2012 Tour Down Under Stage 5: McLaren Vale - Old Willunga Hill 151.5km

[El Pistolero]

Way I see it its a three way fight: Gerrans v Valverde v Boasson Hagen.

Should be interesting, going silent on news now as i'll be away for the weekend so will catch up on the stage later.

What about Thomas Degendt? He's still high up in the GC, no? He did after all beat Andy Schleck on a mountain stage

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think someone unexpected wins, but we'll see.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think someone unexpected wins, but we'll see.

Such as Martin kohler

In all serousness, if Frank doesnt do much work he certainly could do well on the climb tommorrow.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Such as Martin kohler

In all serousness, if Frank doesnt do much work he certainly could do well on the climb tommorrow.

didn't believe this last week, nor this week

 

[Ferminal]

Contenders for tomorrow:

1 Martin KOHLER SUI BMC 27 15:03:34
2 Michael MATTHEWS AUS RAB 22 +2
3 Oscar FREIRE GOMEZ ESP KAT 36 +2
4 Gerald CIOLEK GER OPQ 26 +6
5 Simon GERRANS AUS GEC 32 +8
6 Daniele BENNATI ITA RSH 32 +8
7 Edvald BOASSON HAGEN NOR SKY 25 +8
8 Jan BAKELANTS BEL RSH 26 +8
9 Eduard VORGANOV RUS KAT 30 +8
10 Rohan DENNIS AUS AUS 22 +9
11 Biel KADRI FRA ALM 26 +10
12 Jose Joaquin ROJAS GIL ESP MOV 27 +11
13 Xavier FLORENCIO CABRE ESP KAT 33 +12
14 Luke ROBERTS AUS SAX 35 +12
15 Sergey LAGUTIN UZB VCD 31 +12
16 Kristijan KOREN SLO LIQ 26 +12
17 Michael ROGERS AUS SKY 33 +12
18 Serge PAUWELS BEL OPQ 29 +12
19 Romain LEMARCHAND FRA ALM 25 +12
20 Giampaolo CARUSO ITA KAT 32 +12
21 Adam HANSEN AUS LTB 31 +12
22 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV 32 +12
23 Bernard SULZBERGER AUS AUS 29 +12
24 Heinrich HAUSSLER AUS GRM 28 +12
25 Linus GERDEMANN GER RSH 30 +12
26 Alessandro BALLAN ITA BMC 33 +12
27 José Ivan GUTIERREZ PALACIOS ESP MOV 34 +12
28 Ryder HESJEDAL CAN GRM 32 +12
29 Vicente REYNES MIMO ESP LTB 31 +12
30 Julien VERMOTE BEL OPQ 23 +12
31 Greg VAN AVERMAET BEL BMC 27 +12
32 Luis Leon SANCHEZ GIL ESP RAB 29 +12
33 Jack BAUER NZL GRM 27 +12
34 Tiago MACHADO POR RSH 27 +12
35 Sandy CASAR FRA FDJ 33 +12
36 Gorka IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI ESP EUS 25 +12
37 Federico CANUTI ITA LIQ 27 +12
38 Angel MADRAZO RUIZ ESP MOV 24 +12
39 Cameron MEYER AUS GEC 24 +12
40 Sergio Miguel Moreira PAULINHO POR SAX 32 +12
41 Javier MORENO BAZAN ESP MOV 28 +12
42 Jens VOIGT GER RSH 41 +12
43 Jérémy ROY FRA FDJ 29 +12
44 Matthew LLOYD AUS LAM 29 +12
45 Wilco KELDERMAN NED RAB 21 +12

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Contenders for tomorrow:

1 Martin KOHLER SUI BMC 27 15:03:34
2 Michael MATTHEWS AUS RAB 22 +2
3 Oscar FREIRE GOMEZ ESP KAT 36 +2
4 Gerald CIOLEK GER OPQ 26 +6
5 Simon GERRANS AUS GEC 32 +8
6 Daniele BENNATI ITA RSH 32 +8
7 Edvald BOASSON HAGEN NOR SKY 25 +8
8 Jan BAKELANTS BEL RSH 26 +8
9 Eduard VORGANOV RUS KAT 30 +8
10 Rohan DENNIS AUS AUS 22 +9
11 Biel KADRI FRA ALM 26 +10
12 Jose Joaquin ROJAS GIL ESP MOV 27 +11
13 Xavier FLORENCIO CABRE ESP KAT 33 +12
14 Luke ROBERTS AUS SAX 35 +12
15 Sergey LAGUTIN UZB VCD 31 +12
16 Kristijan KOREN SLO LIQ 26 +12
17 Michael ROGERS AUS SKY 33 +12
18 Serge PAUWELS BEL OPQ 29 +12
19 Romain LEMARCHAND FRA ALM 25 +12
20 Giampaolo CARUSO ITA KAT 32 +12
21 Adam HANSEN AUS LTB 31 +12
22 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV 32 +12
23 Bernard SULZBERGER AUS AUS 29 +12
24 Heinrich HAUSSLER AUS GRM 28 +12
25 Linus GERDEMANN GER RSH 30 +12
26 Alessandro BALLAN ITA BMC 33 +12
27 José Ivan GUTIERREZ PALACIOS ESP MOV 34 +12
28 Ryder HESJEDAL CAN GRM 32 +12
29 Vicente REYNES MIMO ESP LTB 31 +12
30 Julien VERMOTE BEL OPQ 23 +12
31 Greg VAN AVERMAET BEL BMC 27 +12
32 Luis Leon SANCHEZ GIL ESP RAB 29 +12
33 Jack BAUER NZL GRM 27 +12
34 Tiago MACHADO POR RSH 27 +12
35 Sandy CASAR FRA FDJ 33 +12
36 Gorka IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI ESP EUS 25 +12
37 Federico CANUTI ITA LIQ 27 +12
38 Angel MADRAZO RUIZ ESP MOV 24 +12
39 Cameron MEYER AUS GEC 24 +12
40 Sergio Miguel Moreira PAULINHO POR SAX 32 +12
41 Javier MORENO BAZAN ESP MOV 28 +12
42 Jens VOIGT GER RSH 41 +12
43 Jérémy ROY FRA FDJ 29 +12
44 Matthew LLOYD AUS LAM 29 +12
45 Wilco KELDERMAN NED RAB 21 +12

be afraid, be very afraid

 

[Wilba60]

I think someone unexpected wins, but we'll see.

My smokey is Rohan Dennis. Cam Meyer is lurking too but I assume he will be looking after Gerrans.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

dennis?

I highly doubt it.

 

[Wilba60]

I think someone unexpected wins, but we'll see.

That's what makes him a smokey....who is your unexpected winner?

 

[Wilba60]

Can't seem to find any odds for the overall as all outlets I can find haven't put up figures. This is currently available for tomorrow's stage but not sure if it is updated after today?
11:40 | Stage 5: McLaren Vale - Old Willunga Hill 151.5km
Alejandro Valverde (ESP)
7.00
Matthew Lloyd (AUS)
7.00
Oscar Freire (ESP)
7.00
Luis Leon Sanchez (ESP)
8.00
E. Boasson Hagen (NOR)
11.00
Jeremy Roy (FRA)
12.00
Simon Gerrans (AUS)
12.00
Linus Gerdemann (GER)
15.00
Michael Rogers (AUS)
15.00
Ryder Hesjedal (CAN)
17.00

 

[PCutter]

Not sure if he's considered a smokey given he's apparently one of the best uphill sprinters in the world....but Matthews for GC win. Picks up both intermediate sprints along the way to build a buffer and then LLS attacks on Willunga to take the stage and eat up bonifications from Gerrans/Valverde.

 

[rgmerk]

Can't seem to find any odds for the overall as all outlets I can find haven't put up figures. This is currently available for tomorrow's stage but not sure if it is updated after today?

They're some strange odds. I can understand Valverde and LLS being among the favourites, but Freire equal favourite? Lloyd favoured over Gerrans? Jeremy Roy at the same odds as Gerrans?

 

[theyoungest]

They're some strange odds. I can understand Valverde and LLS being among the favourites, but Freire equal favourite? Lloyd favoured over Gerrans? Jeremy Roy at the same odds as Gerrans?

If a group of about 15 riders arrives at the finish, chances are that Freire will be there, and he'll probably be the fastest.

 

[CobbleStoner]

Not sure if he's considered a smokey given he's apparently one of the best uphill sprinters in the world....but Matthews for GC win. Picks up both intermediate sprints along the way to build a buffer and then LLS attacks on Willunga to take the stage and eat up bonifications from Gerrans/Valverde.

I like this, along with Wilco marking/countering with LLS

 

[theyoungest]

I like this, along with Wilco marking/countering with LLS

Only logical tactic, Matthews stays with the group and Lulu and Wilco cover attacks. I certainly expect something from Lulu, he has done no work all week so he should be fresh.

 

[just some guy]

I have a weird feeling that Lampre will have there 1st win of the year.

 

[Wilba60]

Updated market for Stage 5....not overall....although they would be similar odds. Can't see the current leader on the boards anywhere
Alejandro Valverde (ESP)
5.00
Simon Gerrans (AUS)
7.00
Luis Leon Sanchez (ESP)
8.00
Oscar Freire (ESP)
10.00
E. Boasson Hagen (NOR)
11.00
Matthew Lloyd (AUS)
15.00
Michael Rogers (AUS)
15.00
Linus Gerdemann (GER)
15.00
Ryder Hesjedal (CAN)
17.00
Geraint Thomas (GBR)
17.00
Nathan Haas (AUS)
17.00
Cameron Meyer (AUS)
26.00
Gert Steegmans (BEL)
41.00
Sandy Casar (FRA)
41.00
Marcel Sieberg (GER)
41.00
Michael Matthews (AUS)
41.00
Heinrich Haussler (AUS)
41.00
Jeremy Roy (FRA)
51.00
Leigh Howard (AUS)
51.00
Chris Sutton (AUS)
51.00
Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)
51.00

 

[Havetts]

Hopefully Rabo can execute some proper tactics with LLS, Wilco & Matthews..

Damn we mafiosi quickly have to put 1$ on Kelderman and we'll be able to fund our propaganda campaigns forever : o...

 

[theyoungest]

RadioShack (Bennati, Bakelants, Gerdemann, Machado, Voigt) are by far the strongest team in the race, and should really own that stage tomorrow.

 

[Moondance]

be afraid, be very afraid

Indeed... Kelderman will crush souls tomorrow.

 

[Jamsque]

I'm curious to see what kind of early-season form the Hes-J is carrying. I really want to see him win something in Ardennes week this year.

 

[theyoungest]

I'm curious to see what kind of early-season form the Hes-J is carrying. I really want to see him win something in Ardennes week this year.

My CQ ranking team would certainly like that, but a lot of stars would have to align for that to happen.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I have a weird feeling that Lampre will have there 1st win of the year.

hopefully bole.

got him @101

 

[dlwssonic]

GVA has a good IF he has good form. Kohler will probably lose the jersey

 

[Kwibus]

1 Martin KOHLER SUI BMC 27 15:03:34
2 Michael MATTHEWS AUS RAB 22 +2
5 Simon GERRANS AUS GEC 32 +8
7 Edvald BOASSON HAGEN NOR SKY 25 +8
22 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV 32 +12
26 Alessandro BALLAN ITA BMC 33 +12
28 Ryder HESJEDAL CAN GRM 32 +12
31 Greg VAN AVERMAET BEL BMC 27 +12
32 Luis Leon SANCHEZ GIL ESP RAB 29 +12
34 Tiago MACHADO POR RSH 27 +12
36 Gorka IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI ESP EUS 25 +12
38 Angel MADRAZO RUIZ ESP MOV 24 +12
44 Matthew LLOYD AUS LAM 29 +12
45 Wilco KELDERMAN NED RAB 21 +12

All riders that can win tomorrow and I somehow left Freire out of the list... I don't think he can do it and there are some names on there I just don't know yet like Matthews and Kelderman obviously

Should be fun tomorrow