2010 Giro d'Italia... Who will win?

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Who will win the 2010 Giro?

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Just looked at betfair and chris anker sorensen is equal sixth favourite for the win! He's nowhere near that high up in the top 3 and top 6 standings though. Is Sorensen likely to be the GC man for Saxobank is the Schlecks arent going? Could sneak into the top 10 perhaps?
 
Frosty said:
Just looked at betfair and chris anker sorensen is equal sixth favourite for the win! He's nowhere near that high up in the top 3 and top 6 standings though. Is Sorensen likely to be the GC man for Saxobank is the Schlecks arent going? Could sneak into the top 10 perhaps?

Probably hoping to make a mint off casual fans who recognise Team Saxo Bank as being a top team without any real recognition of the riders and the relevant races. The same way they'll make a mint off people betting on Lance in July.
 
Libertine Seguros said:
Probably hoping to make a mint off casual fans who recognise Team Saxo Bank as being a top team without any real recognition of the riders and the relevant races. The same way they'll make a mint off people betting on Lance in July.

I just checked.... Betfair also seems to be taking bets on Ricco to win, and getting shorter odds to win than Garzelli, Cunego or Sorensen.

I know that they're trying to capitalize on stupid people, but seriously, isn't this (taking bets on Ricco even though its well known he wont be taking part) even ethical for a bookies?
 
Frosty said:
Who sets the odds though? Isnt it members of the general public?

No... The sports book employs experts who set the line, although the line can shift if there is a lot of action on one specific bet. This happens especially in US-style money line/point spread betting, where the book ideally wants equal action on both sides of the line (so they cancel out) and take the vig. So if one side of the money line is getting significantly more wagers than the other side the line will probably be shifted towards the other side, hopefully creating an equilibrium point.
 
Mar 11, 2009
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I voted for Vino, more wishful thinking ...
Garzelli would be good if he won it.. he should at least be there on the massive climbs.I am sure there will be some other people show.
It will be entertaining for sure.
 
Jul 27, 2009
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Moondance said:
No... The sports book employs experts who set the line, although the line can shift if there is a lot of action on one specific bet. This happens especially in US-style money line/point spread betting, where the book ideally wants equal action on both sides of the line (so they cancel out) and take the vig. So if one side of the money line is getting significantly more wagers than the other side the line will probably be shifted towards the other side, hopefully creating an equilibrium point.

As I understand it, Betfair is a betting exchange, and as such it *is* members of the general public who set the odds by as individuals posting what odds they're prepared to offer, and finding another punter who's prepared to accept the bet.

I suppose you've always got the option of simply looking at the bookies' odds and making a bet with Betfair if the offered odds are better. That said, I reckon well-informed punters have a better chance by making bets on specific riders to lose than to win. It's a much easier proposition to get inside info on a rider being much weaker than the market believes, than to get inside information that a rider is much stronger than the market believes.
 
rgmerk said:
As I understand it, Betfair is a betting exchange, and as such it *is* members of the general public who set the odds by as individuals posting what odds they're prepared to offer, and finding another punter who's prepared to accept the bet.

I suppose you've always got the option of simply looking at the bookies' odds and making a bet with Betfair if the offered odds are better. That said, I reckon well-informed punters have a better chance by making bets on specific riders to lose than to win. It's a much easier proposition to get inside info on a rider being much weaker than the market believes, than to get inside information that a rider is much stronger than the market believes.

Hmmm... Didn't know that about them. Not that I ever really bet on anything, so I wasn't familiar at all with Betfair... Its certainly an interesting system,
 
Apr 8, 2009
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Long time no post :)

For the Giro - I would like to see Evens come up but its going to be tough with so many other riders who can win

As for Vino I also dont get how a rider busted for doping can be this popular........seems like stupidity to me
 
Mar 11, 2009
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Maybe you did not get to see Vino race before, he was an exciting and courageous racer. This is probably why people are his fans.
To say people are "stupid" to support professional cyclists because of doping convictions seems like a oxymoron..
 
Apr 8, 2009
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the guy still doped - and its easier to push yourself longer when your all doped up

whats to say he isnt still and just making sure he doesnt get caught like last time

To be fair vino isnt the only one who got caught, spent 2 years and now are back and racing - IMHO they shouldnt be allowed to come back in the first place
 
sportzchick said:
Long time no post :)

For the Giro - I would like to see Evens come up but its going to be tough with so many other riders who can win

As for Vino I also dont get how a rider busted for doping can be this popular........seems like stupidity to me

Would you also say that Eddy Merckx cannot be considered the greatest rider ever because of his doping past?
 
Apr 8, 2009
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Id be a hyprocrite if I didnt say yes and lambasted if I did - but I will say yes regardless

What I like to know is how long can the effects of the drugs be long term - I highly doubt it would stop as soon as the injections stoped

This is more for the doping board not here - we should be talking about the Giro
 
have to go with sastre for this one because he seems to only get better as grand tours go on and this has all the hardest climbing in the final week. don't think evans will be able to stay with him on zoncolan or tonale

also real interested to see how serpa does for serramenti and pozzovivo for colnago. both of them can climb with the best on a good day, but i dont know if they can do it for a three week tour

i know its been discussed before, but who is caisse's leader for the giro? i know bruseghin will be racing, but is uran? and which of those two is the leader?
 
sportzchick said:
Id be a hyprocrite if I didnt say yes and lambasted if I did - but I will say yes regardless

What I like to know is how long can the effects of the drugs be long term - I highly doubt it would stop as soon as the injections stoped

This is more for the doping board not here - we should be talking about the Giro

Okay... I can respect a man who sticks to his guns, even if they're firing blanks :p:p:p

Also you started it about doping:rolleyes:
 
Apr 8, 2009
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true and I apologie for my part

And since when someone has the word chick in their username is a male?

Also how is having a tough stance on dopers, firing blanks - everyone too soft on them IMHO
 
Mar 10, 2009
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aarnold517 said:
i know its been discussed before, but who is caisse's leader for the giro? i know bruseghin will be racing, but is uran? and which of those two is the leader?

AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey Costa Rica
ARROYO DURAN David Spain
BRUSEGHIN Marzio Italy
JEANNESSON Arnold France
KIRYIENKA Vasil Belarus
LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo Spain
LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto Spain
URAN Rigoberto Colombia
ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier Spain
 
Apr 8, 2009
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aarnold517 said:
have to go with sastre for this one because he seems to only get better as grand tours go on and this has all the hardest climbing in the final week. don't think evans will be able to stay with him on zoncolan or tonale

also real interested to see how serpa does for serramenti and pozzovivo for colnago. both of them can climb with the best on a good day, but i dont know if they can do it for a three week tour

i know its been discussed before, but who is caisse's leader for the giro? i know bruseghin will be racing, but is uran? and which of those two is the leader?
sastre hasnt had alot of cycling though - either its going to work for him and he will be fresh or against him without racing miles in his legs

in saying that it will proablly work for him

One worry I have for Cadel right now is that is his team being strecthed too far with both Giro and TDF? Id like to see him focus on the Giro this year and build for a TDF assult next year
 
sportzchick said:
true and I apologie for my part

And since when someone has the word chick in their username is a male?

Also how is having a tough stance on dopers, firing blanks - everyone too soft on them IMHO

My apologies madam :)p). Give that I don't really expect anyone on a sports forum to be a member of the fairer sex, I'm not really on the lookout for clues. And since I don't really pay attention to user names anyway thats a pretty obvious one I missed... Luckily for me I'm studying to become a lawyer not a detective

And the who 'firing blanks' thing was more a continuation of the 'sticking to your guns' metaphor. You stick to your guns when you say Merckx is unworthy of consideration, to me thats, with all due respect, a bunch of BS... Ergo you fire blanks. Twas not a comment on your stance on doping, but your dissing of St. Eddy ;)
 
Apr 8, 2009
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Moondance said:
My apologies madam :)p). Give that I don't really expect anyone on a sports forum to be a member of the fairer sex, I'm not really on the lookout for clues. And since I don't really pay attention to user names anyway thats a pretty obvious one I missed... Luckily for me I'm studying to become a lawyer not a detective

And the who 'firing blanks' thing was more a continuation of the 'sticking to your guns' metaphor. You stick to your guns when you say Merckx is unworthy of consideration, to me thats, with all due respect, a bunch of BS... Ergo you fire blanks. Twas not a comment on your stance on doping, but your dissing of St. Eddy ;)
thats OK

Well if I had a dislike if cheats/dopers full stop and then went on to praise Merckx would I not be a hyprocrite???? I might be nieave or stupid (or probally both!:p) but I cant stomach someone who is a doper then to be called the best there is as you would start to wonder what was done legit and what was acchived thanks to other means

Anways I rather read what you think about the Giro and me see Cadel win it :D
 
rgmerk said:
As I understand it, Betfair is a betting exchange, and as such it *is* members of the general public who set the odds by as individuals posting what odds they're prepared to offer, and finding another punter who's prepared to accept the bet.

I suppose you've always got the option of simply looking at the bookies' odds and making a bet with Betfair if the offered odds are better. That said, I reckon well-informed punters have a better chance by making bets on specific riders to lose than to win. It's a much easier proposition to get inside info on a rider being much weaker than the market believes, than to get inside information that a rider is much stronger than the market believes.

You just pick your odds, and the system will match them if there is enough backing on the other runners to get you the price you want on your runner. Betfair aren't bookmakers, they just take a commission from each bet.

People would just be speculating on Ricco.

I'm hoping Cuddles wins again tonight so Pellizotti can drift a bit further... Before Fleche and Trentino, Pellizotti was a $3.30 favourite (Evans was $3.50)
 
sportzchick said:
thats OK

Well if I had a dislike if cheats/dopers full stop and then went on to praise Merckx would I not be a hyprocrite???? I might be nieave or stupid (or probally both!:p) but I cant stomach someone who is a doper then to be called the best there is as you would start to wonder what was done legit and what was acchived thanks to other means

Anways I rather read what you think about the Giro and me see Cadel win it :D

My answer to that is different times, different standards. If you want your heroes, be they past or present, to be holier than the Pope (to use a Dutch expression) you're in the wrong sport.

Either way, I'll be rooting for Cadel as well, actually. Any dislike of him I feign because it's FAAAR to much fun to rile up our resident Cadel nut-hugger (and it isn't you :p).

I'm kind of liking the him against the world narrative that he's been working on his whole career, always trying to win completely by himself, isolated from decent teammates. But I don't think he will. He'll certainly lose time in the TTT, probably a minute if not more. He's not going to have anyone to help him in the mountains. Then Liquigas will come fully loaded, with two heavy hitters, a super domestique like Szmynd, and other great guys like Zaugg or Quinziato... I agree with you though, it'll be serious fun to watch, and it would be a great performance if Cadel could pull it off.
 
Apr 8, 2009
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I dont expect them to be holier - its an argument ive had with many that do

I expect them to play within in rules and spirit of the sport though

ive noticed the passionate fans of Cadel get way to riled up - I am a fan of Cadel (althouth a distant 2nd to Stuey :D) but I dont mind if some hate him........ If we all thought the same, it would be boring wouldnt it!

LOL at the nut hugger comment :D
 

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