104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Not satisfied with any star rankings yet, so will give it a go:

*****Valverde
****Alaphilippe, Matthews
***Kreuziger, Gasparotto, Valgren
**Fuglsang, Vanendert, Wellens, Izagirre (both)
*Too many to list

You forgot Nibali in that list.

I have three Bahrain-Merida in there. They look super strong, and sure, Nibbles can maybe do something, but Gasparotto has much better form than Nibali.

What I didn't forget was Terpstra blowing Nibali off his wheel in Flanders - not on a berg, but on a false flat. And then FW somehow or other got dropped by Haig. So either he's foxing (improbable) or his form is pretty suspect for this race.

 

[Rollthedice]

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

 

[ColonelKidneyBeans]

The weather forecast predicts thunderstorms over Wallonia tomorrow, could be a game changer if they aren't mistaken.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Not satisfied with any star rankings yet, so will give it a go:

*****Valverde
****Alaphilippe, Matthews
***Kreuziger, Gasparotto, Valgren
**Fuglsang, Vanendert, Wellens, Izagirre (both)
*Too many to list

You forgot Nibali in that list.

I have three Bahrain-Merida in there. They look super strong, and sure, Nibbles can maybe do something, but Gasparotto has much better form than Nibali.

What I didn't forget was Terpstra blowing Nibali off his wheel in Flanders - not on a berg, but on a false flat. And then FW somehow or other got dropped by Haig. So either he's foxing (improbable) or his form is pretty suspect for this race.

Terpstra was in incredible form, and it was Ronde, just after he attacked. Haig apparently dropped him on a descent. Gaspa was pretty bad in Fleche, and Gorka doesn't seem to be absolutely at his best, so I think Nibali definitely has more of a chance than him. Maybe not Ion or Gaspa, though.

 

[Frankschleck]

Does anybody think that Konrad or Jay McCarthy has a chance ?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Does anybody think that Konrad or Jay McCarthy has a chance ?

Anyone? I don't know

Me? No

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

 

[RedheadDane]

Thought he was "Kwiato".

 

[Laplaz]

Forgot completely about Calmejane. Could easily do a Top 10.

 

[can3478]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

Can someone tells the story behind Nibali's Shark & Fuglsang's Birdsong? Thanks.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

Can someone tells the story behind Nibali's Shark & Fuglsang's Birdsong? Thanks.

Don't know why nibali is called the shark, he simply already has that nickname so long that people like me can't remember the origins. Fuglsang is more simple since as far as I know Fuglsang is simply the danish word for birdsong.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

Can someone tells the story behind Nibali's Shark & Fuglsang's Birdsong? Thanks.

Fuglsang translated to english from danish would translate to Birdsong, while nibalis nickname the Shark i think is given for his appetite of chasing wins and winning but has been with him a long time, so not sure.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Does anybody think that Konrad or Jay McCarthy has a chance ?

Konrad has a great chance of a top 10. Jay McCarthy, nay.

Konrad/Buchmann is the new Zubeldia duo. We rarely see them but they always top 10 in most one-week races, harder one-day races and (soon to come) GTs.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

The stars are out tonight, let's see:

***** Bala
**** Ala
*** The Shark, Bling
** Birdsong, Kreuz, Bardet, Kiwi
* about a dozen others

"Kiwi"?

Kwiatkowski....

Unless he meant the Kiwi Dion Smith.

 

[can3478]

Thanks Gigs_98 & Frankschleck for the answers.

 

[Kwibus]

The weather forecast predicts thunderstorms over Wallonia tomorrow, could be a game changer if they aren't mistaken.

Only post so far about this. Its quite likely the thunderstorms arrive tomorrow afternoon around liege.
These will be heavy thunderstorms after 5 days of exceptional warm weather during this period.

It could be apocalyptic with thunder and wind gusts up to 70km/h. Ofcourse its not certain it will happen at what time. Usually these kind of showers dont last very long, but are extreme. If the happen in the final 100km it could be a huge influence on the outcome.

 

[Lo squalo di messina]

No he got that nickname because he "bites the legs off his opponents" .

 

[Durden93]

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Nobody knows why Nibs got the nickname, incl. himself - so your guess is as good as mine.... but not fact

Incidentally, my guess is simple: It's his grimace when riding hard.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Nobody knows why Nibs got the nickname, incl. himself - so your guess is as good as mine.... but not fact

Incidentally, my guess is simple: It's his grimace when riding hard.

I think it his bike positioning when he's going deep. Lo Squalo is freaking great.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I would also take Soler over Anacona. Considering how he has been climbing and all, this is by far the Ardennes classic that suits him the most and contrary to what he has done in classics so far, I think he has a great motor and endurance for exactly this race. He showed some of that stuff in Roubaix. But I dno, its better to get the optimal prep going for Romandie where he will be sole leader. I just hope Betancur will show something now, he has been pretty disappointing in the Ardennes this year.

Maybe it wasn't noticed but Anacona did a lot of work before Landa took over. I would replace Betancur which is showing signs of being tired.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for shitty rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

You make some good arguments that I agree with. I am just wondering what changed from 2013 onwards to limit attacks. Here’s how the race was won from 2008-2012:
2008- Sprint from group of 3
2009- Solo with 1 minute+ margin of victory
2010- Solo, with a 1 minute plus gap to 3rd
2011- Gilbert outsprints the Schlecks after they formed the winning group 20+km out.
2012- Iglinsky drops Nibali who gained an early advantage from far out and then bonked.

For comparison’s sake, there has only been one solo victory since 2013 and in each year sinxe then the final group has been formed on the last climb. Something has changed I’m just not sure what that “something” is.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

So I’ve found Liege to be very easily controlled since 2013. What’s the reason for this? Can this route be broken up significantly if riders such as Nibali, Bardet, etc attack or will we have to wait for a route change in 2019 to see some fireworks?

- No narrow roads
- Very little fighting for positioning
- Climbs are long enough that they're not all ridden close to the max
- Climbs are long enough that you basically generally have one bullet in your gun
- There's a huge cross contamination from climbers to punchers, the field is a lot deeper
- Climbers make for ****** rouleurs
- If top riders don't go full throttle on a climb, domestiques don't get dropped. Liege has way less survival of the - fittest going on
- The biggest favourite usually also has the luxury of being able to wait for the last km
- Anticipation doesn't pay off. Reverse implied odds are a lot bigger in Liege than in De Ronde or in Paris-Roubaix

You make some good arguments that I agree with. I am just wondering what changed from 2013 onwards to limit attacks. Here’s how the race was won from 2008-2012:
2008- Sprint from group of 3
2009- Solo with 1 minute+ margin of victory
2010- Solo, with a 1 minute plus gap to 3rd
2011- Gilbert outsprints the Schlecks after they formed the winning group 20+km out.
2012- Iglinsky drops Nibali who gained an early advantage from far out and then bonked.

For comparison’s sake, there has only been one solo victory since 2013 and in each year sinxe then the final group has been formed on the last climb. Something has changed I’m just not sure what that “something” is.

2016 had that small cobbled climb they added that created a small selection of riders. They then took it out for 2017. Thus 2015 and 2017 Valverde won on almost identical courses.