104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

I disagree with that. And even if I didn’t, I think the fact that Sagan rode the whole cobbled season is the bigger factor in him not riding LBL. The Ardennes doesn’t fit in his program. I think it’s a shame, I think he’s a genuine contender to win all 5 monuments if he wants to.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

What makes you to think so?

just watch u23 tour l'avenir results. And that was in one of the strongest fields in years (1990 generation). Plus 5th in FW and last year 4th in LBL. I think it's really obvious.

People vastly underrate Matthews climbing abilities because at Orica he barely tried. They turned him into their main sprinter.
Now at Sunweb his climbing abilities are coming up again.

I don't think that, I think it's obvious and pretty much a fact. But ofcourse saying any rider is better in anything at all than Sagan is an unpopular statement

 

[jaylew]

Re:

I can't tell who will win this bike race, but I'll tell who's not going to win it: Matthews, Dumoulin and Thomas!

This. I don't know why any of these guys have even been mentioned. Bling has the best shot but I think the race will be raced too hard for him and he'll finish back half of the top 10 at best.

 

[krakenKE]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

What makes you to think so?

just watch u23 tour l'avenir results. And that was in one of the strongest fields in years (1990 generation). Plus 5th in FW and last year 4th in LBL. I think it's really obvious.

People vastly underrate Matthews climbing abilities because at Orica he barely tried. They turned him into their main sprinter.
Now at Sunweb his climbing abilities are coming up again.

I don't think that, I think it's obvious and pretty much a fact. But ofcourse saying any rider is better in anything at all than Sagan is an unpopular statement

Well Sagan did not compete there, did he? You know that in 2010 Sagan was 20 year old neopro who won 2 P-N Stages and one Tour de Romandie stage.

I have never seen Matthews to do something similar like Sagan did in Stage 5 of 2017 TA, Stage 7 of 2015 ToC, Stage 3 of 2013 TdS, Stage 6 of 2013 TA, Stage 3 of 2011 TdS. In fact I saw him here (from 10:50): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3i3mOADq2c&t=1452s

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

While I fully understand and agree Thomas, Dumoulin and Matthews are not the guys who should be talked about, I would like to mention LBL is more often won by an outsider than you'd think.

Poels, Gerrans, Iglisnky, Hamilton, Camenzind I'd even add Vino (when he 1st won) and D.Martin were not absolute top favorites when they won it.
Some of these not even long shots.

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

What makes you to think so?

just watch u23 tour l'avenir results. And that was in one of the strongest fields in years (1990 generation). Plus 5th in FW and last year 4th in LBL. I think it's really obvious.

People vastly underrate Matthews climbing abilities because at Orica he barely tried. They turned him into their main sprinter.
Now at Sunweb his climbing abilities are coming up again.

I don't think that, I think it's obvious and pretty much a fact. But ofcourse saying any rider is better in anything at all than Sagan is an unpopular statement

Well Sagan did not compete there, did he? You know that in 2010 Sagan was 20 year old neopro who won 2 P-N Stages and one Tour de Romandie stage.

I have never seen Matthews to do something similar like Sagan did in Stage 5 of 2017 TA, Stage 7 of 2015 ToC, Stage 3 of 2013 TdS, Stage 6 of 2013 TA, Stage 3 of 2011 TdS. In fact I saw him here (from 10:50): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3i3mOADq2c&t=1452s

I know and remember those stages. Still does not change my opinion. I've seen Matthews win a semi mountain stage in the Giro with finish uphill.

With all the respect of TdS/Ta/ToC, it's a step lower, the level is lower.
Plus, "sagan wasn't there" is not an argument. You can only beat who is there. Otherwise I can repel you those resulst with a simple "Matthews wasn't there in X and X race". I'd refrain from using those type of arguments

 

[Flat Out]

Re: Re:

I must be the only one who thinks nibs didnt go all out in FW. It seemed more like a good training without forcing anything.
But yeah he doesnt seem to be at his very best.

I'm considering that as well. He needed to hold back for the final ascent anyway, and when he knew it wouldn't happen he sorta let it go

I read he had 310W Normalized Power at FV, more than RVV, so it was not a walk in the park for sure. That said, he will attack somewhere, enough a reason for making the race interesting and open.

 

[jaylew]

*****Valverde, Alaphillipe
****Bardet, Wellens, Kreuziger
***Fuglsang, Nibali, Benoot, Mollema, Pozzo, Martin
**Matthews, Valgren, Gaspa, Teuns, Kwia
*Vanendert, Landa, Uran, Henao, bros Izaguirre

That Bahrain team looks really good. I expect them to be really aggressive along with Lotto Soudal

GASPAROTTO Enrico
IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka
IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Ion
NIBALI Vincenzo
PELLIZOTTI Franco
POZZOVIVO Domenico
VISCONTI Giovanni

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

What makes you to think so?

just watch u23 tour l'avenir results. And that was in one of the strongest fields in years (1990 generation). Plus 5th in FW and last year 4th in LBL. I think it's really obvious.

People vastly underrate Matthews climbing abilities because at Orica he barely tried. They turned him into their main sprinter.
Now at Sunweb his climbing abilities are coming up again.

I don't think that, I think it's obvious and pretty much a fact. But ofcourse saying any rider is better in anything at all than Sagan is an unpopular statement

VMT. I think Matthews has definitely been encouraged to change his approach since joining Sunweb. He was always a sprinter who could climb well. Now I think he is more of a climbing puncheur with a very fast finish.

Distance has never been a problem for him in the past either - he's definitely a big contender at LBL. If he would have been born 30 years earlier, he'd be in with a chance of having a palmares like Sean Kelly imo - a seriously talented rider.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Because Sagan never came within 6 seconds of the victory in FW (although he performed well in several T/A stages with a similar profile). Furthermore, when Sagan was racing full throttle in flanders and roubaix, Matthews was training inPais Vasco.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Because Sagan never came within 6 seconds of the victory in FW (although he performed well in several T/A stages with a similar profile). Furthermore, when Sagan was racing full throttle in flanders and roubaix, Matthews was training inPais Vasco.

Well, he was 8'' behind in '13 in Flèche

But I agree, Sagan has no business in an Ans sprint, not with the frame he is currently carrying.

 

[Zama_Olyas]

Re:

Enrico Gasparotto will win this bike race

I agree with this.

 

[loge1884]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

neither of them are "climbers" as such .... Sagan is decent even on longer climbs, as long as he can ride a steady pace .... Contadoresque push and slow-downs are of course not his thing, too heavy for that ... I don't know how Matthews fares with changes of rhythm on climbs .... but I haven't seen much of those kind of antics in L-B-L, unless a tiny group reaches the final climb ....
so in fact (other than concentrating on the cobbled classics which is a valid point) I don't see why Sagan's chances here shouldn't be at least equal with those of Matthews ....

 

[WheelofGear]

Ala can survive climbs up to 2-2.5 km regardless of gradient.

Matthews can survive climbs up to 1-1.5 km regardless of gradient which is enough to win Liege.

Matthews is much faster than Ala and well-prepared this year. He isn't a dom for Barguil.

Matthews IS the man to beat. Ala/Bala aren't.

 

[WheelofGear]

It's hard to tell who is the best climber: GVA, Sagan or Matthews.

Based on his performance in the Olympics, I'd say GVA..

 

[loge1884]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Distance has never been a problem for him in the past either - he's definitely a big contender at LBL. If he would have been born 30 years earlier, he'd be in with a chance of having a palmares like Sean Kelly imo - a seriously talented rider.[/quote]

I fully agree with "seriously talented rider" .... if he could stop complaining about others not pacing him, when he definitely doesn't seem to like being in the wind, then I could even cheer for him .... Sean Kelly was, especially attitudewise, in a different league, though ....

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

[quote="

I fully agree with "seriously talented rider" .... if he could stop complaining about others not pacing him, when he definitely doesn't seem to like being in the wind, then I could even cheer for him .... Sean Kelly was, especially attitudewise, in a different league, though ....

What I meant was just that he's unfortunate to be in an era of such specialisation. Because he can do almost everything on a bike except the hardest high mountains. He can sprint, climb, TT, has good bike handling and excellent stamina. Very much like Sean Kelly - who, imo, would have won way less if he was riding in the current peloton.

 

[WheelofGear]

It's blasphemy to compare Matthews with Sean Kelly though. Sean Kelly was a real racer.

If Kittel was a puncheur, he would be Matthews. If he wins Liege (I think it's more than likely), the climbers in this Monument have raced like cowards.

 

[GraftPunk]

Dang, someone has a crush.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It's blasphemy to compare Matthews with Sean Kelly though. Sean Kelly was a real racer.

If Kittel was a puncheur, he would be Matthews. If he wins Liege (I think it's more than likely), the climbers in this Monument have raced like cowards.

Matthews is a real racer as well. Last year's TdF showed that. Since he left the horrendous negativity of Orica, he's looked a different rider. Incidentally, Kelly had won relatively little by the time he was the same age as Matthews is now. He'd yet to win a Classic until he was 27. Although perhaps this is not the best forum to look into why that was the case too closely.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Matthews is a totally different rider than he was at orica. So it's unfair to still bash him with the 'Gerrans' like comments. He's been much more active. You don't even have to go back far. He was active at PV, attacking multiple times.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

It's blasphemy to compare Matthews with Sean Kelly though. Sean Kelly was a real racer.

If Kittel was a puncheur, he would be Matthews. If he wins Liege (I think it's more than likely), the climbers in this Monument have raced like cowards.

Not necessarily so. The current course of LBL isn't very favorable to climbers, with shorter but steeper climbs then in the past. Most climbs now are around 1.5 km, while in the past climbs like Haussire, Wanne, Haute Levee, Rosier, Vecquee or Lorce, were 3-5 km long.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

no. there are many examples of Sagan riding away from Matthews uphil (Poggio last year, A Suisse stage in 2016 when Sagan rode away with Albasini). None i can think of the other way around

 

[fauniera]

.
Wellens will attack on the flat after St. Nicolas, i think. And Pozzovivo will win.

 

[Netserk]

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

no.

We'll see in the Tour. Maybe. Matthews certainly has less to carry over the climbs, and in a long and hilly race I think that tips it in his favour.

 

[Brullnux]

If it gets to a reduced sprint of more than 10 riders, then Matthews will take it. There should be a fairly strong cross-tail wind which means attackers should have a better chance (Nibali said this is the reason he wasn't able to recover the ten metres lost to Haig) but it also means gaps are easier to close if one person is dropped. I hope it will be a small group at the finish of five or so riders which fight up the last climb. I think it'll be a sprint.