it's pretty much impossible that cancellara can win this.
my prediction, the race will be won by someone out of a small group that cance tows to victory. he can ride cavendish and greipel off. it's not selective enough to keep degenkolb out of it though.
if sagan is in the group at the finish cance will sit up and opqs might bring cav back in it.
in each scenario i see sagan with a 25% chance of winning and an almost certain podium.
i'm voting 'other' however. i put sagan's chances at 25%, 10% for degenkolb and cav. i've got spartacus at 0.01% chance. on the other hand it's pretty much 50/50 that someone not on the pre-race faves list will take it.
my guess is that cance blows the field apart on poggio and the descent taking 5-8 guys including sagan and degenkolb. then some super strong cagey ******* steals it.
there're about 25 guys on the startlist who can fill this role. should be fun. i love msr!