2015 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[Eshnar]

The time has come!!! Only 10 days to the start of the best GT of the year
As it's already tradition, here you have my awesome stage-by-stage analysis. If you spot any typos and/or inconsistencies, please let me know.

Let's start with the overview.
The 2015 Giro route could not look more different than the 2014 one. Nice hilly stages, no hard mountain top finishes, almost no transfers and a monster flat ITT. The only features that keep being there are the relatively high number of MTFs (7, although all are generally easy, as mentioned) and the signature backloading of the Giro, with 4 mountain stages in the last week. The end results is, in my opinion (but not only mine), the best GT route in the last 10 years, exactly since the 2005 Giro.
Some random data:
3,489 km of total length, 77 of which in time trial.
7 flat stages, 5 medium mountain stages, 1 mountain descent finish, 6 mountain top finishes, 1 TTT, 1 ITT.
43,000 m of total vertical gain (according to the organisers)
39 GPMs: 1 Cima Coppi (Colle delle Finestre, 2178m), 9 Cat.1, 8 Cat.2, 13 Cat.3, 8 Cat.4
Speaking of GPMs, the categorization of some of them is laughable. I will point it out during the stage analysis. The organisers also left out a lot of climbs, probably trying to balance the mountain points competition or to hide from the official data the ridiculously high number of little climbs that will feature in this edition. Either way, I would say that when you force yourself to put only 3 GPMs in a stage that features no less than 9 climbs (as it happened in stage 11), maybe it's time to rethink the whole KOM concept.
Besides these minor problems, everything's ready for a great race

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 1: S.Lorenzo al Mare – Sanremo 17.6 kms TTT

Start time: 15:10, May 9th

Analysis:
The Giro kicks in with the nowadays traditional TTT. The particularity of this time trial is that the course is almost entirely on a "pista ciclabile" (= a bike track) instead of on a normal road. The track is all on the coast, which means very nice scenery and some wind exposure. The track is not very wide and has a few swift turns and tunnels, so this stage might actually provide a serious challenge for the teams.

Expectations:
Tiny gaps but a couple of teams to mess up and lose big time.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 2: Albenga – Genova 177 kms

Start time: 12:55, May 10th

Analysis:
First road stage, probably the most underwhelming (at least for me) design of the year. With all the awesome options of a city circuit in Genova (my hometown, for those of you that don't know it yet), RCS chose the flattest one they could possibly conceive. There is one bump, but it doesn't go over 4% and 1 km of length, and the finish is slightly uphill. As for the rest of the stage, not much more to say. There's an uncategorized climb at the start (no clue why) and then the first official GPM of the Giro, the cat.4 climb to Pratozanino (4.2 km at 4.9%). Besides those, all the stage is on the coast, which could mean possible windy conditions, but in reality the most frequent wind in Liguria is quite weak from south. If the wind is strong, then it will most likely come from south-west or north, and only the latter case would provide some fun. Anyway, the two laps in Genova will decrease the risk of echelons. Let's say they did their best to ensure a mass sprint. The finish shouldn't be too dangerous, roads are wide and relatively straight.

Expectations:
As I said, mass sprint.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 3: Rapallo – Sestri Levante 136 kms

Start time: 13:35, May 11th

Analysis:
First medium mountain stage, very short but very interesting as well. The peloton heads for the first time deep into the narrow and twisty Ligurian roads, with a very hilly first part and a flat finale. We start in Rapallo, on the coast, and climb la Ruta, uncategorized, and then head north through the GPM 3 Colle Caprile (11.8 kms at 3.8%). What follows is a sequence of ups and downs (more ups than downs) that end with the final climb of the day, the GPM 2 Barbagelata. This climb features pretty serious ramps, with 5.7 kms at 8.1%. From there on, only downhill. And it's not an easy one at all. In general, the Ligurian descents are all pretty narrow and technical, without too many hairpins but a lot of fast bends. Being fast and narrow, they're also dangerous, and since we started in Rapallo I'm sure you all remember how much.
After approximately 20 km of descent, the road flattens and goes on for 24 km to the finish in Sestri Levante, on easy and straight roads.

Expectations:
In short, a breakaway. Hopefully big. At the start the GC will be still undefined so any breakaway would go for both the stage and the pink... I expect a big battle to get into it and there's a good chance many teams will send people forward, so that they can avoid pulling the peloton later. It'll be very interesting to see who will take responsibility in the bunch. I do not think sprinters should bother, because I really don't see them making it to the end.
Of course, there's also the possibility the peloton agrees to a ridiculous breakaway of 2-3 men and then reels them in for a reduced sprint. But I prefer the former option.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 4: Chiavari – La Spezia 150 kms

Start time: 13:10, May 12th

Analysis:
Another hilly stage, this time it's a serious one. The peloton will almost immediatly start climbing the first climb of the day, the GPM3 Colle di Velva (14.2 kms at 3.5%). After the top, a long descending valley will bring the riders to the foot of the famous Passo del Bracco (8.8 kms at 4.8%) which is not categorized as they don't reach the proper pass, but descend before the top. Here starts the most beautiful Cinque Terre area, and the route is almost identical to the 2009 monster ITT. After reaching the village of Levanto, the road goes up again to the GPM3 Passo del Termine (8.8 kms at 6.1%). Once it's done, some false flats and a descent will lead the bunch through a long tunnel that marks the end of the Cinque Terre area. The following descent goes all the way to the town of La Spezia, but the stage doesn't end here: after a first pass through the finishing line, the peloton will simply make a 180° turn and go back into the hills again. The last climb of the day, the GPM3 to the village of Biassa (3.4 at 8.8%, the graphic is wrong ofc), is a very interesting road with increasingly steep gradients. Just as they leave the village, the road connects to the exit of the aforementioned tunnel, and the riders will descend on the very same road they used to get to La Spezia in the first place. After the end of the descent there are only 3 kms of flat, straight roads.

Expectations:
I expect a big spectacle here. The climb to Biassa is definitely enough to force a selection even amongst the gc guys, if anybody wants, and it's in a perfect position, just 10 kms before the finish. Furthermore, all the one-day specialists whose goal is to win a stage and possibly wear pink for a day will have to make the team work and then go for it. All the riders with gc ambitions will need to be on their toes today.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 5: La Spezia – Abetone 152 kms MTF

Start time: 13:05, May 13th

Analysis:
First MTF of the race, already on stage 5, which is a vast improvement with respect to the previous editions. The peloton leaves Liguria for good and enters Tuscany through the inland, soon climbing the first GPM of the day, the cat.3 Foce Carpinelli (10.1 km, 5%). After that, a long false flat, first descending and then ascending, along the Garfagnana valley. On the way, they'll pass aside arguably one of the hardest climbs ever raced in the Giro, but this is not the day it will be raced again. Instead, the race will head all the way to the GPM2 of Abetone, the Montevergine of this edition. Luckily, Abetone (southern side) is a bit harder than the classic 30-men-sprint-mountain of the south: 17.3 km at 5.4%, but its central part measures 8 km at 7.2%, which is not bad at all. The hard part, however, ends at around 5 km to the top, while the final part only averages 4.7%.

WINNERS IN ABETONE
1954 Gianneschi
1959 Gaul
2000 Casagrande

Expectations:
Sprint between a fairly selected gc group. Let's say 10-15 men. Only the time bonuses will be on stack.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 6: Montecatini Terme – Castiglione della Pescaia 183 kms

Start time: 12:55, May 14th

Analysis:
After three consecutive hilly stages, it really is time for something more relaxing for the peloton. A stage entirely in Tuscany, but without much of the difficulties typical of this region. The only tricky part of the stage is in the middle, where the riders will face 60 km of very irregular terrain, with lots of little climbs, including the only categorized climb of the day, the GPM4 Pomarance (6.3 kms at 4.4%). Unfortunately for the spectacle the final 45 km of the stage are totally flat, so it's quite unlikely that anything will happen in the middle section.

Expectations:
A bunch sprint. Maybe a team will try to force some selection trying to drop a few sprinters in the middle section, but it will be hard.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 7: Grosseto – Fiuggi 264 kms

Start time: 10:25, May 15th

Analysis:
Longest stage of the race, the first of a series of three very demanding stages. Starting in Grosseto, the riders will face a long journey without too many objective difficulties, but with a complicated finale that comes after 250 kms on the saddle. Between the lots of false flats and little ramps of the stage, only one has been categorized, the GPM4 climb to Monterotondo (2.5 km at 5.1%). However, they could have also categorized some more hills, just as they could have done pretty much in every stage. As I said, the finale is all that matters here. At roughly 20 kms to go, The peloton starts climbing an uncategorized bump of approximately 5 kms at 5%. After some false flat at the top and a straightforward descent, there's another bump, this time 5 kms at 4.4%, after which there are only 5 kms to go. The last km goes up again, with increasing gradients topping at 5% right at the end.

Expectations:
This is a Milano-Sanremo-like course, and as such I expect the strong sprinters to take charge and bring everybody to a sprint, possibly reduced. However, being a long day, everybody may be tired enough for the attackers to have concrete chances to win.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 8: Fiuggi – Campitello Matese 186 kms MTF

Start time: 12:05, May 16th

Analysis:
Second MTF of the Giro, on the hardest final climb of the whole race (!). We start in Fiuggi, and after a first descending section the peloton hits the first ascent of the day, the uncategorized climb to Veroli. After the valley, the riders will climb the GPM2 Forca d'Acero (26 kms at 5%), very long but with low gradients. Once the climb is done, a short descent will lead the bunch to a series of descending false flats and little hills, none of them is really important, but they'll all add to the overall fatigue. As soon as they reach the bottom of this section, it's time for the final climb: the GPM1 Campitello Matese (13 km at 6.9%), that despite being not nearly as tough as your typical Giro queen MTF, is still a good climb, where it is possible to make the difference. It's worth noting that the actual climb ends at 700m to the finish, which is on gentle descent. The Giro has finished here 5 times in its history, and the list of past winners is quite impressive.

WINNERS IN CAMPITELLO MATESE
1982 Hinault
1983 Fernandez
1988 Chioccioli
1994 Berzin
2002 Simoni

Expectations:
The first showdown between the main contenders. Probably serious attacks starting from 4 km to the top. I expect a solo winner from the GC contenders.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 9: Benevento – S.Giorgio del Sannio 224 kms

Start time: 11:15, May 17th

Analysis:
Just before the rest day, a very tough and quite long hilly stage. Benevento and S.Giorgio del Sannio are very close to each other, so the peloton will take a long tour of the area. It's tricky from the get go, with lots of ups and down in the first 20 kms, which will probably favour a big battle for the breakaway. After that, a flat section and an uncategorized climb of roughly 10 kms at 4%, before the first obstacle of the day, the GPM2 Monte Terminio (20 kms at 4.2%). After its descent, another climb, the way more serious Colle Molella (GPM1, 9.5 kms at 6.3%), featuring 3 kms at 9.4 %. This climb is also known as Lago Laceno, which is the village that hosted already a few stage finishes (the last one in 2012). After the descent, the bunch will face two false flats, that rarely go over 5%, and then start climbing the key point of the stage: the GPM2 Passo Serra (3.6 kms at 8%). This is a very irregular climb, that features a central part of 2 kms at 9.4%. The pass tops at 12 kms to go. The descent ends around 5 kms to go, and after 2 kms uphill again at 5%, the road finally flattens out for the last 3 kms.

Expectations:
Tough to call. This comes just after the first gc battle, and before a rest day. I expect the breakaway to take it, but some of the big guys or the attackers could try to keep it together and attack on Passo Serra. It should be fun.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 10: Civitanova Marche – Forlì 200 kms

Start time: 12:35, May 19th

Analysis:
Not much to say for this one. Flat along the coast, then the twisty roads of Monte Bartolo (see the Saltara ITT 2013 for reference), then dead flat until Forlì. The wind is our only hope. The finale has a slightly dangerous roundabout in the last km.

Expectations:
If no windy, boredom and a mass sprint. If windy, less boredom and less massive sprint...

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 11: Forlì – Imola 153 kms

Start time: 13:00, May 20th

Analysis:
Very tough and atypical stage. We start in Forlì and immediatly we head south into the Appennines for the last time of this year. After 15 km flat, the peloton hits a combo of 5 very tough hills, and three of them are not categorized, just for the lolz. It all starts with the GPM3 Passo del Trebbio (6.3 kms at 6.3%), then the Monte Casale (4.2 kms at 6.7%, with 2 kms at 10%... nothing to see here), then 6 kms flat, then the climb to La Valletta (2.7 kms at 9.8%... no category, yeah, seriously), then the Monte Albano (4.6 kms at 6.1%), and finally the other categorized climb, the GPM3 Valico del Prugno (5.6 kms at 6.2%). After this knackering combo, the riders will have 14 kms of deserved relax, going towards the mythical Autodromo "Enzo e Dino Ferrari", the famous circuit of Imola. Here they enter the final circuit of the stage, which is not equal to the "real" circuit, mind you. The circuit goes like this: starting from the finishing line (which is the same as the real circuit), the riders will face mythical bends like the Tamburello, Tosa, Acque Minerali and Variante Alta. Just after the latter chicane, they leave the circuit to climb the GPM4 Tre Monti (4.4 kms at 4.1%) which features a first couple of kms between 6-8%, then a km of flat, and then a final ramp of 700m at over 7%. This climb will be GPM only once, the third time they'll climb it. After the climb, a descent will bring everybody into the Autodromo again, just at the exit of Rivazza, after which it's just a long straight all the way to the finish. The peloton will enter the final circuit for the first time mid-way, at the very beginning of the climb, and will race it a first time and then other 3 full times.

Expectations:
This is very hard to predict. Surely the breakaway will have huge chances of surviving, but here the attackers have a very clear chance to win a stage without the sprinters' team nor the gc teams contesting, so they should really go for it.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 12: Imola – Vicenza (Monte Berico) 190 kms

Start time: 12:35, May 21st

Analysis:
If in the previous stage the best part was the first half, here we have the opposite. Starting from Imola, the peloton goes north for 130 completely flat kms. The last 60, however, make up for an excellent Ardennes-like stage. The first "cote" is the GPM4 Castelnuovo (5.4 kms at 5%), which will serve as a nice warm up. After a very irregular descent and 15 kms of flat terrain, the pack will tackle the GPM3 Crosara (3.7 kms at 9.1%), already climbed in the 2013 stage finishing in Vicenza, but from a different side. This one is a very tough wall, whose average gradient is lowered by the last kilometer, which is little more than false flat. Basically its first 2 kms or so have a 12.7% average, with a full km above 14%! The descent is the same of 2013, but as soon as the riders hit the bottom, they take a detour that after 5 flat kms brings them to another climb, the uncategorized climb to Perarolo (2.8 km at 7%). After another irregular descent, 7 kms of flat entering the town of Vicenza, where the riders will face an uphill sprint. The road to the sanctuary of Monte Berico (GPM4, 1.1 km at 7.1%) is not very difficult at first, with 500m at 5.6%, but the last 500m are at 10.6%.

Expectations:
As I said, the route resembles a bit the Ardennes, in particular the LBL. At this point of the race all the one-day race specialists should be still in the race, so I expect them to go for it. There's a potential to see a great stage, that will probably have no effect for the GC, besides crazy attacks on Crosara.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore – Jesolo 147 kms

Start time: 14:00, May 22nd

Analysis:
Flattest stage ever.

Expectations:
Lots of helicopter shots of the Venice lagoon and a big sprint in the end. As always, we can also pass the time praying for some wind.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 14: Treviso – Valdobbiadene 59.4 kms ITT

Start time: 12:15, May 23rd

Analysis:
The only ITT of the race is a monster. 59.4 kms of pure power, that will certainly be one of the key points of the race, if not THE key point. The first half of the route is the nightmare of any climber: 30 kms of pan flat, mostly straight, open roads, with likely weak headwind. The second half instead features two little climbs, the first of which serves as a GPM4, to S.Pietro di Feletto (4.9 kms at 3.8%). This climb starts with gradients of 5-6%, but it flattens very quickly so it's mostly a false flat. From the top, the road becomes a twisty descent, that bring each rider into another flat section of 10 kms, before the road points up again. This time the gradient increases all the way to the top, reaching over 7% in the last km (please ignore the obviously wrong 12% marks all over the place). After the top, another tricky descent will lead the riders into Valdobbiadene, where the finish is uphill.

Expectations:
As I said, a key stage. It'll be very tricky to measure the efforts in the first half in order to keep the tank reasonably full for the second. Furthermore, riders are not so used to such a long ITT. The winner will make it between 1h20' and 1h25'. The gaps will be gigantic. The best TTer between the favourites will wear pink at the end of the day.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 15: Marostica – Madonna di Campiglio 165 kms MTF

Start time: 12:30, May 24th

Analysis:
In cycling, there are places that have achieved an immortal fame between fans. Places that, just hearing their name can provoke all sort of emotions to those who love this sport. Madonna di Campiglio is definitely one of them.
But in a negative way.
Just hearing this name ruins the day of any Italian cycling fan. It's not by chance that this town has hosted only one Giro stage in history. That one... that one was definitely enough. It was the day Italian (and arguably world) cycling changed forever.
Sixteen years later, we will try to watch a stage finish in this town (actually, a little higher than the town itself, as you'll see), without thinking too much about that sad day.
We start in the town of Marostica, heading straight into the Trentino region through the first difficulty of the day, GPM2 La Fricca (11.3 at 5.1%). After its descent and some bumpy terrain, the bunch will hit a very demanding climb, the GPM1 Passo Daone (8.4 kms at 9.2%), short and steep. The descent of Daone is quite tricky, and leads to the Valle Rendena, where the riders will face 7 kms of false flats before the final climb of the day, the GPM1 Madonna di Campiglio (15.5 kms at 5.9%). The proper town is actually at 3 kms to go, where the 1999 stage finished. This year however the riders will tackle an additional ramp of 3 kms at 6.7%, with some serious slopes at the beginning.

Expectations:
This stage comes after a terrible ITT and before a rest day, so I expect it to deliver much more than the profile suggests. I don't expect anything serious to happen on the Daone, but it will surely add to the fatigue, and the last climb should be fun. A solo winner and one of the favourites bonking and losing minutes.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms MTF

Start time: 11:55, May 26th

Analysis:
Here comes the queen stage. Straight after the rest day, the riders will have to race the most important stage of the race: right at the beginning, the struggle for the breakaway will be furious, on the same slopes climbed on stage 15. The GPM2 Campo Carlo Magno (13 kms at 6.7%) is, in fact, the same climb to Madonna di Campiglio, but with a different final ramp. After a descent that starts as really easy but becomes tricky at the end, the peloton will start climbing again, this time towards the GPM2 Passo del Tonale (15.3 kms at 6.1%). The descent of the Tonale is pretty simple and is just the beginning of a long descending section all the way to Edolo, where the climb to the most famous Giro finishing town starts. The southern variant of the climb to Aprica (GPM3, 14 kms at 3.5%) features a killer first km at over 11%, and then becomes a simple false flat, always around 3-5%. After reaching the mythical town of Aprica, the bunch will descend towards Tirano, in the famous Valtellina valley, where 15 km of slightly upwards roads will bring them to another mythical town, Mazzo di Valtellina. Here starts the climb that is the undisputed symbol of the Giro in the modern era: the Passo del Mortirolo (GPM1 11.9 kms at 10.9%). The legend says that the pass was named in such an intimidating way as a tribute to the big number of victims of an early medieval battle fought in the area (Morte means death in Italian). And this is indeed a deathly pass. Its terrible central section, with more than 5 kms at over 12%, may very easily be the key point of the whole Giro, just like it has been the key point of many past Giros. The top, thanks to the Gods of cycling, is too narrow to have a stage finish. The very essence of the legend of this climb is in fact that it can almost guarantee to have meaningful attacks even if it is relatively far from the finish. Another important lucky fact about this climb is also the mere presence of Aprica: there would be no legend of the Mortirolo without the legend of the Mortirolo/Aprica combo. That is the perfect example of the hard-easy climb model that forces the riders to attack from far out. In this environment, brute strength is essential, but also tactics (teamwork, alliances...) will be crucial on the way to Aprica.
The Mortirolo has been climbed for the first time in 1990, but that year the side climbed was the eastern one, starting from Edolo and descending the Mazzo side (!), while the finishing line was in Aprica. Exactly the opposite way. In 1991 the side climbed was the correct one, and the finishing was again in Aprica. Like this year, but without the 11% variant, which was introduced the last time the Giro arrived there, in 2010. But every stage featuring the Mortirolo had a story to tell. The one nobody will forget was in 1994, were a young Pantani became Il Pirata. One of the two best stages in the modern history of cycling (the other being Sestriere 1992). If you never saw that stage, well, you don't know what cycling can be.
Out of the 11 times the Mortirolo has been climbed, only once the pink jersey could not win the overall in the end. It was exactly the last time we saw the Mortirolo (although it was the Tovo side), where Rodriguez ended in pink on the Stelvio but then lost it in the final ITT.

WINNERS AND LEADERS IN MORTIROLO STAGES
1990 [Edolo] (Aprica) W: Sierra MR: Bugno keeps it
1991 [Mazzo] (Aprica) W: Chioccioli MR: Chioccioli keeps it
1994 [Mazzo] (Aprica – S.Cristina – Aprica) W: Pantani MR: Berzin keeps it
1996 [Mazzo] (Aprica) W: Gotti MR: Tonkov takes it from Olano
1997 [Mazzo] (Edolo) W: Tonkov MR: Gotti keeps it
1999 [Mazzo] (Aprica – S.Cristina – Aprica) W: Heras MR: Gotti takes it from Savoldelli
2004 [Mazzo] (Vivione – Presolana) W: Garzelli MR: Cunego keeps it
2006 [Mazzo] (Aprica) W: Basso MR: Basso keeps it
2008 [Mazzo] (Aprica – Tirano) W: Sella MR: Contador keeps it
2010 [Mazzo] (Aprica) W: Scarponi MR: Basso takes it from Arroyo
2012 [Tovo] (Stelvio) W: De Gendt MR: Rodriguez keeps it (but will lose it)

NOTE: Before the discovery of the Mortirolo, the Giro finished in Aprica only once: in 1962, the winner was Adorni.

Expectations:
Even in these years of conservative racing, it's impossible not to expect fireworks on the Mortirolo/Aprica combo. I expect a very tricky start, with a big fight for the breakaway, then a collective relax on the first climb to Aprica, and on the Mortirolo the leaders will attack each other. I do not expect a solo winner, however, unless a rider is two or three classes above the rest of the field (which ofc may happen). On the way to Aprica small groups are way more likely. The gaps between those 2-3 riders groups will be measured in minutes, though.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 17: Tirano – Lugano 134 kms

Start time: 13:55, May 27th

Analysis:
The only stage going outside Italian territory is a short transitional stage, very favorable to breakaways. The only realy difficulty of the day is right after the start: the climb to Teglio (GPM3, 7.4 kms at 6.5%), will promote the formation of a strong breakaway. The rest of the route is mostly flat, with the exception of the uncategorized ascent to Croce di Menaggio (2.5 kms at 6.8%), and a little bump with 5-6% slopes at around 6 kms to go, just after entering Swiss soil.

Expectations:
Breakaway wins and peloton at 15 minutes. I really don't think there will be sprinters in the mood to contest this stage.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 18: Melide – Verbania 170 kms

Start time: 12:55, May 28th

Analysis:
The first of the final high mountain block of this edition starts in Switzerland, but gets back into Italy after just 15 kms. The first 120 kms of this stage are almost completely pan flat around the Lago Maggiore. The only thing worth mentioning is the little climb to Bieno (2.3 km at 6.8%), which, for reasons out of the reach of us mere mortals, holds a TV instead of a GPM. Whatever. The descent of this non-GPM brings the riders directly into Verbania, but luckily the fun is only about to start. At exactly 46 km to go, the biggest new climb of this Giro starts: the GPM1 Monte Ologno. With its 10.4 km at 9%, it is quite clearly the third hardest climb of the whole race. After the GPM, the riders will go downhill for only 2 kms, after which they'll climb again towards Piancavallo (no, not the famous one), 3 kms at around 8%. At the top, other 3 km of false flats, first slighlty descending and then ascending up to 7-8% in the final ramps. After those, the real descent starts. It is a very tricky and technical descent, which is divided in two parts by another little uphill stretch, 3 km long, with some serious ramps but mostly false flat. The descent ends at 5 km to go. These final kms are flat and mostly straight, running along the lake.

Expectations:
This stage has big potential. However, it is the only descent finish of the race and comes before two high mountain stages, so we'll be very lucky if the GC riders will take this seriously. If they do, this will be awesome, with a big steep climb followed by a very rough terrain and a technical descent. The final 5 kms should not be much of a problem, and if the peloton has blown up they would even give a bigger advantage to those who still have some energy left.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 19: Gravellona Toce – Cervinia 236 kms MTF

Start time: 10:30, May 29th

Analysis:
Longest MTF stage of the race, and second longest overall. Starting from Gravellona Toce, the peloton will go through a pretty uneventful first 150 kms, with just a few bumps, including the GPM3 Croce Serra (6.9 kms at 3.8%). After those 150 kms, however, things get serious all of a sudden: three GPM1 back to back, by far the biggest climb combo of this Giro. The road starts going up to the Saint-Barthélemy (16.5 kms at 6.7%), which is quite a demanding climb, whose average gradient is lowered by a few flat stretches. After the descent starts the Col de Saint-Panthaléon (16.5 kms at 7.2%), the hardest climb of the day and possible keypoint of the stage. Here in 1997, on the same finale, Gotti attacked and went to win stage and jersey in Cervinia. After the short descent of S.Panthaléon the final climb starts, Cervinia (19.2 kms at 5.2%). The last 2 kms of this climb are basically flat, so you'd better attack earlier...

WINNERS IN CERVINIA

1960 Kazianka
1997 Gotti
2012 Amador

Expectations:
This will be either extremely good or extremely disappointing. There's plenty of room to attack from far out (from the Saint Panthaléon), but also plenty of room to just have a nice touristic ride and attack at 4-5 km to go. Most will depend on the GC situation. The stage however is very long... even without crazy actions, many riders will have problems on the way to Cervinia.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 20: Saint-Vincent – Sestriere 199 kms MTF

Start time: 12:00, May 30th

Analysis:
Here we have the final showdown of the Giro, provided that the GC is still somewhat open after all we've been through. Just like the last stage, the first 150 kms of this stage are all flat, and serve for the sole purpose of bringing the riders to the town of Susa, where they'll turn left and tackle the final beast of the Giro, the mighty Colle delle Finestre (18.5 kms at 9.2%), the Cima Coppi of this edition with its 2178m above sea level. This wonderful climb, the first real contribution of Zomegnan to the Giro, was climbed for the first time in 2005, packed between two ascents to Sestriere. Its most known feature is the second half of the climb, that is unpaved and that in 2005 was even in a pretty bad state. The inclusion of Finestre in 2005 was the first milestone of the recovery of the sterrato in the Giro operated systematically by Zomegnan in the following years and culminated with the unforgettable stage to Montalcino in 2010.
Going back to the 2005 Savigliano – Sestriere (if you have never watched it, you will find it on Youtube), that stage wrapped up the best Giro of the XXI century with a memorable race, where Simoni went for a kamikaze attack on the first ramps of Finestre to try to win the Maglia Rosa from Savoldelli, who was leading by 2'09'' in GC. The attack by Simoni was followed by an impressive Di Luca and by the KOM leader Rujano. The peloton exploded completely and at the top of Finestre Simoni was in virtual pink. After the descent, where Savoldelli gained some time already, Simoni's luck started to fade. Di Luca dropped due to cramps on the very beginning of Sestriere, and the duo Rujano-Simoni started to lose time to the small following group, where Savoldelli found precious allies. At a few kms to go, Rujano attacked and went on to win an epic stage, with a defeated Simoni coming in 2nd place. Savoldelli kept the Maglia Rosa for 28'' over Simoni and 45'' over Rujano.
After that stage, Finestre has been climbed only once, in 2011. That was the day of Kiryenka, who won from an impressive solo breakaway (and dedicated his win to Tondo), followed by Rujano (definitely the best climber ever on Finestre) who had attacked from the gc group on Finestre. The other favourites attacked each other only at the top of Finestre and tried some movements on Sestriere, but the GC was already done and dusted by a far superior Contador.
Let's get back to the analysis... After the Cima Coppi, the riders will descend to the valley through a pretty short and technical descent, which ends at 16 to go. After 7 kms of false flat, the final obstacle of the Giro begins: one of the most famous climbs in the world of cycling, Sestriere (GPM3, 9.2 kms at 5.4%). This place has seen the finish of some of the best races ever, both in the Giro and in the Tour de France. Honorable mention goes obviously to the famous Tour 1992 stage, that any cycling fan should have watched already.

WINNERS IN SESTRIERE:
1952 (Tour) Coppi
1991 (Giro) Chozas
1992 (Tour) Chiappucci
1993 (Giro, ITT) Indurain
1994 (Giro) Richard
1996 (Tour) Riis
1999 (Tour) Armstrong
2000 (Giro, ITT) Hruska
2005 (Giro) Rujano
2011 (Giro) Kiryenka

Expectations:
Whoever is not satisfied with their GC position will need to attack. Sestriere is definitely not hard enough to create meaningful gaps, so the place where you want to attack is the Cima Coppi. Finestre is a very constant climb, so any place will do. It will be very unlikely to have gc people attack before the sterrato, in any case, especially because there's no warm up climb before Finestre, so the bunch will charge in full size on the first ramps. However, if it rains, we can expect all hell to break loose on the sterrato, provided they don't cancel the stage of course. You can never know in these times.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: TRIAL FOR GIRO ANALYSIS

Stage 21: Torino – Milano 178 kms

Start time: 12:30, May 31st

Analysis:
Almost forgot... there's stage 21!
Well... it's flat. You know the typical Tour final stage? Yeah, just like that. Only difference is that Paris is arguably prettier than Milano. The final circuit is very short (5.4 kms) and will be repeated 8 times.

Expectations:
Pictures of the Maglia Rosa riding with a glass of Spumante, shortly followed by a bunch sprint... and then the trophy.

 

[Carols]

Bless you for this Excellent work. I rely on your Giro Route Posting to plan my life for 3 weeks. Thanks!!! I will review it in depth later.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Thanks a lot Eshnar. Not yet read everything but looks good as usual

 

[May0maniac]

I don't think that we'll se fireworks on stage 19, everyone will try to save energy for stage 20, but I like the length of the stage. Stage 18 could be even better with a few hills before Monte Ologno and I think we'd all love to see Monte Padrio before the Mortirolo/Aprica combo.
There is one thing that really bothers me, no climbs before Finestre, for for god's sake use Moncenisio, it's right there before Fineste!