2012 Vuelta. The Return of the King.

[Panda Claws]

This WC should be really interesting indeed. I am hoping for a battle for seconds between Gilbert and the pack.

 

[LaFlorecita]

No, it makes the race. This is how a worlds course has to be: it could be a sprint, or the attacker could just hang on.

I want an attacker to win not a boring sprint. 1.5 k is too long to keep an advantage of mere seconds.

Also, needless to say, I was hoping for a podium for Alberto. Seems like all my dreams are falling apart.

 

[El Pistolero]

Lol 1.5km is not too long to keep an advantage of mere seconds.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Lol 1.5km is not too long to keep an advantage of mere seconds.

If the packs works together they'll be able to bring back the attacker. I already see how boring it will be. They should have drawn the finish line on top of the Cauberg.

 

[The Hitch]

If the packs works together they'll be able to bring back the attacker. I already see how boring it will be. They should have drawn the finish line on top of the Cauberg.

Watch the video will posted. same place same course, 1 rider taking on the whole peloton including Boonen's train, and the rider hangs on comfortably.

 

[Duartista]

If the packs works together they'll be able to bring back the attacker. I already see how boring it will be. They should have drawn the finish line on top of the Cauberg.

That would make it more boring, surely, as the number of possible winners would be cut drastically. Besides, there is no guarantee a big pack will still be together on the final approach to the Cauberg.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Watch the video will posted. same place same course, 1 rider taking on the whole peloton including Boonen's train, and the rider hangs on comfortably.

Where?
......

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I had a dream recently.

It was the Cauberg.

Thousands of fans going wild, watching the final scenes of the world championships play out.

And as the final selection prepares for the ascent, Alberto Contador Velasco jumps out.

He flies up the hill and glides down the descent.

A solo victory, 5 seconds in ahead of the pack.

It would be the biggest moment in cycling history.

The forums would explode.

The haters, oh that would be the sweetest bit.

Its dreams like this that help us get through the sentence.

Yes please! That would be so very amazing, so very awesome, so absolutely poetic, such an amazing middle finger to the arbitrary decision CAS made.
I'm going to root for a scenario like this. Would love it more than a Gilbert win

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Where?
......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_o3wELbXnMI

 

[Red Rick]

If the packs works together they'll be able to bring back the attacker. I already see how boring it will be. They should have drawn the finish line on top of the Cauberg.

No way it's gonna be a bunch sprint, The attackers will get something like 3 seconds on a splintered group, the bunch won't stick together, if it does, the gap will be way too big

 

[LaFlorecita]

That would make it more boring, surely, as the number of possible winners would be cut drastically. Besides, there is no guarantee a big pack will still be together on the final approach to the Cauberg.

I can follow your line of reasoning, but for me the attacks are exciting, not the number of possible winners. I just can't see an attacker staying away and that's what I want.

Ah well, I should have had a better look at the route back when it came out, I would not have had false expectations.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes please! That would be so very amazing, so very awesome, so absolutely poetic, such an amazing middle finger to the arbitrary decision CAS made.
I'm going to root for a scenario like this. Would love it more than a Gilbert win

You can root how much you want, it's not gonna happen anyway.

 

[LaFlorecita]

No way it's gonna be a bunch sprint, The attackers will get something like 3 seconds on a splintered group, the bunch won't stick together, if it does, the gap will be way too big

Is there really no one that understands me? Do I have to spell it out?

 

[theyoungest]

Is there really no one that understands me? Do I have to spell it out?

I know what you mean, I just don't agree... an attacker winning is fine by me, but it makes it more exciting if it's just by inches. And if you think it's going to be as big a bunch as in the Tour 2006, watch the video from the actual Worlds race in Valkenburg in the 90s. That was 7 or 8 guys.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I know what you mean, I just don't agree... an attacker winning is fine by me, but it makes it more exciting if it's just by inches. And if you think it's going to be as big a bunch as in the Tour 2006, watch the video from the actual Worlds race in Valkenburg in the 90s. That was 7 or 8 guys.

That's partially my point, but not entirely. Think harder.

 

[greenedge]

My opinion will be either a solo rider gets the win or a rider like Freire/ Sagan hold on and win. Gilbert could still win a sprint if he has riders like Evans and Nibali there but he will have to force a gap on the Cauberg/ then hope the others help.

If Cancellara survives the Cauberg i can just imagine him descending like crazy then Time-Trialling to victory and i would love that.

 

[The Hitch]

My opinion will be either a solo rider gets the win or a rider like Freire/ Sagan hold on and win. Gilbert could still win a sprint if he has riders like Evans and Nibali there but he will have to force a gap on the Cauberg/ then hope the others help.

If Cancellara survives the Cauberg i can just imagine him descending like crazy then Time-Trialling to victory and i would love that.

Cancellara on form is a different beast to what we see from him on hills the other 364 days of the year.

See Mendrisio.

IMO he is 1 of the 3 favorites together with Gilbert and Valverde.

 

[El Pistolero]

I predict a scenario like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoK6K2PbfrQ

10 riders to arrive at the Cauberg and one person to jump away That will be either Contador or Gilbert. The rest will ride for second place. Valverde will try to rely on his sprint, so can't see him jumping away.

 

[The Hitch]

I predict a scenario like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoK6K2PbfrQ

10 riders to arrive at the Cauberg and one person to jump away That will be either Contador or Gilbert. The rest will ride for second place. Valverde will try to rely on his sprint, so can't see him jumping away.

Valverde is the sprint option. So riders like Rodriguez and Sanchez can try to get away earlier.

 

[El Pistolero]

Valverde is the sprint option. So riders like Rodriguez and Sanchez can try to get away earlier.

Yeah, but getting away before the Cauberg is suicide in 9 out of 10 cases. Waiting for the Cauberg is game over because everyone knows Gilbert has won then.

I know not everyone believes Gilbert is the king in these uphill finishes, but just compare AGR 2008 with 2010/2011 to see the difference in power. On these kind of hills, Gilbert in top shape is practically unbeatable. I would only give a motivated Contador a chance of beating him here.

The 1.5km flat won't make much difference in my opinion, we saw that last year in the Clasica where there was still 4km to go after the final hill. Unless a group of 60 arrive together on the Cauberg... Stranger things have happened I suppose.

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah, but getting away before the Cauberg is suicide in 9 out of 10 cases. Waiting for the Cauberg is game over because everyone knows Gilbert has won then.

I know not everyone believes Gilbert is the king in these uphill finishes, but just compare AGR 2008 with 2010/2011 to see the difference in power. On these kind of hills, Gilbert in top shape is practically unbeatable. I would only give a motivated Contador a chance of beating him here.

The 1.5km flat won't make much difference in my opinion, we saw that last year in the Clasica where there was still 4km to go after the final hill. Unless a group of 60 arrive together on the Cauberg... Stranger things have happened I suppose.

If Kolobnev is there, whoever gets into a break with him 2k before the Cauberg wins

Perhaps Im overestimating the course but Im hoping for Liege like groups of 2s and 3rs on the road before the Cauberg.

Or a small group of say 8 riders approaching the Cauberg. If Spain can have 3 riders in something like that, and say J Rod attacks, who is going to bring him back, knowing that Sanchez will just do the same and Valverde is there for the sprint.

 

[El Pistolero]

If Kolobnev is there, whoever gets into a break with him 2k before the Cauberg wins

Perhaps Im overestimating the course but Im hoping for Liege like groups of 2s and 3rs on the road before the Cauberg.

Or a small group of say 8 riders approaching the Cauberg. If Spain can have 3 riders in something like that, and say J Rod attacks, who is going to bring him back, knowing that Sanchez will just do the same and Valverde is there for the sprint.

Jelle Vanendert, Greg van Avermaet, Dries Devenys, Bjorn Leukemans perhaps even Tom Boonen if he finds his 2006 legs all of a sudden. And even more likely: Gilbert will just power away from everyone including Jrod.

 

[Lanark]

Yeah, but getting away before the Cauberg is suicide in 9 out of 10 cases. Waiting for the Cauberg is game over because everyone knows Gilbert has won then.
.

What? There have been 9 editions of the Gold Race with the Cauberg finish, that has resulted in a 'bunch' sprint twice, a sprint of a medium sized group twice, once it resulted in two guys who escaped before the Cauberg sprinting, once in a group of three guys who escaped before the Cauberg sprinting, and three times it ended in a succesfull solo. Getting away before the Cauberg has a succes rate of 55%, not 10...

If Kolobnev is there, whoever gets into a break with him 2k before the Cauberg wins

Perhaps Im overestimating the course but Im hoping for Liege like groups of 2s and 3rs on the road before the Cauberg.

Or a small group of say 8 riders approaching the Cauberg. If Spain can have 3 riders in something like that, and say J Rod attacks, who is going to bring him back, knowing that Sanchez will just do the same and Valverde is there for the sprint.

I do think you're overestimating the course a little bit, I think it could be a bit easier than the Gold Race, but then again a WC is raced differently as well. That scenario you descride is certainly a possibility, that's the way Vinokourov, Schleck and Schumacher won the Amstel.

 

[ferryman]

I predict a scenario like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoK6K2PbfrQ

10 riders to arrive at the Cauberg and one person to jump away That will be either Contador or Gilbert. The rest will ride for second place. Valverde will try to rely on his sprint, so can't see him jumping away.

Enjoyed that. Jeez, I forgot Zubeldia was a real rider and not just a number on a start list

When Gilbert goes though, it does leave you screaming where is Valverde Can't wait for the first showdown

 

[Walkman]

Yeah, but getting away before the Cauberg is suicide in 9 out of 10 cases. Waiting for the Cauberg is game over because everyone knows Gilbert has won then.

I know not everyone believes Gilbert is the king in these uphill finishes, but just compare AGR 2008 with 2010/2011 to see the difference in power. On these kind of hills, Gilbert in top shape is practically unbeatable. I would only give a motivated Contador a chance of beating him here.

Unbeatable? Only threatened by AC? Did you watched the Tour? Evans in top shape can clearly match both Gilbert and AC in hilly finishes. How about some objectivety and not just namedrop you two favorite riders?