2014 Milan-San Remo, Mar 23rd (294 Km)

[Buffalo Soldier]

Why on earth 35 people voted for Degenkolb?
Yes,he is good type of rider for this race,he even has a great form but...
Imo there are only 3 scenarios how the race will unfold 1)bunch sprint 2)small group finish 3)individual winner

1)he wont win bunch sprint,there are Cav,Greipel,Demare,Sagan and even guys like Matthews can beat him in a sprint
2)there is like 5%chance in his scenario that in this group won't be Sagan or Cancellara,first will beat him in a sprint,the second will shake off him before sprint
3)seriously?

4) Did you even see Vattenfall last year?

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Edit:I dont think that 35 people who knows a lot about cycling voted him coz of your point from that picture

You don't think the sporza journalists know anything of cycling?

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/140320_MSR_prono

 

[ILovecycling]

3rd year? Gerrans wasn't a top shelf pick either.

I dont agree.He had the edge on others on scenarios 3) and partly 2)
Same Goss,back then he was one of the two favourites in scenario no. 1)

Degenkolb is not a Top3 favourite on of those

1)Cav,Greipel,Demare (Sagan)
2)Cancellara,Sagan,Kwiatkowski (Stybar)
3)Cancellara,Gerrans,Kreuziger (Chavanel)

 

[Afrank]

...
There is a better likeliness that Sir Brad will win the Tour again than there will be as surprise MSR winner second year in a row imo.

Edit:I dont think that 35 people who knows a lot about cycling voted him coz of your point from that picture

MSR is perhaps one of if not the most unpredictable of all the one days. At 300 Km's, the ascent and descent of the Poggio in the final, and the number of strong attackers that will be looking to create a break and sprinters who will be looking to bring it back; a surprise winner is always possible. And if we happen to get adverse weather then the chance of a surprise winner increases even more. In MSR anything could happen.

And I don't even consider Degenkolb a surprise winner. He could definitely take the win. He has what it takes to be in the mix in a bunch sprint or in a breakaway sprint. A lot stranger things have happened in cycling then Degenkolb winning a bunch or breakaway sprint after 300 Km's of racing (and I don't mean clinic stuff).

 

[Wallenquist]

I dont agree.He had the edge on others on scenarios 3) and partly 2)
Same Goss,back then he was one of the two favourites in scenario no. 1)

Degenkolb is not a Top3 favourite on of those

1)Cav,Greipel,Demare (Sagan)
2)Cancellara,Sagan,Kwiatkowski (Stybar)
3)Cancellara,Gerrans,Kreuziger (Chavanel)

The point is that the most likely scanario is bunch sprint from 30-40 guys and there is a big possibility that both Greipel and Cave won't be there so the three would be: Sagan, Demare, Degenkolb.

 

[ILovecycling]

4) Did you even see Vattenfall last year?

You don't think the sporza journalists know anything of cycling?

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/140320_MSR_prono

Of course I did,I watch every cycling race which is broadcasted.

They are probably one of the best commentators.
But,their method is wrong.They pick their riders by their abilities and form for particular race not possible scenarios of the race,coz they wouldnt say that Degenkolb is one of the biggest favourites.
The unlikeliness of Degenkolb win is big enough to not have more than 10 votes in this poll.
I think he will be in top3/4 in scenario no.1),thats pretty obvious.

 

[kingjr]

In a sprint in MSR I'd rate Degenkolb higher than Greipel but we'll see.

 

[webbie146]

Cav lost weight for this and looks thin, hope he takes it.

 

[Wallenquist]

Cav lost weight for this and looks thin, hope he takes it.

It's not that easy. Weight is not the factor for Cave now, he has to be in top shape to be able to stay in front after Poggio. And few weeks ago he didn't even plan to race here, he was 100% focussed on Tour even skipping the Giro.

 

[ILovecycling]

MSR is perhaps one of if not the most unpredictable of all the one days. At 300 Km's, the ascent and descent of the Poggio in the final, and the number of strong attackers that will be looking to create a break and sprinters who will be looking to bring it back; a surprise winner is always possible. And if we happen to get adverse weather then the chance of a surprise winner increases even more. In MSR anything could happen.

And I don't even consider Degenkolb a surprise winner. He could definitely take the win. He has what it takes to be in the mix in a bunch sprint or in a breakaway sprint. A lot stranger things have happened in cycling then Degenkolb winning a bunch or breakaway sprint after 300 Km's of racing (and I don't mean clinic stuff).

Of course,but I think every voter votes according to the possibility ,thats why number of D votes is a mystery for me

The point is that the most likely scanario is bunch sprint from 30-40 guys and there is a big possibility that both Greipel and Cave won't be there so the three would be: Sagan, Demare, Degenkolb.

Ahh,interesting.Then its possible for you to vote for him.Imo when Cav and Greipel arent here,than it means there was a puncher carnage and so there is no D in the final either.Matter of opinion of course

In a sprint in MSR I'd rate Degenkolb higher than Greipel but we'll see.

I get it.So its a reasonable vote.

To sum up most people vote him coz they think he is a better favourite for the bunch sprint than Cav,Sagan and Greipel

 

[webbie146]

It's not that easy. Weight is not the factor for Cave now, he has to be in top shape to be able to stay in front after Poggio. And few weeks ago he didn't even plan to race here, he was 100% focussed on Tour even skipping the Giro.

I know He did say he performed specific training for MSR

 

[kingjr]

To sum up most people vote him coz they think he is a better favourite for the bunch sprint than Cav,Sagan and Greipel

bunch sprint =/= bunch sprint.

See Vattenfall last year

 

[RiccoDinko]

Slagter will bring Garmin the Goods.

 

[ILovecycling]

bunch sprint =/= bunch sprint.

See Vattenfall last year

Read my posts carefuly.

 

[kingjr]

Read my posts carefuly.

I did. Now what?

 

[VeloHuman]

Slagter will bring Garmin the Goods.

He'll certainly have company trying to drop the sprinters. Gilbert and Greg van Avermaet, all of Astana, Cancellara--the pace up the final climbs, small though they may be, is going to be pretty darn high.

 

[Tournesol]

So,Degenkolb isn't that good according to some yet the real view of a rider I like to hear about is from the experts,i.e. the top riders in the peloton themselves,Cavendish has described Degenkolb as "pure class" (source:Cavendish's twitter account).

He may not win MSR but he can win GT stages against the best and not just in the Vuelta,he's won at the Giro,placed high in classics before,4th in the Worlds,quality rider who should not be dismissed readily.He has a classic in him at some point for sure.

He's also a decent guy and a good teammate which are other reasons for liking him.

 

[VeloHuman]

So,Degenkolb isn't that good according to some yet the real view of a rider I like to hear about is from the experts,i.e. the top riders in the peloton themselves,Cavendish has described Degenkolb as "pure class" (source:Cavendish's twitter account).

He may not win MSR but he can win GT stages against the best and not just in the Vuelta,he's won at the Giro,placed high in classics before,4th in the Worlds,quality rider who should not be dismissed readily.He has a classic in him at some point for sure.

He's also a decent guy and a good teammate which are other reasons for liking him.

Vattenfall was a big one-day win against some big talent. MSR is a different beast, but Degenkolb does have a major one-day victory on his resume and even Greipel doesn't really have that.

 

[Tournesol]

Vattenfall was a big one-day win against some big talent. MSR is a different beast, but Degenkolb does have a major one-day victory on his resume and even Greipel doesn't really have that.

Agreed.Vattenfall and Paris-Tours are good one day wins and he's capable of more.Could even see him winning an uphill sprint at Le Tour if the opportunity presents.

 

[jaylew]

Degenkolb is not a Top3 favourite on of those

I'm kinda with you on this. I think he's a solid pick for a top 10 but I don't give he or Démare much chance for the actual win.

 

[ILovecycling]

I did. Now what?

I wrote there that I SAW the freaking vatenfall classics.
It was a race where Cavendish even didnt take a part and the biggest rival was exhausted Greipel,then Viviani and Ventoso who are 2nd tiers and Degenkolb was pretty fresh coz he spin off his legs at Tour as he rode 1! good stage and nothing more...

 

[ILovecycling]

I'm kinda with you on this. I think he's a solid pick for a top 10 but I don't give he or Démare much chance for the actual win.

+1
I would say for top5 he is really reasonable favourite,with luck 3rd place,but ftw i see about 10 other riders who has bigger chance.

 

[karlboss]

One for the sprinters and Cavendish and Greipel are racing, I can't see past them. Sagan will screw himself over again. He'll go with Gilbert and Cancellara (and someone else) over the Poggio, and then he'll either work too much to stay away and be outsprinted by whatever surprise does no work in the lead 5 or not work enough and lose too many positions as the leaders are swept away in the sprinters push for the line.

 

[VeloHuman]

One for the sprinters and Cavendish and Greipel are racing, I can't see past them. Sagan will screw himself over again. He'll go with Gilbert and Cancellara (and someone else) over the Poggio, and then he'll either work too much to stay away and be outsprinted by whatever surprise does no work in the lead 5 or not work enough and lose too many positions as the leaders are swept away in the sprinters push for the line.

I don't think Sagan will exhaust himself in a futile late attack. He knows that on a good day he can beat the top sprinters (he doesn't do it on the reg, but he has in the past), and after 300km and some late hills, he's bound to be fresher. He'll put the pressure on when he has to, but I don't think he'll throw away a chance at a sprint victory on an ill-fated kamikaze move up a climb that probably isn't going to force that much of a selection. He gets savvier every race.

 

[hfer07]

any weather issues?