the final 15 riders are the Shack and Saxo.

I don't think that's right. You are overlooking Liquigas (Nibali, Basso, Kreuzinger (sp)) and, frankly, Astana (Alberto and Tiralongo or Navarro or Hernandez or Vino (depends on who makes the team)). I mean you said 15 riders.

Astana doesn't have the names it had last year, but I don't think they are quite a U23 development team either. And Liquigas might be the strongest team at the Tour.

 

[Francois the Postman]

And Liquigas might be the strongest team at the Tour.

How can they? They don't speak English.

 

[karlboss]

Who will be the top 15 on the climbs? GC group only.

Armstrong, Kloden, leipheimer
Evans
Basso, Kreuziger, Nibali
Contador, Vinokourov
Shleck, Shleck
VdV
Wiggins
Valverde, Luis Leon Sanchez, Soler
Sanchez

There's 17, which won't be far off. I imagine changes a bit if a team wants to force the pace.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't think that's right. You are overlooking Liquigas (Nibali, Basso, Kreuzinger (sp)) and, frankly, Astana (Alberto and Tiralongo or Navarro or Hernandez or Vino (depends on who makes the team)). I mean you said 15 riders.

Astana doesn't have the names it had last year, but I don't think they are quite a U23 development team either. And Liquigas might be the strongest team at the Tour.

None of those guys from Astana will be in there but point taken about liquigas.

 

[karlboss]

So most here seem to think Cadel is some where between 3 and 10. Beyond disqualifications and crashes, what would it take for cadel to win? What sort of race would suit him?

 

[Ferminal]

Who will be the top 15 on the climbs? GC group only.

Armstrong, Kloden, leipheimer
Evans
Basso, Kreuziger, Nibali
Contador, Vinokourov
Shleck, Shleck
VdV
Wiggins
Valverde, Luis Leon Sanchez, Soler
Sanchez

There's 17, which won't be far off. I imagine changes a bit if a team wants to force the pace.

Menchov/Gesink

 

[karlboss]

Menchov/Gesink

didn't take too long for me to realise I've missed names, and may have been overly optimistic with others...was always going to happen.

Tactics? Sit on Lance's wheel as Cadel can match all Lance's accelerations, and if Lance is in trouble when Contador goes, Kloden will pull for you. Then take time in the TT. This is the tactic for 2nd or 3rd. The Cadel we know and love, but the only thing really suitable to his characteristics.
Any guesses on how he takes 1st?

 

[BroDeal]

Any guesses on how he takes 1st?

A few aussie fans sort Contador and Schleck out on one of the climbs.