2014 Milan-San Remo, Mar 23rd (294 Km)

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Who will win?

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MartinGT said:
I would love to see Cav take it again. However with the loss of Boonen I think Greipel will take it.

Looking forward to it.

Horrible that Tom won't be there for these reasons.

But, personally I think this improves Cav's chances. He missed out last year due to the usual OPQS 3 leaders policy with Chav up the road in a break he couldn't win from, whilst half the team quit in the bus. Having a more straight forward situation will certainly help, unless Kwia gets it in to his head that this is the time he can beat Sagan in a flat sprint.
 
Kwibus said:
Easiest monument to finish, hardest to win. That's what the riders say. That doesn't sound hard does it? Doesn't change the fact that it's a hard race, but not the hardest.

It wrongly has that reputation [of being a race for sprinters]. I won it 7 times and I was not a sprinter, not more than Zabel or Cancellara. […] In the Primavera, the distance worked like a steamroller and my main rivals didn’t have the resistance that I acquired during the Six-Days [the true ones, not the modern ones].I could be beaten in a sprint after 200km but not after 280km because I managed to maintain the same standard when the others declined, this is why I could make the difference in the Poggio. In Paris-Nice[1966] I was beaten by Durante in a 150k stage. Hence I wasn’t favourite but I managed to get back with Poulidor in the Poggio. Durante was there too. And there I beat him. The distance worked but also the Via Roma which suited me and it’s eyewash slope.

I didn’t like the Tour of Flanders too much. It’s a nice classic, made for the specialists with it’s climbs ridden sprinting, its turns which spared recovery times. The “Ronde” was too slow, and not hard enough. I needed 20 to 30km more to make the difference. […] I preferred fast races with high average speed which killed the riders, just like the Primavera, where you have to ride 50kmh during 30km in the wind, without braking and without lifting your head. In the end it’s exhausting.



Eddy Merckx to Philippe Brunel in Vélo Magazine #472, March 2010

In the Tour of Flanders, the climbs are so short that the sprinters can often come back. Besides, in my time there were fewer climbs. In Paris-Roubaix, the cobbles really make it hard but it’s also turning, re-starting from standstill or sort of. I liked races with longer climbs better or races such as Milan Sanremo, with kilometers long straight lines and a high speed. Then I was still fresh enough for a powerful attack in the final kilometers

Eddy Merckx - De Flandriens (the book corresponding to the TV series) - Canvas / Borgeroff & Lambrechts 2010

So for Merckx the easiest "monument" is the Tour of Flanders ! :)

He (Gallopin) started to make me think I could win Milan Sanremo. I first found the idea ludicrous. […] But Gallopin who started to know my skills and my weaknesses by heart […] knew as well as I did that I needed a lot of kilometers in order to make my physique work. The 294 of Milan Sanremo, then, demanded unfailing stamina to which you had to add undeniable punching skills in the last 10km with the passing of the Poggio. Gallopin repeated it to me: “it’s for you, believe me.”

My translation of Laurent Fignon "Nous étions jeunes et innocents." Probably better worded in the English versionof the book but still the idea is there. ;)
 
trevim said:
I know he's not riding; I was just wondering how he could compete even in the classic route without Manie/Pompeiana.

In the WC race he lost to Boonen, Sammy Sanchez who I believe led Valverde out believed that Valverde would have won had he been in the right gear. Valverde has shown that he can handle the distances of the monuments, so having something in the tank to put up a good sprint isn't a problem. Under the right circumstances I'm certain he could do well. Look at Simon Gerrans. The difference being Valverde's tactical sense and attention span. I think he has problems keeping his head in the game especially on technical courses (Amstel Gold). That may account for his always having some malady that almost always compromises his chances in the Tour.
 
Echoes said:
Snipped most of it (nice quotes, but different times)......

My translation of Laurent Fignon "Nous étions jeunes et innocents." Probably better worded in the English versionof the book but still the idea is there. ;)

A romantic? Don't blame you Echoes. Here is a quote from Cavendish '14:

It's a long race, the easiest to finish, but the hardest to win. I am just really happy to have the opportunity to try.

From CN article today: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/petacchi-renshaw-alongside-cavendish-in-milan-san-remo

Again the support rider element is the key difference between then and now. Everybody can ride 300km now. No problem. Most can't win, but they can help the leader all the way to the last hill.

But the Manie will help in the middle of the race. Harder for a sprinter and harder for the helpers.

That will be my last post in this discussion. Enjoy the race.
 
Jun 25, 2013
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Volderke said:
I am not a Valverde fan, but I really wonder why he does not ride San Remo.

In my opinion, he would have a very good chance winning it. Just look at who won it over the last couple of years, and you could easily replace Freire, Gerrans, Ciolek,… with Valverde in the same position. He would be one of the few able to follow (or lead) the first group like in the past years with Nibali, Cancellara,… and has a very good sprint. I just don't get it why he does not ride...

The last few years have come down to smaller groups reaching the finish because harder climbs were thrown in. Those climbs aren't there anymore. Valverde has a good sprint but he's not an elite sprinter. He isn't going to ride 300km just to watch Greipel and Degenkolb fly by him at the end.
 
Can't remember what thread it was on here that I saw a slimmed downed Greipel picture posted.

Anyway, with that one little shred of evidence to cling to I'm going to vote for Greipel as the winner.

In terms of who I'd like to win it - my vote would go to Sagan or Cav.
 
trevim said:
Just saw Goss didn't make the team for sunday. Is he the sprinter version of Andy Schleck or is there another reason for him to fail so bad after his win in San Remo?

Apparently he's not climbing well enough :(

But oh well, OGE have good options in Matthews and Gerrans still.

It would be funny if Gerrans could repeat http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=25567
against any of the big sprinters:D:eek:
 
trevim said:
Just saw Goss didn't make the team for sunday. Is he the sprinter version of Andy Schleck or is there another reason for him to fail so bad after his win in San Remo?

Goss is good, there is just a good handful of sprinters who are faster than him right now. You've got Cav, Griepel, and Kittel who right now are the fastest "pure" sprinters, so it's hard for him to compete in the flat drag races. Then you've got Sagan, Degenkolb, a couple others who do very well on the hillier sprints. Cav has talked in the past how you might be fast, but you need that extra kick to be able to turn your speed into a win. My personal opinion is that 1. the competition is just simply real tough right now, and 2. he doesn't have the extra edge you need for the sprints.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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Orbit501 said:
Can't remember what thread it was on here that I saw a slimmed downed Greipel picture posted.

Anyway, with that one little shred of evidence to cling to I'm going to vote for Greipel as the winner.

In terms of who I'd like to win it - my vote would go to Sagan or Cav.

greipel as always can't handle the distance. and it seems he even lost sprinting power by losing weight. what an idiot move on his part
 
Oct 29, 2011
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From twitter @irishpeloton
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If Tchmil is considered a lone rider, so should Pozzato. So Maniè did not change a lot. A bit harder but that's it.

By the way I surprise myself agreeing with Ryo. There should be something wrong with me I guess. :p
 
Useless prediction from me:

***** Degenkolb
**** Sagan, Matthews
*** Cancellara, Ciolek, Greipel
** Gilbert, Vichot, Slagter, Modolo
* Ulissi, Demare, Stybar, Cavendish, Kwiatkovski
 
May 18, 2010
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Lol... just when the sprinters signed on and valverde et al signed off...
I guess the predictions may be revised depending on the profile of the "new" last 30km...