2011 Tour de France Stage 16 (18/7/2011): Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux - Gap, 162.5km

[Mellow Velo]

Can't see any point in Voeckler trying to shake things up - I think at this point he'll be sitting back and taking it easy, saving as much as possible for the Alps. I doubt he believes yet that he can actually win the Tour, but after his ride through the Pyrenees, he must feel confident that he's got a shot at finishing pretty high up on GC. His job now is to try to keep yellow for as long as possible through the Alps, which means most likely he'll be riding defensively from here on, at least until he loses yellow. No point in expending energy in these transition stages unless he absolutely has to.

So, he discards his natural aggression, on ground that is in his favour, to follow the uber-conservative tactics employed by all the other GC sheep?
Then, when he loses the jersey in the Alps, or in the ITT, he has also run out of his final week opportunities and finishes 5th or 6th, instead of a possible podium?
Must be the Tour we are talking about, then.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Don't forget it's the 3rd week.

An easy climb can still turn into a massacre.
Remember Giro Macugnana. A very very easy climb (easier than montevergine which had a 20 men sprint), but differences even with the leaders...

 

[VeloCity]

So, he discards his natural aggression, on ground that is in his favour, to follow the uber-conservative tactics employed by all the other GC sheep?
Then, when he loses the jersey in the Alps, or in the ITT, he has also run out of his final week opportunities and finishes 5th or 6th, instead of a possible podium?
Must be the Tour we are talking about, then.

There's pretty much zero chance that Voeckler's going to be allowed any wiggle room whatsoever so a stage win over the next few days is out of the question, so at this point I don't think he really has much choice but to focus on keeping yellow as long as possible. Besides, he came through the Pyrenees in pretty good shape, still has an almost 2 minute cushion on the favorites, and while I still don't think he'll win the Tour, stranger things have happened.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

According to the Dutch news there is some really bad weather in the forecast the coming days for Southern France. With possible snow on Thursday at some parts. So if it starts raining tomorrow already, you get the situation where either nobody takes risks or one contender does, forcing all others to react.

 

[roundabout]

It should be slightly better by the time the really high mountains come on Thursday and Friday.

 

[liamito]

I think we could see Hesjedal in a break in the next two stages, I'd think 16 would be a better bet.

Hesjedal FTW!

Is he feeling better? If so, I agree.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Letour confirm unseasonably awful weather for this very dry part of France.

 

[SirLes]

I can't see Gilbert winning this. For that to happen he either has to be in the inevitable break or the peloton have to be together at the base of the climb. The first won't happen because HTC won't let it and the second won't happen because OPL won't be able to reel in the break on their own. Only hope is if several big teams miss the break and help to chase but I don't think it's likely.

 

[Granville57]

Gap has one really bad day of weather forecast in the next 10 days..............and it's tomorrow.
Heavy rain, with local thunder storms.
Could mean a really tortuous descent and may well mean
that the break of the day should produce the stage winner.

According to the Dutch news there is some really bad weather in the forecast the coming days for Southern France. With possible snow on Thursday at some parts.

Please, please, please, please, please!

Letour confirm unseasonably awful weather for this very dry part of France.

This really could be a game changer. If things get really nasty, the weather will be the story of the day.

No one can predict what will happen on Tuesday — when they face predicted torrential rainstorms laced with strong winds and temperatures in the 50s or low 60s (low-teens Celsius) during stage 16. Up to an inch of rain is forecast for Tuesday’s finish in Gap.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/07/news/inside-the-tour-with-john-wilcockson-calm-before-the-alpine-storm_184705

 

[Gingerale]

gilbert or even thor could win if it's raining!

revenge of FDJ - sandy casar for the stage. ll sanchez, ee, frenchies in the breakaway....movistar, astana, radio shack and sky in it.

GC defensive tactic faves will keep it the same, if at all possible. but it should be a new level of high anxiety for maintaining defensive tactics the last week

voeckler keeps yellow another.

samu chasing polka dots could add to the defensive gc faves nerves:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sanchez ... ur-victory

samu is a contador fan

go gilbert! wishing for him to get the green jersey back from cavendish.

 

[maxmartin]

Phil
get more points

 

[jens_attacks]

omega should go like this: put vanendert in the breakaway,if the breakaway will succeed,you got the win,he will drop everyone on the climb.
if the breakaway doesn't succeeed,phil will deliver.

 

[Dedelou]

Can't see any point in Voeckler trying to shake things up - I think at this point he'll be sitting back and taking it easy, saving as much as possible for the Alps. I doubt he believes yet that he can actually win the Tour, but after his ride through the Pyrenees, he must feel confident that he's got a shot at finishing pretty high up on GC. His job now is to try to keep yellow for as long as possible through the Alps, which means most likely he'll be riding defensively from here on, at least until he loses yellow. No point in expending energy in these transition stages unless he absolutely has to.

I am not criticizing what you say here .. just basically following your thoughts .. Once a rider sees a chance to get on the podium he has to follow the strategy that leads to what so many here have called " boring riding " : That is conservatively watching each other and not attack much.. Isn't it sort of ironic in Voekler's case that he is where he is now because he did the opposite. Could it be that the best way to finish this Tour in the podium is to continue to defy the conventional wisdom?

 

[Dedelou]

So, he discards his natural aggression, on ground that is in his favour, to follow the uber-conservative tactics employed by all the other GC sheep?
Then, when he loses the jersey in the Alps, or in the ITT, he has also run out of his final week opportunities and finishes 5th or 6th, instead of a possible podium?
Must be the Tour we are talking about, then.

me was thinking the same thing but you said it .. oh so much better.

 

[dgodave]

...This really could be a game changer. If things get really nasty, the weather will be the story of the day....

Please please please NO. I want the story of the day to be something else...
.
Plus, I want good shots of chateaux and eglises.
.

 

[El Pistolero]

omega should go like this: put vanendert in the breakaway,if the breakaway will succeed,you got the win,he will drop everyone on the climb.
if the breakaway doesn't succeeed,phil will deliver.

The carrot boys want to go after the Polkadots jersey sadly.

 

[Big Doopie]

as it stands voeckler doesn't need time on anyone. he needs to conserve before the two MTFs.

he will only attack if evans attacks.

evans won't attack as the only person he needs to gain time on is voeckler and he will hardly do that going downhill. he has to hope that voeckler snaps a little on one of the MTFs.

so neither voeckler or evans will waste energy attacking downhill.

unless someone else tries to go -- threatening their position.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

This is not the stage for Vanendert to be in the break. He needs to be in the break to Pinerolo and Alpe, or Galibier and Alpe. Samuel is not going to be given any rope by the other GC contenders, so all his points have to come from stage finishes. Surely he isn't going to win both because everybody is looking at each other, so the 40 points available pre-MTF on stage 18 and the 30 points available pre-MTF on stage 19 look like ripe for the picking for Vanendert.

 

[Gingerale]

omega should go like this: put vanendert in the breakaway,if the breakaway will succeed,you got the win,he will drop everyone on the climb.
if the breakaway doesn't succeeed,phil will deliver.

i like that a lot! but i think vanendert is now too marked, tho lower priority than samu, even if samu is saying he's fine with polka dots. thinking defensively - jelle is dangerous in - maybe even in higher altitude alps? i don't know his strengths. but i wouldn't let him go, if i was voeckler or cadel/basso. maybe the schlecks would let jelle go i don't get the schlecks. surprise me. the weather could factor in a decision to chase jelle

as to voeckler, i'm in the same mind as those guessing he's not going to play as defensive with the jersey. that's not how he and his team won the jersey and he's play it more aggressive from here on than the usual faves. it would seem he has more to lose but i don't think so. he already far exceeded his goal and has less to lose than evans and schlecks. actually the same kinda applies to samu as far as exceeding his goal. contador will win if he's rehabbed enough end.of...

 

[The Hitch]

samu chasing polka dots could add to the defensive gc faves nerves:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sanchez ... ur-victory

samu is a contador fan

go gilbert! wishing for him to get the green jersey back from cavendish.

Oh this is very very bad news.

 

[taiwan]

Especially if the weathers bad, we'll see Linus Gerdemann off the front again. Unless he fancies the next stage's break more.

 

[Gingerale]

Oh this is very very bad news.

hitch, you would know him best but i suspect he's "buffling" a little.

even if he's not doing some bluffing, it's not horrible is it? he must have your hopes up high for TdF winner. voeckler earns my respect but samu would even be...fantastic:

samu
contador
voeckler

just dreaming and imagining bertie would be happy for his friend.

i better get something done. but i'm excited to see this stage, especially with the weather forecast

 

[Gubby Allen]

You do wonder sometimes about the punters who are giving the bookies their odds. For a stage that's uphill the entire way Contador & Andy Schleck are both 80/1, Frank no even listed down to 200s yet Cavendish is at 40/1.

Gilbert & Hushovd quite good value as 2 favourites at 6/1 and 10s, but real shot in the dark job to pick the winner beyond that.

Uran & Martinez look quite tempting at 50 & 66/1.

 

[red_flanders]

Watch the forum explode if someone tries to neutralize the stage on the descent.

 

[masking_agent]

I'm hoping for Tejay Van Garderen to make a surprise attack and take the stage.