2010 Giro d'Italia... Who will win?

[auscyclefan94]

The Mortirolo is unrelenting for it's entire length. Zoncolan has a couple of very brief respites, but has sections that are virtually unclimbable, if it's very wet.
The last km of Corones took almost 4 minutes to climb, during the 2008 ITT.
Then, there's always the chance of snow.

Which reminds me, don't forget the Gavia.........
......the decent of which could prove interesting.....

The giro seems to have some sort of history or recent event involved with the towns it goes to.

With the mortirolo, the finish to Aprica will almost nullify it as the final climb is not overly steep and riders will have to go from a long way out to get time on there. People though who wre having a bbad will lose a lot but the main favourites will stick together imo.

The corones tt should be an awesome stage.

 

[blaxland]

Its quite interesting to note that when this thread/pole started most people where picking Vino for the Giro win but now most popular choice is Cadel Evans...Could this possibly mean that Evans has his best chance yet at winning a Gand Tour?Will the TTT play a significant part?And just like others have posted the mountains look awesome this year,hopefully creating attacking type racing.Just cant wait for the START...........

 

[Ferminal]

Utrechtse Heuvelrug

Thanks, I got a good laugh out of that

The giro seems to have some sort of history or recent event involved with the towns it goes to.

With the mortirolo, the finish to Aprica will almost nullify it as the final climb is not overly steep and riders will have to go from a long way out to get time on there. People though who wre having a bbad will lose a lot but the main favourites will stick together imo.

The corones tt should be an awesome stage.

What's happened in the previous times in the same run down from Mortirolo to Aprica? It's about 4% the whole way in, if you drop time on the Mortirolo and don't have a team, it's still going to be very tough (to win back time on the final drag). It just depends on the race really, hopefully it's not a Vuelta 2009 repeat.

 

[Escarabajo]

The giro seems to have some sort of history or recent event involved with the towns it goes to.

With the mortirolo, the finish to Aprica will almost nullify it as the final climb is not overly steep and riders will have to go from a long way out to get time on there. People though who wre having a bbad will lose a lot but the main favourites will stick together imo.

The corones tt should be an awesome stage.

The previous time they did that with Simoni and Baso the descent and final ascent was a non factor. So whatever happens in the Mortirolo might stay in the final run to Aprica. So I am not sure it what you are saying will apply.

 

[Ferminal]

This is what happened in 2006.

1. ITA BASSO Ivan CSC 6h51'15"
2. ITA SIMONI Gilberto SDV 01'17"
3. ITA CUNEGO Damiano LAM 02'51"
4. ESP GUTIERREZ CATALUÑA Jose Enrique PHO 02'51"
5. ITA SAVOLDELLI Paolo DSC 06'03"
6. ITA PIEPOLI Leonardo SDV 06'03"
7. FRA CASAR Sandy FDJ 07'26"
8. ESP GARATE CEPA Juan Manuel QSI 07'26"
9. COL PEÑA GRISALES Victor Hugo PHO 07'26"
10. ITA CARUSO Giampaolo LSW 07'26"
11. ESP OSA EIZAGUIRRE Aitor LSW 07'26"
12. ESP VILA ERRANDONEA Francisco Javier LAM 07'26"
13. ESP RUBIERA VIGIL Jose Luis DSC 07'26"
14. ITA PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 10'11"
15. FRA HALGAND Patrice C.A 10'11"

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6435

Some chunky gaps if you ask me...

 

[auscyclefan94]

This is what happened in 2006.

1. ITA BASSO Ivan CSC 6h51'15"
2. ITA SIMONI Gilberto SDV 01'17"
3. ITA CUNEGO Damiano LAM 02'51"
4. ESP GUTIERREZ CATALUÑA Jose Enrique PHO 02'51"
5. ITA SAVOLDELLI Paolo DSC 06'03"
6. ITA PIEPOLI Leonardo SDV 06'03"
7. FRA CASAR Sandy FDJ 07'26"
8. ESP GARATE CEPA Juan Manuel QSI 07'26"
9. COL PEÑA GRISALES Victor Hugo PHO 07'26"
10. ITA CARUSO Giampaolo LSW 07'26"
11. ESP OSA EIZAGUIRRE Aitor LSW 07'26"
12. ESP VILA ERRANDONEA Francisco Javier LAM 07'26"
13. ESP RUBIERA VIGIL Jose Luis DSC 07'26"
14. ITA PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 10'11"
15. FRA HALGAND Patrice C.A 10'11"

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6435

Some chunky gaps if you ask me...

I am surprised. From the top of the climb to aprica it is around 30km. With the descent and the final drag you would think that a group of riders would be able to work together to reel riders in.

 

[auscyclefan94]

BMC for il giro (based on what i have read, unofficial)
Evans
Morabito - can tt, can climb
Schar - time trialler
Stalder - sprinter
Bookwalter - time trialller and can climb
Stewart - can climb
Zahner - can tt
Wyss - sprinter
Kohler - all rounder, good at short tt's

 

[El Imbatido]

BMC for il giro (based on what i have read, unofficial)
Evans
Morabito - can tt, can climb
Schar - time trialler
Stalder - sprinter
Bookwalter - time trialller and can climb
Stewart - can climb
Zahner - can tt
Wyss - sprinter
Kohler - all rounder, good at short tt's

From looking at that team it looks like BMC know they are going to be a bit weak in the mountains so they are stacking their team with their better time trialers to try an minimise the losses in the TTT.

 

[andrew_s]

I am surprised. From the top of the climb to aprica it is around 30km. With the descent and the final drag you would think that a group of riders would be able to work together to reel riders in.

Riders will be going over the top as individuals, and forming a group would take time.

 

[auscyclefan94]

From looking at that team it looks like BMC know they are going to be a bit weak in the mountains so they are stacking their team with their better time trialers to try an minimise the losses in the TTT.

I think you are right. On steephill, they said the ttt course is not overly descisive. lets hope so! last years ttt liquigas came 8th and cervelo came 11th. i thought with the team they had they would of featured a bit higher than that. though this ttt is twice as long.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Going back a bit. Aprica is deceptive.
In 2006, Simoni and Basso attacked and got away on the Mortirolo, but the chasers died on the drag to Aprica.
Look at those time gaps. They are huge.

I watched the GP Industria, last night. Although the editing was crap and missed the key moment.
Pellizotti attacked on the final climb and took a huge gap. Blew up the field completely. Riders all over the place. He literally flew.
A group of 7 riders eventually formed and set off in chase. Everybody worked flat out. It took them all of the downhill and 7kms of flat, to catch him.
He still managed to sprint for the podium.

From anonymous last week, to quite awesome, this week.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Basso's giro form is worrying.
34 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:02:28

You would think he would finish in the main group with ease.

 

[theyoungest]

Basso's giro form is worrying.
34 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:02:28

You would think he would finish in the main group with ease.

After Spilak's attack (he was in the front group then) it looked like he didn't really bother anymore. Not too worrying.

 

[Bagster]

I vote Cadel. Reason being is that he has no chance in the tdf and he will make the most of the Giro. Not sure if his team is up to it though but time will tell.

 

[auscyclefan94]

lotto have put a strong team in.

Omega Pharma-Lotto for the 2010 Giro d'Italia: Jan Bakelants, Adam Blythe, Francis De Greef, Michiel Elijzen, Olivier Kaisen, Sebastian Lang, Matthew Lloyd, Daniel Moreno and Charlie Wegelius.

they could do well. de greef and lloyd are strong climbers to help moreno and wegelius has looked very strong at romandie. moreno could top 5.

 

[theyoungest]

lotto have put a strong team in.

Omega Pharma-Lotto for the 2010 Giro d'Italia: Jan Bakelants, Adam Blythe, Francis De Greef, Michiel Elijzen, Olivier Kaisen, Sebastian Lang, Matthew Lloyd, Daniel Moreno and Charlie Wegelius.

they could do well. de greef and lloyd are strong climbers to help moreno and wegelius has looked very strong at romandie. moreno could top 5.

Lotto: a decent team without a leader. You know which leader could use a decent team?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Basso's giro form is worrying.
34 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:02:28

You would think he would finish in the main group with ease.

It's a giro warm-up race for basso, he is not there to win it, but rather tweak his form to perfection.

I wouldn't be making any conclusions from romandie. Menchov didn't top ten at romandie last yea, but still creamed his competition at the giro.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Lotto: a decent team without a leader. You know which leader could use a decent team?

You mean Shytehole lotto?

Santambrogio is back in the team! Good news!

 

[Andrichuk]

I read in a interview on some cycling website that Barry and Wiggins were the team leaders for Sky.

Ive never watched him in a GT but if Barry doesn't sit in the front and pull for half the race and has riders working for him, Id say hes capable of a top 10 or 20 on good form with a team behind him.

 

[auscyclefan94]

BMC for il giro (based on what i have read, unofficial)
Evans
Morabito - can tt, can climb
Schar - time trialler
Stalder - sprinter
Bookwalter - time trialller and can climb
Stewart - can climb
Zahner - can tt
Wyss - sprinter
Kohler - all rounder, good at short tt's

Stalder or Stewart will come out of the team for Santambrogio

 

[Andrichuk]

Why would they bring 2 mediocre sprinters? I understand its good to get young riders experience but the Giro could be the closest shot BMC has to winning a GT this year.

 

[issoisso]

Stalder is a pure climber, not a sprinter. Morabito isn't much of a TTer, more of a climber.

 

[Andrichuk]

Ah I was just basing all of my information off-

Originally Posted by auscyclefan94
BMC for il giro (based on what i have read, unofficial)
Evans
Morabito - can tt, can climb
Schar - time trialler
Stalder - sprinter
Bookwalter - time trialller and can climb
Stewart - can climb
Zahner - can tt
Wyss - sprinter
Kohler - all rounder, good at short tt's

 

[auscyclefan94]

Why would they bring 2 mediocre sprinters? I understand its good to get young riders experience but the Giro could be the closest shot BMC has to winning a GT this year.

Stalder can climb a bit, but i think Louder will be in so here is my redited bit.

BMC for il giro (based on what i have read, unofficial)
Evans
Morabito - can tt, can climb
Schar - time trialler
Stalder - sprinter
Bookwalter - time trialller and can climb
Louder - can climb
Zahner - can tt
Santambrogio - climber
Kohler - all rounder, good at short tt's

Those two sprinters may of been in because of their experience and that they have the endurance over some of the younger climbers on the squad.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Stalder is a pure climber, not a sprinter. Morabito isn't much of a TTer, more of a climber.

Florian Stalder

Yes he can climb a bit but he describes himself as a sprinter and a classics rider.