108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[Flamin]

The problem for Sagan, and of a lot of super strong riders in the past, is the following..

If they attack or counter attack, everyone who goes with them doesn't really want to co-operate much. So he has to either exhaust himself to stay away and risk losing that sprint. Or fall back to the group and then do a mass sprint, which is much harder to win.

If they stay in the bunch and do not react to an attack, nobody in the bunch will want to work to bring him back, because a fresh Sagan after a hard race is still too hard to beat.

Too strong for his own good.

This attack was unanticipated. I think that if Sagan were to do it next time he'd have his team make the race harder on the Poggio.

I think his whole team was gone when the Poggio started?

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

'His only real chance' you're joking right?

No, on the contrary, I am quite serious. As I see it now, the only chance of sagan winning is solo. But there is always gonna be some kwiat or alaphilipe, I believe had alaphilipe been there with sagan alone, without kwiat, he would have been the winner. And also, there are the years where there is headwind on poggio and bunch of too many sprinters for sagan to beat.
I am not saying sagan won't win in san remo. he will always be a factor, but I am afraid he might never actually win it. And after that gerrans edition, I actually thought he would come close to zabels reckord, if not breaking it.

 

[Jspear]

The problem for Sagan, and of a lot of super strong riders in the past, is the following..

If they attack or counter attack, everyone who goes with them doesn't really want to co-operate much. So he has to either exhaust himself to stay away and risk losing that sprint. Or fall back to the group and then do a mass sprint, which is much harder to win.

If they stay in the bunch and do not react to an attack, nobody in the bunch will want to work to bring him back, because a fresh Sagan after a hard race is still too hard to beat.

Too strong for his own good.

This attack was unanticipated. I think that if Sagan were to do it next time he'd have his team make the race harder on the Poggio.

I think his whole team was gone when the Poggio started?

I didn't see any there in the last 8 K. In this case that was okay. Dumoulin was setting a very hard pace up the Poggio. DVP wasn't even holding his wheel that much. Dumoulin did Sagan a favor there.

 

[Tonton]

Superb win for Kwiat, bravo! Sagan did what he had to do to get clear of the better sprinters, and if it wasn't for the two meddling kids catching up before the top, he would have increased the gap in the descent and won solo. Great tactics on his part, until the last kilometer: leading the sprint was, as it turned out, a mistake. It's easy to criticize from my couch, though. So kudos Sagan, great champion. And Alaphilippe...I wish him to score big this upcoming spring: he so deserved it. Great finish, great MSR, so far in '17 we have seen a lot of great cycling.

 

[May0maniac]

It's a bit weird that Kristoff didn't have a single teammate in the 50 men bunch behind the race leader, Spilak of all people was the one who did a ton on work and buried himself to bring him near the front when he was near the back of the leading group.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

'His only real chance' you're joking right?

No, on the contrary, I am quite serious. As I see it now, the only chance of sagan winning is solo. But there is always gonna be some kwiat or alaphilipe, I believe had alaphilipe been there with sagan alone, without kwiat, he would have been the winner. And also, there are the years where there is headwind on poggio and bunch of too many sprinters for sagan to beat.
I am not saying sagan won't win in san remo. he will always be a factor, but I am afraid he might never actually win it. And after that gerrans edition, I actually thought he would come close to zabels reckord, if not breaking it.

This

 

[Red Rick]

Sagan would've won today if not for *** up his sprint. Plenty of riders he can go to the finish with and risk the sprint. Also, the gap they got to the peloton was huge, which makes it harder for the other rider to bluff and let Sagan tire himself.

 

[Flamin]

Come to think of it, what happened to the fixed camera at the top of Poggio, when they take a left 180 corner into the descent. One of the most iconic shots in the cycling world imo and it's now the second year I think they didn't use it. Also an unusual lot of moto footage on the descent, missing the beauty of it.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

'His only real chance' you're joking right?

No, on the contrary, I am quite serious. As I see it now, the only chance of sagan winning is solo. But there is always gonna be some kwiat or alaphilipe, I believe had alaphilipe been there with sagan alone, without kwiat, he would have been the winner. And also, there are the years where there is headwind on poggio and bunch of too many sprinters for sagan to beat.
I am not saying sagan won't win in san remo. he will always be a factor, but I am afraid he might never actually win it. And after that gerrans edition, I actually thought he would come close to zabels reckord, if not breaking it.

He had 2013 and he *** it up. Today, had he started his sprint 50m later, and perhaps worked slightly less when it was certain they would make it, he would've won. He's had golden opportunities, and will have more.

 

[Dan2016]

Sagan can blame only himself. He knows Kwiatko very well and knows that he could beat him in sprint after eating so much win. They had enough advantage. He should have been more cold-blooded.
Congrats to both.

I agree. He should have waited just a little bit longer.
That said, if he had waited, perhaps Kwiato would jumped him and won anyway, Who knows?

Truth is that it was a great finish. Overall well played by all three of them, each one according to their strength.

I think Sagan saw at one point that Kwiatkowski just lost his wheel slightly in the last 300m, opening up a metre or so gap, and thought he could get the jump and drop the other two enough so that they couldn't come round. Perhaps made him go a bit earlier than he would have otherwise. But Kwiatkowski was too strong and got on his wheel again almost immediately, and then timed coming round to perfection.

Ha! To the bolded, Kwait slipped back to maximize being in Sagan's slipstream and Sagan, like a sucker, fell for it. Kwait was brilliant though in that sense.

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

'His only real chance' you're joking right?

No, on the contrary, I am quite serious. As I see it now, the only chance of sagan winning is solo. But there is always gonna be some kwiat or alaphilipe, I believe had alaphilipe been there with sagan alone, without kwiat, he would have been the winner. And also, there are the years where there is headwind on poggio and bunch of too many sprinters for sagan to beat.
I am not saying sagan won't win in san remo. he will always be a factor, but I am afraid he might never actually win it. And after that gerrans edition, I actually thought he would come close to zabels reckord, if not breaking it.

He had 2013 and he **** it up. Today, had he started his sprint 50m later, and perhaps worked slightly less when it was certain they would make it, he would've won. He's had golden opportunities, and will have more.

Well, I wouldn´t be so sure, had sagan waited and kwiat wouldn't attack himself, sagan would have won, but had kwiat attacked, sagan wasn´t in shape to come round him again.

 

[classic1]

Sagan can blame only himself. He knows Kwiatko very well and knows that he could beat him in sprint after eating so much win. They had enough advantage. He should have been more cold-blooded.
Congrats to both.

I agree. He should have waited just a little bit longer.
That said, if he had waited, perhaps Kwiato would jumped him and won anyway, Who knows?

Truth is that it was a great finish. Overall well played by all three of them, each one according to their strength.

I think Sagan saw at one point that Kwiatkowski just lost his wheel slightly in the last 300m, opening up a metre or so gap, and thought he could get the jump and drop the other two enough so that they couldn't come round. Perhaps made him go a bit earlier than he would have otherwise. But Kwiatkowski was too strong and got on his wheel again almost immediately, and then timed coming round to perfection.

Ha! To the bolded, Kwait slipped back to maximize being in Sagan's slipstream and Sagan, like a sucker, fell for it. Kwait was brilliant though in that sense.

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

Rhubroma was spot on. It's old school tactics 101. Kwiatkowski would have deliberately laid off Sagan so he could race up to Sagans wheel in the slipstream.The idea is you get a bit of momentum by racing up to the wheel, momentum you wouldn't get if you simply step off the wheel and put your face in the wind. The other benefit is he gives himself room to prevent aliphillpe boxing him in. Old trackies trick. Kwiatkowski did it perfectly.

It did help that Sagan moved far to early and seemed to die at the end a bit

 

[Dan2016]

I think Sagan saw at one point that Kwiatkowski just lost his wheel slightly in the last 300m, opening up a metre or so gap, and thought he could get the jump and drop the other two enough so that they couldn't come round. Perhaps made him go a bit earlier than he would have otherwise. But Kwiatkowski was too strong and got on his wheel again almost immediately, and then timed coming round to perfection.

Ha! To the bolded, Kwait slipped back to maximize being in Sagan's slipstream and Sagan, like a sucker, fell for it. Kwait was brilliant though in that sense.

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

Rhubroma was spot on. It's old school tactics 101. Kwiatkowski would have deliberately laid off Sagan so he could race up to Sagans wheel in the slipstream.The idea is you get a bit of momentum by racing up to the wheel, momentum you wouldn't get if you simply step off the wheel and put your face in the wind. The other benefit is he gives himself room to prevent aliphillpe boxing him in. Old trackies trick. Kwiatkowski did it perfectly.

It did help that Sagan moved far to early and seemed to die at the end a bit

Nope you're wrong.
It's race tactics 101 in a break, to launch an attack, or in a 3-up sprint if your tactic is to get the first surprise jump from the very back. But Kwiat's tactic was to force Sagan into opening first.

It's not tactics 101 to do it as 2nd man in a 3-up sprint. Small gap is okay. But this was a biiiggg gap for a sprint like this. It was a mistake. It's really impressive he was so strong he got away with it though. If he was a little closer to the wheel he would've won much easier. I think the whole sprint showed he was instinctively supremely confident of winning.

Good banter to debate it in jest though innit. Bet I'd beat you in a sprint!

 

[Arked]

Sagan can blame only himself. He knows Kwiatko very well and knows that he could beat him in sprint after eating so much win. They had enough advantage. He should have been more cold-blooded.
Congrats to both.

I agree. He should have waited just a little bit longer.
That said, if he had waited, perhaps Kwiato would jumped him and won anyway, Who knows?

Truth is that it was a great finish. Overall well played by all three of them, each one according to their strength.

I think Sagan saw at one point that Kwiatkowski just lost his wheel slightly in the last 300m, opening up a metre or so gap, and thought he could get the jump and drop the other two enough so that they couldn't come round. Perhaps made him go a bit earlier than he would have otherwise. But Kwiatkowski was too strong and got on his wheel again almost immediately, and then timed coming round to perfection.

Ha! To the bolded, Kwait slipped back to maximize being in Sagan's slipstream and Sagan, like a sucker, fell for it. Kwait was brilliant though in that sense.

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

Kwiato admitted that he purposely kept little distance to provoke Sagan to go early.

 

[classic1]

I think Sagan saw at one point that Kwiatkowski just lost his wheel slightly in the last 300m, opening up a metre or so gap, and thought he could get the jump and drop the other two enough so that they couldn't come round. Perhaps made him go a bit earlier than he would have otherwise. But Kwiatkowski was too strong and got on his wheel again almost immediately, and then timed coming round to perfection.

Ha! To the bolded, Kwait slipped back to maximize being in Sagan's slipstream and Sagan, like a sucker, fell for it. Kwait was brilliant though in that sense.

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

Rhubroma was spot on. It's old school tactics 101. Kwiatkowski would have deliberately laid off Sagan so he could race up to Sagans wheel in the slipstream.The idea is you get a bit of momentum by racing up to the wheel, momentum you wouldn't get if you simply step off the wheel and put your face in the wind. The other benefit is he gives himself room to prevent aliphillpe boxing him in. Old trackies trick. Kwiatkowski did it perfectly.

It did help that Sagan moved far to early and seemed to die at the end a bit

Nope you're wrong.
It's race tactics 101 in a break, to launch an attack, or in a 3-up sprint if your tactic is to get the first surprise jump from the very back. But Kwiat's tactic was to force Sagan into opening first.

It's not tactics 101 to do it as 2nd man in a 3-up sprint. Small gap is okay. But this was a biiiggg gap for a sprint like this. It was a mistake. It's really impressive he was so strong he got away with it though. If he was a little closer to the wheel he would've won much easier. I think the whole sprint showed he was instinctively supremely confident of winning.

Good banter to debate it in jest though innit. Bet I'd beat you in a sprint!

You'd only beat me because I'm fat and don't ride much anymore, not through tactical nouce. I've had this stuff hammered into me since I was a kiddie.

Do you even know how to lay off the wheel in a sprint? He only laid off 1.5-2 lengths. Track sprinters lay off the wheel even more than that. After I posted, CN put up an interview with Kwiatkowski. He spelt it out exactly as Rhumbroma and I commented. Three up sprint tactics 101. If he'd been closer to the wheel he wouldn't have had the momentum to pass (which he got by laying off), or he'd have gotten boxed in.

 

[Dan2016]

Was too big a gap for slipstream benefit. It was a mistake, but Kwiat was so strong he still won. He's lucky he was strong enough to get away with it. It happened because he was so concerned about Alaphillipe getting the jump on him and boxing him in. Kwiat was looking behind/peripheral and the gap grew. Boxed-in is game over.

Oh and look at Sagan's body hesitation to rise out off the saddle for the sprint - classic sign of legs turned to lead. He was dying.

Anyway whatever our interpretation, what an absolutely fabulous race. Edge of my seat stuff. Chapeau Sagan. Gutted he didn't win but what a great show!

Rhubroma was spot on. It's old school tactics 101. Kwiatkowski would have deliberately laid off Sagan so he could race up to Sagans wheel in the slipstream.The idea is you get a bit of momentum by racing up to the wheel, momentum you wouldn't get if you simply step off the wheel and put your face in the wind. The other benefit is he gives himself room to prevent aliphillpe boxing him in. Old trackies trick. Kwiatkowski did it perfectly.

It did help that Sagan moved far to early and seemed to die at the end a bit

Nope you're wrong.
It's race tactics 101 in a break, to launch an attack, or in a 3-up sprint if your tactic is to get the first surprise jump from the very back. But Kwiat's tactic was to force Sagan into opening first.

It's not tactics 101 to do it as 2nd man in a 3-up sprint. Small gap is okay. But this was a biiiggg gap for a sprint like this. It was a mistake. It's really impressive he was so strong he got away with it though. If he was a little closer to the wheel he would've won much easier. I think the whole sprint showed he was instinctively supremely confident of winning.

Good banter to debate it in jest though innit. Bet I'd beat you in a sprint!

After that post, I doubt you've even raced before.

Do you even know how to lay off the wheel in a sprint? He only laid off 1.5-2 lengths. Track sprinters lay off the wheel even more than that. After I posted, CN put up an interview with Kwiatkowski. He spent it out exactly as Rhumbroma and I commented. Three up sprint tactics 101. If he'd been closer to the wheel he wouldn't have had the momentum to pass (which he got by laying off), or he'd have gotten boxed in.

Fair play to yourself and Rhumbroma. I'm always happy to be wrong.
I raced for many years to a decent level actually but I was always a crap sprinter...no surprises there then I hear you shouting! The thing that strikes me about this tactic his how strong and confident he must have been feeling. I said supremely confident before but I'm even surprised he was that confident to leave that big a gap. Dangerous game to play with a guy like Sagan isn't it...if that gap increases too much with Sagan's jump etc. Anyway very impressive sprint and great finale.
Cheers for the banter.

 

[rhubroma]

The problem for Sagan, and of a lot of super strong riders in the past, is the following..

If they attack or counter attack, everyone who goes with them doesn't really want to co-operate much. So he has to either exhaust himself to stay away and risk losing that sprint. Or fall back to the group and then do a mass sprint, which is much harder to win.

If they stay in the bunch and do not react to an attack, nobody in the bunch will want to work to bring him back, because a fresh Sagan after a hard race is still too hard to beat.

Too strong for his own good.

Bingo. But in today's cycling Sagan found two companions up for the fight. He then screwed up the sprint.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Lol Kwiat get congratulated for doing what Gerrans does. Got to love this forum

Finally someone not bias in here.

I think there is a difference. Gerrans vs Cancellara is a very close sprint. Kwiatkowski vs Sagan isn't. Kwiat had only one option, I'm surprised he worked so much. Gerrans is hated because he doesn't work when he really should do, for his own good.

Kwiato worked too much ??? I hope you are being sarcastic ... He took 2 pulls one of 3-4 seconds and other of about 2 seconds .

I agree, Sagan did 99% of the work since he attacked.

Two bad timings fron Sagan.

1. The attack should come 5sec later and he should have no passengers.
2. Early sprint. Sprinting from 100-150m would do the trick.

... Sagan the strongest, Kwiat the luckiest. Because without Sagan and A'phill, he would never win. One drag him to Sagan, the other to the finish line.

Hopefully, Sagan learned a lesson ...

 

[Tonton]

Yep, I saw that gap open, and I thought that was it. Kwiat said that he did it in purpose to get Sagan to react and launch the sprint? I'm not so sure that I buy it, he almost got vino-ed. So he was happy to win and made a brash statement: I'm not so sure that I buy it. In the heat of the moment, post race, I don't know. Both Kwiat and Alaphilippe knew that Sagan had committed when he attacked and did most of the work, they knew that he wouldn't bluff and slow down, risk to lose it all. That predictability puts Sagan at a disadvantage. I don't blame him, though. If we got this fantastic finish, that's thanks to him. The guy is a treasure.

 

[classic1]

Fair play to yourself and Rhumbroma. I'm always happy to be wrong.
I raced for many years to a decent level actually but I was always a crap sprinter...no surprises there then I hear you shouting! The thing that strikes me about this tactic his how strong and confident he must have been feeling. I said supremely confident before but I'm even surprised he was that confident to leave that big a gap. Dangerous game to play with a guy like Sagan isn't it...if that gap increases too much with Sagan's jump etc. Anyway very impressive sprint and great finale.
Cheers for the banter

You are right, Kwiatkowski still needed to have the confidence...and the legs...to do it, especially with a class act like Sagan. It worked out beautifully for him, and he knew exactly what he was doing. No good laying off if you don't have the ability to race back up to the wheel!

 

[The Hegelian]

Chapeau to all three. Thoroughbred podium ~ nice to see that. Like 2012 there's nothing lucky or dubious about the winner. If you're strong enough to be off the front near the top of the Poggio that ain't luck. And if you ain't playing a bit of poker off the descent then you're just being stupid. Kwia is in immense form, and played it artfully. Very deserved win.

Also shows the difference in class between Cancellera and Sagan: Cancellara is still bitching about being beaten by Gerrans; Sagan offered an immediate handshake and is on to the next show.

 

[szuro]

"Sagan the strongest, Kwiat the luckiest. Because without Sagan and A'phill, he would never win. One drag him to Sagan, the other to the finish line." -

- The Sevres of fanboyism.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Chapeau to all three. Thoroughbred podium ~ nice to see that. Like 2012 there's nothing lucky or dubious about the winner. If you're strong enough to be off the front near the top of the Poggio that ain't luck. And if you ain't playing a bit of poker off the descent then you're just being stupid. Kwia is in immense form, and played it artfully. Very deserved win.

Also shows the difference in class between Cancellera and Sagan: Cancellara is still bitching about being beaten by Gerrans; Sagan offered an immediate handshake and is on to the next show.

Nah, they both said they were the strongest and that the strongest doesn't always win. There's no bitching there by either. I didn't at all get the impression that Canc was bitter.

 

[rhubroma]

Yep, I saw that gap open, and I thought that was it. Kwiat said that he did it in purpose to get Sagan to react and launch the sprint? I'm not so sure that I buy it, he almost got vino-ed. So he was happy to win and made a brash statement: I'm not so sure that I buy it. In the heat of the moment, post race, I don't know. Both Kwiat and Alaphilippe knew that Sagan had committed when he attacked and did most of the work, they knew that he wouldn't bluff and slow down, risk to lose it all. That predictability puts Sagan at a disadvantage. I don't blame him, though. If we got this fantastic finish, that's thanks to him. The guy is a treasure.

I don't get what all the discussion about. Kwait said, which was obvious to moi, that he backed off Sagan's wheel to take advantage of his slipstream and induce him to launch his sprint from too far out. It's not like it's a super original strategy. To the contrary, it's elementary my dear Watson. What is somewhat unbelievable, however, is that a rider of Sagan's class (though admittedly what nature gave to his body, took from his wits) fell so disasterously for it. There is no doubt that Sagan was not only the strongest rider, his attack on the Poggio showed that, but also the fastest. And it was only a lack of race acumen and the necessary sangue freddo (which is kind of surprising, giving the detached, laid back and nonchalant persona he cultivates for himself in the media) to time his sprint properly that prooved fatal.

Proof that Sagan was hoodwinked and that Kwait had set him up, we read in what they respectively said post race (as quoted in today's la Gazetta dello Sport). Sagan: "Then, when I saw 'Kwait' had lost a few meters I went. There were 300, perhaps 250 meters to go. I don't know. They were too many..." Kwait: "I knew that Sagan was faster. I played with him tactically. I left a small gap, which I knew I could close. I saw that Peter looked back (at me). Then I came back to him taking advantage of the slipstream. It's a tactic you learn on the track."

Look, and I'm not making this up, when Sagan launched his sprint at the front from that far out, I literally jumped from the couch and shouted "No! It's too soon! You're gonna get nipped at the line by Kwait!" And that's exactly what happened. Obviously Sagan didn't hear me and preferred suicide. Sagan though he could win on brute strenght. But in the end he was a victim of his own plan, because with that setting he left himself no alternative. And the legs aren't infinite.

 

[Red Rick]

"Sagan the strongest, Kwiat the luckiest. Because without Sagan and A'phill, he would never win. One drag him to Sagan, the other to the finish line." -

- The Sevres of fanboyism.

It's like 90% true. Only case that can be made for Kwiatkowski is that he was taking better lines in the descent than Sagan