2014 Milan-San Remo, Mar 23rd (294 Km)

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Who will win?

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Mar 9, 2010
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it's pretty much impossible that cancellara can win this.

my prediction, the race will be won by someone out of a small group that cance tows to victory. he can ride cavendish and greipel off. it's not selective enough to keep degenkolb out of it though.

if sagan is in the group at the finish cance will sit up and opqs might bring cav back in it.

in each scenario i see sagan with a 25% chance of winning and an almost certain podium.

i'm voting 'other' however. i put sagan's chances at 25%, 10% for degenkolb and cav. i've got spartacus at 0.01% chance. on the other hand it's pretty much 50/50 that someone not on the pre-race faves list will take it.

my guess is that cance blows the field apart on poggio and the descent taking 5-8 guys including sagan and degenkolb. then some super strong cagey ******* steals it.

there're about 25 guys on the startlist who can fill this role. should be fun. i love msr!:D
 
spanky wanderlust said:
it's pretty much impossible that cancellara can win this.

my prediction, the race will be won by someone out of a small group that cance tows to victory. he can ride cavendish and greipel off. it's not selective enough to keep degenkolb out of it though.

if sagan is in the group at the finish cance will sit up and opqs might bring cav back in it.

in each scenario i see sagan with a 25% chance of winning and an almost certain podium.

i'm voting 'other' however. i put sagan's chances at 25%, 10% for degenkolb and cav. i've got spartacus at 0.01% chance. on the other hand it's pretty much 50/50 that someone not on the pre-race faves list will take it.

my guess is that cance blows the field apart on poggio and the descent taking 5-8 guys including sagan and degenkolb. then some super strong cagey ******* steals it.

there're about 25 guys on the startlist who can fill this role. should be fun. i love msr!:D

You're right Cancellara probably won't win. But, like the last several years he could podium.

As far as Cav making it in the winning group- it's hard to say. If they ride hard they can drop him, but he has a very strong team around him. The other teams better not take him lightly. He's definitely a favorite.
 
Aug 16, 2011
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Captain Serious said:
Does anyone know roughly what time in eastern Australia the race will finish?
2am?

Cyclingfans lists finish at 5:10 CET, so convert that to your time.
 
i do remember one year were i think it either went live at the start for an hour till the break went then came back a few hours later on when they came on they built up with half hour to an hour of the race so far.
 
wirral said:
In a hypothetical parallel universe where the break stays away, who wins it from those 7?

Parrinello is a very good sprinter and in excellent shape (4th in Roma Maxima). This is a different beast though, so I'd probably pick Barta or Haas.


Gap is 8 minutes after 50 km.