104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[Krokro]

Still wondering why there is so much Nibali bashing. Can't even understand how he is not a top5 contender. I'll pass on Wheelofgear almost propaganda against him and the other poster saying that Nibali has not shown anything this season. God, guys, are you drunk?
Considering GT or Dumoulin as better contenders than him is pure gold. Thanks.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

The Ardennes will remain boring until Valverde retires. Fresh blood is needed for these races..... edited by mod

Lol!

I’m not so sure. The threat of Matthews winning in Gerrans’ style may be enough for the climbers to light it up. Even though I’m a Matthews fan, I hope that’s the case. I want all hell to break loose.

 

[Gigs_98]

My favorite classic of the calendar. Way better than freaky cobbles or too obvious MS and GdL.

***** Valverde
**** Kwiatkowski, Matthews
*** Valgren, Alaphillipe
* Vanendert, Martin

Completely agree. A fantastic race for the cycling purists - and anyone else who has an attention span of longer than a few minutes.

And extra kudos for only including 7 riders in your stars list, rather than rendering it utterly meaningless by including half the field.

If anything LBL of the last few years has been a race where you only need an attention span of a few minutes while the cobbled classics as well as GdL have exploded way earlier.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Alaphilippe just won Flèche in pretty convincing fashion, so it would be rather atypical for Quick Step go in long breaks (unless it's to sabotage them) instead of controlling the race and keeping as much guys around Ala as possible in case a dangerous break goes clear on/after Redoute or on/after RaF.

Movistar tried controlling the whole race for Valverde in ‘16, and it big them in the arse when Valverde got completely isolated well before the finale. QuickStep won’t do it with one less rider. If they put Jungels or Serry in a break, they don’t need to chase and Ala can just follow wheels until the catch.

For a template of how to win, see Hesjedal’s effort for Dan Martin in 2013. Jungels could do that for Alaf. But also Dumoulin could do the same job for Matthews.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe just won Flèche in pretty convincing fashion, so it would be rather atypical for Quick Step go in long breaks (unless it's to sabotage them) instead of controlling the race and keeping as much guys around Ala as possible in case a dangerous break goes clear on/after Redoute or on/after RaF.

Movistar tried controlling the whole race for Valverde in ‘16, and it big them in the **** when Valverde got completely isolated well before the finale. QuickStep won’t do it with one less rider. If they put Jungels or Serry in a break, they don’t need to chase and Ala can just follow wheels until the catch.

For a template of how to win, see Hesjedal’s effort for Dan Martin in 2013. Jungels could do that for Alaf. But also Dumoulin could do the same job for Matthews.

Or Andy and Frank Schleck’s effort for Gilbert in 2011

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe just won Flèche in pretty convincing fashion, so it would be rather atypical for Quick Step go in long breaks (unless it's to sabotage them) instead of controlling the race and keeping as much guys around Ala as possible in case a dangerous break goes clear on/after Redoute or on/after RaF.

Movistar tried controlling the whole race for Valverde in ‘16, and it big them in the **** when Valverde got completely isolated well before the finale. QuickStep won’t do it with one less rider. If they put Jungels or Serry in a break, they don’t need to chase and Ala can just follow wheels until the catch.

For a template of how to win, see Hesjedal’s effort for Dan Martin in 2013. Jungels could do that for Alaf. But also Dumoulin could do the same job for Matthews.

There's a certain responsability that comes with having (one of) the top favourite(s) in your ranks. Other teams will naturally look at you to do the vast majority of the work, rather than it being a free choice to just join the break and get a nice ride home.

If it was, many more teams would have applied that approach in the past.

Edit: besides, Movistar is there to share the work with.

 

[KyoGrey]

Shame that Kwiatkowski isn't on form this year.

Adding a top 3rd actor to the Valverde-Alaphilippe duel would be ideal.

I just hope that a nobody doesn't win in a side attack because a peloton of 50 arrives to Ans...

 

[Gigs_98]

On another note, is it possible that the section before the Rosier is a lot easier this year?

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Exited to see what the Fuglsang/Valgren combo can do this time around

With Kangert and Fraile both in top shape as well, it could get interesting towards the end, if they are smart enough to let the "big classics teams", do all the early work

Though, seems we have several powerful duos(+) this year:

Bahrain with Nibali and the brothers
Sunweb with Dumoulin and Matthews
EF with Uran and Craddock
QS with Alaphilippe and Jungels (and Gilbert)
Movistar with Valverde and Landa (and Soler)
Lotto Soudal with Benoot and Wellens (and Vanendert)
Mitchelton with Kreuziger and Impey
AG2R with Bardet and Vuillermoz
Sky with Kwiatkowski and Thomas (and Henao)
UAE with Martin and Costa

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Exited to see what the Fuglsang/Valgren combo can do this time around

With Kangert and Fraile both in top shape as well, it could get interesting towards the end, if they are smart enough to let the "big classics teams", do all the early work

Though, seems we have several powerful duos(+) this year:

Bahrain with Nibali and the brothers
Sunweb with Dumoulin and Matthews
EF with Uran and Craddock
QS with Alaphilippe and Jungels (and Gilbert)
Movistar with Valverde and Landa (and Soler)
Lotto Soudal with Benoot and Wellens (and Vanendert)
Mitchelton with Kreuziger and Impey
AG2R with Bardet and Vuillermoz
Sky with Kwiatkowski and Thomas (and Henao)
UAE with Martin and Costa

Soler is not there for Movistar. He hasn't been at the Ardennes at all this year. Actually if he was it would have helped Valverde at Fleche Wallone. Here's Movistar's lineup: Valverde, Landa, Amador, Rojas, Erviti, Anacona, Betancur. I'd rather have had Soler than either Betancur or Anacona.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Exited to see what the Fuglsang/Valgren combo can do this time around

With Kangert and Fraile both in top shape as well, it could get interesting towards the end, if they are smart enough to let the "big classics teams", do all the early work

Though, seems we have several powerful duos(+) this year:

Bahrain with Nibali and the brothers
Sunweb with Dumoulin and Matthews
EF with Uran and Craddock
QS with Alaphilippe and Jungels (and Gilbert)
Movistar with Valverde and Landa (and Soler)
Lotto Soudal with Benoot and Wellens (and Vanendert)
Mitchelton with Kreuziger and Impey
AG2R with Bardet and Vuillermoz
Sky with Kwiatkowski and Thomas (and Henao)
UAE with Martin and Costa

Soler is not there for Movistar. He hasn't been at the Ardennes at all this year. Actually if he was it would have helped Valverde at Fleche Wallone. Here's Movistar's lineup: Valverde, Landa, Amador, Rojas, Erviti, Anacona, Betancur. I'd rather have had Soler than either Betancur or Anacona.

Ah, he is on the race page start list..... but then replace his name with Amador

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Exited to see what the Fuglsang/Valgren combo can do this time around

With Kangert and Fraile both in top shape as well, it could get interesting towards the end, if they are smart enough to let the "big classics teams", do all the early work

Though, seems we have several powerful duos(+) this year:

Bahrain with Nibali and the brothers
Sunweb with Dumoulin and Matthews
EF with Uran and Craddock
QS with Alaphilippe and Jungels (and Gilbert)
Movistar with Valverde and Landa (and Soler)
Lotto Soudal with Benoot and Wellens (and Vanendert)
Mitchelton with Kreuziger and Impey
AG2R with Bardet and Vuillermoz
Sky with Kwiatkowski and Thomas (and Henao)
UAE with Martin and Costa

Soler is not there for Movistar. He hasn't been at the Ardennes at all this year. Actually if he was it would have helped Valverde at Fleche Wallone. Here's Movistar's lineup: Valverde, Landa, Amador, Rojas, Erviti, Anacona, Betancur. I'd rather have had Soler than either Betancur or Anacona.

Ah, he is on the race page start list..... but then replace his name with Amador

Ok. I pulled the list from Movistar's website. They have a habit of release official line-ups late so many places don't have their correct line-up. Although as I said I'd rather Soler was there. I think he's podium at Catalonia last year when he was standing there with Contador and Valverde gave him a lot of confidence that he's really started to show this year. He still has a lot to learn, but he's really starting to show his potential.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Shame that Kwiatkowski isn't on form this year.

Adding a top 3rd actor to the Valverde-Alaphilippe duel would be ideal.

I just hope that a nobody doesn't win in a side attack because a peloton of 50 arrives to Ans...

Nibbes will be the third actor.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

The Ardennes will remain boring until Valverde retires. Fresh blood is needed for these races, though not in the way Valverde intends

AGR and FW have been the best two races of the season so far.

You didn’t watch any of the cobbled classics?

 

[The Hegelian]

Not satisfied with any star rankings yet, so will give it a go:

*****Valverde
****Alaphilippe, Matthews
***Kreuziger, Gasparotto, Valgren
**Fuglsang, Vanendert, Wellens, Izagirre (both)
*Too many to list

 

[rghysens]

On another note, is it possible that the section before the Rosier is a lot easier this year?

Yes. Since last year the Stockeu has disappeared due to roadworks. Its remplacement, the Ferme Libert, may be a bit more difficult, but the succession of climbs comes much slower.

 

[rick james]

G Thomas will crash in this bike race

 

[Krokro]

Re:

Not satisfied with any star rankings yet, so will give it a go:

*****Valverde
****Alaphilippe, Matthews
***Kreuziger, Gasparotto, Valgren
**Fuglsang, Vanendert, Wellens, Izagirre (both)
*Too many to list

You forgot Nibali in that list.

 

[Laplaz]

Nibali said in an interview that Liege is harder this year with the two new cotes of Mont-Le Soie and de Pont, because there you spend energies you normally need in the final crucial part, so he expects an open race. He also said guys like Fuglsang and Kreuziger will try something from quite far out, so he will probably join them.

 

[Red Rick]

Let's keep the clinic jokes out of this shall we?

 

[Velolover2]

***** Alaphilippe, Valverde, Matthews
**** Kwiatkowski, Wellens
*** Fuglsang, Teuns, Bardet, Nibali
** Benoot, Valgren, Gasparotto, Kreuziger
** Dumoulin, Vanendert, Konrad, Woods, Jungels, Henao, Thomas, Mollema, Zakarin, Dan Martin

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Still wondering why there is so much Nibali bashing. Can't even understand how he is not a top5 contender. I'll pass on Wheelofgear almost propaganda against him and the other poster saying that Nibali has not shown anything this season. God, guys, are you drunk?
Considering GT or Dumoulin as better contenders than him is pure gold. Thanks.

Dumoulin would have an outside chance if he tried but he hasn't races in a month and this will be more of a training ride for the Giro while working for Matthews. He's shown some good results in one day races before. Thomas has never done Liege, and even in Ronde which he's done six times, sometimes as favourite, he's never done better than eighth. Considering Nibali, at his first attempt with no prep, came in the second big group on the road, it isn't a massive Thomas endorsement. I think he might struggle with the endurance. And anyway, he's been trying to change to GC races. He isn't a threat at all imo. Nibali isn't as strong as the tail end of last season but is not terrible. The Fleche break stayed out a very long time and the group behind worked very hard to bring it back. Had Nibali not made a mistake on the descent and broken up the group, Schachmann or Haig might have had a chance. Amstel was worse, and I'm not at all convinced he can win, but he has more of a chance than Thomas.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I was just watching Andy Schleck's attack in 2009 and I'm once again baffled how the character of this race could change so fast. Yeah Andy also didn't attack from that far away but the race was already absolutely on at this point. I just hope the race will finally explode on La Redoute again. It's generally sad that the most iconic climb of a race has become completely indifferent but this race would simply be so much better to watch if a team like Bahrein absolutely puts the hammer down there.

Andy <3

Yeah it is, La Redoute is an iconic and honestly legendary climb that just has been completely misused (not used at all) since 2013 or so. Things of absolutely no significance. But I think that will change this year, Kreuziger and Fuglsang are on very good shape and will try to go long, as will Nibali. Probably wait for Faucons tho, but I expect that the race is on from a lot further out.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Exited to see what the Fuglsang/Valgren combo can do this time around

With Kangert and Fraile both in top shape as well, it could get interesting towards the end, if they are smart enough to let the "big classics teams", do all the early work

Though, seems we have several powerful duos(+) this year:

Bahrain with Nibali and the brothers
Sunweb with Dumoulin and Matthews
EF with Uran and Craddock
QS with Alaphilippe and Jungels (and Gilbert)
Movistar with Valverde and Landa (and Soler)
Lotto Soudal with Benoot and Wellens (and Vanendert)
Mitchelton with Kreuziger and Impey
AG2R with Bardet and Vuillermoz
Sky with Kwiatkowski and Thomas (and Henao)
UAE with Martin and Costa

Soler is not there for Movistar. He hasn't been at the Ardennes at all this year. Actually if he was it would have helped Valverde at Fleche Wallone. Here's Movistar's lineup: Valverde, Landa, Amador, Rojas, Erviti, Anacona, Betancur. I'd rather have had Soler than either Betancur or Anacona.

I wouldn't. Anacona is a real worker, something that Soler isn't, and Betancur although invisible in the Fleche is still better one day rider than Soler, plus he appeared to be the stronger of the two at GP Indurain.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I would also take Soler over Anacona. Considering how he has been climbing and all, this is by far the Ardennes classic that suits him the most and contrary to what he has done in classics so far, I think he has a great motor and endurance for exactly this race. He showed some of that stuff in Roubaix. But I dno, its better to get the optimal prep going for Romandie where he will be sole leader. I just hope Betancur will show something now, he has been pretty disappointing in the Ardennes this year.