2013 WC in Firenze - Who will win?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I won't be online until later on again but I'll take it. You take my Martin avatar(the one I use)if I win and I'll take a Gesink one if your choice of you win.

Deal?

Friendly bet for interest.

Deal I'll take it

 

[The Blues]

Cancellara is strong enough to win this, but he'll be heavily marked which will make it hard for him. And, just for the record, he said earlier this year that he wants to have a go at the ardennes in a few years (maybe even 2014, but I don't think that's going to happen).

 

[Rollthedice]

He is as good a classic Rider as he used to be a GT rider...

Remember how that went down...?

Have you seen how Sagan dropped him like a stone in Quebec on a small hill? How he faded yesterday in Montreal on another hill after he was trying desperately to make himself remarked during the late stages of the race? Do you think he can improve in 2 weeks? Leave him with his Tour. He's now back at Barloworld level.

 

[EnacheV]

The most entertaining situation would be after a Froome WC victory

The forums would be an orgasmic place

Also, colombians option is missing from the pool, also Horner and Vino option should be one

 

[Pentacycle]

The most entertaining situation would be after a Froome WC victory

The forums would be an orgasmic place

Also, colombians option is missing from the pool, also Horner and Vino option should be one

CN will have its most epic crash so far. Down for the remainder of the year.

 

[Samson777]

Have you seen how Sagan dropped him like a stone in Quebec on a small hill? How he faded yesterday in Montreal on another hill after he was trying desperately to make himself remarked during the late stages of the race? Do you think he can improve in 2 weeks? Leave him with his Tour. He's now back at Barloworld level.

YES. But since this is not the clinic, let's leave it with that..

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Form. Gesink has just been awesome in Canada, on a hard course similar to the worlds.
Dan Martin had a hard fall in the Vuelta and is probably not so close to his LBL winning form

Quite easy actually. People like you don't understand form, at all..

Gesink is clearly in form. Martin may or may not be in form, depending on a whole bunch of factors. And form is obviously important.

But ability is also a factor. Martin has more of the attributes of a great classics rider on paper, and in practice he has a much better record. If he has form, and if having a small team doesn't screw him, he is a more legitimate contender than Gesink by a margin.

Mollema, Martin's cycling style twin, also has more than Gesink on paper, at least in my view, but hasn't yet produced it in practice in the big one day races.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink is clearly in form. Martin may or may not be in form, depending on a whole bunch of factors. And form is obviously important.

But ability is also a factor. Martin has more of the attributes of a great classics rider on paper, and in practice he has a much better record. If he has form, and if having a small team doesn't screw him, he is a more legitimate contender than Gesink by a margin.

Mollema, Martin's cycling style twin, also has more than Gesink on paper, at least in my view, but hasn't yet produced it in practice in the big one day races.

Actually Mollema rode top 10 in nearly all hilly classics on WT level there is. Without specifically peaking for them.. Hell this year he was top 10 in AGR and FW while being sick a few days prior.
But right now Mollema is not in the shape to do much at the worlds I think

 

[gooner]

Deal I'll take it

We shake hands on it. We're good.

Confirmed it here on the avatar bet thread.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=1341521#post1341521

 

[*G*K*S*]

EBH ftw. Little Norway gets another one.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

So who is Italy sending to help Nibbles this year? Nibbles and Pozzato is confirmed. Ponzi, Visconti, Basso (?), Gaspa, Cunego, Noncentini and Pellizotti would be my dream team.

 

[Netserk]

So who is Italy sending to help Nibbles this year? Nibbles and Pozzato is confirmed. Ponzi, Visconti, Basso (?), Gaspa, Cunego, Noncentini and Pellizotti would be my dream team.

Check out this thread:
forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=21389

You lazy ****er

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Check out this thread:
http://www.forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=21389

You lazy ****er

Link doesn't work. is it team list? I am to lazy to find out on my own...

edit: ah, yes team election thread. Had forgot about it

 

[Netserk]

Link doesn't work. is it team list? I am to lazy to find out on my own...

Now it works. It's a thread here in the PRR section.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Now it works. It's a thread here in the PRR section.

With that team, Nibali will win for sure. Vanotti do destroy the field

 

[Flamin]

Completelly different races. Quebec was his race to lose the same as MSR. He has nothing to lose in WC and he will enjoy it. I have a feeling he will play the same game as Cance in MSR: "I do not care loosing as long as Fabian won´t win". ...and somebody else will be laughing at the end.

What do you mean? That it wouldn't bother him much if others just sit on his wheel during the Worlds, but in Quebec it did?

He won't play that game, it's Sagan we're talking about also disagree with Canc playing that game in MSR.

 

[The Hitch]

Because he is such a great classics rider.

/Sarcasm.

How many gt riders are there that can't ride a classic?

Recent gt winners. Have they top 10d a monument (in all cases obv Liege or Lombardia)

Horner- yes
Froome - no
Nibali - yes
Contador - yes
Wiggins -no
Hejsdeal - yes
Cobo- no
Evans- yes
Scarponi - yes
Nibali-yes
Schleck-yes
Basso-yes
Valverde-yes
Contador-yes
Menchov-no
Contador-yes
Sastre-no
Contador-yes
Menchov-no
Contador-yes
Di Luca-yes
Vino-yes
Pereiro-no
Basso-yes

Seems to me being a gt contender is strongly correlated with being good in hard classics.

To you it may seem like a coincidence of 2 totally independent abilities.

To me however it suggest that if you are a good climber then in races with lots of climbing like the monuments, you will find it a lot easier and find yourself remaining with the favourites when the selection is made. Especially if you have a team of 8 around you like Froome will.

Now add in the fact that Froome is by far away the best climber in the world and possibly the best climber of all time, and that more than offsets any disadvantages of never having ridden a classic before.

 

[tomorrow]

What do you mean? That it wouldn't bother him much if others just sit on his wheel during the Worlds, but in Quebec it did?

He won't play that game, it's Sagan we're talking about also disagree with Canc playing that game in MSR.

Well, I think, that he was pointing out, that Fabian didn't mind to loose unless Sagan won MSR and that Sagan would play this game in the worlds. However I don't think this would happen and there are 2 reasons for this:
1. The only thing which is in sagan's viewfinder is the win. nothing else counts. So if he see's that everybody is trying tire him, he will risk to just another suicide attack and hope it will stick like it did in GW and Montreal. I think he a little advantage here compared to Cancellara. That little amount of power, that Sagan can produce momentarily compared to Fabian, enables Sagan to break clear from everyone even though they are marking him(well everyone besides Fabian actually). Fabian is not ofte able to do this (proof of this is the number of races fabian lost to some wheelsucker) . Sagan on the other hand, seems he might be able to do it in most occasions. He wouldn't get Cioleked if there weren't for Fabian in MSR too.
2.There so much people that are interested in the win, that Sagan, and Cancellara too will not have to catch all the attacks themselves. There might occur such situation, but if, then it will be in the very end of the race and with that, they can cope very well. If they are on front before the last short hill, then one of them winning is almost sure thing. Not sure they will be up front in the part though.

 

[tomorrow]

could somebody answer me a question. Who will benefit more from the big distance, climbers or punchers? Haven't seen much so hard and so long races, so I can't do this math myself. I have a feeling that after so many kms, the climbers will not have the strength to make the pace high enough to drop the punchers, but still, it's just my hypothesis which I am not sure at all.

 

[Shardi]

could somebody answer me a question. Who will benefit more from the big distance, climbers or punchers? Haven't seen much so hard and so long races, so I can't do this math myself. I have a feeling that after so many kms, the climbers will not have the strength to make the pace high enough to drop the punchers, but still, it's just my hypothesis which I am not sure at all.

The long distance favors Cancellara most of all. The likelyhood of the skinny GC guys to drop him the last way up the fiesole is much smaller after 270 km than after lets say 200 km.

I wouldn't go as far as to say noone has the ability to land a devastating blow. Many of the contenders have launched brutal attacks after 250km in monuments or similar races before.

I'm hoping that the pace will be so high that there will only be a few strong men who rides the rest of their wheels, but if the favourites sense that they are equally matched with 2 laps to go, some 2nd tier rider might go from far out, not getting marked by the big guns.

A few suspects in this cathegory that comes to mind are: Voeckler, Costa, Iglinsky, Paolini, Pozzato, Kreuziger.

The hard part is to anticipate the form of the 2nd tier contenders. Some may have come into excellent form without stamping their authority on the last WT races prior to the worlds (vuelta, canada GPs).

Anyone care to investigate the shape of the "2nd tier attack from 2 laps out" riders?

 

[tomorrow]

Voeckler, Costa, Iglinsky, Paolini, Pozzato, Kreuziger.
.....

Anyone care to investigate the shape of the "2nd tier attack from 2 laps out" riders?

Well, I would add also Konig to that list, or maybe instead of Kreuziger, he didn't show much in Vuelta, I think his form will be still dropping since the tour.

 

[Shardi]

The tactics of this race may very well dictate the outcome. In general, a tough selective course makes the difference between a leader and a domestique takes a greater toll on the outcome.
This plays into the hands of a 2nd tier contender to go on the attack, since it will be more likely that a domestique of a favourite wont be able to keep up which forces the main contenders to play their hand.

Question is, who of the main contenders have the best support, and better yet, who has support that is good enough to keep up with the 2nd tier contenders, letting their leader only focus on his 2-3 main rivals.

A scary thing might happen here. We may actually see a race where cancellara has team support for most of the race. If his swiss team can close down penultimate lap attacks etc, then I think he can win from any point on the course. I bet my n*ts that Cancellara could drop both Nibali and Sanchez on the fiesole downhill even.

However, other teams like Spain has the ability to control the race, IF.. They can establish a pecking order and work for eachother. It worked good last year at Valkenburg, contador pulling all the way on the last lap to the cauberg. But on this course, will Sanchez and purito close down attacks for valverde, Moreno or vice versa..?

Hoping that Gilbert has the climbing ability he showed in 2011 and at last worlds. But it is abit suspect that he has only shown attacks on relatively flat stages and mixing it up in almost flat sprints. He has not shown any reasonable results when the hills ramp up, which could be an issue with the fiesole.. Who knows, might've just been chance... But usually decisions like where to contend are reasonably well founded, and that this year he simply doesn't have the same uphill ability..

 

[spalco]

I voted for the guy I want to win, Cancellara.

But is he really as much of a favourite as people think here? Are there any betting odds yet?

 

[greenedge]

I think Cancellara will win because Sagan will attack at least once. That attack may work but it may not- he just has to stick to Cancellaras' wheel- but that is easier said than done.

Watch out for Colombia, France and Australia to take on Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Slovakia, Italy and Switzerland.

What's the news on Dan Martin, has he recovered from his crash?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

snipped...

What's the news on Dan Martin, has he recovered from his crash?

He looked ok yesterday in ToB.