2012 Tour de France: Stage 10: Mácon → Bellegarde-sur-Valserine (195 km)

[TubularBills]

Prediction.

The peloton, amused by the fireworks in stages 1 - 9. Will allow SKY to exercise their glory through stage 15...

following the rest day and commencing in stage 16 they will unleash hell.

Do you take them for fools?

 

[SetonHallPirate]

I'm just disappointed that ASO (again) has chosen to restrict video for the first hour and a half of this stage.

 

[TubularBills]

I'm just disappointed that ASO (again) has chosen to restrict video for the first hour and a half of this stage.

I agree, in the rare instances where we are enabled to watch the defining moments of a road race - we are intrinsic to understanding the result.

 

[guncha]

Yes 8 guys finished within 20 secs on the stage to Pamplona. But I think a better indication of what happened is to say that Indurain, Rominger and Olano lost 8'30".

OK, it looks like good stage since Rominger and Olano lost tour in this stage (Indurain has already lost it in the Alpes). But still - it wasn't a stage were top3-top5 gained significant time on each other. Had Larrau been MTF the top3-top5 selection might have also taken place. I've been following TDF since 2000 and I have never seen GC battle on HC 40km+ before finish.

 

[guncha]

In terms of average gradient Aubisque and Gd Colombier sure is similar. But Gd Colombier has some 12-13% parts which makes all the difference (hopefully).

While Richemond might be piece of cake for contenders on form it's still useful terrain in the case that something happens on Gd Colombier.

Aubisque also has 13% sections, last 10km is 8,5%. I don't see the difference between these two especially when they are located far from finish.

 

[Magnus]

OK, it looks like good stage since Rominger and Olano lost tour in this stage (Indurain has already lost it in the Alpes). But still - it wasn't a stage were top3-top5 gained significant time on each other. Had Larrau been MTF the top3-top5 selection might have also taken place. I've been following TDF since 2000 and I have never seen GC battle on HC 40km+ before finish.

Well, before stage 17 Rominger and Olano was second and third on GC so I would definitely say that the Pamplona stage made a top3 selection.

Did you miss stage 18 last year? Of course it was a MTF but frankly from a route perspective the small twisty roads in the forest on Richemond is better suited for a breakaway to stay away from a peloton/chasing group than the big road in the wind swept valley from Briancon to Col de Lautaret.

 

[pablo0642]

A plausible attack plan for GC?

Here’s how I’d like to see the stage pan out and what could work for the GC contenders (namely Nibbles & Cuddles with roles for JVDB, RSNT, Basso and others):

Nibbles and Cuddels attack on the crest of the Lebe and look to gain a small 5-10 second gap by the bottom of the Colombier. This is just designed to force Sky to chase hard and hopefully put some of the train at the limit. Then let them catch the attackers at/near the bottom of the climb and, if they drop the tempo, have a domestique/RSNT attack straight away. If the tempo stays v high wait until about 1/3 way up the climb. Then have another dom/RSNT attack – if sky raise the tempo to catch just sit in. If not then another attack should be launched by a dom/RSNT about a minute later anyway. Rinse and repeat until 4-5 riders have gone and the front one is about a minute up the road. Now they should be about into the top third of the climb - then the GC contenders should start attacking. This is not necessarily going to get much of a jump but is all about creating a 15-20second gap by the top of the climb so Evans and Nibali can descend without Wiggins and also ensuring that he only has Froome to help on descent or has to wait for descending backup. From here it’s a straight out full gas suffer fest to the finish – hopefully utilising a couple of the earlier escapees along the way so that by the time at the top of the Richemond a gap of about a minute exists. From here its all about extending this on the downhill then holding onto as much of this as possible from the maurading and probably partly regrouped sky train. May be able to make up a minute of the deficit by the end?

Question is whether this will take too much out of Evans and Nibali for the following day versus Wiggins and whether they can realistically stay in such a long break. Even so I’d suggest that if they want the MJ they should be able to put it on the line from 50km out. I think if this succeeded it would also psychologically damage Wiggins as well as obviously chip away at the 3-4mins Evans or 4-5mins Nibbles needs to finish ahead. I also think if they don’t attack in concert here and wait until the final descent and only take a handful of seconds then Sky will start to feel very confident of retaining my MJ into Paris.

What does everyone think? A plausible plan? Can the GC contenders work together?

 

[Magnus]

Aubisque also has 13% sections, last 10km is 8,5%. I don't see the difference between these two especially when they are located far from finish.

Maybe you're right. I don't have first hand experience with (ascending) the Culoz-side of Gd Colombier nor the Aubisque. It's my impression that Gd Colomiber is much more irregular than Aubisque but maybe I'm wrong.

In the end it's all down to how it's raced.

 

[BoxCoppi]

Aubisque also has 13% sections, last 10km is 8,5%. I don't see the difference between these two especially when they are located far from finish.

I agree that they look extremely similar. Below is a quote from inrng.com who compares the Galibier to Grand Colombier:

consider this, the Col du Galibier from Valloire is 18.1km long and averages 6.9%. The Grand Colombier from Culoz is 18.1km long and averages 6.9%. Obviously the Galibier soars to 2645m meaning the air is thinner but in retort the Grand Colombier has sections at 12-14% along the way making it steeper in parts.

Considering the action of the first two mountain stages this year, I'm actually quite hopeful that we'll be in for a treat this afternoon. The stage that Pinot won was one of the most exciting [non MTF] stages I've seen from start to finish. Sky tired from constantly bringing back break-aways. Lets just hope the same happens today!

Bring it on.

 

[TubularBills]

Looking forward to some crazy descending by Nibali. Believe he might take the stage also.

Might? Will.

 

[Hammerhed]

Pablo, I'm not sure about your plan (though it sounds plausible), but one thing you point out is absolutely a must: The GC contenders must work together if they hope even to close the gap a bit. Right now Sky has a dominant team, a team which so outclasses its rivals as to make them all look pathetic in comparison.
Therefore, BMC, LeakyGas, and Katusha--them too!--must unite to rage against the machine or face annihilation: The British juggernaut will grind them into dust.

 

[guncha]

Well, before stage 17 Rominger and Olano was second and third on GC so I would definitely say that the Pamplona stage made a top3 selection.

IMHO, top3-top5 selection is a stage where significant time gaps occurs between riders who finished in top3-top5 in Paris. But anyway, that stage was 16 years ago, it was good and exicting, it had 4-5 big climbs, it was last mountain stage of the Tour.

Did you miss stage 18 last year? Of course it was a MTF but frankly from a route perspective the small twisty roads in the forest on Richemond is better suited for a breakaway to stay away from a peloton/chasing group than the big road in the wind swept valley from Briancon to Col de Lautaret.

Atfer 1996 we had HC 40km+ almost every year but nothing happened in these stages... You cannot compare multiple climb stage with MTF with the one we'll have today.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

"I think [our tactics] will be the same as all the other teams we're going to attack now. They [Team Sky] have a gap and we need to attack," he told reporters. "When I put in the attack it's going to be full gas.

Carry on Van Den Broeck

Hmm... Where did he say that? I'm not convinced he's referring to Sky but maybe other top 5 riders? Not that it makes much of a difference, because if he attacks, it doesn't matter who it's aimed at of course. But there's not much point in him attacking Sky unless he wants to wear yellow in Paris.

I'm surprised he wasn't able to hitch himself to the RSNT train that bridged the gap. Those last few guys who got dropped lost a boatload on the descent.

According to himself, he only missed the group at the top of the climb by 10-20 seconds. But you shouldn't be surprised, he's really not that punchy to respond to those kinds of attacks swiftly.

 

[its like that]

Nothing is going to happen today. The fireworks will happen tomorrow

Evans and Nibali would be pretty stupid to try anything today to be honest keeping in mind tomorrow, seriously how much time would they be able to claw back on the descent even if they tried to gap the Sky train?

 

[its like that]

If anything exciting will happen it will come from someone further down the standings...


Cue Mr Jurgen Van Den Broeck

 

[guncha]

If anything exciting will happen it will come from someone further down the standings...

Exactly my thoughts.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Nothing is going to happen today. The fireworks will happen tomorrow

Evans and Nibali would be pretty stupid to try anything today to be honest keeping in mind tomorrow, seriously how much time would they be able to claw back on the descent even if they tried to gap the Sky train?

If anything exciting will happen it will come from someone further down the standings...

Cue Mr Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Well... i'm not so sure. It's not like they have all the time in the world and dozens of opportunities to attack Wiggins (I always want to call him Higgins, lol) and they have to think about how much time they will lose on top of the current gap in the last ITT. Because frankly, i hope they don't assume the second ITT things will be any different and Higgins ( ) will be bad because it's in the third week.

 

[karlboss]

Nothing is going to happen today. The fireworks will happen tomorrow

Evans and Nibali would be pretty stupid to try anything today to be honest keeping in mind tomorrow, seriously how much time would they be able to claw back on the descent even if they tried to gap the Sky train?

They'd be stupid not to try today. If all goes well it should be a TTT to the end from the top of Colombier, Nibali, Evans, JVDB, plus assorted domestiques who were in the break vs Wiggins and Froome. As long as the Sky boys are chasing all the way to the line it's worthwhile. If just to make them tired for tomorrow. If no gap is created u pthe colombier they can rein it in there.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Nothing is going to happen today. The fireworks will happen tomorrow

Evans and Nibali would be pretty stupid to try anything today to be honest keeping in mind tomorrow, seriously how much time would they be able to claw back on the descent even if they tried to gap the Sky train?

Well, it's not like the one attacking is the only one using energy

Tomorrow is not enough, and I sincerely hope that Evans and Nibali (and VDB) realise this. They will have to attack on multiple stages and today happens to be one of two that fit Wiggins the least.

We've seen this - the other scenario - many times already. When do the riders realise that it doesn't work? This "Oh, I'll wait till the toughtest mountain stage and then attack once and for all going all out here" state of mind simply doesn't work.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

They'd be stupid not to try today. If all goes well it should be a TTT to the end from the top of Colombier, Nibali, Evans, JVDB, plus assorted domestiques who were in the break vs Wiggins and Froome. As long as the Sky boys are chasing all the way to the line it's worthwhile. If just to make them tired for tomorrow. If no gap is created u pthe colombier they can rein it in there.

Exactly - it's all about creating pressure. Evans is talking about being strongest in Week 3 - to make that count he must make Week 2 as hard as possible. Even if he gains no time, he's just got to look at it as part of the wearing down process.

Sky would love the other riders to say "we can't gain time today, so we'll take it easy". Not attacking today is just playing into their hands.

 

[jmspinto]

.

At 7km to the top of the Col de Grand Colombier the gradient is about 12%.

Let's say Nibali and Evans attack and Wiggins is struggling but Froome isn't.

What do Sky do?

Yes! That´s a part of the game ... one of the things that may make Sky tumble would be their indecision between the so called leader and the man in form!! I´d love to see that!!!

 

[aidianajones]

Why does everyone already assume that Froome will out climb Wiggo? Yes he took 2 seconds out of him on stage 7, but that was on a short punchy climb with 23% gradient (Which does not suit Wiggins at all) .. I think we should wait and see the big mountains before making any assumptions..

 

[cineteq]

Nothing is going to happen today. The fireworks will happen tomorrow

Evans and Nibali would be pretty stupid to try anything today to be honest keeping in mind tomorrow, seriously how much time would they be able to claw back on the descent even if they tried to gap the Sky train?

You mean they should take the same *victorious* path Andy took last year?

 

[Kwibus]

Why does everyone already assume that Froome will out climb Wiggo? Yes he took 2 seconds out of him on stage 7, but that was on a short punchy climb with 23% gradient (Which does not suit Wiggins at all) .. I think we should wait and see the big mountains before making any assumptions..

Because Froome outclimbed Wiggins at the Vuelta. Froome lost the Vuelta because he had to work and wait for Wiggins.

 

[Kwibus]

You mean they should take the same *victorious* path Andy took last year?

Indeed. Let them please have the wisdom that they can't wait until the last MTF. It has to happen every time it's possible.