2013 Vuelta a España CQ game

[murali]

theoretical best team:


MORKOV**Michael 70
MATTHEWS**Michael 102
HORNER**Christopher 98
RICHEZE**Maximiliano Ariel 80
BRAJKOVIC**Janez 35
ROCHE**Nicolas 74
TIRALONGO**Paolo 17
MEERSMAN**Gianni 49
MORENO FERNANDEZ**Daniel 110

total cost=3338, and earnings=635.

of the lot Morkov has already 50+% of his current cost(137).
i don't think anyone chose morkov though.

 

[Cyivel]

Appreciate the updates as always.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Just done my submission,
going with a tactic I was too scared to do last couple of GT games!

Ah well I'm off for a tomorrow, I'm curious to see what everybody did for their team when I return in a week

So I'm back now and I must say, I'm quite suprised to be the only one to pick Jrod!

 

[murali]

Fenn at last gives me 7 points.

congrats keith for picking stybar

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Ratto letting my Italian team down these past few days.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 7

One team opting for each of Stybar, Gilbert, Petit and Fenn (+ 4 for Jense van Rensberg), so well done to Keith James Mc (daily winner), Hilltop Finisher, Al Pacino, and Murali respectively.

Most point increases today were those collecting the red jersey bonus.

Guaranteed points
1 The Hitch 242
2 Batchuba 234
3 Cyivel 230
4 Karlboss 216
5 Afrank 213
6 Leadbelly 209
7 Just Some Guy 205
8 Keith James Mc 179
9 Minessa 174
10 Search 168
10 Tuarts 168
12 Pentacycle 167
13 Hilltop Finisher 165
14 Geraint Too Fast 155
15 Kazistuta 146
16 Jancouver 144
17 18-Valve 140
17 Al Pacino 140
19 MC Mountain 135
20 Mkind07 134
21 Vladimir 133
22 Blues in the Bottle 131
23 Yellow Knight 125
24 Oliveira 123
25 Comodoro 121
26 Karbonkel 105
27 Mutschi 103
28 Murali 92
29 DB Coop 74
30 Zlev 11 55
31 Armchair Cyclist 52
32 Gotland 40
33 Lightbing 39
34 Maaaaaaaarten 30
35 Jakob747 24
36 CQ Manager 10
36 Vitapen 10
38 Evans is the Best 8
38 Jpettersen 8
40 Mellow Velo 6
41 The Asian 5

Collective Wisdom team 141

 

[mutschi]

Just learned that I slipped from a top ten spot after Stage 3 to around 30iest spot because of 1000th of a second. In stage 4 Dominique Nerz crossed the line 1.001 second behind next rider and therefore caused a split in the peloton of 6 Seconds. As a result Horner lost red, Nibali gained it back and my slip towards the end of the table began. The same for all teams that chose Horner. I don't blame Nerz though. He is from my hometown and his uncle and dad were friends of mine and competing in cross country skiing. I am a big fan of him and I am sure his breakthrough will come after working hard for others for a few years now.

 

[murali]

The riders
On 21 teams (out of 41):VANENDERT Jelle
20 teams: ARROYO DURAN David, BASSO Ivan
17 teams: ANACONA GOMEZ Winner Andrew
16 teams: BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
13 teams: HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
12 teams: MATTHEWS Michael
11 teams: NIBALI Vincenzo, PINOT Thibaut
9 teams: BRAJKOVIC Janez
8 teams: HORNER Chris, MAJKA Rafal, SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel
7 teams: KÖNIG Leopold, LANDER Sebastian, SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon
6 teams: FARRAR Tyler, POZZOVIVO Domenico
5 teams: ARNDT Nikias, KISERLOVSKI Robert, POELS Wout

4 teams: COPPEL Jérôme, DE GENDT Thomas, DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David, HENDERSON Gregory, JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt, NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel, SCHORN Daniel, VALLS FERRI Rafael, ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar

3 teams: CAMAÑO ORTUZAR Iker, CAPECCHI Eros, EIJSSEN Yannick, GARATE CEPA Juan Manuel, LANDA MEANA Mikel, MEERSMAN Gianni, PINOTTI Marco, STAMSNIJDER Tom, URAN URAN Rigoberto, VANOTTI Alessandro

2 teams: ARAMENDIA LLORENTE Francisco Javier, BARGUIL Warren, BOLE Grega, BONO Matteo, BROWN Graeme, BUSCHE Matthew, CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins, COURTEILLE Arnaud, HOWES Alex, KOZONTCHUK Dmitriy, LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo, MATE MARDONES Luis Angel, MONDORY Lloyd, MONTAGUTI Matteo, NUYENS Nick, PETERSON Thomas, PINEAU Cédric, RATTO Daniele, ROCHE Nicolas, SARMIENTO TUNARROSA Cayetano Jose, SØRENSEN Chris Anker, SZMYD Sylwester, VAN DE WALLE Jurgen, VAN DER SANDE Tosh

Unique picks: ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor, BESSY Cyril, BOIVIN Guillaume, CHAINEL Steve, CLARKE Simon, COOKE Baden, DE CLERCQ Bart, DODI Luca, ELISSONDE Kenny, FAIRLY Caleb, FENN Andrew, FERNANDEZ DE LARREA PEREZ Koldo, FERRARI BARCELO Fabricio, FUGLSANG Jakob, GILBERT Philippe, GUTIERREZ PALACIOS Jose Ivan, HANSEN Adam, HUZARSKI Bartosz, KOHLER Martin, MARCZYNSKI Tomasz, MARKUS Barry, MARTIN Daniel, NERZ Dominik, NOCENTINI Rinaldo, PETIT Adrien, RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim, SANTAROMITA Ivan, SERRY Pieter, STYBAR Zdenek, TIRALONGO Paolo, TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets, VANSUMMEREN Johan, ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier

just a reminder to self, so that i can see how good popular choices are.

i had read a research 2 yrs ago, in which it was said that there is a high correlation between majority expectation and actual outcome.

 

[murali]

kicking myself for removing roche and konig from my selection.

wonderful ride by konig though.

 

[karlboss]

Moreno is looking like a good pick missed by everyone. If he finishes top 5 he'll be pretty much worth the cost.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 8
Konig: 70 points for 7 teams
Roche: 25+18 points for 2 teams
Pinot: 15 points for 11 teams
Basso: 10 points for 20 teams
De Clecq: 7 points for 1 team
Anton: 5 points for 1 team
Rodriguez: 2 points for 1 team
Uran:1 point for 1 team

The Lion King is on the teams of Cyivel, Tuarts, Search, Jancouver, Vladimir, Yellow Knight and Zlev11.
MC Mountain and Search have Roche.

The more observant will have noticed that Search is in both those lists: he is, unsurprisingly, the daily winner, as he was on stage 2.

Points from Konig and Basso put Cyivel in the lead in terms of guaranteed points.

Guaranteed points
1 Cyivel 310
2 Search 281
3 Batchuba 259
4 Tuarts 253
5 The Hitch 252
6 Karlboss 226
7 Afrank 223
8 Jancouver 215
9 Mkind07 214
10 Leadbelly 209
11 Just Some Guy 205
11 Yellow Knight 205
13 MC Mountain 193
14 Keith James Mc 189
15 Minessa 184
16 Pentacycle 182
17 Hilltop Finisher 180
18 Kazistuta 171
19 Geraint Too Fast 165
20 18-Valve 150
20 Al Pacino 150
22 Vladimir 138
23 Comodoro 132
24 Blues in the Bottle 131
25 Zlev 11 125
26 Oliveira 124
27 Karbonkel 120
28 Mutschi 113
29 Murali 92
30 DB Coop 74
31 Lightbing 61
32 Armchair Cyclist 52
33 Gotland 50
34 Vitapen 35
35 Evans is the Best 33
35 Jpettersen 33
37 Maaaaaaaarten 32
38 Jakob747 24
39 Mellow Velo 16
40 CQ Manager 10
41 The Asian 5

Collective Wisdom team 166


I hope to start factoring in projected overall points from today or tomorrow.

 

[Cyivel]

Hot flipping dang.

 

[murali]

search's idea of 50% earning potential seems to be working, at least in the case of roche(27%) and konig(38%). After factoring in the final gc points, they will definitely earn a lot more than 50% according to the current situation in the race.

in the 900s the choice was between uran and moreno. uran didn't click this time.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 9
The more successful riders today were unpopular expensive buys: Maaaaaarten's unique pick of Rodriguez got him the daily title. Sam Sánchez broke his duck for the eight teams that selected him.

Guaranteed points
Very few positional changes today.
1 Cyivel 315
2 Search 296
3 Batchuba 259
4 Tuarts 258
5 The Hitch 254
6 Karlboss 231
7 Afrank 228
8 Jancouver 220
9 Leadbelly 214
9 Mkind07 214
11 MC Mountain 208
12 Just Some Guy 205
12 Yellow Knight 205
14 Keith James Mc 199
15 Minessa 189
16 Hilltop Finisher 183
17 Pentacycle 182
18 Kazistuta 171
19 Geraint Too Fast 170
20 18-Valve 155
20 Al Pacino 155
22 Vladimir 144
23 Comodoro 142
24 Blues in the Bottle 141
25 Zlev 11 135
26 Oliveira 124
27 Karbonkel 120
28 Mutschi 113
29 Murali 92
30 DB Coop 74
31 Lightbing 61
32 Gotland 60
33 Maaaaaaaarten 57
34 Armchair Cyclist 52
35 Jpettersen 43
36 Vitapen 35
37 Evans is the Best 33
38 Jakob747 26
38 Mellow Velo 26
40 CQ Manager 17
41 The Asian 15

Collective Wisdom team 176

 

[murali]

amazing vuelta for horner.

he has already earned 2/3rd of his cq points in just 10 stages.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 10
Horner: 70+18 for 8 teams
Nibali: 40 points for 11 teams
Basso: 15 points for 20 teams
Rodríguez: 10 points for 1 team
Pinot: 7 points for 11 teams
Anton: 3 points for 1 team
Pozzovivo: 2 points for 6 teams
Majka: 1 point for 8 teams

The top six teams today combine Horner and Basso: Keith James Mc and Mutschi both also have Majka, but Batchubka has Pinot and, anagramatically, a point as daily victor.

Guaranteed points

1 Cyivel 370
2 Batchuba 369
3 The Hitch 357
4 Mkind07 317
5 Tuarts 305
6 Keith James Mc 303
6 Search 303
8 Just Some Guy 293
9 Karlboss 286
10 Afrank 283
11 Hilltop Finisher 280
12 Jancouver 260
13 Leadbelly 254
14 Comodoro 245
15 Minessa 244
16 Geraint Too Fast 227
17 MC Mountain 221
17 Yellow Knight 221
19 Mutschi 217
20 18-Valve 212
21 Al Pacino 210
22 Kazistuta 193
23 Pentacycle 190
24 Vladimir 187
25 Blues in the Bottle 141
26 Zlev 11 136
27 Karbonkel 129
28 Oliveira 124
29 Murali 92
30 DB Coop 76
30 Gotland 76
32 Lightbing 68
33 Maaaaaaaarten 67
34 Jpettersen 66
35 Vitapen 57
36 Evans is the Best 55
37 Armchair Cyclist 52
38 Mellow Velo 41
39 Jakob747 26
40 CQ Manager 17
41 The Asian 15

Collective Wisdom team 198

 

[karlboss]

i may have more points than I had for the tour already.

 

[murali]

i may have more points than I had for the tour already.

c'mon. you have chosen nibali, matthews and basso. with basso just warming up, you are in a very good stride.

luckily no one chose a nibali-horner combination. otherwise, i think the topper would have been decided by now.

Should we read anything into dani moreno's performance yesterday, or is it just that one allowed bad day?

========

The theoretical best combination so far is:

MORENO FERNANDEZ  Daniel
STYBAR  Zdenek
ROCHE  Nicolas
HORNER  Christopher
MATTHEWS  Michael
RICHEZE  Maximiliano Ariel
KONIG  Leopold
BRAJKOVIC  Janez
MORKOV  Michael
cqpoints cost=3341(159 to spare).
earnings = 1010

with MORKOV  Michael, RICHEZE  Maximiliano Ariel, MORENO FERNANDEZ  Daniel; not selected by anyone afaik.

among those selected, afaik, the best combination is:


MEERSMAN  Gianni
STYBAR  Zdenek
ROCHE  Nicolas
FARRAR  Tyler
BASSO  Ivan
HORNER  Christopher
MATTHEWS  Michael
KONIG  Leopold
BRAJKOVIC  Janez
earning 725 points, with cost of 3466.
collective wisdom members are in bold, contributing just 166 pts(22.9%).
Matthews is the only pick of the collective wisdom to feature in all the lists on his own right. Brajkovic (with cost of 178) gets included as he has scored some points and is cheap.

 

[karlboss]

c'mon. you have chosen nibali, matthews and basso. with basso just warming up, you are in a very good stride.

luckily no one chose a nibali-horner combination. otherwise, i think the topper would have been decided by now.

Should we reada anything into dani moreno's performance yesterday, or is it just that one allowed bad day?

For the tour i had brajkovic, pinot, van den broeck, bouhanni, etc...not hard to outscore that combo. I can't remember who else but i have a feeling zubeldia and rolland were in there too. The painful part was I was looking at a team with kreuziger and Quintana, but assumed they would be completely screwed over by Contador and Valverde.

I think a slightly bad day for moreno, he wasn't that far behind the Nibali group, I'd still be tipping around 5th overall.

 

[murali]

For the tour i had brajkovic, pinot, van den broeck, bouhanni, etc...not hard to outscore that combo. I can't remember who else but i have a feeling zubeldia and rolland were in there too. The painful part was I was looking at a team with kreuziger and Quintana, but assumed they would be completely screwed over by Contador and Valverde.

I think a slightly bad day for moreno, he wasn't that far behind the Nibali group, I'd still be tipping around 5th overall.

quintana for tdf, incidentally, was approximately as costly as moreno for this vuelta. i don't think that anyone chose moreno in this vuelta.

 

[karlboss]

quintana for tdf, incidentally, was approximately as costly as moreno for this vuelta. i don't think that anyone chose moreno in this vuelta.

Quintana for the tour would have needed to come 3rd to be worthwhile. 20/20 hindsight. I thought he may be the 2nd or 3rd strongest but working for Valverde would be somewhere 5-10.

No one chose Moreno, I think to make things worthwhile he needs to finish 5th. But with some more good stage results only in the top 10. I think he'd have been a good pick, but right now the great value picks are looking to be roche horner and basso. Pinot...we'll see

 

[murali]

Quintana for the tour would have needed to come 3rd to be worthwhile. 20/20 hindsight. I thought he may be the 2nd or 3rd strongest but working for Valverde would be somewhere 5-10.

No one chose Moreno, I think to make things worthwhile he needs to finish 5th. But with some more good stage results only in the top 10. I think he'd have been a good pick, but right now the great value picks are looking to be roche horner and basso. Pinot...we'll see

you missed matthews in the value pick. In the form that he is in, another couple of top-3 stage finishes is very likely.

 

[search]

we will see, there are only three (maybe 4, but I think stage 13 is too hard) more possible stages for the sprinters, one of them will propably end up with a breakaway taking the win, and Greenedge still has Howard who they could give a go in one of the others

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Stage 10 projected final points
Allocating CQ points for GC and the points and mountain rankings as though these were to finish now, as well as the guaranteed points (stage points + leader bonuses) shown in the other tables.

1 Batchuba 1562
2 Keith James Mc 1440
3 Mkind07 1429
4 The Hitch 1345
5 Comodoro 1263
5 Cyivel 1263
7 Mutschi 1251
8 Hilltop Finisher 1250
9 Search 1162
10 Tuarts 1151
11 MC Mountain 1128
12 Just Some Guy 1123
13 Afrank 1073
14 18-Valve 1071
15 Minessa 1057
16 Karlboss 1032
17 Geraint Too Fast 1027
18 Yellow Knight 995
19 Al Pacino 989
20 Jancouver 972
21 Vladimir 789
22 Jpettersen 788
23 Leadbelly 761
24 Kazistuta 739
25 Zlev 11 731
26 Pentacycle 729
27 Gotland 658
28 Karbonkel 610
29 Vitapen 570
30 Evans is the Best 548
31 Lightbing 509
32 Maaaaaaaarten 501
33 Mellow Velo 478
34 DB Coop 460
35 Oliveira 400
36 Blues in the Bottle 389
37 Armchair Cyclist 341
38 CQ Manager 266
39 Murali 265
40 Jakob747 264
41 The Asian 262

Collective Wisdom team 825

 

[karlboss]

you missed matthews in the value pick. In the form that he is in, another couple of top-3 stage finishes is very likely.

Well I picked him so not really I was of course referring to GC value picks. For stages, Morkov and Richeze were also good picks. Moving forward I think they could both continue to be good picks.