2014 Vuelta al País Vasco, Stage 6: Markina-Xemein → Markina-Xemein, 25.9 km (ITT)

[Jspear]

Valverde was impressive in the ITT in Andalucía, with Porte and other goods TT trialist... Contador was not very good in Tiirreno or Algarve... we will see tomorrow, but just 12 seconds it is not a big difference, although is a good ITT for Contador, and last year he was not very good, but OK in a similar ITT.

I'd say he was more than OK in last years hilly TdF tt. He was second, just 7 seconds behind Froome.

 

[Ferminal]

Where as a natural gc type rider he would. In the itt.

Contador is a wispy little climber that honestly and HISTORICALLY should never contend on gc unless he finds magic suddenly in tt-ing way beyond natural body type and capabilities.

Yeh, historically terrible on a 40kmh TT course...

 

[CrazyCanuck]

TJ 2mins on Contador in a hilly TT???
hmm let's look at last year TDF stage 17 TT results

STAGE 17 RESULTS
1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:51:33
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:00:09
3 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha 0:00:10
4 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:00:23
5 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:30
6 Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team 0:01:11
7 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:01:33
8 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:01:34
9 Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp 0:01:41
10 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:01:51

 

[Afrank]

I think it's fair to say Tejay's form at the moment is looking much better then it was at the Tour last year.

 

[CrazyCanuck]

True, his form is better than last year but I can't imagine TJ putting 2 mins on Contador on a terrain like this or even a flat TT. Oh well, we'll see how Contador does tomorrow. I hope it's better than what he did at Algarve or else the big battle with Froome in July is all but mute.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Valverde was impressive in the ITT in Andalucía, with Porte and other goods TT trialist... Contador was not very good in Tiirreno or Algarve... we will see tomorrow, but just 12 seconds it is not a big difference, although is a good ITT for Contador, and last year he was not very good, but OK in a similar ITT.

He did a good ITT in Algarve.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Where as a natural gc type rider he would. In the itt.

Contador is a wispy little climber that honestly and HISTORICALLY should never contend on gc unless he finds magic suddenly in tt-ing way beyond natural body type and capabilities.

Sheesh.

Take it to the Clinic.

 

[SafeBet]

Cunego has done very good ITT's on hilly terrain and especially in PV before. I wouldn't say he'd drop out top 10

That's true but I've long lost my faith in him.

 

[movingtarget]

Cunego might find a way to drop out of the top10.
Plenty of riders have a shot at the podium.

I think Cunego will certainly drop out of top 10 on latest TT form. He has done well up till now but it's the Ardenne classics that will be aiming for and apart from his Giro win many years ago he has always been a better rider for the hilly classics. His second in the Tour of Switzerland a few years ago was also good but he lost on the final TT where he was mediocre against a good TT rider in Leipheimer.

 

[wirral]

Have they announced the riders' individual start times yet?

 

[iodine2]

Dario Cataldo will be in top 5.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Have they announced the riders' individual start times yet?

Yep, not sure where you can find them though. Contador takes off 16.25 CET, 2 mins between the top GC riders.

 

[naffets]

no ones really mentioned kwiakowski? he beat a good field in the Algarve itt how do you think he will fair today??

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Have they announced the riders' individual start times yet?

Start times: http://biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=70822

 

[Jack_89]

About Kwiat: I do not see him in good shape.
He was drop in Arrare and in difficult yesterday to keep the wheels of 10-15 riders.
So i do not see giving 40s to Contador on this route.

 

[naffets]

About Kwiat: I do not see him in good shape.
He was drop in Arrare and in difficult yesterday to keep the wheels of 10-15 riders.
So i do not see giving 40s to Contador on this route.

I agree in Algarve he never looked in trouble but last couple of days hes just been off the pace

 

[VeloHuman]

no ones really mentioned kwiakowski? he beat a good field in the Algarve itt how do you think he will fair today??

I think plenty of people have mentioned Kwiato... he has the second best odds of anyone for this stage with most bookmakers.

 

[Butterhead]

Where as a natural gc type rider he would. In the itt.

Contador is a wispy little climber that honestly and HISTORICALLY should never contend on gc unless he finds magic suddenly in tt-ing way beyond natural body type and capabilities.

I guess you never saw AC do a hilly TT. I think its the most stupid thing I ever heard.

 

[Butterhead]

I think plenty of people have mentioned Kwiato... he has the second best odds of anyone for this stage with most bookmakers.

I would agree with that. According to DS Brian Holm have Poels worked a lot on his TT this winter, with the form he´s showing it will be interesting to see how far he can go. I expect Valverde to beat AC with the seconds he needs. It looks like a wet day, does anyone know how tricky the descents are?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I agree in Algarve he never looked in trouble but last couple of days hes just been off the pace

He looked the 3rd strongest coming into the race, but seemed to have dropped a bit imo. Maybe hes too focus on winning stages/sprints rather than conserving as much energy as possible for the GC. It will be interesting to see how he performs today.

 

[Miburo]

Why are some people talking like this is a normal ITT?

You can compare with the hilly ITT in the tour where Contador finished 2nd while he got destroyed in the flat ITT.

Granted, that's a 3 week stage race but still.

Kwiat is a monster but i don't think he'll do better than Contador. Contador used to be a god in these ITT's.

 

[jens_attacks]

valverde will smoke it. alberto also looks fab but i don't think he can handle the green bullet. papy peraud to finish 3rd

 

[Guybrush]

From the official twitter race channel: "As far as we know, Frank Schleck (TFR) and Jelle Vanendert (LTB) will not start today the ITT"

 

[Miburo]

From the official twitter race channel: "As far as we know, Frank Schleck (TFR) and Jelle Vanendert (LTB) will not start today the ITT"

I pety lotto for even spending one penny on Vanendert. What a waste of talent.

 

[Carols]

But the TT having 40% of its duration spent on climbing, that means that the wispy little climber should be able to limit his losses. Wispy climber or not, he does not lose over 2 minutes to Tejay in the 5km of flat that this TT includes. The rest of the time is either climbing (where Contador holds the advantage) or descending (where Contador is pretty good, and I don't know enough about van Garderen to know whether he'd gain any time here).

I mean, saying a "natural GC type rider would gain in the ITT" is just too vague, because the TT here in Euskadi is not the same as in, say, Sarthe, or Limousin. 25km here is not a flat time triallist's paradise that will see the powerful riders demolish the wispy little climbers, it's a course that will actually balance pretty well between the TT specialists and the wispy climbers. That's what happens in País Vasco. You wouldn't say that Contador should lose 2 minutes+ to Tejay if the TT was, say, to Kronplatz. But it's still an ITT.

Last year's País Vasco TT:
1 Martin
2 Quintana
3 Intxausti
4 Porte

Porte ought to beat the two Movistar guys in a normal TT, right?

2012:
1 Samu Sánchez
2 Mollema
3 Martin
4 Pinotti
5 Cunego
6 Rodríguez

Hey look, that's Purito in the top 10 of a TT. If HE is only losing 16" to Tony Martin, that ain't a normal ITT.

If it were a pan-flat 25km, maybe you'd have a point (I still think your 2 minutes is excessive, given back in the 2008 Vuelta Igor Antón, who has never shown the TT capabilities of a Contador even as a junior, lost 2'35 over an absolutely pan-flat 42km in Ciudad Real, which I see as a fairly reasonably representative time for a pure climber in a totally flat TT. Extrapolate from that what he would have lost over 25km, and you get 1'32). But it's not, so saying Contador losing less than 2 minutes to Tejay here (and what made Tejay the standard to judge against, btw?) would be the mark of ridiculousness is quite simply an unreasonable stance to take given the characteristics of the stage.

+100
Well said!