2013 Santos Tour Down Under: 20th Jan - 27th Jan

[Dazed and Confused]

Cannondale's line up is disappointing

Agostini
Salerno
Wurf
Canuti
Marangoni
Sagan (Juraj)
Vandborg

looks lightweight with P Sagan, Moser and Viviani opting to take on other races.

 

[will10]

So last year Goss wasn't in the form he had in 2011, yet still wins a stage in the Giro and turns in his best Tour performance with loads of top 3s. Yet some are saying he "can't compete?". Interesting.

 

[seaby71]

I am not saying goss can't compete, however to win on a semi regular basis you need ability (which he has) , trust in your lead out (which he clearly doesn't) and race smarts (which he lacks more often than not)
I think any quality sprinter would regard 2nd and 3rds in grand tours as still a loss. When their careers are over they will talk about their successes not that i placed in many stages on a grand tour. It is about victory for these guys as it should be. If they talk about their placings then they probably never believe they can truly win anyway.

 

[Tuarts]

People throw stupid words around like world class and elite all the time. Cavendish is a freak, a 'HC' sprinter. In a fair sprint with every top rider getting a chance, no one can get near him even if you are Cipo with a Zabel-Petacchi lead out train. The only other sprinter you can realistically call 'elite' at the moment is Greipel. There's a long and subjective gap back to whoever is third.

Sagan is a freak but he's only had one season of top line sprinting and may move away from that anyway.
Degenkolb needs an incline or hill and has faced the Quality of Opposition like he would in a Tour.
Kittel needs to stop being injured but he's on the upward, not there yet.
Pettachi is ready to get his Seniors card
Farrar has gone awol these last two seasons (for whatever reason).
The rest are either up coming talents or a bunch of B-grade sprinters

So Goss. Quite easily thrown in with those name and has shown and proven he can place highly and win a GT sprint. Being able to compete for the win is contesting, so movingtarget's original claim is just ignorance.

Sprinting is chaotic and a million things can go wrong. That's why even a rider like Cavendish doesn't have a perfect record. Trying to use him having the perfect day as a yardstick is stupid. Other sprinters can win and placing highly and consistently is a key indicator that he is has shown he is more than capable of.

'Perfect Day' arguists need to remember that on his day, Goss is less than a wheel off Cav, which not many current sprints can claim.

 

[Tuarts]

I am not saying goss can't compete, however to win on a semi regular basis you need ability (which he has) , trust in your lead out (which he clearly doesn't) and race smarts (which he lacks more often than not)
I think any quality sprinter would regard 2nd and 3rds in grand tours as still a loss. When their careers are over they will talk about their successes not that i placed in many stages on a grand tour. It is about victory for these guys as it should be. If they talk about their placings then they probably never believe they can truly win anyway.

So you're claiming Ventoso is a better sprinter than Goss?

 

[seaby71]

Ventoso doesn't have mattys talent. I think gossy has a lot of wins in the future if he would only realise that he needs to trust his team and use a bit more of his brain when approaching the finish. Cav is a freak and is probably the only sprinter that can maintain his top line speed for such long distances. Gossy certainly can't, so he needs to use other factors that can help get him over the line first on a more consistent basis. I think he probably should of won 2 stages at the tour if he was smarter.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

People throw stupid words around like world class and elite all the time. Cavendish is a freak, a 'HC' sprinter. In a fair sprint with every top rider getting a chance, no one can get near him even if you are Cipo with a Zabel-Petacchi lead out train. The only other sprinter you can realistically call 'elite' at the moment is Greipel. There's a long and subjective gap back to whoever is third.

Sagan is a freak but he's only had one season of top line sprinting and may move away from that anyway.
Degenkolb needs an incline or hill and has faced the Quality of Opposition like he would in a Tour.
Kittel needs to stop being injured but he's on the upward, not there yet.
Pettachi is ready to get his Seniors card
Farrar has gone awol these last two seasons (for whatever reason).
The rest are either up coming talents or a bunch of B-grade sprinters

So Goss. Quite easily thrown in with those name and has shown and proven he can place highly and win a GT sprint. Being able to compete for the win is contesting, so movingtarget's original claim is just ignorance.

Sprinting is chaotic and a million things can go wrong. That's why even a rider like Cavendish doesn't have a perfect record. Trying to use him having the perfect day as a yardstick is stupid. Other sprinters can win and placing highly and consistently is a key indicator that he is has shown he is more than capable of.

'Perfect Day' arguists need to remember that on his day, Goss is less than a wheel off Cav, which not many current sprints can claim.

With more than 100 flat races/stages on the calendar, I have a simple definition for anyone wanting to call themselves a top level sprinter: deliver 10+ wins/season on average.

 

[Ferminal]

So Alex Serebryakov is a top sprinter and Goss is not?

 

[El Pistolero]

1. Cav
2. Greipel
3. Kittel
4. Sagan
5. Boonen
6. Degenkolb

And it wouldn't surprise me if Farrar was faster than Goss as well if he got back to his 2010 form.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

So Alex Serebryakov is a top sprinter and Goss is not?

lol, who knows. Serebryakov could continue to clock up the wins on Euskatel using Anton and Nieve as lead out train. Otoh Goss could suddenly come back and show he can beat the other sprinters on a regular basis in 2013.

Do you have a view as to what makes a sprinter Top Level?

 

[Ferminal]

Well it depends on how many you want to include.

You could easily argue that Cav is the only top sprinter as he consistently races against the best and beats them far more often than they beat him.

The next you would include is Greipel who wins many sprints and is consistently the closest to Cav when they race.

You could stop there, the next is probably Sagan.

After that you are comparing based on wins in substandard fields or strong performances in the best fields. But there is no way you can arbitrarily define it by a certain # of wins or a by average # of places behind Cav. You can only consider a combination of the two, as for me being "top" is not based on results but based on performance and a win in a ****ty field is no guarantee of strong performance.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Well it depends on how many you want to include.

You could easily argue that Cav is the only top sprinter as he consistently races against the best and beats them far more often than they beat him.

The next you would include is Greipel who wins many sprints and is consistently the closest to Cav when they race.

You could stop there, the next is probably Sagan.

After that you are comparing based on wins in substandard fields or strong performances in the best fields. But there is no way you can arbitrarily define it by a certain # of wins or a by average # of places behind Cav. You can only consider a combination of the two, as for me being "top" is not based on results but based on performance and a win in a ****ty field is no guarantee of strong performance.

Yes, model is not without issues.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

1. Cav
2. Greipel
3. Kittel
4. Sagan
5. Boonen
6. Degenkolb

And it wouldn't surprise me if Farrar was faster than Goss as well if he got back to his 2010 form.

I agree with the top 3. Gets a bit more muddy below those. In any case the sprint field seems quite deep and competitive these days.

 

[Gloin22]

I agree with the top 3. Gets a bit more muddy below those. In any case the sprint field seems quite deep and competitive these days.

Yep. I can see EBH, Bos, Demare or Kristoff ( etc. ) beat Boonen easily. I'd say Degenkolb is faster than Boonen too.

The 4 are undisputed for me. And then there's rest who can sometime beat the guys in top 3 / 4 but also are on very similar level and on good day they can win. Many examples of that, first one that came to mind ( no idea why ) was EBH beating Greipel, Sagan and likes in Tirreno last year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yep. I can see EBH, Bos, Demare or Kristoff ( etc. ) beat Boonen easily. I'd say Degenkolb is faster than Boonen too.

The 4 are undisputed for me. And then there's rest who can sometime beat the guys in top 3 / 4 but also are on very similar level and on good day they can win. Many examples of that, first one that came to mind ( no idea why ) was EBH beating Greipel, Sagan and likes in Tirreno last year.

Too bad he got beaten in Paris-Nice and the E3 Harelbeke. Shouldn't he have won if he was faster?

If Kristoff can easily beat Boonen in a sprint then why does he barely win any race? Why didn't he win the World Ports Classics if he's so much better? Or Paris-Brussels for that matter.

Bos his problem isn't speed, but getting at the finish fresh enough. That has always been a major problem for him.

Demare? The guy's a neo pro and still too young.

EBH? Lol, because he rides for Sky am I right?

 

[Gloin22]

Too bad he got beaten in Paris-Nice and the E3 Harelbeke. Shouldn't he have won if he was faster?

If Kristoff can easily beat Boonen in a sprint then why does he barely win any race? Why didn't he win the World Ports Classics if he's so much better? Or Paris-Brussels for that matter.

Bos his problem isn't speed, but getting at the finish fresh enough. That has always been a major problem for him.

Demare? The guy's a neo pro and still too young.

EBH? Lol, because he rides for Sky am I right?

Cobbled classics are different to normal sprints in stage races... same way as I didn't point out Worlds.. where Degenkolb beat Bonnen in sprint...

He got beat on one stage in Paris Nice. My god, what a disatser. Still had many stage wins this year.

Didn't you read what I said as well ?

And then there's rest who can sometime beat the guys in top 3 / 4 but also are on very similar level

Ie. Kristoff can beat Boonen sometimes, Boonen can beat Kristoff. The level field is pretty level..... Same as Bos ( agree on that part you said ) Demare or others...

So are you saiyng Demare is young and can't beat Boonen ? Lol. He already won a long-ish classic against Greipel and likes ..

 

[El Pistolero]

Cobbled classics are different to normal sprints in stage races...

He got beat on one stage in Paris Nice. My god, what a disatser. Still had many stage wins this...

Didn't you read what I said ?



Ie. Kristoff can beat Boonen sometimes, Boonen can beat Kristoff. The level field is pretty level.....

Do you have any examples of Kristoff winning a sprint and beating Boonen? Because I have many examples of Boonen beating Kristoff in a sprint.

E3 Harelbeke was a bunch sprint. Degenkolb wasted less energy during the race than Boonen and still lost.

Degenkolb had many stage wins? Sure, and did any of those races include anyone from my top 5 sprinter list? I think not. Degenkolb actually got beaten in every race that had a good sprinting field this year. Check CQranking if you don't believe me.

As for Demare, he's too young for me to pass any judgement on already. Haven't seen enough of him yet. He didn't do well in his first GT for example.

 

[Gloin22]

Do you have any examples of Kristoff winning a sprint and beating Boonen? Because I have many examples of Boonen beating Kristoff in a sprint.

E3 Harelbeke was a bunch sprint. Degenkolb wasted less energy during the race than Boonen and still lost.

Degenkolb had many stage wins? Sure, and did any of those races include anyone from my top 5 sprinter list? I think not.

Post Danmark Rundt
Few other sprinters stage

Plus on very similar level in Eneco Tour, World Ports Classic.

Not saying Kristoff is better sprinter. But on good day he can beat Boonen and the level of field after 4th rider in your list is very deep. Boonen can ceratinly loose in sprint to rider like Kristoff, EBH, or Degenkolb...

How do you know how much energy Degenkolb wasted ? Boonen is better cobble rider and can preserve more energy on cobbles anyway etc.

Still I think his speed is higher than Boonen. And he's faster. Pure and simple. We'll see this year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Post Danmark Rundt
Few other sprinters stage

Plus on very similar level in Eneco Tour, World Ports Classic.

Not saying Kristoff is better sprinter. But on good day he can beat Boonen and the level of field after 4th rider in your list is very deep. Boonen can ceratinly loose in sprint to rider like Kristoff, EBH, or Degenkolb...

How do you know how much energy Degenkolb wasted ? Boonen is better cobble rider and can preserve more energy on cobbles anyway etc.

Still I think his speed is higher than Boonen. And he's faster. Pure and simple. We'll see this year.

Lol, so you base this on one stage race where Boonen was trying to lead-out his teammate?

Obviously some lower ranked riders on my list can beat him sometimes, but does that mean Cav shouldn't be number one because he gets beaten sometimes? Strange logic you got there. I'm not sure you know how these lists work. Just because you're ranked higher doesn't mean you'll never be beaten by someone ranked lower.

Greipel has lost sprints againt Theo Bos and Demare(World Ports Classics and Vattenval Cyclassics respectively), but that doesn't mean I'll rank him lower than them. Consistency is key here.

Did you watch E3 Harelbeke? Boonen was active for most of the race, Degenkolb wasn't.

And exactly how were Boonen and Kristoff on a similar level during the World Ports Classic? He beat him twice. Even after doing a short solo on the (easy) cobbles during the first stage.

Anyway, my list is obviously based on this year alone. Next year things might be different again.

 

[Parrulo]

Guardini > all

on seriously note tho, guardini's top end speed is scary. . . i hope he improves his endurance and recovery so he can reach the finishing lines fresh and doesn't become another theo boss

 

[manolo]

... Stage 2 could potentially be a great stage. With that sharp uphill climb followed by a descent all the way to the finish, an attack will almost certainly stay away imo.

I haven't got quite through all the replies. Do people think only Stage 2 and Stage 5 are the only ones that might not end in a mass sprint? Are any of the stages, like the Old Willung one, exactly like last years'?

 

[Pentacycle]

Guardini > all

on seriously note tho, guardini's top end speed is scary. . . i hope he improves his endurance and recovery so he can reach the finishing lines fresh and doesn't become another theo boss

Or Marcel Kittel for that matter, climbs like a junior.

 

[The Hitch]

Lol, so you base this on one stage race where Boonen was trying to lead-out his teammate?

Obviously some lower ranked riders on my list can beat him sometimes, but does that mean Cav shouldn't be number one because he gets beaten sometimes? Strange logic you got there. I'm not sure you know how these lists work. Just because you're ranked higher doesn't mean you'll never be beaten by someone ranked lower.

Greipel has lost sprints againt Theo Bos and Demare(World Ports Classics and Vattenval Cyclassics respectively), but that doesn't mean I'll rank him lower than them. Consistency is key here.

Did you watch E3 Harelbeke? Boonen was active for most of the race, Degenkolb wasn't.

And exactly how were Boonen and Kristoff on a similar level during the World Ports Classic? He beat him twice. Even after doing a short solo on the (easy) cobbles during the first stage.

Anyway, my list is obviously based on this year alone. Next year things might be different again.

The thing about all these cobbled classics that you desperately hang onto for proof that boonen is the best sprinter in the world, is that those cobbled classics are tomekes raison detre. He spends half the year preparing for them and the other half resting for them.

So he arrives at 95-100%

None of the other sprinters spend months preparing a peak for the classics. They are.more 70-80%.

So all you are proving is that boonen can beat these guys when he is on red hot form and they are not. Which is still impressive but doesn't prove he's a better sprinter than them.

 

[Afrank]

Did you watch E3 Harelbeke? Boonen was active for most of the race, Degenkolb wasn't.

Boonen's (at this point) is a better cobble rider than Degenkolb (who is still young and learning the cobbles), just because he can beat him in a sprint at the end of a cobble race doesn't necessarily make him a overall better sprinter. I'm willing to bet if they went head to head in a sprint stage Degenkolb would be able to beat him.

Guardini > all

on seriously note tho, guardini's top end speed is scary. . . i hope he improves his endurance and recovery so he can reach the finishing lines fresh and doesn't become another theo boss

+1, I'm hoping Guardini can get me some CQ points.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Or Marcel Kittel for that matter, climbs like a junior.

there are so many of these flat races/stages that a guy like Bos can take 5-10 wins/year. Same with Kittel and Guardini. Just have to avoid parcours involving speed bumps etc.