2011 Criterium du Dauphine Libere - 5th to 12th of June, 2.WT

[Parrulo]

It'd be wise to take your own advise then.

meh most likely BV will vanish as from this forums as soon as he realizes TM can't climb

he wanted to make a bet along those lines a few months ago so it wouldn't surprise me

 

[El Pistolero]

I really don't get where this Tony Martin climbing hype comes from? He won Paris-Nice on the most dull course ever, there were hardly any mountains in it. He got dropped quite easily when things went a little bit uphill at Pais Vasco and Romandie.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Plus for a guy who's best ever GT result is 35th in the Tour de France 2009 I really don't get where the confidence comes from that he will ride top 10.

He was 128th in his first GT (Giro 2008)
35th in the TDF 2009
and then 137th in TDF 2010

The jump to a top 10 is a bit sudden?

 

[El Pistolero]

Plus for a guy who's best ever GT result is 35th in the Tour de France 2009 I really don't get where the confidence comes from that he will ride top 10.

He was 128th in his first GT (Giro 2008)
35th in the TDF 2009
and then 137th in TDF 2010

The jump to a top 10 is a bit sudden?

Well, Contador went from 31st to 1st

But yeah, I've never seen real climb potential in him.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

well maybe, just maybe (like TJVG who shows waaay more climbing potential though) Martin might get a top 10 in the Dauphine (thanks to a long TT), but no way in hell he'll get a top 10 in the Tour (or any GT for that matter)

 

[Lanark]

We shouldn't exaggerate, Martin isn't a terrible climber. In the 2009 Tour he did quite well on the stages to Arcalis and Verbier (not the toughest mountains, but hey, it's the Tour). In de Tour de Suisse that year, and some races this spring (among which was Paris-Nice), he has shown some reasonable climbing talent.

So far not enough to be anywhere near a Tour contender, but if a guy like Luis Leon Sanchez can finish 11th, and Hesjedal 7th, a top-10 shouldn't be impossible (and if Peter Velits can finish third in the Vuelta, Martin should be able to do ok in that race too).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Peter Velits is actually far more of a natural climber. So I don't know why you compare Martin to him.

If you want to compare Martin, compare him to Thomas Dekker, almost 100% identical type of rider.

 

[Mellow Velo]

For the Dauphine, it all boils down to can he limit his time loses on the 2 MTFs, to 2-3 minutes over the 5 best climbers, if he is to get a top 5 spot. For that his the sum of his gain in the ITT.

For the Tour, he will be expected to pull the HTC choo-choo for 100kms or so, on each flat stage.

As for the TDF GC, he is a non-starter, regardless of Cav duty. The idea that he might somehow live with the likes of Contador, Schleck, Gesink etc in the mountains, is laughable.

 

[Lanark]

Peter Velits is actually far more of a natural climber. So I don't know why you compare Martin to him.

If you want to compare Martin, compare him to Thomas Dekker, almost 100% identical type of rider.

What does 'a more natural climber' mean? Certainly not good results in mountain races/stages, because Velits' palmares in anything with a long climb before the 2010 Vuelta was a loot more poor that Martins.

Why do I compare them? Well, they ride for HTC, which, along with Garmin, has the habit of suddenly having complete nobody's when it comes to GT's suddenly finishing in the top-10. They had a pretty much identical 2009 Tour. They both are (well, in Velits case, turned into) ITT specialists who have to limit their damage in the mountains.

The biggest difference between them is that Velits was mostly a one-day specialist, who could suddenly climb, while Martin is a ITT specialist.

(I'm in no way suggesting that because Velits finished 3rd last year in the Vuelta Martin will suddenly ride a guaranteed top-10 in a GT, I'm only saying similair things have happened before, so don't rule it out, just because Bavoonrider is an @sshole).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lanark, did you ever see the Germany Tour of 2007? And especially the climb of the Rettenbachferner?

Guess you didn't judging by your assesment of pre-2010 Peter Velits.
He wasn't even full-pro back then because he was at Wiesenhof, yet he hung on extremely long until Voigt/Gesink/Leipheimer blew it apart.

Ofcourse, riding at Milram didn't help his cause after that. Probably the worst team to end up the past few years. Luckily they are gone now and Velits blossomed at HTC

 

[Parrulo]

Peter Velits is actually far more of a natural climber. So I don't know why you compare Martin to him.

If you want to compare Martin, compare him to Thomas Dekker, almost 100% identical type of rider.

i have only seen thomas ride a few times if i am very honest but for some reason i thought that he was an half decent climber.

Lanark, did you ever see the Germany Tour of 2007? And especially the climb of the Rettenbachferner?

Guess you didn't judging by your assesment of pre-2010 Peter Velits.
He wasn't even full-pro back then because he was at Wiesenhof, yet he hung on extremely long until Voigt/Gesink/Leipheimer blew it apart.

Ofcourse, riding at Milram didn't help his cause after that. Probably the worst team to end up the past few years. Luckily they are gone now and Velits blossomed at HTC

indeed what were the velits brothers thinking when they went to milram? maybe they thought they would lead the team? =/

 

[Lanark]

Lanark, did you ever see the Germany Tour of 2007? And especially the climb of the Rettenbachferner?

Guess you didn't judging by your assesment of pre-2010 Peter Velits.
He wasn't even full-pro back then because he was at Wiesenhof, yet he hung on extremely long until Voigt/Gesink/Leipheimer blew it apart.

Ofcourse, riding at Milram didn't help his cause after that. Probably the worst team to end up the past few years. Luckily they are gone now and Velits blossomed at HTC

I did see the 2007 stage to the Rettenbachferner, but I'll be honest and admit I couldn't remember his 17th place in that stage, over 3 minutes behind David Lopez. And no, if I did remember that performance, I wouldn't have suggested he could ride top-10 in a GT based on that.

But really, I fail to see how that's more impressive than finishing 16th to Arcalis (finishing in the same group as Schleck, Evans, Armstrong etc.), or finishing 12th on Verbier in the 2009 Tour.

I'm not saying it's likely Martin will do well (certainly not in this Tour, far too many mountains, and not enough ITT kilometers), but I don't see why he couldn't do well in a 2009-like Tour, or a weak Vuelta. I certainly don't think he has shown much less climbing promise than Wiggins, Vandevelde, Hesjedal or Velits did when they suddenly bursted on the scene (to quickly disappear as well)

 

[Angliru]

Obviously........leading the Giro and TDF last year means he is finished. He got sick in one and crashed in the other. I am not saying he would have won either race but he would have podiumed the Giro and done much better in the TDF without the elbow problem. We will see how finished he is. If you want to pick a rider who is finished try Carlos Sastre. Retirement can't come soon enough.

I was going to defend Evans from Bavarianrider's post but this post made me change my mind.

Sastre like Evans has had some health issues this season that have affected his preparation. I think the fact that he was able to finish on the podium of San Sebastian last year, is testament to the fact that rumours of his demise are a tad premature. I'd see what he does in the Vuelta before giving up totally on Sastre. I admit though that his top 5's in the grand tours may be long gone but he is still capable of getting the odd stage win in the grand tours and with sudden ability to compete in one day races maybe he'll be able to make a brief transformation before his retirement and win a significant one day race. I'll just rub it in a bit and remind the Evans' fans that Sastre could retire today with the one thing Evans covets more than anything else in the sport.

 

[Angliru]

Hypothetically, lets say that is true. Well at least Cadel has been a gc rider. Martin will never top 10 in a GT. He can't climb even though you may think he can in your own little world.

Never is a very, very long time, especially for a rider with Martin's youth, potential, class and professionalism. I think should he escape from the shackles of the HTC/Cavendish wagontrain, he'll be capable of finishing in the top 10 of the Tour. As long as he's strapped to Cav's train on every potential sprint stage, he'll never be able to fully realize his potential.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

We shouldn't exaggerate, Martin isn't a terrible climber. In the 2009 Tour he did quite well on the stages to Arcalis and Verbier (not the toughest mountains, but hey, it's the Tour). In de Tour de Suisse that year, and some races this spring (among which was Paris-Nice), he has shown some reasonable climbing talent.

So far not enough to be anywhere near a Tour contender, but if a guy like Luis Leon Sanchez can finish 11th, and Hesjedal 7th, a top-10 shouldn't be impossible (and if Peter Velits can finish third in the Vuelta, Martin should be able to do ok in that race too).

Reasonable climbing talent is a good description. The 2009 Tour de Suisse was neutered with the intention of the home win, and Paris-Nice this year was the flattest edition we've seen in years, with the longest ITT we've seen in it in a while.

Both were races which suited Martin down to a tee. Neither the Tour nor Vuelta appear to be suited to Martin's strengths. Can he hang on in the climbs and maybe scrape the bottom end of the top 10? Sure, as long as he isn't asked to expend too much in the sprint train. But memories of Kirchen in yellow and Velits on the GC podium the day before Bola Del Mundo make me think this is too much to ask at High Road. Let's remember that Luís León managed that GC spot because on one of the toughest stages Caisse sent three men up the road to try and force themselves into the GC mix. I don't see HTC doing anything as gauche and risky as that, besides they'll need to shepherd Cav through those stages anyway. Martin may be able to get into the break and gain time that way, but it won't really be by HTC forcing it.

 

[Angliru]

Amazing at some people's confidence in their favourite riders.

I promised that I would be more civil and less confrontational.

 

[Angliru]

Well i have two solid explanations for the two wrong letters. What more do you want?
T is just right above F and Y/I is very interchangeable in names.

I thought you were joking at first but now you're simply insulting our intelligence. Let it go.

 

[theyoungest]

If you want to compare Martin, compare him to Thomas Dekker, almost 100% identical type of rider.

Tony Martin is one of the best hilly classics riders of his generation? Somehow I expected that being a fan of Thomas Dekker, you'd know what type of rider he is. I really don't see many similarities, apart from the fact that they're both excellent time trialists.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dekker was most known for his succes in Romandie/Tirreno and doing well in 1-week races with a time trial.

Not for his classics campaign in 2008

 

[theyoungest]

Dekker was most known for his succes in Romandie/Tirreno and doing well in 1-week races with a time trial.

Not for his classics campaign in 2008

... so they're the same type of rider?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How can you not get this??

Dekker's forté was his time trial and hanging on in mountains.

He won easy 1-week tours like Romandie (only 1 mtf) and Tirreno (there wasn't a hard mountain stage or montelupone in the year Dekker won it)
Martin is bang on the same and won on the same time of courses, also due to his ITT, and hanging on in the mountains.

They are the same type of rider, very strong time triallists who can clamp on in the mountains as long as it's not too hard and 3 weeks long

 

[greenedge]

Evans needs to win this to get hope for rankings. Scarponi and Contador have moved ahead.

 

[Ryaguas]

I have a big hunch that Coppel will do great here... He is still building form for Le Tour but that ITT will help him alot... Also this course wiill be a nice test for his climbing form...

BTW... a bit OffTopic but... What has been of Dekker's case with Garmin?

 

[dlwssonic]

Evans needs to win this to get hope for rankings. Scarponi and Contador have moved ahead.

evans still has the tour and the vuelta so no need to worry. Anyway I dont think he is that bothered by rankings.

 

[Bennyl]

Evans needs to win this to get hope for rankings. Scarponi and Contador have moved ahead.

Although he would gain nice kudos at year end, I doubt Cadel could even care less about the ranking going into this race.

His interest would be to test his level in the time trial and on the climbs for the upcoming Tour.

Being a fan of his, I couldn't care about his year end ranking either. I'd be happy to see him compete for 3 weeks in the Tour on a level with all other GC competitors. If he more or less kept up with everyone bar schleklet and Alberto on the climbs, took hold of any opportunities that arose on hillier and wind effected stages and raced a top time trial and took a top 5 (and maybe podium-fingers crossed) i'd be more than happy. But mostly, as long as he can compete without injuries, crashes, the media stepping on his dog for 3 weeks, all would be good.

Even if he wins Dauphine, if he doesn't achieve at least the abovementioned in the Tour, I think he'd be disappointed somewhat, IMHO.