2012 Tour de France: Stage 10: Mácon → Bellegarde-sur-Valserine (195 km)

[Yingge]

How many people were that stage in the break? 68? It's a bit more than 25, I guess.

Something like that, and whittled down as it went further - though the main GC contenders lost 12 min by the finish.

 

[Montanus]

A team like RSNT could really create problems for Sky today. They have the potential to go hard on Colombier and isolate Wiggo and Froome. Question is if they will gamble. If someone like Horner sets the pace in the beginning of Colombier he might blow up not just Porte, Rogers and EBH, but also Monfort, Gallopin and Klöden.

 

[Yingge]

There's no rule saying Sagan, Burghardt or Cummings have to stay with the break. If the tactic is to assist Nibali and Evans on the descents and run-in then they'll drop off and pace themselves up the Grand Colombier as required to be in the right place at the right time.

My thoughts too, and with the Intermediate sprint situated between the Cat 2 and HC, Sagan gets the points.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think todays stage will show us that we were wrong considering it an important stage for the GC.

I don't think anything particularly interesting is gonna happen besides Nibali setting the pace downhill for the first half and that's it.

The stage should just be considered a break away stage. It's the HC mountain that gets our expectations up and we automatically assume that it should be one for the GC contenders.

 

[vcampbell]

Something like that, and whittled down as it went further - though the main GC contenders lost 12 min by the finish.

In 2010 as I remember only Liquigas and Astana chased the break, because every other team was involved with a leader. It was like 10 vs 40. Now it's much different. You can't compare these two stages.

 

[ahpAJ888]

I can't imagine the winner of the stage not in this group... how are the chances of Popovych and fofonov in your opinion? because i had the time to bet on them at 175 and 225 each way bet 1/4 odds

 

[Yingge]

Break seems to have settled at around 5:30 - how many are still there at the top of the Cat2 and with what gap will be interesting.

 

[Frosty]

I think big breaks like this are quite common on stages such as this although this is one of the bigger breaks i have seen.

Going to start the 2nd cat climb soon.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Why on earth did Sky allow Sagan to be in the group..? If he's not there to wait for Nibali I'd be very disappointed.

 

[guncha]

So if Wiggins totally bonks today and ends out of top 5 in Paris the stage today isn't a top3-top5 stage?
I think that's a quite unnatural and backwards way to think about things.

If Wiggins loses 10 min and there are no gaps between Nibali, Evans, Froome, Menchov it would mean Wiggins were not ready for 3 week tour and the tour is over for him. But it would have been interesting development – there’s no doubt about it.

Of course you can compare them. I did and I said that I think the stage today is better suited to long range attacks.

But somehow HC 40km+ before finish = no attacks between GC guys in recent TDFs. We'll just see today history has repeated itself once again.

 

[Dedelou]

Break seems to have settled at around 5:30 - how many are still there at the top of the Cat2 and with what gap will be interesting.

you know Sanchez, Voeckler and Cazar are dreaming of a repeat of last year. No chance for Thomas, however, to get the jersey this year.

 

[Dedelou]

In the "virtual classification" Scarponi has now moved to 7th right with Maxime Monfort

 

[ahpAJ888]

I think sky will allow a gap of 10-12 mn and will maintain this gap until start of Colombier...

 

[Finn84]

Something like that, and whittled down as it went further - though the main GC contenders lost 12 min by the finish.

Around 60 and there was every team represented IIRC. Some teams withdrew their riders from the break later on.

 

[Yingge]

Still increasing - 6:09 at 80km.

 

[TatryTour2013]

Why on earth did Sky allow Sagan to be in the group..? If he's not there to wait for Nibali I'd be very disappointed.

Goss is there as well. Probably that's the reason. If they can manage it together to the top of the Colombier, then we will see what is more important for Liquigas - very uncertain yellow for future Astana rider or almost sure green for Sagan. But if Goss wins today he will be very close to Sagan in fight for green. It started to be very interesting ... so hopefully the manage it to the top today and then we will see ...

 

[Frosty]

But somehow HC 40km+ before finish = no attacks between GC guys in recent TDFs. We'll just see today history has repeated itself once again.

A bit reminiscent of stage 13 Pau-Lourdes last year? We'll see, someone will try and force the pace to see what happens, whether it is a full-blooded attack or just a half-hearted effort we will have to wait and see. Probably be the remnants of the break up ahead for anyone who can get away. Maybe Frank Schleck will have recovered enough to hope he can slip away and board a Voigt/Popovych express to the finish?

Big day tomorrow so i cant imagine anyone with eyes on the overall will want to give it a huge effort unless they can make everyone else do the same.

 

[Frosty]

Goss is there as well. Probably that's the reason. If they can manage it together to the top of the Colombier, then we will see what is more important for Liquigas - very uncertain yellow for future Astana rider or almost sure green for Sagan. But if Goss wins today he will be very close to Sagan in fight for green. It started to be very interesting ... so hopefully the manage it to the top today and then we will see ...

cant see Goss making it to the top of the Grand Colombier with the leaders. I think he is there to contest the intermediate sprint with Sagan.

Edit: Spelling, although i like the phrase 'intermediate spring'

 

[Panda Claws]

Interview before the start (with Van den Broeck)

Interviewer: "Who would you like to ride with most?"

Van den Broeck: "Evans and Nibali."

Standard answer of course, but at least VDB seems willing to team-up against Sky.

 

[Montanus]

Jesus, just say it Evans: you don't count on any help at all from Tejay in the mountains.

 

[aspider]

Goss is there as well. Probably that's the reason. If they can manage it together to the top of the Colombier, then we will see what is more important for Liquigas - very uncertain yellow for future Astana rider or almost sure green for Sagan. But if Goss wins today he will be very close to Sagan in fight for green. It started to be very interesting ... so hopefully the manage it to the top today and then we will see ...

I doubt Goss will gain any points on Sagan,not gonna happen...

 

[ahpAJ888]

I doubt about form of Scarponi and voeckler is still a bit injured.My favourites for the stage are peraud and casar(for sure casar is in superb shape like chavanel even if he has less abilities to climb than scarponi or peraud)

 

[Dedelou]

Goss is there as well. Probably that's the reason. If they can manage it together to the top of the Colombier, then we will see what is more important for Liquigas - very uncertain yellow for future Astana rider or almost sure green for Sagan. But if Goss wins today he will be very close to Sagan in fight for green. It started to be very interesting ... so hopefully the manage it to the top today and then we will see ...

I can't imagine Sagan or Goss keeping up with climbers on the Colombiere. Certainly not with a GC lead train chasing behind. They would have to have over 15 minutes to survive the powerful pace the SKY train could inflict. No. I just think those guys are there to fight for the green jersey points right before the main climb and them just do whatever they can

 

[Frosty]

I doubt about form of Scarponi and voeckler is still a bit injured.My favourites for the stage are peraud and casar(for sure casar is in superb shape like chavanel even if he has less abilities to climb than scarponi or peraud)

Its a good Casar kind of stage. He is a good downhiller so if he isnt that far behind at the top then he could catch people on the descent.

I think the first finishers on the Planche des Belles Filles stage were Voeckler and Scarponi who finished in the same time at +2.05 to Froome. Obviously some of the others would not have been going full pelt but it shows that, although they havent got great form, those two will be among the best climbers here.

 

[Frosty]

Hutarovitch in a mountain breakaway? He is one of the worst climbers in the peloton so must have got in there to try and make sure the break with Casar in made it ahead of the peloton. Probably done some hard shifts.