You are Bruyneel: What's your plan? What are your tricks?

[Ninety5rpm]

Bruyneel has an incredible hand to play at this year's Tour... how would you do it?

The main objective is to win, probably with Contador, of course. But do you have any other goals? Try to win the TTT? Clearly. Try to put two, or even three on the podium? Why not?

How about putting Lance, Levi or Kloden in a break, forcing other teams vying for GC to chase, thus conserving the energy of most of the Astana team?

What would you do?

 

[ilillillli]

i think armstrong in a break makes sense... if the peloton will let him go. armstrong will ride his a$$ off to try and gain time and meanwhile the rest of the team can take care of contador, control the peloton and drop off one by one as they put the hurt on the final group of contenders. does that make sense?

otherwise, maybe have no plan until stage 7, winer of the stage gets the team.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

otherwise, maybe have no plan until stage 7, winer of the stage gets the team.

Yeah, with 7 guys protecting two, that could work in the first week.

 

[ilillillli]

Yeah, with 7 guys protecting two, that could work in the first week.

the only tricky part is that the last week, up until the 20th stage, is really, really challenging. the rider that's most fit at the beginning of the race (stage 1, 4, and 7) might not necessarily be the rider that's going to have form at the end of the race.

right now i think contador's in tip-top shape and i get the feeling that lance is still building for that last week. it'll be interesting...

 

[nobody]

If I were Bruyneel first I would flush their stored blood in toilets to avoid a positive tests or better I would send the usual check to Verbruggen.

 

[ilillillli]

If I were Bruyneel first I would flush their stored blood in toilets to avoid a positive tests or better I would send the usual check to Verbruggen.

oh, cool. good perspective. this adds a lot to the conversation*

*no it doesn't.

 

[patswana]

What would you do?

Call Dr. Ferrari and say "Michele, keep up the good work. The cheque's in the mail."

 

[byu123]

If I were Bruyneel first I would flush their stored blood in toilets to avoid a positive tests or better I would send the usual check to Verbruggen.

One definite tactic Bruyneel should have . . . if any Astana riders see this Jacka$$ running up the side of the road . . . push his a$$ into the ditch just like in the Tour of California.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3rjb4G8ZMI

 

[RightWingNutJob]

Interesting Topic. I would guess there would be many different options you could choose.
Assuming the both LA and AC or even Levi are in contention. You could send either LA, AC, Levi up the road forcing all the main GC rivals to chase letting the rest of the team suck wheels or Set the pace to try to slow the field in the same scenario.
Have Levi go up the road early in a break and wait for either LA or AC to attack later on then bridge up.
I think as the race gets older these tactics become less effective as it will be clear who the leader is, but if they are still close near the end then its even better.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Interesting Topic. I would guess there would be many different options you could choose.
Assuming the both LA and AC or even Levi are in contention. You could send either LA, AC, Levi up the road forcing all the main GC rivals to chase letting the rest of the team suck wheels or Set the pace to try to slow the field in the same scenario.
Have Levi go up the road early in a break and wait for either LA or AC to attack later on then bridge up.
I think as the race gets older these tactics become less effective as it will be clear who the leader is, but if they are still close near the end then its even better.

Interesting. So, to leave his options open, one of the goals might be to keep each of his potential contenders close enough to the yellow jersey for them to remain actual contenders. So.. don't give up too much in the TTs, and stay with Evans on the climbs? I could just see it now... Menchov, Sastre, Pelizotti and Evans dragging behind them, climb after climb... Kloden, Levi, Lance and Contador.

 

[chairmandave]

What would you do?

Send Contador's homeboy Paulinho on a 2-week Disney cruise and give Horner a spot on the team.

 

[RightWingNutJob]

Interesting. So, to leave his options open, one of the goals might be to keep each of his potential contenders close enough to the yellow jersey for them to remain actual contenders. So.. don't give up too much in the TTs, and stay with Evans on the climbs? I could just see it now... Menchov, Sastre, Pelizotti and Evans dragging behind them, climb after climb... Kloden, Levi, Lance and Contador.

Not sure if you would ever want to leave time on the road just to keep your riders together giving you a greater tactical advantage, rather use it early in the first few stages of the mountains when it probably wont be as clear on who the #1 guy is. But if it does turn out to be close the whole way through it certainly does give you a greater advantage in the other contenders having to mark two or three guys rather than just one.

 

[RightWingNutJob]

Not sure if you would ever want to leave time on the road just to keep your riders together giving you a greater tactical advantage, rather use it early in the first few stages of the mountains when it probably wont be as clear on who the #1 guy is. But if it does turn out to be close the whole way through it certainly does give you a greater advantage in the other contenders having to mark two or three guys rather than just one.

This too would be assuming that they would all be working for a team win and throw all the individual stuff aside.

 

[benpounder]

Have Levi go up the road early in a break and wait for either LA or AC to attack later on then bridge up.

If you are thinking of bridging, Zubeldia and Popoyvch would be better than Leipheimer. The advantage Astana has is that both Kloden and Leipheimer are riders that the other teams can not let loose. If either launch, then the other teams will be forced to respond, and AC and LA can tuck in behind and counter-counter attack when Andreas or Levi are caught.

In essence, it is what Rabobank(Menchov/Gesink), Saxobank(brothers Schleck), and Liquigas(Pellizotti/Kruzeinger) have except doubled.

 

[RightWingNutJob]

If you are thinking of bridging, Zubeldia and Popoyvch would be better than Leipheimer. The advantage Astana has is that both Kloden and Leipheimer are riders that the other teams can not let loose. If either launch, then the other teams will be forced to respond, and AC and LA can tuck in behind and counter-counter attack when Andreas or Levi are caught.

In essence, it is what Rabobank(Menchov/Gesink), Saxobank(brothers Schleck), and Liquigas(Pellizotti/Kruzeinger) have except doubled.

Good points, assuming this is early on where we don't yet have a favorite for GC on the team I can see this. But if later Levi or Kloden are say ?+ minutes behind I don't think the GC contenders will have a problem letting them go. Not sure though how many minutes they would have to be behind for this to happen though.

 

[dolophonic]

Send Contador's homeboy Paulinho on a 2-week Disney cruise and give Horner a spot on the team.

I think Not !

 

[Doug Laipple]

I am, admittedly, a novice at cycling strategy, but I KNOW I would keep any plans top secret, telling few, if any, of the riders even until after Stage 3.
I would be inclined to try to work 2 teams of 3 riders each, with 3 domestiques supporting both teams, until about Stage 7 or 8 .
I would then choose a tentative GC leader and ask the other 8 to throw all their support behind him, as long as he seems capable of winning the yellow.
If he falters, he becomes another support rider.

 

[53x11 in DC]

One definite tactic Bruyneel should have . . . if any Astana riders see this Jacka$$ running up the side of the road . . . push his a$$ into the ditch just like in the Tour of California.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3rjb4G8ZMI

BRILLIANT on 99 million levels

 

[benpounder]

But if later Levi or Kloden are say ?+ minutes behind I don't think the GC contenders will have a problem letting them go.

Yes, that is key. But if memory serves, the Astans/Disco/USPostal was always able to have multiple riders in the top twenty - but never before have they had duplicate multiple GT podium riders on roster.

It is mind numbing really - in the past decade these four riders have occupied over half (16) of the thirty podium finishers:

LA - 8 podiums (7 wins)
AC - 3 (3 wins)
LL - 3
AK - 2

[I'm leaving this up cuz it is a monumental brain fart]

 

[Snake8]

The Hog is not going to spend any bullets putting real riders in breaks, maybe the Kazak. I hate to say it but the rest will work for LA and AC in the same old bland way that has given us LA in yellow in Paris 7 times. The only real tactics challenge he faces is that he has two alpha dogs. They both think they can win. So his hand tactically is not so much about f'ing with the other teams, but making his team work as a team. In a way Astana are starting the race down two guys, the Kazak and one of LA/AC who will not carry bottles, not barf their balls through their lungs and lose twenty minutes on a stage for their leader...I don't see Bruyny as having a better hand this year. None of his really good riders will get away in breaks. His domestiques are going to have to protect two guys and the whole team is marked.

So, to sum, hog tactics 101: don't waste bullets, ever. Target a mountain stage or two and shred the peloton. Maintain or gain in the TT/TTT.

The beauty of this TdF is Ventoux. If anyone has anything left they are going to puke it up on Ventoux, unless of course LA/AC are up by seven by then with Levy/Kloper slotted into third and Horner home in Bend smashing his forehead into the TV and plotting how to kill Paulinho...

 

[ilillillli]

Call Dr. Ferrari and say "Michele, keep up the good work. The cheque's in the mail."

really? why do you even bother?

 

[Parrot23]

Sorry, this is a cross-post but I've posted it here. May make sense.

Can't comment on overall tactics, but on a sub-scenario of what I think a likely scenario is for Bertie to win (given the divided loyalties problem he/Astana is facing). Putting myself in Bertie's shoes here:

My feeling about a likely scenario:

1) A. Schleck will go for the long bomb on key stage (from far out), given his Liege performance, etc. The only way he can win the GC (unlikely).

2) Contador will tail him immediately (even if Schleck is not threatening the overall, re his TTs), knowing this is his chance to blow Lance off the road definitively.

3) Lance might try to follow, but could be dropped bigtime when Contador starts to counter-attack A. Schleck far from home (searing accelerations).

It's obvious what Schleck has to do. Contador has to be thinking this, esp. as the reliability/loyalty of his team/car is possibly compromised. He needs to think how he can leverage the other players, including against Lance.

Don't see this as breaking down entirely as team by team (but team-mate vs. team-mate in Astana, possibly at some pt.)

Just one scenario, but maybe makes sense in part. Alberto has to drop Lance; can't go like a procession to finishes.

NB: Menchov is the wild card here, though. LOL

 

[Snake8]

I am, admittedly, a novice at cycling strategy...I would be inclined to try to work 2 teams of 3 riders each, with 3 domestiques supporting both teams, until about Stage 7 or 8 .
I would then choose a tentative GC leader and ask the other 8 to throw all their support behind him, as long as he seems capable of winning the yellow.
If he falters, he becomes another support rider.

Here is why that wouldn't work:
1. There are only nine riders on a team. Can't do teams of three with three support riders...
2. The team is made of specialists that do specific jobs, you can't make a Rast into a Paulinho or the Kazak bottleboy into a Horner (DOH!).
3. The definition of leader says nothing about being tentative. Niether LA nor AC are tentative in their ambitions.
4. You race the TdF GC to win by protecting your best rider and letting them climb and TT well over a three week period. Generally speaking, you can't change horses mid-race in a three week stage race.

 

[Snake8]

Menchov is the wild card here, though. LOL

Menchov is cooked. If he were that good he would have already won a tour. I hope he does have a good tour, but i would be surprised if he did. I think he left his soul on the road in Rome...

 

[Parrot23]

Menchov has been SO quiet. Should see. Waiting for Sat.... LOL