104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[Robert5091]

Re:

No he got that nickname because he "bites the legs off his opponents" .

That was Norman Hunter ...

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Nobody knows why Nibs got the nickname, incl. himself - so your guess is as good as mine.... but not fact

Incidentally, my guess is simple: It's his grimace when riding hard.

Because it's said there are lot of (and big) sharks in Strait of Messina. And Nibali is from Messina.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

The weather forecast predicts thunderstorms over Wallonia tomorrow, could be a game changer if they aren't mistaken.

Only post so far about this. Its quite likely the thunderstorms arrive tomorrow afternoon around liege.
These will be heavy thunderstorms after 5 days of exceptional warm weather during this period.

It could be apocalyptic with thunder and wind gusts up to 70km/h. Ofcourse its not certain it will happen at what time. Usually these kind of showers dont last very long, but are extreme. If the happen in the final 100km it could be a huge influence on the outcome.

Don't know the local weather, but are you saying it will be a big wall of thunderstorm sweeping the area?

Something like: (images are just google image examples, nothing to do with Wallonia)

or

That second kind is usually the most brutal/dangerous. And most difficult to predict.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

I would also take Soler over Anacona. Considering how he has been climbing and all, this is by far the Ardennes classic that suits him the most and contrary to what he has done in classics so far, I think he has a great motor and endurance for exactly this race. He showed some of that stuff in Roubaix. But I dno, its better to get the optimal prep going for Romandie where he will be sole leader. I just hope Betancur will show something now, he has been pretty disappointing in the Ardennes this year.

Maybe it wasn't noticed but Anacona did a lot of work before Landa took over. I would replace Betancur which is showing signs of being tired.

Agreed Anacona has looked pretty good in my opinion.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

You make some good arguments that I agree with. I am just wondering what changed from 2013 onwards to limit attacks. Here’s how the race was won from 2008-2012:
2008- Sprint from group of 3
2009- Solo with 1 minute+ margin of victory
2010- Solo, with a 1 minute plus gap to 3rd
2011- Gilbert outsprints the Schlecks after they formed the winning group 20+km out.
2012- Iglinsky drops Nibali who gained an early advantage from far out and then bonked.

For comparison’s sake, there has only been one solo victory since 2013 and in each year sinxe then the final group has been formed on the last climb. Something has changed I’m just not sure what that “something” is.

I think there simply weren't any riders who were willing to attack from far out in the last 5 editions. Let's go through those winning moves year by year.
2008: Frank Schleck has retired, Rebellin now rather belongs into an elderly home than a LBL podium, which means only Valverde is left, the guy who is the favorite if everything stays together as long as possible
2009: Andy Schleck has retired
2010: Vino has retired
2011: as I've already written, both Schlecks have retired and Gilbert has been a shadow of his former self after 2011 until last year when he got injured a week before LBL
2012: Iginsky has retired, and Nibali hasn't been in such a good shape for LBL again.

The problem is that all the guys who used to attack from far out are all either gone or haven't returned for the last few years and I know many people don't want to here this anymore, but way to many riders in the current generation just don't have guts.

Ofc every year there are riders attacking before the final climb but the problem is that the profile of this race on it's own isn't hard enough to create carnage so those early attacks have to be done by proper riders and there have to be more than 2 or 3. One attack by Wellens over the Roche aux Faucons like last year is not gonna derail the teams trying to control everything.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

You make some good arguments that I agree with. I am just wondering what changed from 2013 onwards to limit attacks. Here’s how the race was won from 2008-2012:
2008- Sprint from group of 3
2009- Solo with 1 minute+ margin of victory
2010- Solo, with a 1 minute plus gap to 3rd
2011- Gilbert outsprints the Schlecks after they formed the winning group 20+km out.
2012- Iglinsky drops Nibali who gained an early advantage from far out and then bonked.

For comparison’s sake, there has only been one solo victory since 2013 and in each year sinxe then the final group has been formed on the last climb. Something has changed I’m just not sure what that “something” is.

What changed was that no top hilly classic rider without sprint and a strong team went balls deep on the RaF. CSC/Saxo/Trek always rode the peloton to shatters and attacked early on the RaF. Then in 2012 Nibali did the same, but he got away just over the top when they gave him 20m for free and he pulled away on the false flat after the Roche.

Who were the favorites after 2013? Noone without sprint, noone aggressive.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The weather forecast predicts thunderstorms over Wallonia tomorrow, could be a game changer if they aren't mistaken.

Only post so far about this. Its quite likely the thunderstorms arrive tomorrow afternoon around liege.
These will be heavy thunderstorms after 5 days of exceptional warm weather during this period.

It could be apocalyptic with thunder and wind gusts up to 70km/h. Ofcourse its not certain it will happen at what time. Usually these kind of showers dont last very long, but are extreme. If the happen in the final 100km it could be a huge influence on the outcome.

Don't know the local weather, but are you saying it will be a big wall of thunderstorm sweeping the area?

It will probably be dry and sunny, 21°C. A thunderstorm is possible, but it might just be in the evening.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Nobody knows why Nibs got the nickname, incl. himself - so your guess is as good as mine.... but not fact

Incidentally, my guess is simple: It's his grimace when riding hard.

Because it's said there are lot of (and big) sharks in Strait of Messina. And Nibali is from Messina.

What ??

Nibali's profile ...well mostly his nose especially when he has a helmet on looks like the fin of a shark ...is everyone blind ??

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

You make some good arguments that I agree with. I am just wondering what changed from 2013 onwards to limit attacks. Here’s how the race was won from 2008-2012:
2008- Sprint from group of 3
2009- Solo with 1 minute+ margin of victory
2010- Solo, with a 1 minute plus gap to 3rd
2011- Gilbert outsprints the Schlecks after they formed the winning group 20+km out.
2012- Iglinsky drops Nibali who gained an early advantage from far out and then bonked.

For comparison’s sake, there has only been one solo victory since 2013 and in each year sinxe then the final group has been formed on the last climb. Something has changed I’m just not sure what that “something” is.

What changed was that no top hilly classic rider without sprint and a strong team went balls deep on the RaF. CSC/Saxo/Trek always rode the peloton to shatters and attacked early on the RaF. Then in 2012 Nibali did the same, but he got away just over the top when they gave him 20m for free and he pulled away on the false flat after the Roche.

Who were the favorites after 2013? Noone without sprint, noone aggressive.

I agree. To split the race in pieces you need a hard race before RaF, and you need to attack right from the bottom. Then at the top strong rider , or a small group could go, and there will hardly be any domestiques to chase.

I think it will happen this year. Lots of teams will want this, and those who doesn't want it (Movistar, QS and maybe Sunweb), will not be able to control things. They will be forced to put riders in the breaks also, so I'm expecting the unexpected, Movistar on the offensive on RaF with Landa forcing and Valverde on his wheel.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

I can’t see any factor there that doesn’t also apply to Lombardia, but somehow Lombardia has managed to avoid having a 40 rider group finish in a couple of generations.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

I can’t see any factor there that doesn’t also apply to Lombardia, but somehow Lombardia has managed to avoid having a 40 rider group finish in a couple of generations.

Lombardia has the randomizing effect of late season form. No squads of reasonably fresh domestiques. Leaders who all know that where they stand against their rivals is unpredictable. Outsiders whose abilities would be known at LBL, but aren’t at Lombardia going up the road.

Zaugg could never win Liege.

 

[Koronin]

2015 was a group of about 10 riders. That's not exactly a large group of riders.

 

[silvergrenade]

Any one know how the weather will be today? Thanks.

 

[King Boonen]

I would love to see Warren Barguil take this, not going to happen though. Club run with lunch today so hoping I get back in time for the exciting bits.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

Any one know how the weather will be today? Thanks.

If meteo-france is right there could be light rain in Liege, BBC says dry but it’s often wrong for the mainland.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

Can someone tells the story behind Nibali's Shark & Fuglsang's Birdsong? Thanks.

Sorry, here it belongs: because it's said there are lot of (and big) sharks in Strait of Messina, it's kinda mythical thing. And Nibali is from Messina.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

2015 was a group of about 10 riders. That's not exactly a large group of riders.

I think its large for a race like this.
Also all the action was on the last climb...

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

I can’t see any factor there that doesn’t also apply to Lombardia, but somehow Lombardia has managed to avoid having a 40 rider group finish in a couple of generations.

Lombardia has the randomizing effect of late season form. No squads of reasonably fresh domestiques. Leaders who all know that where they stand against their rivals is unpredictable. Outsiders whose abilities would be known at LBL, but aren’t at Lombardia going up the road.

Zaugg could never win Liege.

Generally, Lombardia often has Muro di Sormano in a position where it opens the finale. That climb is ridiculous enough to drop all the dead weight off the peloton. Then there's the case with the recent courses that the ideal place to attack for a climber is on the Civiglio in '15/'17 or a lot further out in the case of '16.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

2015 was a group of about 10 riders. That's not exactly a large group of riders.

Also all the action was on the last climb...

That certainly is not true. Taky a look at it.

 

[rick james]

Re:

I would love to see Warren Barguil take this, not going to happen though. Club run with lunch today so hoping I get back in time for the exciting bits.

Enjoy, I hope you miss the rain clouds

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

I can’t see any factor there that doesn’t also apply to Lombardia, but somehow Lombardia has managed to avoid having a 40 rider group finish in a couple of generations.

The climbs are so long in Lombardia that it becomes a multiple mountain stage. It's easier to get rid off the domestiques who have to work hard for a longer period of time.

In Amstel, there are more climbs and places to attack. It's a constant cat-and-mouse game which kills the doms.

In L-B-L the climbs are too long to play cat and house but too short to be actual mountains. Doms can recover on the descent and flat. You'll except it to be the best of both worlds, but it isn't. :lol:

 

[rune1107]

'Cycling Australia' cycling knowledge on point on this one!

https://twitter.com/CyclingAus/status/987939054720372736

 

[Laplaz]

And they are off! Hopefully a great day!

 

[Gigs_98]

'Cycling Australia' cycling knowledge on point on this one!

https://twitter.com/CyclingAus/status/987939054720372736

Ouch

 

[DNP-Old]

We're all in support of Nibali today.