I decided to do a small write-up of my assessment of the favorites for tomorrow:
***** Cancellara, Sagan
Fabian and Peter are the two big favorites. No question about it. Cancellara is perhaps as strong as ever, but so is Sagan. I'd give a slight edge to Cancellara on the bergs, but a slight edge to Sagan in a sprint - even though Sagan has a history of losing a bit of his sprinting ability at the end of a hard race, and Cancellara usually shines here. The question really comes down to if Cancellara can drop Sagan on the bergs? It's really close between the two, but if I have to choose, I'll pick Sagan as the winner.
**** Van Avermaet
The consistent Belgian seems to have taken another step up this year, continuing his steady progress. He has been one of the best riders this year and took a great victory ahead of Sagan in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. If anyone is capable of staying with Sagan and Cancellara when they open up, it's Van Avermaet.
*** Kwiatkowski, Vanmarcke, Kristoff
I might rate Kwiatkowski higher than many would for Flanders, but to me he seems back to his best after a not so good 2015 campaign. He has yet to prove that he can follow the best on the cobbled climbs, but he showed a lot of promise in 2013. He's good on steep hills and excels in hard races. However, his greatest skill is his racing instincts which in my opinion are second to none. He could benefit from a tactical race between the big favorites and win from a clever attack.
Vanmarcke should always be counted among the favorites even though that big win is still missing. He's almost always among the strongest, even though I don't think he has looked as strong as usual this year.
Kristoff started the season with a bang, but has performed a bit below expectations in the Belgians classics so far. However, he seems back on track with his victory in De Panne. The real question is if he's capable of following Cancellara et al when they attack? If he is, he's certainly the favorite in a sprint.
** Terpstra, Stybar, Boonen, Thomas, Benoot
We might as well call the three star category the Etixx-category. Etixx have performed way below expectations in the Belgian classics this year, and neither of their riders have looked particularly impressive. Terpstra took their only win in Le Samyn and his engine seems to be working, but he hasn't looked that sharp on the hills. Stybar on the other hand has looked decent on the hills, but seems to lack the stamina to keep up with the best. Boonen is already a legend but has performed well below par so far this year. It seems as though Etixx will have to come up with some clever tactics - which they aren't exactly known for - if they don't want to go home empty handed.
Focusing on stage races this year, Thomas is heading to Belgium to focus on this one race. He was very good in the Belgian classics last year and he seems even stronger in 2016. Keeping up with the best on the bergs might be a big ask of the Brit, but he shouldn't be ruled out.
Benoot is one of the biggest classics talents for a long time, finishing 5th in his Flanders debut last year. This year he looks just as strong as in 2015 but even though he packs a decent sprint he will have to get rid of the likes of Van Avermaet and Sagan if he wants to win.
* Stannard, Hagen, Boom, Stuyven, Roelandts, Demare, Trentin
The best of the rest. Here we have designated helpers like Stannard and Stuyven who are unlikely to ride their own chances, but it wouldn't be that surprising if Sky and Trek uses them tactically. Roelandts and Trentin also have other captains in their teams, but they will probably be given more freedom than Stannard and Stuyven. Roelandts have previously done some good rides in Flanders and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him on the offense once again this year. Trentin doesn't have quite as good results on the cobbles - he does have a third place in E3 from 2015 though - but he seems to have stepped up this year, as he on occasions actually has been the strongest Etixx rider. He packs a very fast finish, but will he make it to the end with the favorites?
Neither of Demare, Hagen and Boom have stellar results to show for in Flanders - Boom is best with a sixth place last year - but they should all be counted among the outsiders. On paper, Hagen seems very suited for this race but his best result is a 17th place. Will this finally be the year he makes a good result? Boom was good last year, but it seems hard for him to win. He won't win the sprint so he will have to get rid of the likes of Kristoff, Sagan and Van Avermaet. Demare on the other hand is one of the best sprinters in the world and seems perhaps better than ever this year, but it's hard to imagine him staying with the best on the hills.
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