You are Bruyneel: What's your plan? What are your tricks?

[The Falcon]

I don't think Cadel Evans will ever attack. Last year he just sat on and rode to second in the GC. He seems to be on the limit when teams that aren't even close to the strength of Astana are at the front pulling the peleton. I really don't see a podium finish for Cadel. Maybe, a top ten though.

we have a cycling genius on our hands here....

 

[dadoorsron]

we have a cycling genius on our hands here....

Had cadel Evans actions in any tour de france lead you to think any different. Only after Lance armstrong retired you saw evans in the final group up a mountian. It will be the same this year as well to. He'll be dropped and more then likely will be 4-5 minutes off the pace at the end of friday. But, you never know.

 

[chairvelo]

I'm just guessing here, but I think someone needs to explain the "Ignore" function to this mororn.

Oh, the irony: feeling superior for calling someone a "mororn"...

 

[Anonymous]

Oh, the irony: feeling superior for calling someone a "mororn"...

Ouch.........at least I didn't call him a "Mormon"....not that there is anything wrong with that.

 

[DalyPeleton]

With the first mountain stage tomorrow here would be my strategy. Set a blistering pace up to first Cat 1 climb, and if any early cracks appear, send Levi up the road with an early break. Make the other teams try to chase him down. This should set up a great chase up the last climb with Lance and Contador setting the pace. This would mean that only the pure climbers can maintain the right power ratios. If Andy Schleck want's to try and set the pace with his brother Frank, let him. They are already over two minutes back. The only remaining question would then be if they can crack Sastre. Either way, Lance or Alberto should be in yellow at the end of the day with good time margins on any serious GC contenders.

 

[elapid]

I don't think Cadel Evans will ever attack. Last year he just sat on and rode to second in the GC.

Blaxland said it - watch the Dauphine. Cadel was attacking most of that race.

Had cadel Evans actions in any tour de france lead you to think any different. Only after Lance armstrong retired you saw evans in the final group up a mountian. It will be the same this year as well to. He'll be dropped and more then likely will be 4-5 minutes off the pace at the end of friday. But, you never know.

Cadel's first TdF was Lance's final TdF before his comeback in 2005. A little inane to accuse Cadel of not being in the mix during the Armstrong era when they only raced one TdF against each other. Even then you are wrong because Cadel was in the mix in the mountains and eventually finished 8th in 2005. Not bad for your first crack at the TdF. As most people know, he has improved in subsequent years. That's maturity and team tactics, not because certain riders have retired or are not racing. Cadel's undoing this year was the TTT - and he had to wait for the rest of his team! This may actually result in more exciting racing in the mountains because he may be more inclined to continue his Dauphine form and throw caution to the wind and attack more often. If the Dauphine is an example of his reformed riding style, then he has hopefully emerged from the shadows of Levi and stopped his wheel sucking days.

 

[indurain666]

Had cadel Evans actions in any tour de france lead you to think any different. Only after Lance armstrong retired you saw evans in the final group up a mountian. It will be the same this year as well to. He'll be dropped and more then likely will be 4-5 minutes off the pace at the end of friday. But, you never know.

are you serious?

 

[look ma no hands]

Here is my take on the stage

Early in the race some insignificant break takes off the front, that will be caught halfway up the HC climb at the end.

Team Astana pulls up front from the start of the Cat 1 Climb.
After the descent, Astana picks up the pace and begins to drop people. As the road steepens we get left with 3 or 4 Astana Riders of them (Kloden and Levi) plus LA and AC. These 3 or 4 riders will pull LA and AC until all that is left is LA, AC, probably Evans, maybe Wiggins, maybe Vande velde, maybe sastre. But then I think we see a kick from Levi and all but 1 or 2 of those and LA and AC get dropped. After Levi burns his engines I think we see an attack from AC.
AC will pull LA to the finish and AC will get the stage win. But with a 37 year old man breathing down his neck.
This will put Lance in yellow and AC with the stage win.

Now I know there are a lot of LA haters on this forum. But here is my logic. LA is old, sure. He looked weak in the TT, but he said he was going conservative on the climb. He looked super strong as he pulled in the TTT. He says his wattage is higher than previous tour wins and his weight is lower. And it would be hard for anyone to claim that Lance couldnt climb in previous tour wins. He will be able to climb at least well enough to hold ACs wheel. But more importantly LA and AC will have MINUTES on the other rivals.

Those who said LA looked bad in the Giro didnt watch stage 16. He was impressive until he had to drop back and tow Levi home.

Here is my take on the rest of the tour, even though it wasnt solicited.
LA will be in yellow until the final TT. This is where he has the chance of losing it to AC. If he does lose it, which is very likely. I see LA and AC launching a group attack on Ventoux. One pulls, the other pulls, repeat... Everyone knows this is the stage Lance wants more than anything. I see Lance and Contador coming to the top of the mountain with no one else in sight. AC will sit up and give LA the stage win. Cant you see it now, a passing of the torch. Lance crosses the finish line of Ventoux winning the stage that has been his biggest regret followed, not a wheels length in behind him by the Malliot Jaune of Contador.

In this scenario LA gets exposure in yellow. AC gets the win he probably deserves.

let me know what you think.

 

[Anonymous]

Here is my take on the stage

Early in the race some insignificant break takes off the front, that will be caught halfway up the HC climb at the end.

Team Astana pulls up front from the start of the Cat 1 Climb.
After the descent, Astana picks up the pace and begins to drop people. As the road steepens we get left with 3 or 4 Astana Riders of them (Kloden and Levi) plus LA and AC. These 3 or 4 riders will pull LA and AC until all that is left is LA, AC, probably Evans, maybe Wiggins, maybe Vande velde, maybe sastre. But then I think we see a kick from Levi and all but 1 or 2 of those and LA and AC get dropped. After Levi burns his engines I think we see an attack from AC.
AC will pull LA to the finish and AC will get the stage win. But with a 37 year old man breathing down his neck.
This will put Lance in yellow and AC with the stage win.

Now I know there are a lot of LA haters on this forum. But here is my logic. LA is old, sure. He looked weak in the TT, but he said he was going conservative on the climb. He looked super strong as he pulled in the TTT. He says his wattage is higher than previous tour wins and his weight is lower. And it would be hard for anyone to claim that Lance couldnt climb in previous tour wins. He will be able to climb at least well enough to hold ACs wheel. But more importantly LA and AC will have MINUTES on the other rivals.

Those who said LA looked bad in the Giro didnt watch stage 16. He was impressive until he had to drop back and tow Levi home.

Here is my take on the rest of the tour, even though it wasnt solicited.
LA will be in yellow until the final TT. This is where he has the chance of losing it to AC. If he does lose it, which is very likely. I see LA and AC launching a group attack on Ventoux. One pulls, the other pulls, repeat... Everyone knows this is the stage Lance wants more than anything. I see Lance and Contador coming to the top of the mountain with no one else in sight. AC will sit up and give LA the stage win. Cant you see it now, a passing of the torch. Lance crosses the finish line of Ventoux winning the stage that has been his biggest regret followed, not a wheels length in behind him by the Malliot Jaune of Contador.

In this scenario LA gets exposure in yellow. AC gets the win he probably deserves.

let me know what you think.

I think Contador takes it before that and gifts Ventoux to LA.

 

[RigelKent]

Agreed, Thoughtforfood. Except AC can only gift a stage if Lance is ready to take it. The only way I see that happening is that he saves himself for another 2 weeks while the others cook. Other riders will be fighting for the podium. I think Armstrong has to take his glory while he can.

 

[dgodave]

I love it. None of us really know what Cadel or LA have got... or for that matter Kloden or Canc (as a climber). Big mystery!
.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

I love it. None of us really know what Cadel or LA have got... or for that matter Kloden or Canc (as a climber). Big mystery!
.

I think you nailed it there. Cadel was impressive in the Dauphine. He was an attacking machine although he could not drop Valverde or AC. He is minutes down though with a weaker team. He cannot get yellow too early or the other teams will rip it off him like last year. He really has to dose his efforts well. I really don't think he has a shot.
LA is a quandary though. I wonder at his real intentions and whether he will help someone else win. I want to believe he is just being tactical with his comments about who is the leader, etc trying to confuse the other teams. I am not sure I believe it though. No doubt tomorrow will be really interesting.

 

[TibetT]

I fully expect Astana to enact a reply of the Postal years. I'm guessing that the rift between Lance and Contador is overestimated. They will try to isolate the remainig GC riders, gain more time and then sort out leadership later on. Kloden and Levi will work for the good of the team. LA and AC will simply follow wheels and rein in any attacks. LA as far as I am concerned is an unknown quantity. On Giro form he should be dropped - but looking at the fisrt few days - his form seems to be on the improve.

As for challengers - well at this stage I suspect we are down to only Evans, Sastre and A. Schleck. Menchov's Giro form seems to have gone south. Rodgers' fall looks to be the end of his chances. Not that I think he had the legs to stays with the boys in the mountains anyway.

Evans traditionally plays to his strength of hanging in on the climbs and limiting his losses. Even before the TTT I thought he looked like a a different, more mature rider this year. He is short on time to win the tour and he clearly knows the stakes are much higher ths year. I suspect he is going to be the surprise packet of this tour and put in some very serious attacks. Will they be good enought to break clear of the Astana bunch - not sure. To my mind he is still the biggest serious threat of the known GC men to an Astana podium. Mentally Evans looks to be very very calm this year and that is a dangerous thing..

Sastre lost more time in stage 6 and his team is split between him and Thor. He will be dangerous in the mountains, but I have my doubts if he can stays with big GC men (AC, LA?, AK, CE, AS?) when the attacks are on. Not doubting his ability, he is great in the mountains, but consistency might be where he loses it. Also he is going to lose time in the ITs to AC, LA etc.

Schlek - Andy could do anything in the mountains. I think he will find it more difficult to get a break on the GC men now that he is a marked man. He will also lose significant time in the IT. Ventoux may be sthe saving grace - but not sure he will be close enough by that stage. Stage win in the mountain - a good bet.