- Aug 4, 2010
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I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
edit: Trofimov went from 2.20 to 1.61 with h2h Landa (past 2 hours), hillarious
Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
edit: Trofimov went from 2.20 to 1.61 with h2h Landa (past 2 hours), hillarious
- Apr 12, 2015
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My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
The bookies have predicted almost every stage wrong.ILovecycling said:Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
I hope kiriyenka wins. Not that I like sky. Because I don't. Not after 2012. But kiriyenka never wins anything. He never gets on the wttc podium and he works his backside off constantly. And he is a ROCK at the front of the peloton.Vasil to win. Uran to finish second.
- Jul 21, 2012
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I could be wrong but I don't think bookies are actually predicting what's going to happen, they just do whatever the market thinks. For instance on tomorrows stage there is probably a lot of skybot money being placed on Porte, hence why the odds on him is laughably low.
Velolover2 said:The bookies have predicted almost every stage wrong.ILovecycling said:Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
I could be wrong but I don't think bookies are actually predicting what's going to happen, they just do whatever the market thinks. For instance on tomorrows stage there is probably a lot of skybot money being placed on Porte, hence why the odds on him is laughably low.
- Aug 4, 2010
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better for us, unbiased ( ) fans.
yep, you are right.the sceptic said:Velolover2 said:The bookies have predicted almost every stage wrong.ILovecycling said:Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
I could be wrong but I don't think bookies are actually predicting what's going to happen, they just do whatever the market thinks. For instance on tomorrows stage there is probably a lot of skybot money being placed on Porte, hence why the odds on him is laughably low.
better for us, unbiased (
) fans.
- Aug 31, 2012
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They do that (adjusting odds in response to exposure) but there are also exchanges now, such as betfair leading to market pressures that are such that the odds have predicted very well across many sports for years.
In particular, there is no publicly available predictor that achieves better calibration (events with odds that give an implied probability of x% happen about x% of the time) and discrimination (picking the right outcome) for the big sports.
Of course, if not a lot of people gamble the odds aren't particularly accurate. They tend to only be good of a lot of money is being bet. So for individual stages where this is no the case, I urge anyone who fancies himself a better predictor than the laughable markets to bet regularly. If you are truly better, by the law of large numbers, you'll make money.
the sceptic said:Velolover2 said:The bookies have predicted almost every stage wrong.ILovecycling said:Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
I could be wrong but I don't think bookies are actually predicting what's going to happen, they just do whatever the market thinks. For instance on tomorrows stage there is probably a lot of skybot money being placed on Porte, hence why the odds on him is laughably low.
They do that (adjusting odds in response to exposure) but there are also exchanges now, such as betfair leading to market pressures that are such that the odds have predicted very well across many sports for years.
In particular, there is no publicly available predictor that achieves better calibration (events with odds that give an implied probability of x% happen about x% of the time) and discrimination (picking the right outcome) for the big sports.
Of course, if not a lot of people gamble the odds aren't particularly accurate. They tend to only be good of a lot of money is being bet. So for individual stages where this is no the case, I urge anyone who fancies himself a better predictor than the laughable markets to bet regularly. If you are truly better, by the law of large numbers, you'll make money.
- Apr 12, 2015
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Ah, that makes sense.
the sceptic said:Velolover2 said:The bookies have predicted almost every stage wrong.ILovecycling said:Alberto @8/1 now, if you want.the sceptic said:
I took Rigo.Beaten up Porte @3/1,bookies are seriously fvcked up in the head lol
My guess is that they have not gone into the details of the profile. Just taken a brief look. I remember last year were they thought Sagan was going to win San Sebastian on a Murito-finish. They are worthless.
I could be wrong but I don't think bookies are actually predicting what's going to happen, they just do whatever the market thinks. For instance on tomorrows stage there is probably a lot of skybot money being placed on Porte, hence why the odds on him is laughably low.
Ah, that makes sense.
- Jun 14, 2010
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Good lord, you know the tt is brutal when the last rider has departed by 15.43 cet. That's like an hour before the average person tunes into the coverageILovecycling said:
- May 15, 2011
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Hitch, what is your prediction for tomorrow?
I posted something similar earlierThe Hitch said:
Hitch, what is your prediction for tomorrow?
- Aug 31, 2012
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- Aug 29, 2013
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- Jun 14, 2010
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I'll see how I feel in the morning, but right now, my gut tells me Contador will win or at least beat all the gc riders. Forget all the "contador is good at short tts, Contador is crap at long tts, he's x at x tt's", with Contador imo its all about strength. When he's on good form he does well in tts, when he's on bad form he flops.
TT's aren't pure science anyway, and you can't just predict them based on previous tt results like some people try.
And the stage is about strength. Its been a very hard Giro. A lot of riders very tired. Especially gc riders. TT is the race against truth. You can't do a great one if you are too tired. If Contador is the freshest in the race, as most think he is, he has a great chance to win. The hills aren't steep but they are hard enough, to help him a little too.
He will want to stamp his authority on the race. The second weekend is always when he does this (Plateau de Beile, Verbier, Gardeccia, La Farrapona). Even more here since he wants an easier last week. 1 and a half hours of pain and be done with it.
Also if Bertie is serious about Giro-Tour double, I think that means he is super strong like back in 2009. 09 Contador wins this tt easily, maybe by 2 minutes. He won't be on top top strength since he needs to save a little for the Tour, but imo he has enough.
On vera.
LaFlorecita said:I posted something similar earlierThe Hitch said:
I'll see how I feel in the morning, but right now, my gut tells me Contador will win or at least beat all the gc riders. Forget all the "contador is good at short tts, Contador is crap at long tts, he's x at x tt's", with Contador imo its all about strength. When he's on good form he does well in tts, when he's on bad form he flops.
TT's aren't pure science anyway, and you can't just predict them based on previous tt results like some people try.
And the stage is about strength. Its been a very hard Giro. A lot of riders very tired. Especially gc riders. TT is the race against truth. You can't do a great one if you are too tired. If Contador is the freshest in the race, as most think he is, he has a great chance to win. The hills aren't steep but they are hard enough, to help him a little too.
He will want to stamp his authority on the race. The second weekend is always when he does this (Plateau de Beile, Verbier, Gardeccia, La Farrapona). Even more here since he wants an easier last week. 1 and a half hours of pain and be done with it.
Also if Bertie is serious about Giro-Tour double, I think that means he is super strong like back in 2009. 09 Contador wins this tt easily, maybe by 2 minutes. He won't be on top top strength since he needs to save a little for the Tour, but imo he has enough.
On vera.
- Jan 27, 2012
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The Barb said:
To think that these two boys are mentioned as favorites for a long ITT in a GT... oh well.
- Aug 4, 2010
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btw you mentioned Landa, how do you think he'll ride? (I think he didnt train tt like Aru) Maybe a top30?
Yeah,I was a bit confusedThe Hitch said:Good lord, you know the tt is brutal when the last rider has departed by 15.43 cet. That's like an hour before the average person tunes into the coverageILovecycling said:
btw you mentioned Landa, how do you think he'll ride? (I think he didnt train tt like Aru) Maybe a top30?
Although with it raining all day it could go to someone who wants to take risks on those descents to put in time on the favourites who will take them easier.
So riders that go early who don't have a leader to ride for. Who knows what the rain will do. Will it get heavier later on? Will the wind be more favourable to the earlier riders? Lots of variables but it will suit the following riders.
Hepburn, Durbridge, Gretsch etc. Gretsch finished 6th in the long TDF time trial a few years ago. Durbridge finished around the same in the long Giro time trial 2 years ago. Hepburn isn't proven over this distance, but Durbridge and Gretsch are.
So riders that go early who don't have a leader to ride for. Who knows what the rain will do. Will it get heavier later on? Will the wind be more favourable to the earlier riders? Lots of variables but it will suit the following riders.
Hepburn, Durbridge, Gretsch etc. Gretsch finished 6th in the long TDF time trial a few years ago. Durbridge finished around the same in the long Giro time trial 2 years ago. Hepburn isn't proven over this distance, but Durbridge and Gretsch are.
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