2014 Vuelta al País Vasco, Stage 6: Markina-Xemein → Markina-Xemein, 25.9 km (ITT)

[Geraint Too Fast]

2014 Vuelta al País Vasco, Stage 6: Markina-Xemein → Markina-Xemein, 25.9 km (ITT)

As usual Pais Vasco finishes with a hilly ITT, although it's not quite as difficult as recent years.

GC
1 CONTADOR, Alberto TCS 20h 30′ 31″
2 VALVERDE, Alejandro MOV + 00′ 12″
3 CUNEGO, Damiano LAM + 00′ 36″
4 EVANS, Cadel BMC + 00′ 36″
5 PERAUD, Jean-Christophe ALM + 00′ 36″
6 TROFIMOV, Yury KAT + 00′ 36″
7 KWIATKOWSKI, Michal OPQ + 00′ 41″
8 LANDA, Mikel AST + 00′ 54″
9 POELS, Wouter OPQ + 00′ 55″
10 SANCHEZ, Samuel BMC + 00′ 56″
11 SLAGTER, Tom Jelte GRS + 00′ 56″
12 PINOT, Thibaut FDJ + 00′ 56″
13 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay BMC + 00′ 58″
14 SPILAK, Simon KAT + 00′ 58″

Start Times

 

[Tournesol]

Tomorrow we have a thriller.

 

[Netserk]

Martin stage win
Contador overall win

 

[BigMac]

Péraud stage win.
Valverde overall win.

 

[Red Rick]

Contador for the stage
Overall win should be..... you know

 

[roundabout]

TT too long

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Panzerwagen seems to be getting stronger by the day. It the weather is good and this isn't too technical, I think he will win.

I think Van Garderen will be very close in the GC.

Looking forward to it. Should be great fun.

 

[yespatterns]

The reasonably good opportunity to lose time in this should make things pretty interesting.... now i have to get up super early two days in a row XD

 

[BigMac]

The reasonably good opportunity to lose time in this should make things pretty interesting.... now i have to get up super early two days in a row XD

Don't. This race is not worthy.

 

[yespatterns]

Im in it for the curiosity LOL

 

[jsem94]

I want Valverde to put up a good fight, but I don't expect it. Contador to cleanly take the stage and the overall.

 

[SafeBet]

Cunego might find a way to drop out of the top10.
Plenty of riders have a shot at the podium.

 

[the sceptic]

Cunego might find a way to drop out of the top10.
Plenty of riders have a shot at the podium.

He might.. but at least he has shown some form this week.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I want Valverde to put up a good fight, but I don't expect it. Contador to cleanly take the stage and the overall.

In my dreams

Fingers crossed.

Can't lose to Piti

 

[Taxus4a]

IMO it will depends on the wind. With headwind, I thin alberto will lose the overall, in other case, no.

Evans and Peraud could do a good time trial, but half a minute is really a big time to put into the two best riders by far of the race.

 

[Jspear]

Tejay for the stage, Contador with 2nd and winning the overall.

IMO it will depends on the wind. With headwind, I thin alberto will lose the overall, in other case, no.

Evans and Peraud could do a good time trial, but half a minute is really a big time to put into the two best riders by far of the race.

Does anyone know what the wind will be like tomorrow? Wind definitely is a huge factor in racing.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Is it that much easier than the last few?

Yes, last year's had the Alto Olaberria which was way steeper than those, but it's also much shorter. Oñati was only 19km in length, and the climbs were much shorter, but the technical nature of the TT with lots of tight corners on narrow roads were what made it tougher. Zalla in 2011 only had the one climb, which was Beci, so easier than tomorrow. 2010 in Orio was again only really the one genuine climb, and it was the easiest possible approach to Aia (but then none of those approaches are that straightforward, hey?).

I think it belongs in the annals of País Vasco CRI history.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Does anyone know what the wind will be like tomorrow? Wind definitely is a huge factor in racing.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/SPBI0220?pagenum=2&nextbeginIndex=6

 

[manafana]

martin is fancied for this I have some minor doubts about him however he hs looked strong and he won it last year

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Cunego has done very good ITT's on hilly terrain and especially in PV before. I wouldn't say he'd drop out top 10

 

[Big Doopie]

Um. Contador should lose minimum 2 mins to a natural TTer like tjvg. I said should. In fact Contador should be no place near on final gc. However I hope he for his sake he has prepped his tt-ing as he did in 2009. We will soon know I guess if Froome is going to be an also ran at TDF. It depends on contador's strangely varying tt abilities. If he loses 2-3 mins as he should the TDF is over for him like the dauphine and TDF last year where he rode the itts very "mortal" like.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Um. Contador should lose minimum 2 mins to a natural TTer like tjvg. I said should. In fact Contador should be no place near on final gc. However I hope he for his sake he has prepped his tt-ing as he did in 2009. We will soon know I guess if Froome is going to be an also ran at TDF. It depends on contador's strangely varying tt abilities. If he loses 2-3 mins as he should the TDF is over for him like the dauphine and TDF last year where he rode the itts very "mortal" like.

Contador should lose a minimum of 2 minutes to Tejay van Garderen over 25km with two very genuine climbs making up 10k of that, and also with the descents from those climbs?

Really? Where is Tejay the TT machine going to make up these minutes?

 

[Big Doopie]

Really? Where is Tejay the TT machine going to make up these minutes?

Where as a natural gc type rider he would. In the itt.

Contador is a wispy little climber that honestly and HISTORICALLY should never contend on gc unless he finds magic suddenly in tt-ing way beyond natural body type and capabilities.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Where as a natural gc type rider he would. In the itt.

Contador is a wispy little climber that honestly and HISTORICALLY should never contend on gc unless he finds magic suddenly in tt-ing way beyond natural body type and capabilities.

But the TT having 40% of its duration spent on climbing, that means that the wispy little climber should be able to limit his losses. Wispy climber or not, he does not lose over 2 minutes to Tejay in the 5km of flat that this TT includes. The rest of the time is either climbing (where Contador holds the advantage) or descending (where Contador is pretty good, and I don't know enough about van Garderen to know whether he'd gain any time here).

I mean, saying a "natural GC type rider would gain in the ITT" is just too vague, because the TT here in Euskadi is not the same as in, say, Sarthe, or Limousin. 25km here is not a flat time triallist's paradise that will see the powerful riders demolish the wispy little climbers, it's a course that will actually balance pretty well between the TT specialists and the wispy climbers. That's what happens in País Vasco. You wouldn't say that Contador should lose 2 minutes+ to Tejay if the TT was, say, to Kronplatz. But it's still an ITT.

Last year's País Vasco TT:
1 Martin
2 Quintana
3 Intxausti
4 Porte

Porte ought to beat the two Movistar guys in a normal TT, right?

2012:
1 Samu Sánchez
2 Mollema
3 Martin
4 Pinotti
5 Cunego
6 Rodríguez

Hey look, that's Purito in the top 10 of a TT. If HE is only losing 16" to Tony Martin, that ain't a normal ITT.

If it were a pan-flat 25km, maybe you'd have a point (I still think your 2 minutes is excessive, given back in the 2008 Vuelta Igor Antón, who has never shown the TT capabilities of a Contador even as a junior, lost 2'35 over an absolutely pan-flat 42km in Ciudad Real, which I see as a fairly reasonably representative time for a pure climber in a totally flat TT. Extrapolate from that what he would have lost over 25km, and you get 1'32). But it's not, so saying Contador losing less than 2 minutes to Tejay here (and what made Tejay the standard to judge against, btw?) would be the mark of ridiculousness is quite simply an unreasonable stance to take given the characteristics of the stage.

 

[Taxus4a]

Valverde was impressive in the ITT in Andalucía, with Porte and other goods TT trialist... Contador was not very good in Tiirreno or Algarve... we will see tomorrow, but just 12 seconds it is not a big difference, although is a good ITT for Contador, and last year he was not very good, but OK in a similar ITT.