Your Tour Predictions

[Ferminal]

Who do people think actually have some realistic chance of beating AC?

I mean, we all put Schleck 2nd or around there, but he can at best match him in the mountains, and then lose quite a bit on the TT. Sanchez is better at the TT than Piti, and they're pretty equal in the mountains (apart from Sierra Nevada 09) - these two haven't been in a GT with AC since 08 to properly compare to him in the mountains. Gesink, Kreuziger and Nibali can all climb and TT, but they're probably still a step away from properly challenging. Kreuziger's probably a bit ahead of those two?

I can see Menchov sticking to Andy and AC (not on every MTF obviously) like he stuck to Di Luca if he's in great form. And he'll beat them both on the flat TT. I think, assuming nothing untoward (injury etc) happens to AC, that Menchov is the only guy who has a chance..

No one has a realistic chance

Piti for me, but I guess that's a little bit harder without time bonuses.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

You all are so racist, I don't see a single Frenchman on those lists.

One of the reasons I enjoy Le Tour so much nowadays

From the lists before, I think that people are over rating Valverde and Samuel Sanchez in a 3 week tour.

If a Frenchman makes the top ten I will run a lap of the Champs D'Elysees naked

Here's mine:

Contador
A Schleck
Lance
Sastre
Evans
Menchov
Nibali
Sir Bradley of Wiggins
Kreuziger
Valverde

I could probably list another 10 before a French name might appear...

Green jersey:

(Not necessarily in this order)

Cav
Thor
EBH

Prediction: Chicci will steal a stage from Cav by being sneaky and tagging on his wheel.

Cav will win his stages but I couldn't name the winner.

Mountains:

Pelizotti
Fedrigo (I did it)
Gesink


Lantern Rouge goes to BroDeal for his Wiggins prediction. (Still will see )

 

[Galic Ho]

Tom Boonen will win the Prologue, top 3 in ITT and one sprinting stage.

Best prediction so far. When this does happen I am shouting you and Tom Boonen both a line of blow. Then you can sit back and watch his pick-up skills and their effect on the 16 year old Belgian groupies. It will be as funny as this prediction. Great comment! Tom Boonen winning Prologue! Love it!

 

[Galic Ho]

Should not we be making Giro predictions before Tour predictions? Or is the Giro too unimportant to bother with?

I've been saying for a few months that Sastre will win it. Personally I'd love to see Cadels face when Carlos once again drops him and relegates him to his perennial bridesmaid position: second on GC to a Spaniard. I noticed Aussiecyclefan started a Giro predictions thread and am about to check it out.

 

[tgsgirl]

Best prediction so far. When this does happen I am shouting you and Tom Boonen both a line of blow. Then you can sit back and watch his pick-up skills and their effect on the 16 year old Belgian groupies. It will be as funny as this prediction. Great comment! Tom Boonen winning Prologue! Love it!

Yeah, he finished a full nine seconds behind Cancellara in the Vuelta prologue whilst crashing, there's not a chance in hell he can do anything in the TdF prol... wait a minute.
(and the 16 year old was Dutch)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

doesn't that make him a traitor for fraternising with the enemy? Or are the Walloons the 'real' enemy?

 

[tgsgirl]

doesn't that make him a traitor for fraternising with the enemy? Or are the Walloons the 'real' enemy?

Depends on who dumped whom I suppose

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ça plane pour moi.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It's not that unlikely that some GC contenders will take quite a lot of time on AC on the cobbles, perhaps more than 5 minutes even if he has some punctures +falls+bad team support. Don't think he'd be able to take back 5 minutes on Andy Schleck, although he'd probably still be close.

I can see the cobbles being very anti-climax in terms of the GC.

 

[Galic Ho]

Yeah, he finished a full nine seconds behind Cancellara in the Vuelta prologue whilst crashing, there's not a chance in hell he can do anything in the TdF prol... wait a minute.
(and the 16 year old was Dutch)

I never said he couldn't win the prologue. My claim was him doing all 3 of Andrichuk's predictions is very slim. I personally like the guy. Great rider. I hope he wins a classic and some stages in a GT this year.

As for the 16 year old. I was joking. I did however forget she was Dutch. My bad. Boonen is class on a bike. Great to watch. Good personality as well. I'm glad he doesn't have Alan Davis on his team anymore so I won't have to listen to all the self righteous aussie haters flame Boonen for the first week of the Tour because "Alby gave up his spot for a doper."

 

[Galic Ho]

I can see the cobbles being very anti-climax in terms of the GC.

Dito. 17kms of cobbles in Summer. Yeah, I can see half the GC losing minutes there! As if that is going to happen. Fantasies. Everyone has them. The cobbles will be a non event for everyone. All the GC guys will be protected.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Dito. 17kms of cobbles in Summer. Yeah, I can see half the GC losing minutes there! As if that is going to happen. Fantasies. Everyone has them. The cobbles will be a non event for everyone. All the GC guys will be protected.

So your going to tell me that nobody will have crashes and none of the teams will at least try something or put the hammer down?

 

[Kingsley A]

Dito. 17kms of cobbles in Summer. Yeah, I can see half the GC losing minutes there! As if that is going to happen. Fantasies. Everyone has them. The cobbles will be a non event for everyone. All the GC guys will be protected.

Indeed, there were cobbled sections in the early stages of last years Vuelta but with the exception of one domestique snapping his head set there were no major crashes or time gaps there. The crashes on those stages were all away from the cobbled sections.

 

[theswordsman]

The Tour announced they'll detail the cobbled sections in mid-April to give time to do recon. But Pez Cycling News seemed to have a pretty good take on what will be included on the French side. I watched a couple of youtube tapes about the Arenberg Trench, but the finish line will be at the entrance to that, so it's not included. Does anyone have info on the other sectors? I've only watched a couple of classics in the past, and don't know which stretches of pave normally make the TV coverage.

Stage 3: Wanze - Arenberg, 207 km
The 207km third stage stars in Wanze (close to Huy and its famous Mur) and with the finish town of Arenberg Porte du Hainaut, including the name of the most famous stretch of stones from Paris-Roubaix, you know that this is the place where it is all going to happen. Before the riders even leave Belgium, they will need to negotiate three small sections of pave (giving a total of two kilometres) before crossing the border for the main event. The brief asphalt run after the Belgian stones will give the peloton just enough time to get worked into a frenzy of making position.

The 2004 Tour got a little dose of cobbles, two sectors, and it mutilated the field - a group of 90 made it to the line together. What will happen in 2010 with FOUR sectors?

They're not fooling around in Stage 3. The Tour de France will get a real kick in the *** courtesy of some ancient French rocks. The race will take in FOUR sectors of cobbles (yes, we're in Paris-Roubaix territory now - we call em sectors around here) straight from the heart of Paris-Roubaix: Sector 14 Tilloy à Sars-et-Rosières, Sector 15 Warlaing à Brillon, Sector 16 Hornaing à Wandignies-Hamage, and finishing with Sector 18 Haveluy à Wallers. 11 kilometers of cobbles in 20 kilometers, four sectors in the final 27.5 kilometers, and the finish line is only 6.5k following the exit from the Haveluy punishment.

While avoiding crashes, picking a good line over the stones and not allowing the gaps to open are all important skills on the cobbles, the real dangers will come when nearly 200 riders are all trying to follow their team orders and move to the front on roads approaching the cobbles where there is only enough room for about 8 or ten men (max!) to ride shoulder to shoulder.

http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=7615

 

[luckyboy]

So your going to tell me that nobody will have crashes and none of the teams will at least try something or put the hammer down?

None of the GC guys are great on the cobbles, so if any one of the GC teams put the pressure on, they'd be risking their own guy. If QST brought their classics guys, they could destroy the field though.

 

[auscyclefan94]

None of the GC guys are great on the cobbles, so if any one of the GC teams put the pressure on, they'd be risking their own guy. If QST brought their classics guys, they could destroy the field though.

That's why some teams with cobbled riders would get their team leader up the front and start riding. Their wasa huge split in 2004 with only 2 sectors of cobbles so why not some splts and time gaps this year?

 

[Sasquatch]

If a Frenchman makes the top ten I will run a lap of the Champs D'Elysees naked

You better prepare yourself then.

One of Le Mevel, Voeckler, Chavanel or Moncoutie will ride into the top 10 thanks to a successful breakaway. Voeckler seems to be climbing well this time of year, if he brings these legs to July, you might end up running naked.

I favour Le Mevel getting 9th or 10th.

I'm surprised guys don't have Michael Rogers in their top 10. He'll benefit from a break too.

 

[Inner Peace]

When push comes to shove, Rogers will be used to pull in the breaks for Cavendish and/or Griepel..

Would love to see him go for GC, but in a tour with potential 20 guys all capable of a top ten, he will quickly get squeezed out the back in my opinion.

Stapleton knows this, despite at times suggesting Martin and Rogers have free reign on GC, it just won't happen. Cav is too important for them to not give 100%, otherwise Hagen or Hushovd will take green

 

[tgsgirl]

I never said he couldn't win the prologue. My claim was him doing all 3 of Andrichuk's predictions is very slim. I personally like the guy. Great rider. I hope he wins a classic and some stages in a GT this year.

I don't see him doing all three either, so good to know we're on the same page!
(and I was kidding about the 16 yr old as well. Also, I was pretty cranky re: dissertation work when I wrote that )

 

[Glockers]

When push comes to shove, Rogers will be used to pull in the breaks for Cavendish and/or Griepel..

Would love to see him go for GC, but in a tour with potential 20 guys all capable of a top ten, he will quickly get squeezed out the back in my opinion.

Stapleton knows this, despite at times suggesting Martin and Rogers have free reign on GC, it just won't happen. Cav is too important for them to not give 100%, otherwise Hagen or Hushovd will take green

This unfortunately. Part of me believes in Rogers didn't crash in 07 (or was it 06?) that he would have podiumed at least and maybe even won the Tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

This unfortunately. Part of me believes in Rogers didn't crash in 07 (or was it 06?) that he would have podiumed at least and maybe even won the Tour.

No way....

 

[Glockers]

Why not? He was in virtual yellow and building on his lead. He was a solid climber who could defend the jersey and his time trialling back then was fantastic.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Why not? He was in virtual yellow and building on his lead. He was a solid climber who could defend the jersey and his time trialling back then was fantastic.

lol. come on...
virtual leader? yeah that's not quite the same as leader.
He has never been a real GT contender, he wouldn't have cut it in the mountains. And his TTing was never fantastic in the tour. No way he would have podiumed or won.

 

[Glockers]

Virtual after a couple of cat 1 and HC climbs if I remember right.

This was a few years ago after he had spent a few years hauling Virenque's *** up mountains and into contention.

I am not saying he is a genuine GC winner guy or ever was.

I am saying in that particular break and not crashing he would have gained a few minutes lead in the yellow by the end of the stage. His time trialling ability would have helped possibly gain or at least maintain the gap and would give him a fighting chance at yellow that year.

Remember he has finished in the top 20 a couple of times, I believe once in the top 10. This isn't some average hack. We have seen him ride up the HC cat climbs with the lead group in the past (especially when he was with Quick Step but he was the domestique for Richard which meant we have never really seen just how good he was/is).

I truly believe he was at his peak when he crashed, I also believe no one thought he was a top 5 threat and he was a darkhorse. he gains a few minutes then shocks everyone by holding on to Paris.

It is a hypothetical, but I don't think it is an unbelievable one.

 

[BroDeal]

It is a hypothetical, but I don't think it is an unbelievable one.

Oh, get real. Rasmussen was the only one who survived. No way could Rogers stay anywhere close to Rasmussen. The others in the break were caught and passed by the likes of Mayo, Valverde, and Evans.