2014 Milan-San Remo, Mar 23rd (294 Km)

[Michele]

Risk of rain should be little at least for the finishing kms and not too strong winds.

 

[Flamin]

I'm afraid it will be a bunch sprint of at least 30-40 riders. But hopefully some teams, like BMC, go all in on Cipressa and then who knows. Though the headwind will make it difficult for a longe range move.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

To sum up most people vote him coz they think he is a better favourite for the bunch sprint than Cav,Sagan and Greipel

-Cav: Won't be there at the end
-Greipel: not yet in the best form, Degenkolb can definitely beat him
-Sagan: will not wait for a sprint, but spend all his energy on poggio

I voted Boonen btw, for exactly the same reason:

 

[Dazed and Confused]

So Phinney drops out, but BMC still have solid options to play:

61.GILBERT Philippe
62.HUSHOVD Thor
63.LODEWYCK Klaas
64.QUINZIATO Manuel
65.SCHAR Michael
66.VAN AVERMAET Greg
67.VELITS Peter
68.WYSS Danilo

GVA to attack on Cipressa?

 

[Kwibus]

Forecast for Sunday isnt all too bad. I guess we can expect the occasional shower, but nothing to awful really.

 

[Wallenquist]

What about wind forecast for the last 3km ?

 

[Kwibus]

What about wind forecast for the last 3km ?

13km/h SW wind.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Not mentioning Degenkolb among the biggest favorites is insane. He's the best climbing sprinter besides Sagan, and I'd rate him slightly faster than Sagan, especially this year.

 

[Wallenquist]

13km/h SW wind.

So.. pretty much headwind ? Bigger chance for sprint finish then.

 

[trevim]

1)he wont win bunch sprint,there are Cav,Greipel,Demare,Sagan and even guys like Matthews can beat him in a sprint
2)there is like 5%chance in his scenario that in this group won't be Sagan or Cancellara,first will beat him in a sprint,the second will shake off him before sprint
3)seriously?

1) Yeah Matthews is a world beater. (Not that he can't do it but please don't put him alongside Cav, GReipel or even Demare.)
2) Sprints after 300km are rather unpredictable; just remember Ciolek.
3) I agree with this one: seriously? Have you ever noticed how agressive Degenkolb rides sometimes in the classics?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

1) Yeah Matthews is a world beater. (Not that he can't do it but please don't put him alongside Cav, GReipel or even Demare.)
2) Sprints after 300km are rather unpredictable; just remember Ciolek.
3) I agree with this one: seriously? Have you ever noticed how agressive Degenkolb rides sometimes in the classics?

that had nothing to do with the distance but with teh cold

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Gerrans also out of MSR, Sickness.
CN write up here: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gerrans-ruled-out-of-milan-san-remo

So thats two former MSR winners gone from the lineup.

Team:
151.LANCASTER Brett [new]
152.CLARKE Simon
153.DURBRIDGE Luke
154.HAYMAN Mathew
155.IMPEY Daryl
156.KEUKELEIRE Jens
157.MATTHEWS Michael
158.TUFT Svein

Matthews? Not quite buying him.

 

[karlboss]

Gerrans also out of MSR, Sickness.
CN write up here: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gerrans-ruled-out-of-milan-san-remo

So thats two former MSR winners gone from the lineup.

Team:
151.LANCASTER Brett [new]
152.CLARKE Simon
153.DURBRIDGE Luke
154.HAYMAN Mathew
155.IMPEY Daryl
156.KEUKELEIRE Jens
157.MATTHEWS Michael
158.TUFT Svein

Matthews? Not quite buying him.

More faith in Impey.

 

[Arredondo]

They rather should have taken Goss with them. You never know.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

More faith in Impey.

yea, probably. I would send Tuft and Durbridge in the morning break and see what happens.

 

[Poursuivant]

I think Gilbert is looking a lot better than last year, I don't think he will be too far away. As always, it will depend on how hard Cannondale go on the Poggio to drop Cav and co.

 

[Roude Leiw]

They rather should have taken Goss with them. You never know.

Some times you DO know and hence you take this kind of decision

A shame that Gerrans is out, the less punchers, the clearer it will be for a sprint arrival

 

[Hugo87]

I'm afraid it will be a bunch sprint of at least 30-40 riders. But hopefully some teams, like BMC, go all in on Cipressa and then who knows. Though the headwind will make it difficult for a longe range move.

Probably will be, checking results before 2008, it's almost a pattern.

 

[Jancouver]

God of Thunder to strike lightning fast sprint for the glory only Thor can deliver.

 

[wirral]

God of Thunder to strike lightning fast sprint for the glory only Thor can deliver.

I like your post but consider it really unlikely.

 

[Jspear]

Gerrans out of Milan.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gerrans-ruled-out-of-milan-san-remo

Seems like several have had to step out because of sickness.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Why on earth 35 people voted for Degenkolb?
Yes,he is good type of rider for this race,he even has a great form but...
Imo there are only 3 scenarios how the race will unfold 1)bunch sprint 2)small group finish 3)individual winner

1)he wont win bunch sprint,there are Cav,Greipel,Demare,Sagan and even guys like Matthews can beat him in a sprint
2)there is like 5%chance in his scenario that in this group won't be Sagan or Cancellara,first will beat him in a sprint,the second will shake off him before sprint
3)seriously?

1) Démare was underwhelming last year for his debut in this race but since the conditions were exceptional, I am ready to cut him some slack. Certainly he will be much stronger this time around but it is really not saying much. He still has to prove he can make the front group let alone be fresh enough to threaten the top guys. The last two times, Démare and Degenkolb sprinted against each other, Degenkolb won both times. Greipel has never even made the group with the best sprinters (let alone the winning break) in his life. At 31 how much could he have improved on his climbing ? Besides, Degenkolb has already beaten Greipel in classics that were much easier (and therefore play more into Greipel's strengths than MSR) so Degenkolb would be the favorite should they sprint against each other at the end of 300kms. Cavendish is a real problem for Degenkolb but he also has to make the front group, which is something he has struggled with in the past albeit on harder courses. This time around, Cavendish (and Greipel) decided to ride MSR fairly late instead of having it as a main goal since before the season even started so they probably won't be in as good a form as they usually are. Degenkolb, on the other hand, has had is sights on MSR for months and will be in top shape, so it's as good a chance to beat the best sprinters in the world as he'll ever get.

2) If Degenkolb finishes in the lead group with Cancellara, the Swiss will drop him. So Degenkolb finishes in the front group, he'll finish with a time gap behind Cancellara which would therefore be in front of the race leaders. Amazing logic right there. Cancellara might drop Degenkolb and finish it off alone. It wouldn't be the first time, but then it wouldn't be a small group finish and therefore doesn't count in this category. Do you really expect Degenkolb not to make it to a hypothetical select group that may form on the Poggio ? Worst climbers than him have and on harder courses too. Unless you have information we don't, everything that we saw this year suggests that Degenkolb can and will make the cut. How can you be so sure Sagan will beat Degenkolb in a sprint ? Sure, Sagan would probably finish ahead more often than not but certainly not everytime. Degenkolb beat him at the world championships in 2012 on a course better suited to Sagan, so Degenkolb certainly has the ability to beat Sagan in the classics. In MSR 2012, Sagan had a free ride on Degenkolb's wheel as the German tried to close down the lead trio in the final kilometers. Degenkolb also launched the sprint from way too far out because of the front group and yet Sagan barely came around Degenkolb to take 4th. Sagan also botched it last year so it's not like he is unbeatable in this kind of finishes and Degenkolb is certainly good enough to take advantage of any mistakes Sagan might make. Beside Sagan is in front of Degenkolb in the poll, as it shoud be, so I don't really see the problem.

3) The only rider to have won solo in the last decade is Cancellara in 2008. The course was harder than this year and he was in stellar form coming of wins in Strade Bianche and Tirreno. Despite all this, he still barely hold off the chasers. I don't see anyone looking as strong at the start, so I'll say that it is unlikely that someone wins solo this year and that therefore, the unlikeliness of Degenkolb winning in that scenario is pretty irrelevant for his overall chance of success.

 

[wirral]

I wish the Schlecks were riding.

 

[thehog]

http://embed.vpro.nl/popout/?id=VPW...olume=0.9&muted=0&streaming=0&currenttime=7.7

Dutch but mostly in Italian documentary on MSR. Fusing food, flowers, beauty and wine with the race. Worth watching even for the Cavendish interview.

 

[Afrank]

I think Gilbert is looking a lot better than last year, I don't think he will be too far away. As always, it will depend on how hard Cannondale go on the Poggio to drop Cav and co.

Even without the Pompeiana he's been talking about how this race is still a big target for him and one of the classics he hasn't won yet. I think he'll be out to try to do something to get in a winning break or create one on the Poggio. Will be interesting to see if all his talk and hyping of himself is true or just talk.