You are Bruyneel: What's your plan? What are your tricks?

[RightWingNutJob]

The Hog is not going to spend any bullets putting real riders in breaks, maybe the Kazak. I hate to say it but the rest will work for LA and AC in the same old bland way that has given us LA in yellow in Paris 7 times. The only real tactics challenge he faces is that he has two alpha dogs. They both think they can win. So his hand tactically is not so much about f'ing with the other teams, but making his team work as a team. In a way Astana are starting the race down two guys, the Kazak and one of LA/AC who will not carry bottles, not barf their balls through their lungs and lose twenty minutes on a stage for their leader...I don't see Bruyny as having a better hand this year. None of his really good riders will get away in breaks. His domestiques are going to have to protect two guys and the whole team is marked.

So, to sum, hog tactics 101: don't waste bullets, ever. Target a mountain stage or two and shred the peloton. Maintain or gain in the TT/TTT.

The beauty of this TdF is Ventoux. If anyone has anything left they are going to puke it up on Ventoux, unless of course LA/AC are up by seven by then with Levy/Kloper slotted into third and Horner home in Bend smashing his forehead into the TV and plotting how to kill Paulinho...

I think this is assuming that the leadership has not been decided? I wouldn't be surprised at all if it is already firmly in place and we see something totally unique but dominating by Astana.

 

[RightWingNutJob]

Sorry, this is a cross-post but I've posted it here. May make sense.

Can't comment on overall tactics, but on a sub-scenario of what I think a likely scenario is for Bertie to win (given the divided loyalties problem he/Astana is facing). Putting myself in Bertie's shoes here:

My feeling about a likely scenario:

1) A. Schleck will go for the long bomb on key stage (from far out), given his Liege performance, etc. The only way he can win the GC (unlikely).

2) Contador will tail him immediately (even if Schleck is not threatening the overall, re his TTs), knowing this is his chance to blow Lance off the road definitively.

3) Lance might try to follow, but could be dropped bigtime when Contador starts to counter-attack A. Schleck far from home (searing accelerations).

It's obvious what Schleck has to do. Contador has to be thinking this, esp. as the reliability/loyalty of his team/car is possibly compromised. He needs to think how he can leverage the other players, including against Lance.

Don't see this as breaking down entirely as team by team (but team-mate vs. team-mate in Astana, possibly at some pt.)

Just one scenario, but maybe makes sense in part. Alberto has to drop Lance; can't go like a procession to finishes.

NB: Menchov is the wild card here, though. LOL

I would love to see something with GC implications take place before the final climb. That would be great.

 

[Snake8]

I think this is assuming that the leadership has not been decided? I wouldn't be surprised at all if it is already firmly in place and we see something totally unique but dominating by Astana.

What other than pulling ideas from the air blowing by your head gives you this idea? ;-) Seriously, you have to explain...

 

[RightWingNutJob]

What other than pulling ideas from the air blowing by your head gives you this idea? ;-) Seriously, you have to explain...

By unique I mean something different then the Astana team coming to the front and setting a difficult pace to launch AC or LA on the final climb. That has for certain happened in the past, but he has also never had the opportunity with having two guys who you could consider favorites for the GC.
As I said previously there are many different ways they could go about as long as everyone is on board with it. Don't know if that would happen although I can hope.

 

[Anonymous]

Johan can a conservative manager. He'll make the race boring if he can. Witness Contador winning the 08 Giro with the dwindling lead.

I don't think team leadership will be a problem and we shouldn't get our pants in a wad if it doesn't play out early.

In 07 Contador didn't have a good prolog and doesn't even crack the top ten until the stage 8 mountaintop a day after they'd climbed Col de la Colombière. and Levi was not far off. Who know how things might have played out if Levi had not had a mechanical and a penalty that day. Levi overall even time trialled slightly better. The 10 penalty alone cost him second in final GC.

Johan will have a plan. That plan probably won't last long. He gets paid for thinking on his feet. The real artists are the ones who can improvise.

 

[byu123]

The Hog is not going to spend any bullets putting real riders in breaks, maybe the Kazak. I hate to say it but the rest will work for LA and AC in the same old bland way that has given us LA in yellow in Paris 7 times. The only real tactics challenge he faces is that he has two alpha dogs. They both think they can win. So his hand tactically is not so much about f'ing with the other teams, but making his team work as a team. In a way Astana are starting the race down two guys, the Kazak and one of LA/AC who will not carry bottles, not barf their balls through their lungs and lose twenty minutes on a stage for their leader...I don't see Bruyny as having a better hand this year. None of his really good riders will get away in breaks. His domestiques are going to have to protect two guys and the whole team is marked.

So, to sum, hog tactics 101: don't waste bullets, ever. Target a mountain stage or two and shred the peloton. Maintain or gain in the TT/TTT.

The beauty of this TdF is Ventoux. If anyone has anything left they are going to puke it up on Ventoux, unless of course LA/AC are up by seven by then with Levy/Kloper slotted into third and Horner home in Bend smashing his forehead into the TV and plotting how to kill Paulinho...

LMAO! . . . I don't advocagte violence and have nothing against Paulinho personally but I do think Horner got absolutely screwed unjustifiably. The image of him smashing his head against the TV is probably more real than contrived. If I were him I would be pi$$ed.

 

[ilillillli]

Here is why that wouldn't work:
1. There are only nine riders on a team. Can't do teams of three with three support riders...
2. The team is made of specialists that do specific jobs, you can't make a Rast into a Paulinho or the Kazak bottleboy into a Horner (DOH!).
3. The definition of leader says nothing about being tentative. Niether LA nor AC are tentative in their ambitions.
4. You race the TdF GC to win by protecting your best rider and letting them climb and TT well over a three week period. Generally speaking, you can't change horses mid-race in a three week stage race.

here's why this would work:

until stage 7, every stage is either a time trial or flat. the entire team has an interest in keeping the group together and eliminating large time gaps. stage 7 is the first team-modulated selection.

 

[ilillillli]

I think this is assuming that the leadership has not been decided? I wouldn't be surprised at all if it is already firmly in place and we see something totally unique but dominating by Astana.

i don't think it's possible that it's firmly decided yet. could you really imagine either lance or alberto ceding all control of the team before the race starts? i can't.

 

[benpounder]

i don't think it's possible that it's firmly decided yet. could you really imagine either lance or alberto ceding all control of the team before the race starts?

Yes...

i can't.

'nuf said.

 

[issoisso]

Whatever he's got planned, it'll change on the spot.

You can't possibly predict what's going to happen for three weeks.

Just don't expect many Astanas in breaks unless it's after the mountains and they're far behind on GC (not bloody likely)

 

[patswana]

The advantage Astana has is that both Kloden and Leipheimer are riders that the other teams can not let loose. If either launch, then the other teams will be forced to respond, and AC and LA can tuck in behind and counter-counter attack when Andreas or Levi are caught.

What could be funny is if Kloden or Leipheimer do attack and no other teams respond. We'd then learn how good Armstrong and Contador are at being 'team players'.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

What could be funny is if Kloden or Leipheimer do attack and no other teams respond. We'd then learn how good Armstrong and Contador are at being 'team players'.

Thanks, that made me laugh.

Laughing aside, it's a good point.

 

[Doug Laipple]

To Snake 8 ... a clarification:
1. I was not trying to put 12 riders on the team. I stated there would be two teams, essentially of 4 1/2 riders each. The 3 domestiques would be supporting both teams.
In actuality, so would the other riders, as their assignment may change during the stage ... Popo may be supporting LA on one climb and AC on the next. It's just that, at any one point in the race, LA would have 2 support riders plus the domestiques, and AC would have two support riders plus the domestiques.
2. I think that each specialist would be able to continue doing his job and still maintain the order as in 1 most of the time.
3. Neither LA nor AC would be required to be tentative any more than they would if they were already designated as THE GC guy.
4. I may not be a good strategist, but I know darn well that a lot of teams have had to change horse in the middle of the stream in past Tours, and some of them with good success. The task for the 7 support riders continues to be to protect LA and AC, but accidents happen, people get sick, and sometimes a leader's biorhythm hits bottom when a good support guy gets hot and starts performing like a banshee. JB can go with the flow as well as any director.

 

[unsheath]

Stick to his normal MO.

1) Recruit the opposition - Sh*t it's already too late and the team is broke.
2) Have Ferrari and McQuaid on speed dial
3) Have a Digi, notepad and pen ready for group blackballing at the press conferences

Racing wise, I'll be keeping my attention to the clean teams.

 

[**Uru**]

He will have his team ride a blistering pace and send AC and LA up to the front on the final climb. Have you people been paying attention the last 10 years?

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Racing wise, I'll be keeping my attention to the clean teams.

Ah, so you're going out to watch some local amateur racing this weekend?

 

[Ninety5rpm]

He will have his team ride a blistering pace and send AC and LA up to the front on the final climb. Have you people been paying attention the last 10 years?

"Now, Lance, now! Allez! Allez! Allez!"

Oops, I meant to say Alberto.

 

[aarnold517]

What I think would be an interesting scenario is if someone like pelizotti attacks and takes with him gesink and levi or kloden. Do the bigger favorites watch each other and let these guys get away? If they get a big enough gap (say a few minutes) by the end of the stage do AC, LA and menchov still lead their teams or do they work for the others?

 

[ilillillli]

@benpounder:

really? you can imagine lance saying "i came out of retirement and launched this entire new PR campaign to ride in support of alberto contador." ?

or alberto saying "i'm the odds-on favorite to win, but this year i will ride in full support of lance."

i really don't see how you can think that. who's the domestique?

 

[*G*K*S*]

The beauty of this TdF is Ventoux. If anyone has anything left they are going to puke it up on Ventoux, unless of course LA/AC are up by seven by then with Levy/Kloper slotted into third and Horner home in Bend smashing his forehead into the TV and plotting how to kill Paulinho...

I snickered.

Ta.

 

[Angliru]

Bruyneel has stated that it's his intention to try to keep Contador, Armstrong and Leipheimer as high up in the gc as possible for the entire 3 weeks thus increasing their chances of overall victory should any of the 3 have a bad day. The same probably applies to Kloden who in my opinion is the better all around grand tour rider when compared to Leipheimer. As stated more than once earlier sending any of the 4 off in a break will make the other contenders' teams have to work to bring them back or at the least to limit their time losses all while Astana sits in for the ride. If the break is brought back, Astana has the guns to keep launching attacks with different riders that are definite threats/or to answer attacks, each time with a rider that is a threat to take the overall.

I think the only given is Contador, who has proven over the past 2 years that he is head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders. Armstrong, while his record is incomparable, is still an unknown in terms of what he's capable of after his 3 year "vacation" from competition. Unlike in the 7 years that he won the Tour where in the preceding events that he used as "training" he always at least showed that he was rounding into shape even while still punishing his opponents, this year we have not seen that level of fitness.

The last time we saw him versus elite competition he was getting dropped on the climbs and showing little of the TT dominance that he showed prior to retirement. Yes he showed improvement as the Giro progressed but he was but a shadow of the climber that he used to be. Add to the equation that this is the first time that he will have ridden the Giro and Tour in the same season, at age 37, I would bet that even he deep down is less than the confident, cocky rider he normally is going into Saturday's 1st stage, especially with his strongest competitor being on his own team.

Leipheimer, also 37, many believed peaked too soon with one peak being for the ToC where he targeted the overall and the other being for the Giro, where he was thrust into the ride leadership when Armstrong injured his clavicle crashing in Castilla de Leon (is that name right?). After a competitive
first 2 weeks at the Giro, Leipheimer ran out of steam and was soon unable to even hang on to Armstrong's wheel in the later climbs. While Armstrong was getting stronger, Leipheimer was struggling. Leipheimer appeared to have carried over his fitness to the CdL and began losing it about midpoint of the Giro. Still holding out hope for that unanswered attack that puts him over the top, in the yellow jersey and ultimately the top step of the Tour podium, he's hoping to creep into Tour history by nature of the overwhelming strength of his team. It could happen but I'm personally hoping and praying against it for strictly personal reasons.

If I were Kloden I would go off on an epic attack building up a 25 minute lead on the peloton and coast my way to a shocking overall Tour victory, shocking the world and in his podium acceptance speech he would dedicate his win to his family and his good friend Jan Ullrich!! That would be classic.

 

[Amsterhammer]

There are a few here with very warped imaginations....and some good one liners.

 

[Andre.J]

I would tell Contador not to drink from Kloden or Lance's bottle.

 

[ilillillli]

I would tell Contador not to drink from Kloden or Lance's bottle.

do the people that write these things think they're being clever?

 

[Anonymous]

do the people that write these things think they're being clever?

Do you think you are?