108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[Tonton]

Yep, I saw that gap open, and I thought that was it. Kwiat said that he did it in purpose to get Sagan to react and launch the sprint? I'm not so sure that I buy it, he almost got vino-ed. So he was happy to win and made a brash statement: I'm not so sure that I buy it. In the heat of the moment, post race, I don't know. Both Kwiat and Alaphilippe knew that Sagan had committed when he attacked and did most of the work, they knew that he wouldn't bluff and slow down, risk to lose it all. That predictability puts Sagan at a disadvantage. I don't blame him, though. If we got this fantastic finish, that's thanks to him. The guy is a treasure.

I don't get what all the discussion about. Kwait said, which was obvious to moi, that he backed off Sagan's wheel to take advantage of his slipstream and induce him to launch his sprint from too far out. It's not like it's a super original strategy. To the contrary, it's elementary my dear Watson. What is somewhat unbelievable, however, is that a rider of Sagan's class (though admittedly what nature gave to his body, took from his wits) fell so disasterously for it. There is no doubt that Sagan was not only the strongest rider, his attack on the Poggio showed that, but also the fastest. And it was only a lack of race acumen and the necessary sangue freddo (which is kind of surprising, giving the detached, laid back and nonchalant persona he cultivates for himself in the media) to time his sprint properly that prooved fatal.

Proof that Sagan was hoodwinked and that Kwait had set him up, we read in what they respectively said post race (as quoted in today's la Gazetta dello Sport). Sagan: "Then, when I saw 'Kwait' had lost a few meters I went. There were 300, perhaps 250 meters to go. I don't know. They were too many..." Kwait: "I knew that Sagan was faster. I played with him tactically. I left a small gap, which I knew I could close. I saw that Peter looked back (at me). Then I came back to him taking advantage of the slipstream. It's a tactic you learn on the track."

Look, and I'm not making this up, when Sagan launched his sprint at the front from that far out, I literally jumped from the couch and shouted "No! It's too soon! You're gonna get nipped at the line by Kwait!" And that's exactly what happened. Obviously Sagan didn't hear me and preferred suicide. Sagan though he could win on brute strenght. But in the end he was a victim of his own plan, because with that setting he left himself no alternative. And the legs aren't infinite.

Did I hit a nerve? What a diatribe...yep, you don't get my point ...which is that Kwiat may have been more opportunistic than calculating and provoking the gap and Sagan's subsequent move. If he did, brilliant. If he didn't, still briliant, he won. But it seems to me that Kwiat was looking a lot over his shoulder not to be jumped by Balaphilippe and be boxed in, and that may have provoked the gap. That was my read when watching the race, and I watched it again. Kwiat may have found himself in a dream scenario, see that Sagan is going, and then seize the opportunity, track-style indeed. Had he reacted half a second later, game over. What is obvious to toi is not obvious to moi . Disagree all you want, it's fine, and maybe you're right: it's a forum, isn't it? And we can disagree.

 

[sQiD]

Sagan doesn't seem to have the cold calculating mind when it really counts

aka the Doha Worlds. MSR dosen't count a lot for him , when it really matters (Worlds, Flanders, Roubaix) he is a Killer.

Yeah, you keep saying that MSR doesn't matter that much to him. I really think you are wrong about that and I would like to know why you would think that? My guess is that it is primarily denial on your part - but he cannot be expected to just ride alone to the finish on any type of parcours.

As far as I saw it, he was maximising his chances by attacking on the Poggio and then he was unfortunate with the company he got.

And believe me, it really mattered yesterday as well.

It's just that brute force will take you longer on the cobbles (even though it was extremely close to taking him to the victory yesterday) but that doesn't mean that MSR doesn't count as well.

In fact, I think he was extremely disappointed after the race, which he just never shows.

I say that MSR count less for Peter compared to Flanders and Roubaix. In 2012, he said that those two races are his dream. He got Flanders last year, so the next big target is Roubaix.

Of course he would like to win MSR, but it's not a difficult race. That's why he said it's a lottery where the strongest cannot always win. He lost in 2012 because he had Nibali in front, in 2013 because he underestimate Ciolek and lauched his sprint too early. And in 2014 & 2015 he didn't have the legs.

This time he lost due to a genius move from Kwito who deliberatelly left a space between him and Peter at the 250 m line and Sagan felt for it. He did the perfect race but Kwito is and will always remain a very smart rider.
Peter just enjoys riding Flanders & Roubaix more than MSR.

Believe me, when Peter is disappointed, you can see it. Just look at his interviews after OHN after losing again to GVA. In constrat, his reaction yerserday was very gracious in defeat.

Before the race everybody was saying that if he wants to win he should wait for the sprint. But for me, he had to try something and see what happens. So he surges when nobody was expecting it but he wasn't alone. Next year he will try the same attack again and will learn from this year's finish.

 

[Tonton]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

 

[Dan2016]

Yep, you don't get my point ...which is that Kwiat may have been more opportunistic than calculating and provoking the gap and Sagan's subsequent move. If he did, brilliant. If he didn't, still briliant, he won. But it seems to me that Kwiat was looking a lot over his shoulder not to be jumped by Balaphilippe and be boxed in, and that may have provoked the gap. That was my read when watching the race, and I watched it again. And I'm "not so sure". It's obvious to toi, not to moi. Disagree all you want, it's fine, and maybe you're right: it's a forum, isn't it? And we can disagree.

Yeah I read it the same way as yourself. But I'm taking Kwiat at his word with his post-race comments. He doesn't come across as the type of guy that would make it up. I reckon he would've just said ''Yeah I left a big gap by mistake and was lucky to have the legs to close it and win'' or something like that. But the post-race analysis is all part of the fun isn't it.

Not many riders would have the balls to use that tactic against a guy like Sagan...or the legs to still win if it was a mistake. Very impressive.

And there is no way Sagan wouldn't be gutted not to win this, whoever said that up thread. It's one of THE great classics, steeped in history. Every classics rider would love to win it.

 

[sprints n stones]

Think the reason he showed regret after OHN was bizarrely no-one had updated him that the race carried World Tour points. He definitely seemed to be using that race as practice. Dropping to the back of group just before the climbs to make it harder as he had to work past other riders uphill. I think MSR did matter as my commentator kept mentioning no-one had won it wearing World Championship jersey since 1983 ( think it was ) Kwiat is an old adverserery from his Junior days and he is resigned to sometimes losing to him. My opinion is he doesn't like losing to GVA as they are regarded as having similar skill set and losing to him means he could have won but did something wrong.

 

[Tonton]

Indeed. If Merckx won it seven times, it must be good .

For the Kwiat interview, I'm not calling him a liar or anything, but in the heat of the moment, euphoria, excitement often prevails over facts: that's why debriefings exist. Get a cold head and analyze.

Regardless, by design or by opportunity, it's a fantastic win.

 

[sQiD]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

Of course he wants to win it, but in terms of his priorities this season it just comes second after Roubaix.

I can't say he can win Lombaria, it could be very difficult for him. During Tirreno, he said that if the spring classics becomes boring, he might aim at LBL and the Ardenes, but said it's unlikely to happen.

Finally, i agree with you that inside him it hurts, he's a human being after all.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

to me Sagan did everything wright. What a monster shape. Reaaaaly good to see this performance with the rainbow jersey.
maybe a bit overconfidence on the sprint but how not to be after riding everybody but 2 out of his wheel.
I still think attacking there was/is his best chance. Better to Sprint with those 2 than with most of the sprinters..
just looked again and Ala had just went to the front when it seemed Popel was a little "slow" and then Sagan exploded. i guess if it wasn't for Ala, Kiawa wouldn't be able to go back to Sagan. Who knows?
awesome to see everybody trying desperately to go back and couldn't even reduce the gap..
Great race!

 

[sQiD]

Re:

Think the reason he showed regret after OHN was bizarrely no-one had updated him that the race carried World Tour points. He definitely seemed to be using that race as practice. Dropping to the back of group just before the climbs to make it harder as he had to work past other riders uphill. I think MSR did matter as my commentator kept mentioning no-one had won it wearing World Championship jersey since 1983 ( think it was ) Kwiat is an old adverserery from his Junior days and he is resigned to sometimes losing to him. My opinion is he doesn't like losing to GVA as they are regarded as having similar skill set and losing to him means he could have won but did something wrong.

I totally agree with you. After all, he lost to someone who worked with him last year at Flanders, so it's less hurting than losing to GVA.

Peter always says that he never plan for races, but have a look at his coach's comment :

"Today's race followed the plan we had. We knew that Peter had to attack on the Poggio because that was the only point where he could drop everybody. From the morning, our objective was to bring him there in the best position possible and the squad did a very good job. He went on fire on the Poggio and the goal was to go solo, but Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe went after him. We had expected the last two guys to go with him would be them, and it proved to be the case. Peter then did an incredible job in the descent and then the flat part but, unfortunately, he was beaten on the line by Kwiatkowski. It hurts when you lose by a couple of centimetres but that's how it is. It's part of the game. Still, Peter and the whole team deserve congratulations for their big effort."

 

[Tonton]

...which reinforces my point, actually . Speaking from both sides of his mouth...Sagan was going to win solo...but we knew who the three other guys making it a no-solo win would be. We had it all figured out . Rationalizing. Making sense of the result afterwards...it's not dishonesty, it's just reacting in the heat of the moment.

 

[SKSemtex]

I have just found a new person to blame for Sagan lost. . It must be GVA for sure.
For me, it was like 60:40 that there will be an attack on Poggio with 4 main players GVA Kiwi Alap and Sagan.
Unfortunately, GVA did not join the party.
The sprint would be completely different with a different winner.
Kiwi is in the excellent rider in excellent form but his after race bull *** how he can beat him anytime he wants and how he plays with Sagan is just ridiculous.
He was just extremely lucky here. No way he could close the gap to Sagan by himself. He was just lucky that Julian is in amazing form too and he killed himself in Poggio for Kiwi.
I know Peter is not riding AGR but he should teach KIWI lesson for those speeches. Either to win it or to hand it to somebody else just to show that he is not so smart at all. I am pretty confident he can do it.

 

[rick james]

I have just found a new person to blame for Sagan lost. . It must be GVA for sure.
For me, it was like 60:40 that there will be an attack on Poggio with 4 main players GVA Kiwi Alap and Sagan.
Unfortunately, GVA did not join the party.
The sprint would be completely different with a different winner.
Kiwi is in the excellent rider in excellent form but his after race bull **** how he can beat him anytime he wants and how he plays with Sagan is just ridiculous.
He was just extremely lucky here. No way he could close the gap to Sagan by himself. He was just lucky that Julian is in amazing form too and he killed himself in Poggio for Kiwi.
I know Peter is not riding AGR but he should teach KIWI lesson for those speeches. Either to win it or to hand it to somebody else just to show that he is not so smart at all. I am pretty confident he can do it.

tell a lie enough times and it might come true..

 

[SKSemtex]

I have just found a new person to blame for Sagan lost. . It must be GVA for sure.
For me, it was like 60:40 that there will be an attack on Poggio with 4 main players GVA Kiwi Alap and Sagan.
Unfortunately, GVA did not join the party.
The sprint would be completely different with a different winner.
Kiwi is in the excellent rider in excellent form but his after race bull **** how he can beat him anytime he wants and how he plays with Sagan is just ridiculous.
He was just extremely lucky here. No way he could close the gap to Sagan by himself. He was just lucky that Julian is in amazing form too and he killed himself in Poggio for Kiwi.
I know Peter is not riding AGR but he should teach KIWI lesson for those speeches. Either to win it or to hand it to somebody else just to show that he is not so smart at all. I am pretty confident he can do it.

tell a lie enough times and it might come true..

It is anopinion. My opinion. It is not a lie. You should know the difference. This is the forum after all.

 

[SKSemtex]

I really do not know why teams like Movistar, Cannondale ... were here. Cudos to Dumoulin at least for trying. He gave his sponsor at least some TV time.
Being Cannondale owner I am very unhappy with my investment. Of course, they had no chance to win, but they could still do something on Cipressa. Bottom of Poggio. Something to make cycling more spectacular.
For Borra owner is Sagan second by attack better than Sagan first in the sprint I think. (just my opinion again)
And that's why Sagan has 6 million and if he keeps riding like this his next contract will be 10 mil.

 

[manolo57]

The strava data of Demare show that last year he climbed the Cipressa slower (10'02) than the bunch on Saturday (9'50). Funny

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Afaik "he owes me a few beers" is a very common phrase

Maybe it's very common to think people owes you a few beers.

 

[saganist]

Re:

The strava data of Demare show that last year he climbed the Cipressa slower (10'02) than the bunch on Saturday (9'50). Funny

I was also surprised to see that MK was faster last year in the Poggio descent. He was indeed attacking, but I though they made it faster this year. Maybe they sat up a bit toward the end.

 

[DFA123]

I have just found a new person to blame for Sagan lost. . It must be GVA for sure.
For me, it was like 60:40 that there will be an attack on Poggio with 4 main players GVA Kiwi Alap and Sagan.
Unfortunately, GVA did not join the party.
The sprint would be completely different with a different winner.
Kiwi is in the excellent rider in excellent form but his after race bull **** how he can beat him anytime he wants and how he plays with Sagan is just ridiculous.
He was just extremely lucky here. No way he could close the gap to Sagan by himself. He was just lucky that Julian is in amazing form too and he killed himself in Poggio for Kiwi.
I know Peter is not riding AGR but he should teach KIWI lesson for those speeches. Either to win it or to hand it to somebody else just to show that he is not so smart at all. I am pretty confident he can do it.

To be fair, hasn't Kwiatkowski beaten Sagan every time they've come to the final km in races together, or in a very small group? He's just stronger at the finish of hard races and knows it. Sagan, for all his strengths, has a relatively bad sprint after doing a lot of work in the last 10km. Kwiatkowksi's, on the other hand, seems to lose nothing from his sprint however hard the race is.

 

[sQiD]

I really do not know why teams like Movistar, Cannondale ... were here. Cudos to Dumoulin at least for trying. He gave his sponsor at least some TV time.
Being Cannondale owner I am very unhappy with my investment. Of course, they had no chance to win, but they could still do something on Cipressa. Bottom of Poggio. Something to make cycling more spectacular.
For Borra owner is Sagan second by attack better than Sagan first in the sprint I think. (just my opinion again)
And that's why Sagan has 6 million and if he keeps riding like this his next contract will be 10 mil.

“We wanted to win,” Bora General Manager Ralph Denk said. “Peter didn’t want to just win, though, he wanted to paint a masterpiece doing so. I think we saw that with the world champion attacking on the Poggio and fighting to Sanremo.”

But after hat he said : http://www.velonews.com/2017/03/news/no-regrets-for-bora-after-sagans-silver-in-sanremo_433122

 

[sQiD]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

Of course he wants to win it, but in terms of his priorities this season it just comes second after Roubaix.

I can't say he can win Lombaria, it could be very difficult for him. During Tirreno, he said that if the spring classics becomes boring, he might aim at LBL and the Ardenes, but said it's unlikely to happen.

Finally, i agree with you that inside him it hurts, he's a human being after all.

Interesting moment that we didn't see after the race : "Sagan snorts, throwing the water bottle to the lands after reviewing the sprint in front of the monitor."
http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/sport...pegne-volata-e-kwiatkowski-beffa-1376712.html

 

[barmaher]

I was away for the weekend, so just catching up on the comments.

It is amazing how you guys fight about nearly every race involving Sagan, Contador or Quintana.

The last 10km were great. Sagan was beaten because he had an adversary who was close to him in strength, but able to outdo him with a combination of tactics, brains and a fair bit of strength.

I hate the use of the term "wheelsucker". Alaphillipe and Kwiatek were allowing Sagan to do the work because it was the best chance for them (or their team) to win.

 

[KGB]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

Of course he wants to win it, but in terms of his priorities this season it just comes second after Roubaix.

I can't say he can win Lombaria, it could be very difficult for him. During Tirreno, he said that if the spring classics becomes boring, he might aim at LBL and the Ardenes, but said it's unlikely to happen.

Finally, i agree with you that inside him it hurts, he's a human being after all.

Interesting moment that we didn't see after the race : "Sagan snorts, throwing the water bottle to the lands after reviewing the sprint in front of the monitor."
http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/sport...pegne-volata-e-kwiatkowski-beffa-1376712.html

He knew very well he *** up once again.Time to use more brain in next block of classic races and not just raw power.Kwiatek gave him another good lesson.