104TH LIÈGE-BASTOGNE-LIÈGE 1.UWT April 22nd, 2018

[Gigs_98]

I don't think Matthews is the man to beat, but I agree with the ones who think he has a chance. Anyway, I think this will be a hard edition and the race will be a lot more selective than in previous years. It has simply been a trend in the Ardennes classics recently and I think many outsiders might finally realize again that if they don't play Valverde's game, they have a chance. The deciding factor could be whether Quickstep will try to control things for Alaphilippe or spread their riders in breaks again. I think they should do the latter as it has worked very well for them this year and even more importantly because I still think that if Valverde and Alaphilippe come to Ans together, Valverde is the outstanding favorite. I don't think Ala can drop Bala on those shallow gradients and I'm convinced he can't outsprint him.

 

[Laplaz]

The rain will eliminate Bala & co.
So Fuglsang vs. Nibali vs. Kreuziger ftw!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

if Matthews is such a favorite here, I wonder why Peter Sagan is not racing this .....

Matthews is a better climber.

no. there are many examples of Sagan riding away from Matthews uphil (Poggio last year, A Suisse stage in 2016 when Sagan rode away with Albasini). None i can think of the other way around

Poggio = explosivity. Almost nothing to do with climbing. I'm talking climbing, or serious hills longer than 1km. Get out with that false flat thing :lol:

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Matthews is a totally different rider than he was at orica. So it's unfair to still bash him with the 'Gerrans' like comments. He's been much more active. You don't even have to go back far. He was active at PV, attacking multiple times.

True. He's dispelled that comparison multiple times the last couple of seasons. That said, Gerrans was more attacking in his early years than in the latter.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Wellens please.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think Matthews is the man to beat, but I agree with the ones who think he has a chance. Anyway, I think this will be a hard edition and the race will be a lot more selective than in previous years. It has simply been a trend in the Ardennes classics recently and I think many outsiders might finally realize again that if they don't play Valverde's game, they have a chance. The deciding factor could be whether Quickstep will try to control things for Alaphilippe or spread their riders in breaks again. I think they should do the latter as it has worked very well for them this year and even more importantly because I still think that if Valverde and Alaphilippe come to Ans together, Valverde is the outstanding favorite. I don't think Ala can drop Bala on those shallow gradients and I'm convinced he can't outsprint him.

Quick Step won't send riders in a break. They have no riders who can win from a break.

 

[Leinster]

I don't think Matthews is the man to beat, but I agree with the ones who think he has a chance. Anyway, I think this will be a hard edition and the race will be a lot more selective than in previous years. It has simply been a trend in the Ardennes classics recently and I think many outsiders might finally realize again that if they don't play Valverde's game, they have a chance. The deciding factor could be whether Quickstep will try to control things for Alaphilippe or spread their riders in breaks again. I think they should do the latter as it has worked very well for them this year and even more importantly because I still think that if Valverde and Alaphilippe come to Ans together, Valverde is the outstanding favorite. I don't think Ala can drop Bala on those shallow gradients and I'm convinced he can't outsprint him.

Quick Step won't send riders in a break. They have no riders who can win from a break.

Any of Serry, Jungels or Schachman could win from a break if the chase drops the ball. And then there’s the guy who won Flanders last year with a 50km solo. Quick Step will send riders in the breaks.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think Matthews is the man to beat, but I agree with the ones who think he has a chance. Anyway, I think this will be a hard edition and the race will be a lot more selective than in previous years. It has simply been a trend in the Ardennes classics recently and I think many outsiders might finally realize again that if they don't play Valverde's game, they have a chance. The deciding factor could be whether Quickstep will try to control things for Alaphilippe or spread their riders in breaks again. I think they should do the latter as it has worked very well for them this year and even more importantly because I still think that if Valverde and Alaphilippe come to Ans together, Valverde is the outstanding favorite. I don't think Ala can drop Bala on those shallow gradients and I'm convinced he can't outsprint him.

Quick Step won't send riders in a break. They have no riders who can win from a break.

Any of Serry, Jungels or Schachman could win from a break if the chase drops the ball. And then there’s the guy who won Flanders last year with a 50km solo. Quick Step will send riders in the breaks.

Where? I don't see any of those guys getting over the Roche, and the pace is never dropped before the Roche. Gilbert hasn't gotten over the Saint Nicolas in years.

 

[Forever The Best]

I don't think Matthews is the man to beat, but I agree with the ones who think he has a chance. Anyway, I think this will be a hard edition and the race will be a lot more selective than in previous years. It has simply been a trend in the Ardennes classics recently and I think many outsiders might finally realize again that if they don't play Valverde's game, they have a chance. The deciding factor could be whether Quickstep will try to control things for Alaphilippe or spread their riders in breaks again. I think they should do the latter as it has worked very well for them this year and even more importantly because I still think that if Valverde and Alaphilippe come to Ans together, Valverde is the outstanding favorite. I don't think Ala can drop Bala on those shallow gradients and I'm convinced he can't outsprint him.

Quick Step won't send riders in a break. They have no riders who can win from a break.

Any of Serry, Jungels or Schachman could win from a break if the chase drops the ball. And then there’s the guy who won Flanders last year with a 50km solo. Quick Step will send riders in the breaks.

Where? I don't see any of those guys getting over the Roche, and the pace is never dropped before the Roche. Gilbert hasn't gotten over the Saint Nicolas in years.

He was injured in '15 and didn't race the last 2 years. But he isn't on form for hilly classics this year and way weaker than last year. He'll probably be a domestique or try an attack which will fail.

 

[RedheadDane]

Gilbert was also injured last year. That little thing about messing up his kidney during Amstel...

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

The rain will eliminate Bala & co.
So Fuglsang vs. Nibali vs. Kreuziger ftw!

Rain? There's a small chance of a thunder shower, but it'll be nice most of the day and definitely warm.

 

[Flamin]

Alaphilippe just won Flèche in pretty convincing fashion, so it would be rather atypical for Quick Step go in long breaks (unless it's to sabotage them) instead of controlling the race and keeping as much guys around Ala as possible in case a dangerous break goes clear on/after Redoute or on/after RaF.

 

[Gigs_98]

I was just watching Andy Schleck's attack in 2009 and I'm once again baffled how the character of this race could change so fast. Yeah Andy also didn't attack from that far away but the race was already absolutely on at this point. I just hope the race will finally explode on La Redoute again. It's generally sad that the most iconic climb of a race has become completely indifferent but this race would simply be so much better to watch if a team like Bahrein absolutely puts the hammer down there.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

I wonder how many of you dislike the Ans finish route, and wish it to be changed? Maybe they should try something different next year and see how it goes. The struggles up the Ans ramp are iconic LBL to me but this race could do with something more grand.

***** Valverde, Alaphillipe
**** Nibali, Matthews
*** Wellens, Kwiat, Fuglasng
** Martin, Kreuziger, Vandenert
* Landa, Bardet, Pozzovivo, Dumoulin

I give Valverde a slight edge due to his consistency, and solid veteran tactical ability... he knows what to do during those vital seconds in the last few km where LBL can be won or lost on a split second decision.

Will the FW dominance of Ala and Valverde cause other teams to be more aggressive in LBL, attacking early, avoiding the group sprint ending? Riders like Domoulin , Landa, Gilbert... all teammates of those big three sprint favorites of Matthews / Ala / Bala ... will they be used to chase down attacks or will they join the attacks?

Nice OP rollthedice

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I wonder how many of you dislike the Ans finish route, and wish it to be changed? Maybe they should try something different next year and see how it goes. The struggles up the Ans ramp are iconic LBL to me but this race could do with something more grand.

***** Valverde, Alaphillipe
**** Nibali, Matthews
*** Wellens, Kwiat, Fuglasng
** Martin, Kreuziger, Vandenert
* Landa, Bardet, Pozzovivo, Dumoulin

I give Valverde a slight edge due to his consistency, and solid veteran tactical ability... he knows what to do during those vital seconds in the last few km where LBL can be won or lost on a split second decision.

Nice OP rollthedice

I'll decide whether I want a new finish after Sunday. I have high hopes that this edition will be better than recent ones but if it isn't I declare the current route as done and want a new one. Coincidently I was just experimenting with a few climbs around Liege trying to find a good route (actually it's not that big of a coincidence. I find myself doing that every year on the days before La Doyenne)

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

...Fuglasng...

Did you decide to spell it like most non-Danes pronounce it?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Last Fleche was fantastic, and has a Great Value Added: what we should do to stop Valverde in such races as FW or LBL.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I wonder how many of you dislike the Ans finish route, and wish it to be changed? Maybe they should try something different next year and see how it goes. The struggles up the Ans ramp are iconic LBL to me but this race could do with something more grand.

***** Valverde, Alaphillipe
**** Nibali, Matthews
*** Wellens, Kwiat, Fuglasng
** Martin, Kreuziger, Vandenert
* Landa, Bardet, Pozzovivo, Dumoulin

I give Valverde a slight edge due to his consistency, and solid veteran tactical ability... he knows what to do during those vital seconds in the last few km where LBL can be won or lost on a split second decision.

Nice OP rollthedice

I'll decide whether I want a new finish after Sunday. I have high hopes that this edition will be better than recent ones but if it isn't I declare the current route as done and want a new one. Coincidently I was just experimenting with a few climbs around Liege trying to find a good route (actually it's not that big of a coincidence. I find myself doing that every year on the days before La Doyenne)

It is already decided, it will finish in Liege next year. It's not clear yet how it will look like.

 

[drc]

My favorite classic of the calendar. Way better than freaky cobbles or too obvious MS and GdL.

***** Valverde
**** Kwiatkowski, Matthews
*** Valgren, Alaphillipe
* Vanendert, Martin

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

Alaphilippe just won Flèche in pretty convincing fashion, so it would be rather atypical for Quick Step go in long breaks (unless it's to sabotage them) instead of controlling the race and keeping as much guys around Ala as possible in case a dangerous break goes clear on/after Redoute or on/after RaF.

My thoughts too. Even though he wouldn't be favourite to beat Valverde, going all in for Ala seems their best tactic by some way. He's their future in this race regardless and you've got to support him. Not so easy to control now with 7 man teams but QS are still one of the stronger teams

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Matthews is a totally different rider than he was at orica. So it's unfair to still bash him with the 'Gerrans' like comments. He's been much more active. You don't even have to go back far. He was active at PV, attacking multiple times.

Yeah, they managed to get the Matt White wheelsucker indoctrination out of his head.
They guy was a good climber in the U23 ranks while being a good sprinter at the same time.
8th on gc in the 2010 Tour de l'Avenir, 6th on the Risoul MTF and the following day a 6th place in the final Risoul MTT and the competition wasn't that bad.
You may dislike him, but the guy's really talented.

 

[RedheadDane]

My favorite classic of the calendar. Way better than freaky cobbles or too obvious MS and GdL.

***** Valverde
**** Kwiatkowski, Matthews
*** Valgren, Alaphillipe
* Vanendert, Martin

MS wasn't exactly obvious this year, though. Was it?

 

[drc]

My favorite classic of the calendar. Way better than freaky cobbles or too obvious MS and GdL.

***** Valverde
**** Kwiatkowski, Matthews
*** Valgren, Alaphillipe
* Vanendert, Martin

MS wasn't exactly obvious this year, though. Was it?

Well, maybe not this year but in general/on average. It's second best to LBL though IMHO.

 

[DFA123]

My favorite classic of the calendar. Way better than freaky cobbles or too obvious MS and GdL.

***** Valverde
**** Kwiatkowski, Matthews
*** Valgren, Alaphillipe
* Vanendert, Martin

Completely agree. A fantastic race for the cycling purists - and anyone else who has an attention span of longer than a few minutes.

And extra kudos for only including 7 riders in your stars list, rather than rendering it utterly meaningless by including half the field.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

The Ardennes will remain boring until Valverde retires. Fresh blood is needed for these races.... edited by mod

AGR and FW have been the best two races of the season so far.