13th Tour Down Under 2011, (809 kms) WT Jan 16-23

[Sasquatch]

StanJames opened Cav's odds at 34 and Farrar's at 14.

But they cap your bets, then they reduce the odds heavily you won't be able to get much on.

 

[Ferminal]

I'm wondering if maybe the fact that so many quality sprinters are in the field might even open up the GC a bit. Last year, Griepel won by 11 seconds over LL Sanchez, but had something like 12 bonus seconds over him by virtue of winning 3 stages vs Sanchez's 1. But if the top sprinters switch up victories between, say, Griepel, Farrar and Cav, that could open the door for someone like Ballan or Bobridge or even more of a climber to get enough seconds in Stirling or Willunga to win the overall... anyone else think this is possible?

That's certainly what I'm hoping for.

I have the same 5 as the sprinters who can win it ACF (inc. Cav), the problem for Farrar is that he's the 3rd best sprinter behind Cav and Greipel and the 3rd best """""climber"""" behind Davis and Goss. He wont get enough bonuses behind Cav and Greipel (not to mention half a dozen others who could podium on any stage) nor will he beat Davis or Goss on the Willunga or Stirling stages.

Hence those odds are ridiculous, Sasquatch!

 

[Sasquatch]

Looking at the longer odds

Ballan 51
Rojas 81

Rojas came third in 2008 and 2009 but bombed last year.

BMC want early points and Ballan is their man to get the Stirling stage and attack on Willunga

Again, if Cav wins stage 1, stage 2, stage 4, stage 6 then he should battle well enough on stage 5 to take the win.

Movistar don't have Valverde and Sanchez like last year, so they will focus more on Rojas.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Looking at the longer odds

Ballan 51
Rojas 81

Rojas came third in 2008 and 2009 but bombed last year.

BMC want early points and Ballan is their man to get the Stirling stage and attack on Willunga

Again, if Cav wins stage 1, stage 2, stage 4, stage 6 then he should battle well enough on stage 5 to take the win.

IASBET has got Cav and Greipel at equal favourites. Henderson's odds are way to short but Kristoff is very good value at $34.

Ballan is not a bad tip for Stirling. Goss would be favourite for that stage.

 

[Sasquatch]

Kristoff is very good value at $34.

.

No chance.

Won't run top 15 overall.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

IASBET has got Cav and Greipel at equal favourites. Henderson's odds are way to short but Kristoff is very good value at $34.

lol nope, not at all.

for a guy who didn't record a single victory last year to have odds that shorts is surprising.

Considering his results and reputation I wouldn't bet on him unless his odds were 80+. In reality he has no chance at TDU overall.

@sasquatch
rojas is definitely worth a go. decent odds.

 

[auscyclefan94]

No chance.

Won't run top 15 overall.

lol nope, not at all.

for a guy who didn't record a single victory last year to have odds that shorts is surprising.

Considering his results and reputation I wouldn't bet on him unless his odds were 80+. In reality he has no chance at TDU overall.

@sasquatch
rojas is definitely worth a go. decent odds.

All i will say is we'll see.

 

[will10]

lol nope, not at all.

for a guy who didn't record a single victory last year to have odds that shorts is surprising.

Considering his results and reputation I wouldn't bet on him unless his odds were 80+. In reality he has no chance at TDU overall.

@sasquatch
rojas is definitely worth a go. decent odds.

It's cos Auscyclefan just stuck £1000 on him to win and drastically shortened the odds

 

[blaxland]

For me Matt Goss/Simon Gerrans/Rojas all should be considered favourites,but much depends on what happens on Willunga hill.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

For me Matt Goss/Simon Gerrans/Rojas all should be considered favourites,but much depends on what happens on Willunga hill.

ehh.. gerrans really? i very highly doubht that.

he won't feature in the sprint stages, and the time bonuses gained their will be to much for gerrans to get back on the wilunga stage, which wasn't enough for the likes of valverde, LLS, valverde, sagan etc, so i'm guessing it certainly wont be enough for gerrans

This is a sprinters race, and this year's field suggest it will be even more so this year. Griepel is certainly a favorite, along with the other obvious choices.

 

[blaxland]

ehh.. gerrans really? i very highly doubht that.

he won't feature in the sprint stages, and the time bonuses gained their will be to much for gerrans to get back on the wilunga stage, which wasn't enough for the likes of valverde, LLS, valverde, sagan etc, so i'm guessing it certainly wont be enough for gerrans

This is a sprinters race, and this year's field suggest it will be even more so this year. Griepel is certainly a favorite, along with the other obvious choices.

The odds are certainly against him but strange things could happen...But your right regaurding this race being a sprinters race 9/10 times....

 

[lucybears]

ehh.. gerrans really? i very highly doubht that.

he won't feature in the sprint stages, and the time bonuses gained their will be to much for gerrans to get back on the wilunga stage, which wasn't enough for the likes of valverde, LLS, valverde, sagan etc, so i'm guessing it certainly wont be enough for gerrans

This is a sprinters race, and this year's field suggest it will be even more so this year. Griepel is certainly a favorite, along with the other obvious choices.

2006 Tour Down Under champion ready to take up the challenge against the sprinters

After missing the past two editions of the Santos Tour Down Under, 2006 champion Simon Gerrans is back in Adelaide with the motivation of a potential winner after showing great form by taking the bronze medal at the Australian Open Road Race Championship on Sunday in Ballarat.

http://www.cyclenation.co.za/international-news/item/2961-In-form-Gerrans-returns-to-winning-turf

 

[Ferminal]

The problem is there aren't enough strong teams without a sprinter.

OPL: Greipel
TRS: McEwen
HTC: Cavendish/Goss
Garmin: Farrar
Rabo: Brown/Matthews
Sky: Henderson/Sutton
Astana: Davis
LeoTrek: -
QuickStep: Chicchi
Katusha: Galimzyanov
Lampre: -
Leaky: -
BMC: (Kristoff)
Saxo: Haedos
Euskaltel: -
Movistar: Rojas
Vacansoleil: Feillu
UniSA: -

Obviously the squads with a weaker sprinter or none at all may be able to do something, but remember this is the TdU in January, no one really cares. The lesser squads aren't going to be up the front on Stage 5 laying down the hurt.

The only way something will happen if say Farrar is out of contention and Garmin let Bobridge/Meyers have a go. Same with Sky and Gerrans/Rogers. Some of the tougher sprinters (Davis, Rojas) may also get their team to work to drop the other sprinters.

It looks a lot less exciting (that stage) as opposed to last year. The only thing which may make it a bit interesting is Greipel being on a different team (might not get pushed up like last year) and HTC with two cards to play.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Interesting interview with Cavendish

 

[maltiv]

Interesting interview with Cavendish

That last question made no sense whatsoever. Cavendish looks completely bewildered, with good reason.

 

[Roland Rat]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cav et al work for Goss*. He was my pick for the Nationals and is clearly in good form. I think he's in for a big season, will do well in the early classics (possible MSR depending on Cav's form), and wouldn't be surprised if he wins Paris-Tours. Could well have a Boonen-esque season.

* but also because I can't see the point in Cav taking on Greipel, he's got bigger fish to fry later this year than get caught up in a silly early-season pi55ing contest that could affect his form building.

[theHog mode] insert self-congratulatory text

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/htc-highroad-relies-on-goss-for-tdu-overall-title [/theHog mode]

 

[taiwan]

If Greipel has his hands full with his former lead out man in the first race of the season, it could be a bit of a blow psychologically. Not that he wasn't better off moving to Omega Pharma anyhow.

 

[auscyclefan94]

lol nope, not at all.

for a guy who didn't record a single victory last year to have odds that shorts is surprising.

Considering his results and reputation I wouldn't bet on him unless his odds were 80+. In reality he has no chance at TDU overall.

@sasquatch
rojas is definitely worth a go. decent odds.

Well this is what The Great Alexander Kristoff said

Kristoff made some waves recently when he said that he felt he could beat Mark Cavendish, the world’s quickest sprinter. “If it all works out, I can beat him,” the Norwegian told Procycling.no.

That last question made no sense whatsoever. Cavendish looks completely bewildered, with good reason.

Laughed at the part how Cav talked down the rivalry between him and Greipel.
The guy is a moron. Period.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Weekly Forecast for Adelaide

Sunday:Sunny 24oC
Tuesday: Sunny 21oC
Wednesday: Sunny 26oC
Thursday (Stirling stage): Sunny 33oC
Friday: Cloudy 29oC
Saturday (Wilunga stage): Sunny 35oC
Sunday: Unknown.

 

[Night Rider]

Greipel for the win followed by Farrar. I would pick Goss in third but I'm guessing he will be used in the lead out train and that Cav and Renshaw get a chance instead.

 

[hughmoore]

That last question made no sense whatsoever. Cavendish looks completely bewildered, with good reason.

Yep, Tomaris was clutching at straws, because Cav wouldnt even mention Greipel by name.

Given his lack of interest in talking up the rivalry to generate interest, cant see Cav getting a big share of the Lance's appearance fee next year.



Hugh

 

[auscyclefan94]

I am not so sure about Greipel. It is a new team and Greipel can get lost a bit from his leadout train. With some big sprinters riding with strong leadout trains, he can not afford to make a mistake.

Andre Greipel Interview

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yep, Tomaris was clutching at straws, because Cav wouldnt even mention Greipel by name.

Given his lack of interest in talking up the rivalry to generate interest, cant see Cav getting a big share of the Lance's appearance fee next year.



Hugh

IN another video today he craps on about how the sprinter has changed.

Tour down under preview

Tomalaris said he had 16 sprinters listed, Kristoff was not listed.

 

[theyoungest]

IN another video today he craps on about how the sprinter has changed.

Tour down under preview

Tomalaris said he had 16 sprinters listed, Kristoff was not listed.

I have watched these guys twice now, and I already want to strangle them. Is that normal?

BTW, I don't really get your comment about Greipel and getting used to his leadout train, as his entire leadout has moved from HTC to Lotto.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I have watched these guys twice now, and I already want to strangle them. Is that normal?

BTW, I don't really get your comment about Greipel and getting used to his leadout train, as his entire leadout has moved from HTC to Lotto.

The getting use to part is incorrect. Thanks for the pick up. I think Greipel gets lost from his train and he won't be able to get out of sticky situations when he's caught behind against Cav and farrar.

Yes it is normal to want to strangle them with. I was glad to hear that Cadel punched Tomo at the tour in 2008.